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SOS from Zhitomyr

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby Quinny » Fri 27 Jun 2014, 14:43:46

Sounds terrible - wish you well

I thought that all Western Ukraine was being looked after OK by the new President?
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby radon1 » Fri 27 Jun 2014, 15:18:58

Garna Zhinka Ya - "I am a good wife" in Ukrainian, if I am not mistaken.

Wonder what made a person with such a good command of English land in a provincial bank office, where English is probably not spoken at all...

In any event, looks like you have enough tradable skills to find a good job in Europe, or Russia. May be living in suburbs, long travel to the office, but enough income to afford spending vacation in some funny international destinations couple times a year. Or in Crimea.

Wrote here months ago that the Maidan theater was to a great extent a cover for the coming economic disaster, a scapegoat of sorts to divert the public's attention.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 27 Jun 2014, 15:28:55

My sympathy's on your personal situation there Garna... Something to consider though, if you're in a tough spot food/heat/water wise... The lard on that pork is far more nutritionally valuable than the lean protein. I do say though, if you're paying 5 hrn for a kilo of flour, you're still getting a great deal. Best I get here in Texas is about $2 for 5 lbs, equal to about 10hrn for a kilo, so you're still paying far below the market rate most of us pay.

To PO folks... I've said it before, I'll say it again, Ukraine is a giant black hole for the destruction of value. Whoever 'wins' this lovely prize gets the check.

edit typo price/prize..
Last edited by AgentR11 on Fri 27 Jun 2014, 15:45:46, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 27 Jun 2014, 15:42:07

GARNA - I see where your President just signed the trade deal with the EU. Hopefully that might improve your situation. Unfortunately even if it does it will probably take a painfully long time to happen.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby Sixstrings » Fri 27 Jun 2014, 17:11:41

Welcome to the forum. If you'd like to post on another topic too, I'm sure people would be interested in hearing about your kitchen garden and maybe someone would have some advice or learn from what you're doing.

Anyway, it's nice to finally hear what a Ukrainian has to say. We've got Russians and Americans giving their opinions but nobody listens to Ukrainians.

GarnaZhinkaYa wrote:I work in Privat Bank office. In half a year my wages decreased from 5,000 hrn to 2,700. That was janitor's fee not long ago!


Is that a weekly salary, bi-weekly, or monthly? 2,700 hrn comes out to $216 US.

But my hubby's already hates eating cabbages and cucumbers every day. All in all we won't starve till winter.


Cabbage soup is actually pretty good, with some pepper. I can't remember how my mom used to make it but it was delicious (I think bacon grease or lard was involved somewhere :lol:).

Do you do any canning?

Garna, things are going to be hard in Ukraine for another five years probably. Probably very hard for a year or two. But they will get better over time. The more deals your country makes with Europe, the closer it gets to Poland and Germany, the better it will do. These very low costs of labor you have in Ukraine, and educated workers and low costs overall and now a pro West government, is going to attract investment into there.

So just remember that, once in the EU Ukraine will be getting the jobs over other places because Ukraine is the best place to invest.

There's going to be this period of "austerity" for a while and transition. But that's going on Crimea, too. Food prices there are up 100%. There are water problems. Many people working at banks in Crimea were just fired, so no job at all now and no income at all, after the Russian central bank took them all over.

Ukraine was going to have problems no matter what. Doing nothing, or going to the EU, or going to Russia.

Things will be very hard for a while, but they'll get brighter in Ukraine because there is nowhere to go but up and you're getting hooked into the EU now.

Trade deals with the EU, getting closer to Germany and Poland, and the US, is going to bring a lot of jobs in. You won't stay the poorest people in Europe anymore. Your living standards will get up there close to Poland (about the same as Russians).

So just remember that, there will be very hard times, but then a long period of growth. What you want to do is make it through the hard times.

I know some people in Poland work in Europe and send money back. They also just enjoy seeing places like Norway, heck I'd like to see Norway. :lol:

So you may have some options like that, in the future, working abroad or emigration. A lot of new options that you haven't had before. Like studying abroad, too.

I do wish you the best, and I think Europe and the US should have done more for Ukraine and should be doing more. All I can do is vote that way and be supportive of that.

The reason I care about Ukraine though is because of people like you, the human side of it, and this is why they protested in the Maidan. Nobody wants to live under dictators and oligarchs and just starve and go hungry. Of course Ukrainians look over the border to Poland and want to have what they have.

