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Strange weather 2018

Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sat 03 Mar 2018, 18:34:24

now that temperatures have stayed above freezing for the last day or so, most of the shallower snow has already gone, we were not that badly affected and all roads are now clear (except for remote bóithríní )
Ronald Coase, Nobel Economic Sciences, said in 1991 “If we torture the data long enough, it will confess.”
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 19 Mar 2018, 21:20:12

“Damage has been reported in Cullman, Alabama, after a severe thunderstorm brought hail as large as baseballs. Live storm reports: (link: http://ow.ly/ZWJD30j2EpY )”
https://twitter.com/breakingweather/sta ... 7817035776

“[7:36 PM CDT] A pair of extremely dangerous tornadic supercells are moving through parts of #ALwx east of Cullman. Both show radar features seen only in the strongest/most dangerous of storms. HD radar imagery: (link: https://weather.us/radar-us/marshall/re ... 0028z.html )”
https://twitter.com/WeatherdotUS/status ... 3894478848
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 31 Mar 2018, 10:39:33

https://watchers.news/2018/03/30/deadly ... and-india/

Deadly storms, massive hail hit parts of Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and India

At least 8 people were killed and over 100 injured as massive storms dumped heavy rain and large hail on parts of Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan and India on March 30, 2018. Crops and hundreds of homes were badly damaged in Bangladesh and in Rautahat area in Nepal.

Two people died in Rangpur division while one in Dinajpur division in Bangladesh, according to Department of Disaster Management control room officer Kamrun Nahar.
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 08 Apr 2018, 13:53:04

Here on Guadeloupe we took a walk up a small stream bed. One of the things I noticed was how the stream bed was strewn with good sized boulders. Strewn is not the right word because that does not begin to convey the size of these rocks. The largest were up to 15 to 20 FEET in diameter. Within the one mile we travelled there were hundreds of them, perhaps thousands over 10’ diameter.

The production of the boulders is no mystery, they are everywhere, the result of the volcanic origin of this island. But to find so many in the stream bed was interesting. And they had not simply washed down into the stream, they had been carried down the stream by the force of water. Some of them were standing proud, alone.

We also picked up some plastic bottles that were some 6 or 8 feet above the bottom of the valley, and I could see occasional debris a few feet up.

So I stood there taking this all in, first trying to imagine how much water, how much rain, was required to fill the valley high enough to deposit the bottles. That’s a whole lotta rain, yet it must have occurred in the last few years.

Then I looked at those boulders and tried to imagine what amount of rain was required to move them. It must have been a truly stupendous amount of rain. How long had they set there? 10, 100, 1,000 years?

What we see as startling and unbelievable meteorological events may not be all that unusual in longer time scales. We tend to think of 100years as a very long time, it’s not. I think it’s pretty difficult to discern the hand of cc in any sngular meteorological event. It’s only in the fullness of time, centuries, that they will reach full undeniable expression.

This is not to dispute climate change but to say the changes are, so far, pretty small. It’s too easy to attribute this or that to cc and then the deniers use it to our disadvantage. When the effects do manifest themselves it will be sublime. Anslow but steady and unrelenting progress, perhaps marked with a few abrupt state changes, for variety.
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 08 Apr 2018, 14:27:37

Deforestation,erosion, grazing and finally landslides. We have lived with these disturbances here in Northcoast since the devastation of the redwood ecosystem. Rinse and repeat. Ever the same until we exhaust the diesel to destroy our precious ecosystems
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 08 Apr 2018, 14:33:59

An intact forest has no landslides. Giant ancient trees have roots that go down a hundred feet. They wrap around and lock up giant boulders.
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 08 Apr 2018, 22:20:10

Newfie wrote:Here on Guadeloupe we took a walk up a small stream bed. One of the things I noticed was how the stream bed was strewn with good sized boulders. Strewn is not the right word because that does not begin to convey the size of these rocks. The largest were up to 15 to 20 FEET in diameter. Within the one mile we travelled there were hundreds of them, perhaps thousands over 10’ diameter.

The production of the boulders is no mystery, they are everywhere, the result of the volcanic origin of this island. But to find so many in the stream bed was interesting. And they had not simply washed down into the stream, they had been carried down the stream by the force of water. Some of them were standing proud, alone.

...

Then I looked at those boulders and tried to imagine what amount of rain was required to move them. It must have been a truly stupendous amount of rain. How long had they set there? 10, 100, 1,000 years?

Maybe over 10,000 years?

If glaciation covered about all of North America during the last ice age maximum, the meltwater effect could have been really intense.

"How the Earth Was Made", a series on geology, talked about changes from ice ages, including leaving huge stones in improbable places, etc.

