Stock Market Crash! (merged)

[Eli]

Falcon the gist of it is that we have retraced now down to the August lows. Which is a major support level.

Intel came out and said they are going to miss earnings this very bad because they were the last great hope of all the people who were saying that international business would still save us. There were lots of people saying that China would decouple from the US and sail on through this mess. A large portion of Intel's business is overseas so this puts a hole in those peoples boat.

There is a chance that things could collapse tomorrow but it is not a lock. TPTB will most likely do something the question is what and will it work?

[Iaato]

Great summaries, Short and Steam. Can I add one more summary graph?



I am suffering from a sense of anomie here. Maybe it's just the dark and cold of winter, but there's a strong intuitive sense that we're crumbling (in addition to the rational sources of fear that Steam Cannon laid out so nicely). I'm picking up a lot of fearful signals; the fear is palpable to me. Look how long we've been going upwards in the graph above. What's that old book title? "I been down so long it seems like up." Well, we've been up so long that anything that is not exponentially upward is going to be one heck of a shock.

I feel prepared, and aware, and I'm still awestruck by this economic collapse. I can't take my eyes off of it. What will happen to those who don't see it coming? I think we're getting ready to see some really bad behavior. There was talk of some trader who didn't get a good bonus for Christmas spreading poop on the 19th floor of Merill Lynch. Yes, just like a monkey. And news of people in foreclosed houses doing the same, both literally and figuratively. And we're just getting warmed up. Someone should start another thread about bad behavior over in the Psych forum. There's a lot of people with personality disorders in this country who are going to be rattling right off their rails with this. People just aren't going to get it that we can't go up forever.

[jasonraymondson]

Falcon the gist of it is that we have retraced now down to the August lows. Which is a major support level.

Intel came out and said they are going to miss earnings this very bad because they were the last great hope of all the people who were saying that international business would still save us. There were lots of people saying that China would decouple from the US and sail on through this mess. A large portion of Intel's business is overseas so this puts a hole in those peoples boat.

There is a chance that things could collapse tomorrow but it is not a lock. TPTB will most likely do something the question is what and will it work?

The Video is Dead


Google Search of all mentions of stock market crash.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&lr=& ... 2&as_qdr=d


For about 33 minutes like usual Eli... Right now these fuckers know they are drowning and are pulling every little temporary trick they can, till they can come up with something better.

As I said earlier. Cry Havoc and let slip the dogs of war


Also notice google says Results 1 - 10 of about 15,600 over the past 24 hours yet only displays 2 pages of results..

[Flowerr]

Who knows what they will do, depends on what they decided.

[mercurygirl]

They will cut again.

[Eli]

Most likely, that is what they did before.

But there is a growing risk that cutting will not work.

[Atlantean_Relic]

Wee bit alarmist, no?

[lawnchair]

A .4% decline in December retail sales over last year is one thing. A .4% + not keeping up with whatever the real inflation rate was last year... that's harsh. Do you want to hazard a guess what the inflation number really is? Stuff I buy ranges from 10% annual inflation (bread, gasoline, health insurance) to 2-3% (cars, electricity).

As for Intel... I'm not shocked. Microsoft's Vista thud surely didn't help sales. I'm not the only person figuring out that their five year old computer handles pretty much what the web can throw at it today... whether that means staying with 2000/XP or installing Ubuntu. Other items for XmasOrgy2007? A large percentage of people will never, ever give a flip about High Definition TVs or High Definition video media formats. Sure, they'll eventually get something a little better when their old kid's bedroom Philco finally dies... but for now? Schlock is schlock on any TV.

As for where the money goes? Well, a little goes overseas (the Euro is very close to $1.50 now). But, where did this 'money' come from? Nowhere, more or less. Ex nihilo ad nihilo. The 'money' disappears, but someone has more 'stuff' (property, gold) at the end of the round.

[Eli]

No, not really.

Take a look at the Asian markets right now the Nikkei is down 144 and the Hang Sen is down a 1000 points.

The chance of a bigger drop than today is only abut 25% according to the video.

And seeing how the largest banks in the US now are begging for billions in cash from the Arabs and anyone else, just so they can stay afloat. I wouldn't call it being alarmist.

Two of the biggest Banks in the world borrow 24 billion dollars? That ain't good.

[KillTheHumans]

unless Bendover Ben cuts the snot out of rates!

http://tickervideo.org/eod-0115/eod-0115.html

Any more validity to this Roc post than the ones you did back in the spring when you predicted the Gorge....6 months ago?

[Tyler_JC]

Roccman, if this doesn't happen tomorrow, what's the damage on your part? I'm just sort of tired of these, "Stock crash imminent, possibly in 32 minutes!" posts, they're getting so redundant. This isn't meant to be an attack on you personally, you're just putting information forward, but I'm just sort of getting tired of them.

Any chance we have a penalty system? (ie, if your prediction is a "crash" or "meltdown" and a date is chosen and the event doesn't occur, can your avatar be changed to "I AM'S DUMB" or something of the sort for at least a few days)

Roccman doesn't use too many specifics so it's difficult to call him on it.

But when the market doesn't crash tomorrow, I'll add this thread to my signature line.

[FreakOil]

The Central Banks are in a pickle because cutting the lending rate hasn't increased loans from commercial banks, like it's supposed to, so there's been no increase in business activity. I could be wrong about this.

Wasn't there a thread about this based on an article from a U.K. newspaper?

[firestarter]

Roccman, if this doesn't happen tomorrow, what's the damage on your part? I'm just sort of tired of these, "Stock crash imminent, possibly in 32 minutes!" posts, they're getting so redundant. This isn't meant to be an attack on you personally, you're just putting information forward, but I'm just sort of getting tired of them.

Any chance we have a penalty system? (ie, if your prediction is a "crash" or "meltdown" and a date is chosen and the event doesn't occur, can your avatar be changed to "I AM'S DUMB" or something of the sort for at least a few days)

Roccman doesn't use too many specifics so it's difficult to call him on it.

But when the market doesn't crash tomorrow, I'll add this thread to my signature line.

Denninger said in his technical video that there was a one in three chance of a crash tomorrow. He explains in detail why he thinks this is so. Click on roc's link and maybe you'll learn something, kiddo.

[Nicholai]

Click on roc's link and maybe you'll learn something, kiddo.

There's no need to patronize, I just want to make sure that people are held accountable, especially under such grave predictions.

[SD_Scott]

The nikkei has really tanked in the last few months. It went from 18000 to 13700 today. Down 330 at this time.

[roccman]

Click on roc's link and maybe you'll learn something, kiddo.

There's no need to patronize, I just want to make sure that people are held accountable, especially under such grave predictions.

Ok Nicholia - what skin do you have in the game?

What if Karl is right. What if tomorrow the stock market crashes...what do you have in the game?

Or are you one that chucks rocks from the sideline ...

[Zardoz]

Define "crash".

[roccman]

Define "crash".

greater than 10%

[Ferretlover]

Vision, while you and da boys are shopping, would you pick up a 5,6 or 8 shot something for me?? lol

I could make a list if that would be easier!

[I_Like_Plants]

Aren't there trading limits that kick in if the market loses more than 5% or something like that, in a day?

I remember them closing the thing for a WEEK after 9-11 because it was losing tons of points daily.