So now you've got that chance. If Russia will let you. And if the West backs you.

All Ukrainian officials sent their families abroad. Just common Ukrainians suffer privations. I fear to think how many people would die of famine. It will be another Holodomor. This time our own leaders carry it on.


I sure hope that doesn't happen. Remember, there are a lot of Ukrainians in Canada and the US (more Canada). Even in the US, we've got so many Ukrainian Americans that there is a Ukrainian American caucus in the Congress. I don't think famine would go unnoticed.

If you really think there will be famine and you are really worried about another Holdomor, then you'd do better to write a letter to a Ukrainian American congressional rep over here. Nobody will notice it on this forum.

Here's a link to the Ukrainian American caucus in our Congress (legislature):

http://ucca.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=50&Itemid=33&lang=en

You'd do best to write a letter to Marcy Kaptur, she's a Ukrainian American and leads that committee in Congress:

Marcy Kaptur
2186 Rayburn Building
Washington, DC 20515
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby Sixstrings » Fri 27 Jun 2014, 17:57:19

Quinny wrote:I thought that all Western Ukraine was being looked after OK by the new President?


I know you're supposedly a liberal and care about people, but I don't understand how you could make a snark at someone going hungry.

You don't even give a sh*t. That's a hungry person, worried about the future, and you can't summon up anything nice to say. She's not even pro West, she just sounds like most Ukrainians, just sick of the oligarchs and they know the EU is better but they're distrustful.

The West needed to do more. Quinn, where has YOUR prime minister been on this? There's been no British leadership, nothing, zip.

Canada's Stephen Harper has led. Britain hasn't. I don't even know if Brits have a PM anymore or who he is, I haven't heard anything about him in the news in so long.

EDIT: at least I offered something helpful. If there's going to be a famine in Ukraine and Ukrainians write Marcy Kaptur, those letters actually get read by staff and filter up. Americans give a sh*t if people are starving somewhere, especially Europe for crying out loud.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 27 Jun 2014, 18:24:30

Sixstrings wrote:I don't even know if Brits have a PM anymore or who he is, I haven't heard anything about him in the news in so long.


Are you completely tied to US media or something? Cameron's been making the hugest stink possible over the EU; particularly Juncker's ascendancy to the European Commission presidency. Cameron lost, but perhaps won in the same stroke. Sets up what may very well be a shocking vote on the UK leaving the EU completely.

So.. worrying much about Ukraine with that already on his plate; not to mention the huge ties between The City and Russian money... No, not in the UK's interest to be at the forefront of this little US adventure.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby Sixstrings » Fri 27 Jun 2014, 18:50:21

AgentR11 wrote:Are you completely tied to US media or something?


I haven't read british papers so much, in a while. All I know is you never hear about Cameron on international affairs, he doesn't bubble up in the zeitgeist, but I hear about Stephen Harper a lot.

Cameron's been making the hugest stink possible over the EU; particularly Juncker's ascendancy to the European Commission presidency. Cameron lost, but perhaps won in the same stroke. Sets up what may very well be a shocking vote on the UK leaving the EU completely.


I don't know what's going on with UK, but they do seem adrift. What's the fight with Europe about?

And I realize there are geopolitical reasons why UK actually would NOT want Ukraine in the EU. That's a bit crass, what happened to old Margaert Thatcher and standing up for democracy and the West.

If the Brits don't want a "special relationship" with us anymore, and they don't like Europe either, then what are they going to do up there on that island. Be a Russian playground? They seem adrift to me.

So.. worrying much about Ukraine with that already on his plate; not to mention the huge ties between The City and Russian money.


Yes, yes and yes. That's what's going on. We've lost them to the Russians. They can't stand up for democracy and the West anymore, too busy counting rubles in the City and London luxury flat market.

They get gas shutoff threats and barely make a peep about it. You've even got ordinary Brits, like Quinn, sounding so pro-Russian. Wtf has happened over there. They're with Russia like Australia's with China. They're bought and paid for and out of the loop now.

But ultimately, I don't even think Russian money is that big of a deal in the UK overall, it's just money in the RIGHT places.

