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Strange weather 2018

Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby GHung » Sat 24 Feb 2018, 09:59:12

These wild unseasonal swings in temperature not only disrupt agriculture, it disrupts the mast and much of the wild food supply can fail; acorns, hickory nuts, etc. that the wildlife depends on. We've had several years recently when the mast was stunted or failed entirely. One sign we have here is that the wild swine will come down out of the mountains more often and trash the pastures, rooting for sustenance. I keep a pig trap ready in the corner of one of my pastures to catch and harvest these wild pigs in years like this. Nasty cross between domestic pigs and Russian Razorbacks.
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby jedrider » Sat 24 Feb 2018, 12:22:52

GHung wrote:These wild unseasonal swings in temperature not only disrupt agriculture, it disrupts the mast and much of the wild food supply can fail; acorns, hickory nuts, etc. that the wildlife depends on. We've had several years recently when the mast was stunted or failed entirely. One sign we have here is that the wild swine will come down out of the mountains more often and trash the pastures, rooting for sustenance. I keep a pig trap ready in the corner of one of my pastures to catch and harvest these wild pigs in years like this. Nasty cross between domestic pigs and Russian Razorbacks.


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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 24 Feb 2018, 12:51:39

Good point, GHung.

Is vtsnowedin still around on these threads? It'd be nice to hear his take on these record-breaking temps up there...how are people, soils, plant, animals...reacting...
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 24 Feb 2018, 13:21:48

They are moving North into SW PA. The PA Game Commission makes no bones about it. There is no place for wild boars in Pennsylvania.” The basic message is “shoot ‘em, wherever, whenever”.
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 24 Feb 2018, 14:48:55

Newf, what kind of challenges does this weather pose for you as a sailor? I am pretty much a total ignoramus when it comes to open-sea sailing.

I'm actually rather sympathetic to hunting out disruptive introduced species like feral pigs, by the way. Though I haven't researched whether this approach has ever actually solved the problems associated with such 'invasive exotics.'
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 24 Feb 2018, 19:35:52

Depending upon many, many factories annagressive kill campaign can slow or stop an invasion. By no means certain.

Wind patterns were first collected from sailing ships by Murray after the civil war. They were collected from ships logs and observations. They were imperfect as they only touched on sailing routes, none the less they were extremely valuable and are published to this day in small scale charts, on a monthly basis, for all the worlds major oceans.

But they represent averages and percentages for a one degree rectangle. There’s a 47% chance the wind will blow from the ENE during the month of July with a 7% chance of gales. The new disturbed Jet Stream in the Northern Hemisphere disturbed these odds. You may find something very different.

It goes back to the analogy of substituting a dude for an ace in a deck of cards. As the disruptions deepen the substitutions become more pronounced.

More simply, for example, in the Bahamas winter one could reasonably expect a Norther cold front once a week which would disrupt the prevailing Easterlies so that the winds would, over a course of about 48 hours, clock around 360 degrees providing a window to move Easterly. The last few years this pattern is disrupted and folks can wait weeks looking for a manageable window.

OR, as is appearing to occur this week to our benefit, predictions are for an unusually long spell when the trades will be week. This may work to our benefit to make a difficult passage from Luperon to PR. Or not. Predictions over 48 hours are more crystal ball gazing than science.
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 24 Feb 2018, 22:15:45

Wow, thanks.

I hadn't really thought a lot about how much sailing would be disrupted, being quite a landlubber myself But it makes sense that it would. Does satellite data make up for dealing with some of that unpredictability?
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 25 Feb 2018, 07:10:21

No, it’s unpredictable.

At this point it’s an I convienced. How much greater the uncertainty and degree of change will become is an open question.

Just in general the wind blows much stronger off shore than on land. What appear to be small changes in wind speed and direction are significant to sailboats.
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Ireland in Lockdown!

Unread postby dolanbaker » Wed 28 Feb 2018, 18:40:45

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2018/02 ... ther-snow/

A Status Red snow and ice warning has been put into effect for all counties with blizzard conditions expected from early on Thursday afternoon.

The warning came into effect at 11pm Wednesday evening and will remain in place until 3pm on Friday.

The storm is expected to spread northwards across the country from Thursday afternoon, bringing heavy snow and strong easterly winds.

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar has called on people to heed public safety warnings about the blizzard conditions that are expected.

Speaking at a news conference with the National Emergency Coordination Group this evening, Mr Varadkar said we are facing extremely hazardous conditions with exceptional blizzards likely.

He warned people to be safe at home by 4pm on Thursday.

He also said that employers must access if it is safe for people to turn up for work.

Mr Varadkar said conditions like this have not been experienced in Ireland since 1982.


Very severe weather by Irish standards, probably a normal day in Siberia.
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 28 Feb 2018, 19:00:54

While here in upstate NY reached 60 degrees today. Nice

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/haver ... 2975?day=1
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 01 Mar 2018, 20:29:30

NO let up in the extreme cold in Europe at the moment, several deaths already attributed to the extreme weather and several more days yet before "normal" weather resumes.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-43251315

Large parts of Europe are enduring another night of freezing conditions as a Siberian weather system continues to bring chaos.

Blizzards and heavy snowfall have closed roads, rail services and schools and forced the cancellations of hundreds of flights.

The unusually cold spell is being felt as far south as the Mediterranean.

The number of weather-related deaths rose to as many as 55 with 21 victims in Poland, most of them rough sleepers.

It triggered a warning from the World Health Organization that the poor, the homeless and migrants would be hardest hit by the big freeze.

"Those most at risk of cold-related illness include elderly people, children, and people who have chronic diseases or physical or mental limitations," it said as a statement.
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Snow, ice and driving winds causing severe disruption

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 02 Mar 2018, 09:55:04

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-43251824

Western Europe is still experiencing extremely cold weather at the moment.

