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Spring is Springing - Happy Vernal Equinox

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Spring is Springing - Happy Vernal Equinox

Unread postby GHung » Wed 25 Mar 2015, 10:21:48

OK, this article isn't really about Spring, but at this solar-powered home, the Spring equinox (here in the northern hemisphere) is always a welcomed date; days longer than nights, etc.. Anyway, I always enjoy George Mobus' take on things:

Spring is Springing
Happy Vernal Equinox

At my age, every spring I get to witness is a happy event!

Would that I could say as much for the state of our world. The evidence for the accelerating advance of global warming and the consequences of climate change is mounting. In spite of the drastic cold that much of the Midwest and East experienced in the US this winter, the continent has had one of the warmest winters on record. We have certainly enjoyed the milder climate where I live. Not so much for those in the Southwest where drought is still a major problem.

The only good news (until you think about the causes!) is that CO2 emission levels were stable this last year — they didn't grow. But one of the reasons they didn't is that the amount of carbon being burned has not grown. And that is because, in spite of all the clap-trap statistics out of Washington and other capitals, the global economy has not grown. The amount of real economic work (i.e. building things) has not grown. This being true even though the price of oil has plummeted. And that is the real scary part.

To me the notion of the economy not growing would be a good thing if it were done on purpose, i.e. the world governments planned for and intentionally implemented non-growth oriented policies. That would mean that they would be taking into account the potential pain and suffering that might attend non-growth especially for the lower classes. They would invoke policies that made sure that distribution of what was being produced would be equitable. Instead, look what we have. The rich continue to get richer, not because they are producing more real economic value, but because they continue to steal from the rest of society, primarily through the banking systems (thank you Federal Reserve). And the poor and the so-called middle class are getting poorer in the bargain. A non-growing economy simply translates into fewer reasonably paying jobs. The biggest number of new jobs being created, by the way, are ironically in the food services industry (not particularly known for high wages) and that, doubly ironic, is because the people who are getting richer are eating out more! Let's hope they are giving good tips (Oh wait, I just heard something about a study on the generosity of wealthy people that showed that they were the stingiest tippers!!!)

Instead, the non-growth being experienced now (and by the way don't be sucked into the numbers China publishes either!) is a natural consequence of having reached the limits of what can be done with financial wheeling and dealing to hide the fact that our net free energy per capita has long since peaked and we are headed toward complete collapse of our civilization's capacity to support 7.5+ (and counting) billion people. We are not just looking at some kind of adjustment or even a resetting to a “somewhat” lower standard of living for those in the developed countries. Once the collapse starts in earnest it will be catastrophic. For example, we are already seeing a reduction in oil production from both the tar sands in Canada and the shale plays in the US as a result of low oil prices. That unconventional oil is simply too expensive to produce compared to the revenues it generates. The oil producers can only operate at a loss for so long before they fold. And because the financial system is so distorted and full of hot air, there really is no more capital to divert their way to keep them afloat. With so many consumers working at low paying jobs the level of demand needed to boost those gasoline prices, for example, is simply not there. So it is is likely the prices of oil and derivative products will remain too low for unconventional production to be profitable any time in the foreseeable future.

Catastrophes are strongly non-linear events, like avalanches and earthquakes. You can't necessarily predict when such an event will take place. And there are generally a lot of little events (clusters of small avalanches or earthquakes) here and there that portend, but do not provide information on when the big one is going to occur. And they are rapid. Once started, and with the right underlying conditions, they are like explosions. The first occurring parts entail later parts in an amplifying way. The only thing we can say with any certainty is that a major event WILL occur.

The underlying conditions in the case of civilization are several. Basically, as I have been writing about for years the single biggest factor underlying an economic collapse (and as a result a population collapse) is the amount of net energy available to do USEFUL work per capita. As long as that number is going up or is at least steady, everything will be OK. Ideally, it would be steady because 1) the population was not growing, and 2) neither was the extraction of energy and raw material resources. More ideally still would be this steady-state situation would have obtained at a far lower total population size than we have today. In fact, had the human population stabilized at an ecologically balanced size there would have been far less carbon being burned and more trees, etc. to absorb the CO2 that was put into the atmosphere by what was burned.

Which leads me to another underlying condition that has acted as the enabling factor in what has actually happened. Human beings are just not very wise at all. Collective human knowledge had to develop to a point where we could use our intelligence to manage our affairs properly. It is just now getting to that point. Unfortunately our inherent capacity for making veridical judgements — wisdom — or what I call sapience[1], has lagged behind from an evolutionary standpoint. And the better part of wisdom is to not venture forth boldly when knowledge of consequences is lacking. In other words we have been really clever but abysmally foolish. And now that we do know what the situation really is, it is probably too late to apply our intelligence in any meaningful way to correcting our earlier mistakes. Our lust for convenience and conquest over nature, while natural consequences of our biological mandate, have doomed us to this collapse. ......

more: http://questioneverything.typepad.com/q ... nging.html
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: Spring is Springing - Happy Vernal Equinox

Unread postby Paulo1 » Wed 25 Mar 2015, 13:13:29

Nailed it.

From our vantage point it seems to be slo-mo, simply because every day seems....well, everyday. I don't know about collapse, per se, but it sure seems like we are at limits in many many ways. Spring is sprung on the west coast. I wore shorts when I took my dog out for her walk in the rain and on the wet fields this morning. Too warm for rain gear. Woodshed is now back to six years heat supply. I bought some #1 cedar shingles yesterday for the price of #2s...because they needed hosing off. Replacing the last old window and dreaded vinyl siding with cedar....80% of the house is done. Like I said, slo-mo and everyday....until it isn't. Maybe. :)
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Re: Spring is Springing - Happy Vernal Equinox

Unread postby Revi » Thu 26 Mar 2015, 10:04:20

We are finally getting some sap here in Maine. Still 2 feet of snow on the ground, but it's melting a little. We call this spring! It's a lot better than February when it was 5 degrees on average for the whole month. I kept thinking that it would warm up, but it didn't. That's 5 farenheit. We tapped our maples back early March, but they just started running last week. C'est la vie! Here's a youtube movie about our little maple sugar shack. It was in the Maine International Film Festival and on public TV:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ISbkO-NKA9o
Deep in the mud and slime of things, even there, something sings.
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