And so Britain gets pushed around now and told what to do by Moscow. THIS IS WHAT we don't want happening to the United States, whether it's Moscow or Beijing.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby Sixstrings » Fri 27 Jun 2014, 19:12:51

This is turning into a Britain thread, but you know, I find it interesting how people in Australia and the UK think they're so independent-thinking yet really they're just matching up to the larger geopolitical drift their nation is going.

I've observed with Australia for years, Aussies are fun blokes but there's a really sharp anti-American bent you see in their media. Is that a coincidence? Or is it because the Chinese have so much control and influence?

And now I think it's happening with Britain. There is so much Russian money in the UK, it's not just the City and the flats it's also football clubs and all of that.

And so now you see it there too, an anti-American and even anti-West bent developing.

It's bizarre to me. I listen to Australians rail on about America yet they are silent on China, wtf.

And we've got Brits now, railing on about America, and backstopping Russia. Wtf.


I don't think they realize it but they've actually been influenced by the bent in their media, from top down. How else can you explain it. How is it that an Australian can find so much wrong about America but not a peep about China. And now Brits with the Russians.

If that continues, then it's actually a problem for the US -- a more solidly pro-Russian UK would mean Australia could go further to China and then they're gone as an ally, and tell us to pack up our bases there.

And then we'll have a world where Australia apologizes for China, and Britain for Russia, won't that be bizarre to watch. And an overall Russo-sino-anglo axis (of sorts :lol:), with dictatorship leading the way and these anglo "democracies" in orbit.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby Sixstrings » Fri 27 Jun 2014, 19:23:57

And let me tell ya something our gov should be doing, right now:

We need to subsidize and support trans oceanic nat gas exporting.

*Europe and Britain are too hooked on Russian gas*. It's not going to lead anywhere good, if Russia never changes, and Russia holds sway over Britain and Europe.

Ronald Reagan knew this was a threat and prevented pipelines in the first place. I'm not against Russians selling gas, it's just that there needs to be an AMERICAN COMPETITOR in the mix over in Europe so it's not just Russia keeping the heat on.

If Russia has power over whether people freeze to death or not, then that's just too much control, that energy market needs competition.

We need to be in that market. Even if it's just a 10 or 20% market share, that would be a check on Russia, and a good idea for Europe's national security and ours too, and will keep things balanced.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 27 Jun 2014, 20:20:35

I'm all for LNG exports to anywhere that will help raise the price of NG.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby Quinny » Sat 28 Jun 2014, 03:32:24

Wasn't a snark whatever that is?

You're always telling us how it's the East where all the problems are and how great the new government is. I was just trying to find out where the lady was coming from. You're advice is patronising bullshit. If I'd have received it I'd have told you where to get off.

Something 'helpful'. You are either so naive it's not true or just trying to wind me up.

I think I might write a letter to Putin asking him to support those poor eastern separatists LMFAO!
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby Sixstrings » Sat 28 Jun 2014, 04:11:43

Quinny wrote:You're always telling us how it's the East where all the problems are and how great the new government is.


The east is where the fighting is.

Yes their transition will be difficult. How anyone can look at standard of living numbers throughout Europe though, and still say Ukraine will somehow still be poorest place five and ten years from now, is just factually wrong.

Numbers don't lie, math doesn't like, EU trade deals have brought Poland and all the others up to Russian living standards. Russia brought Russians up to decent living standards -- but they have not done it for Ukraine.

These are numbers. These are facts. Math doesn't lie. They'll do better with the EU. In two years, in five years, in ten years.

Why this makes you angry is beyond me. Why you don't want Ukraine to do better, is beyond me. Why you won't welcome them into the fold, in the West, is beyond me.

I was just trying to find out where the lady was coming from. You're advice is patronising bullshit. If I'd have received it I'd have told you where to get off.


Nobody that could do anything about famine over there would ever be reading this forum -- a letter to Marcy Kaptur would do more good.

There won't be famine though.

It's going to work out in Ukraine, you're going to be proved wrong.

And I'm sorry for jumping on you, maybe I misunderstood you, and a snark means a sarcastic remark on an internet forum.

Let's just not snark at anyone that says they're going through hard times, like "so how's that new president working out?"

The guy just took office. He was elected in a landslide, winning every region in Ukraine east and west. He's got a hot war with Russians to handle for starters, then he's got to fix the economy. We'll see how it goes but so far he's doing some very positive things:

1) Setting a new tradition for presidents to divest themselves of any businesses they own. So he's selling his big chocolate company. So that's good. That's what we do in the United States. That's the right way to do things.