Or not. I recall looking at the KY river as a kid, and the limestone cliffs towering overhead. Then as an adult, I remember hiking on some land near those cliffs and looking and sure enough, finding an abundance of fossils from small aquatic life.

The water is now hundreds of feet below that level, but it seems to me that must have been some kind of sea at that time to deposit all those aquatic fossils hundreds of feet from the bank of the river, and hundreds of feet above the water level. Such seas may have existed millions of years ago.

Due to our short lifespans, we tend to think of the earth's structure as solid and permanent. Over the course of many millions of years, nothing could be further from the truth.
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 09 Apr 2018, 06:55:51

I get your point but I don’t think the glaciers reached Guadeloupe.
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 09 Apr 2018, 14:03:57

pstarr wrote:An intact forest has no landslides. Giant ancient trees have roots that go down a hundred feet. They wrap around and lock up giant boulders.
You smoking the good stuff again?
Most tree roots are in the top eighteen inches of the soil where the nutrients are. Even the giant red woods are in the top six feet of the soil.
Obviously you have never removed any stumps.
http://sunnyfortuna.com/explore/redwoods_and_water.htm
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 09 Apr 2018, 15:17:49

Thanks, vt. That claim seemed a bit more extreme than evidence warrants.

Meanwhile, it's been anomalously cold here in the north country for the last week:

Contour map of how cold we have been in the last week. Worst in the nrn plains and upper Midwest. 20F+ below average for a week. That is way out on the temperature distribution. #aprilcold #midwest


https://twitter.com/dennistodey/status/ ... 3574295552
Image below.

Image

And in Michigan:
An unofficial new state record low has been broken for the month of April with temperatures bottoming out at -24 degrees. Winter hanging on strong.


https://twitter.com/weatheroptics/statu ... 4975590401

And the (quite reliable) European models show a freezing rain storm that could last up to four days stretching from MN to NY starting ~Friday...if it plays out, at least the hardest hit parts, probably parts of Michigan and Wisconsin, will be without power.
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 09 Apr 2018, 20:20:10

I've been getting a chunk of that here as well. Six inches of snow and night temps down in the teens and day time highs below forty. I had to add to the wood pile today as I only had enough for a day or two more.
People are saying Mother Nature is bipolar and has gone off her meds.
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 09 Apr 2018, 21:27:06

"People are saying Mother Nature is bipolar and has gone off her meds."

I think that about says it...and the bi-poles may be shifting around a bit as well! 8O
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 10 Apr 2018, 07:04:42

Snow blankets the ground outside my windows, quite unusual for April 10th. It has been anomalously cold for three weeks now.
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 10 Apr 2018, 16:57:42

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 70,-24.521

Click the link and look at the big jet stream southern excursion.

Such instability is made worse by the low temperature differential between the equator and poles.
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 10 Apr 2018, 18:53:49

Snowing here tonight. Not much but it could quite and turn into spring anytime and nobody around here would have a word of complaint.
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 12 Apr 2018, 15:35:36

vtsnowedin wrote:Snowing here tonight. Not much but it could quite and turn into spring anytime and nobody around here would have a word of complaint.

Ah, after two nights in a row of measurable April snow (highly unusual) and more nights of freezing temps following the snows, we're now seeing the balmy weather often associated with much of April.

Looking at a national weather forecast map, it looks generally, like roughly south of Chicago, things will be looking much more seasonal for awhile -- again, generally. North of Chicago-ish, it looks more variable. -15 Sunday night for International Falls, MN, for example, is about as cold as it ever gets here in Central KY.
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 14 Apr 2018, 16:46:44

Blizzard conditions here now. Minneapolis-StPaul and pretty much everything to our south and west in the state are shut down. Snow is falling at an inch or two an hour. Heavy winds, gusting up to 40+pmh. Zero visibility in many areas, especially in the country. It's being called 'historic' but I haven't tracked down any actual records on that. The international airport is shut down...no flights in or out today. All major roads including international highways are closed in SW Minnesota.

The highway patrol just came on to announce that they would not rescue anyone who was foolish enough to travel in this mess.

This is not the mid-April I was hoping for! :cry: :) 8O

As the snow started here last night, I saw lightening and heard thunder. There have been other reports of 'snow thunderstorms' in the area today...not unprecedented, but not super-common, either...around here, anyway.
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby Whitefang » Sat 14 Apr 2018, 18:02:08

We had a blizzard on my Bday, St Patricks.....never happened before in my lifetime, only turned 47 so just a few decades as far as I can recal. Now summertime, 25 degrees Celcius next week.....wacky weather.
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