Flights and trains have been cancelled and thousands of schools shut as sub-zero conditions continue across the UK.

Rail networks including Southeastern, SouthWestern and ScotRail have told people not to travel on their routes.

The Met Office's red warning has been lifted but flood warnings remain in place in the south-west and north-east of England.

Further snow is expected on Friday and the Army has helped free stranded motorists.

Major incidents have been declared in Wiltshire, Hampshire and Avon and Somerset, as blizzards brought roads to a standstill.

The M62 near Manchester is closed "indefinitely" while the military helps police free stranded motorists.

In addition to advising passengers not to travel SouthWestern Railway has announced that it will be shutting its services completely by 20:00 GMT on Friday.

Prime Minister Theresa May has thanked everyone "going the extra mile".

There are yellow weather warnings for snow, ice and wind in place across the UK throughout Friday, with a Scottish warning in force until 23:55 GMT on Monday, but there are no amber alerts currently in place.
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby GHung » Fri 02 Mar 2018, 10:09:27

onlooker wrote:While here in upstate NY reached 60 degrees today. Nice

https://www.accuweather.com/en/us/haver ... 2975?day=1


Not for long:

National Weather Service Albany NY
923 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

NYZ032-033-038>040-042-082-022230-
/O.CON.KALY.WS.W.0007.000000T0000Z-180303T0800Z/
Northern Herkimer-Hamilton-Southern Herkimer-Southern Fulton-
Montgomery-Northern Warren-Northern Fulton-
Including the cities of Big Moose, Eagle Bay, McKeever,
Old Forge, Atwell, Nobleboro, Northwood, Long Lake, Sabattis,
Hoffmeister, Wells, Ilion, Herkimer, Little Falls, Mohawk,
Frankfort, Dolgeville, Gloversville, Johnstown, Amsterdam,
Bolton Landing, Johnsburg, North Creek, North River, Warrensburg,
Hague, and Caroga Lake
923 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow. Additional snow accumulations of 3 to 6
inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches, are expected.
Total snow accumulations of 8 to 16 inches, with localized
amounts up to 18 inches south of the Mohawk River, are expected.

* WHERE...For the southern Adirondacks and the western and central
Mohawk Valley of east central New York.

* WHEN...Until 3 AM EST Saturday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
including during the afternoon commute. Some isolated power
outages due to falling lines due to the wet snow are possible.
Be prepared for significant reductions in visibility at times.
Snowfall rates may approach 1 to 3 inches an hour at times,
especially this morning.


Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
847 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

NYZ006>008-022200-
/O.CON.KBUF.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-180303T0300Z/
Oswego-Jefferson-Lewis-
Including the cities of Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville
847 AM EST Fri Mar 2 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy snow. Additional snow accumulations of 4 to 8
inches are expected.

* WHERE...The Eastern Lake Ontario Region.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions,
including during the morning commute. Be prepared for
significant reductions in visibility at times. The wet, heavy
snow and gusty winds may result in tree limbs coming down and
scattered power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Widespread accumulating snow will create dangerous travel
conditions.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.


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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 02 Mar 2018, 13:34:56

I see AMTRAK has suspended service on the entire NE Corridor. Back in the day effected parts of the system would be shut down due to high wind or extreme temperatures. High wind unstabilizes the catenary wire; excessive cold can cause the wire to break or rail to pull apart. Excessive high can cause wire sag or rail to buckle. Snow obviously has its issues.

But I’ve never heard of the entire system being shut before.

Presumably that would also effect to commuter agencies that run in Amtrak rail.
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 02 Mar 2018, 14:39:15

The extreme weather warnings & shutdowns are a new phenomenon that have started to become increasingly common in the past couple of years.
We've gone from "soldier on" to "standby and await further orders", as far as dealing with extreme weather events.
Ireland has been in virtual lockdown for much of yesterday and this morning with almost all workplaces shut, even those in locations that have not had the extreme weather.

It has proven to reduce the risk to life though, with far fewer car crashes on snowy/icy motorways and other roads.
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 02 Mar 2018, 14:52:07

And yet some patterns are emerging like this intrusion of the polar vortex into lower latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere during winters as concurrently the Arctic regions are experiencing highly anomalous warming in the winter.
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby GASMON » Fri 02 Mar 2018, 15:27:06

As Dolanbaker says, a bit of cold weather (I've known far worse) and the whole of the UK shuts down. It's cold and windy here, but very little snow up to now. Different just 10 miles away in the Pennine hills. Chaos there, all roads blocked across to Yorkshire, including the M62 Motorway - first time that has shut for well over 20 years.

Lots of today's weather related news & photos here. Some interesting photos !!

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article ... sions.html

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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby dolanbaker » Fri 02 Mar 2018, 15:43:23

Meanwhile looters are at "work" in Dublin
https://mobile.twitter.com/46Flynn/stat ... 45/video/1
using an improvised getaway vehicle.
https://twitter.com/wrecked_aingeal/sta ... 66080?s=19
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 02 Mar 2018, 15:49:06

onlooker wrote:And yet some patterns are emerging like this intrusion of the polar vortex into lower latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere during winters as concurrently the Arctic regions are experiencing highly anomalous warming in the winter.


This has all happened before. They just used different words to describe it; Alberta Clipper or whatever.

What’s new is the general destabilization of the jet stream which then produce chaotic action of the jet stream. There is no pattern to it, it’s more of an increased chaos. If there was a pattern we could plan and predict.
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Re: Strange weather 2018

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 03 Mar 2018, 13:50:20

This article coincides with the accounts of Dolan of the deep chill affecting Europe at this time
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/weather/ ... li=BBnbcA1
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