2) He says he's serious about getting at the oligarch corruption. That's what got him elected. That corruption is their #1 problem, and it's Russia's #1 problem too, they've got the same issue over there.

Yes he's an oligarch, but he's selling his businesses, and he points out that he ran an honest company and wasn't one of these oligarchs siphoning their fortune off the government.

3) He says joining Europe isn't just a slogan, but rather identifying with how YOU do things in Britain Quinn, and we do them in the US. Zero tolerance for massive corruption. Human rights. Constitutional government. He says it's a civilization change, they've crossed the rubicon, they're a new European nation and are independent and sovereign and want to be free.

You can't agree with all the above? These are the best things about your own nation, Quinn, and you can't agree with Ukrainians that want it too?
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby americandream » Sat 28 Jun 2014, 05:44:50

Ukraine will set the stage for the benchmarking of all labour value worldwide so entering the EU will be temporary relief. There is no escaping the hand of lopsided accumulation for anyone who is not passively wealthy. I, frankly, feel a great sympathy for the labouring masses. For Garna, this is little comfort and I can only but wish her well.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby americandream » Sat 28 Jun 2014, 07:41:20

GASMON wrote:
Ukraine will set the stage for the benchmarking of all labour value worldwide so entering the EU will be temporary relief

Correct.

As a UK citizen (EU ??!!) I don't relish the idea of another 60odd million west bound economic refugees diluting the wages of the average UK/EU worker.

Perhaps Ukraine would be better off joining Russia, after all, they (Russia) have vast resources.

There is no democracy in Europe either. Just a move to a super state.

Perhaps the UK would be better off alone, just perhaps.

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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 28 Jun 2014, 08:31:55

GarnaZhinkaYa wrote:They will reduce Ukrainian population to the wealthy minimum and make appearance of prospering country ready to become EU member.


This is a canary in the mine shaft comment and it would do well to interpret the 21st century future geopolitics and national politics through this lens.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 28 Jun 2014, 11:41:33

GarnaZhinkaYa wrote: I fear to think how many people would die of famine.


Don't be afraid.

Ukraine is the 6th largest exporter of wheat in the world, and a major exporter of corn, barley and other agricultural products as well. Ukraine exports tens of millions of tons of food each year, in addition to the food it provides for its own people. There is no food shortage in sight for Ukraine.

Ukraine grain exports continue growing

And even if things got so bollixed up that agriculture in Ukraine collapsed, its highly unlikely that Ukraine's friends in the EU would allow people in Ukraine to die in a mass famine.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sat 28 Jun 2014, 11:49:37

I dunno Plant, did you see the prices she's accustomed to paying for flour? If that's true, they are making the same mistake we made before the great depression. They could easily produce a surplus, AND, have no bread on the shelves. Her price needs to at least double again before it reaches even the low end of parity with what people in Europe/US pay for flour; without that, food on the shelves is not a result of a working market, but rather Government command economics; and we all know how well those work for keeping shelves well stocked and the less than favored people well fed; especially absent export controls; which interestingly enough, all got pretty much annihilated yesterday.
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Re: SOS from Zhitomyr

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 28 Jun 2014, 12:03:46

AgentR11 wrote:They could easily produce a surplus, AND, have no bread on the shelves.


Ukraine DOES produce a surplus. Its one of the biggest agricultural exporters on the planet. The hope in Ukraine is that by moving to a western style economy they will have lots and lots of food and other goods on the shelves.

AgentR11 wrote:Her price needs to at least double again before it reaches even the low end of parity with what people in Europe/US pay for flour; without that, food on the shelves is not a result of a working market, but rather Government command economics; and we all know how well those work for keeping shelves well stocked and the less than favored people well fed; especially absent export controls; which interestingly enough, all got pretty much annihilated yesterday.


Those are valid concerns. However, the agreement Ukraine signed with the EU yesterday requires Ukraine to privatize their economy, and the agricultural sector in Ukraine is the last part of the economy that still hasn't been privatized---essentially it hasn't changed since Soviet times. If Ukraine keeps its part of the deal with the EU, they will privatize the agricultural sector and modernize the rest of their economy, reduce the endemic corruption, and have a chance to see their economy start growing again.

That seems to be what the majority of Ukrainians want.

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