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Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 23 Nov 2014, 01:56:00

Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

With the entire media abuzz about renewable energy and climate change, it appears to be masking the major energy issue, which is a declining amount of cheap and readily available liquid fuel. We know this to be a serious issue, as we already feed 40% of the US corn crop to our machines, via a 10% blend of ethanol in our gasoline. 13% of our soybean crop goes to a 5% blend of biodiesel in our diesel fuel.

While renewable energies in the form of wind/solar/geothermal, etc, help to address our electrical power demand, they offer little in the way of alleviating our liquid fuel dilemma.

Or do they?

Will renewables be used on an ever increasing scale to generate hydrogen to replace gasoline or to extract uneconomical oil, or oil that has an EROEI<1? Or, will we subsidize uneconomical oil extraction?

Look at the countries that already subsidize gasoline. Prices range from $9.79/gallon in Norway to $.04/gallon in Venezuela.

Image

The 1.2 billion fleet of ICE powered vehicles on the road isn’t going to be replaced anytime soon with electric vehicles. There are just too many and more coming---2 billion by 2035. Not to mention, that starting in 2011, we produce 200 million ICE engines every year to power everything from weed wackers and chainsaws, to power plants and ships at sea.

In my mind, the utility of liquid fuels is just too great and too necessary, for our complex system to function without them.
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Re: Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sun 23 Nov 2014, 03:54:59

MonteQuest wrote:Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

With the entire media abuzz about renewable energy and climate change, it appears to be masking the major energy issue, which is a declining amount of cheap and readily available liquid fuel. We know this to be a serious issue, as we already feed 40% of the US corn crop to our machines, via a 10% blend of ethanol in our gasoline. 13% of our soybean crop goes to a 5% blend of biodiesel in our diesel fuel.
And as I mentioned in another thread:
Keith_McClary wrote:Looks like "renewable" ethanol is made with fossil water:
Image
87% of irrigated U.S. corn is grown in regions with high or extremely high water stress, meaning there is limited additional water available for expansion of crop irrigation.

Image
Twelve ethanol refineries above the High Plains aquifer – with nearly $1.7 billion in annual corn ethanol production capacity – are sourcing corn in areas experiencing cumulative declines in groundwater levels. Six of these refineries are in regions of extreme water-level decline (between 50-150 feet).

http://www.ceres.org/issues/water/agric ... st-of-corn

I also posted this in the Drought thread.

the-biofuel-thread-pt-5-merged-t68960-380.html#p1210692
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Re: Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 23 Nov 2014, 06:05:23

My first step would be to stop the production of corn ethanol as a waste of energy.
Next I would stop using liquid fuels to produce heat where a solid or gas fuel would serve conserving the liquid fuel for where it is most useful.
And finally raise fuel taxes a lot to discourage unneeded use and accelerate the turnover of the automobile and truck fleet to more efficient or alternative designs.
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Re: Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Sun 23 Nov 2014, 06:31:48

Obviously its still cheap compared to wages in the US or you would see smaller cars and more public transport,like in Europe
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Re: Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 23 Nov 2014, 08:34:41

Shaved Monkey wrote:Obviously its still cheap compared to wages in the US or you would see smaller cars and more public transport,like in Europe
Yes especially now at less then $3.00 a US gallon.
UK prices work out to $7.23/ US gallon. Even an American would park his big SUV at those prices.
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Re: Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

Unread postby DesuMaiden » Sun 23 Nov 2014, 09:55:30

MonteQuest wrote:Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

With the entire media abuzz about renewable energy and climate change, it appears to be masking the major energy issue, which is a declining amount of cheap and readily available liquid fuel. We know this to be a serious issue, as we already feed 40% of the US corn crop to our machines, via a 10% blend of ethanol in our gasoline. 13% of our soybean crop goes to a 5% blend of biodiesel in our diesel fuel.

While renewable energies in the form of wind/solar/geothermal, etc, help to address our electrical power demand, they offer little in the way of alleviating our liquid fuel dilemma.

Or do they?

Will renewables be used on an ever increasing scale to generate hydrogen to replace gasoline or to extract uneconomical oil, or oil that has an EROEI<1? Or, will we subsidize uneconomical oil extraction?

Look at the countries that already subsidize gasoline. Prices range from $9.79/gallon in Norway to $.04/gallon in Venezuela.

Image

The 1.2 billion fleet of ICE powered vehicles on the road isn’t going to be replaced anytime soon with electric vehicles. There are just too many and more coming---2 billion by 2035. Not to mention, that starting in 2011, we produce 200 million ICE engines every year to power everything from weed wackers and chainsaws, to power plants and ships at sea.

In my mind, the utility of liquid fuels is just too great and too necessary, for our complex system to function without them.

When oil becomes too scarce, driving cars and riding on airplanes will cease to exist because automobiles and airplanes depend on oil which is no longer available. I believe we will have to go back to horses as our primary transportation method as oil becomes too scarce. Other than horses, we would have to become dependent on bicycles and walking. There is no way electrical cars will replace oil-based cars because we wouldn't have enough oil to create 800 million electrical cars to replace the 800 million oil-based cars on the road. Also electricity is not an energy source. Electricity is generated by burning another energy source such as fossil fuels or nuclear fission. Electrical cars will never place internal-combustion based vehicles.
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Re: Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 23 Nov 2014, 11:24:03

vtsnowedin wrote:My first step would be to stop the production of corn ethanol as a waste of energy.


Sure, it may be slightly energy positive or not, but as long as you don't use fuels that would otherwise run ICE's, then producing ethanol will help our liquid fuel problem, may say the protectors of BAU.

Currently, the process heat is usually supplied by natural gas, and the electricity is generated with coal or natural gas. If coal remains abundant and cheap, coal economics will beat natural gas economics, but coal will increase the rate at which we put carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

TPTB may not much care, especially if they are GOP.
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Re: Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 23 Nov 2014, 11:32:23

DesuMaiden wrote: When oil becomes too scarce, driving cars and riding on airplanes will cease to exist because automobiles and airplanes depend on oil which is no longer available.


You seem to be missing the point here, Desu.

I posit that an all-out effort to maintain the status quo will perhaps take place. Liquids fuels may well be produced that are not only uneconomical and result in energy sinks, but also add to green house emissions. Providing liquid fuel to run cars and trucks may well become an all-out priority, through subsidies across the board and perhaps even military adventures to the oil-patch.

The fact that such an effort may be short-lived or cause worse chaos may not be considered.

We are addicted to oil, and no junkie gives up his fix easily, or sometimes, at all.
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Re: Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 23 Nov 2014, 11:38:53

DesuMaiden wrote: I believe we will have to go back to horses as our primary transportation method as oil becomes too scarce.


58 million horses vs 1.3 billion cars. How are you going to feed those horses instead of feed your car?
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Re: Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 23 Nov 2014, 11:51:13

vtsnowedin wrote: And finally raise fuel taxes a lot to discourage unneeded use and accelerate the turnover of the automobile and truck fleet to more efficient or alternative designs.


Selectively, or overall? Would you raise taxes on recreation use vehicles but not on commuters or service vehicles?
They will consume the same amount regardless of price, since little can be done to shorten routes. Service trucks will pass on the tax to their clients as a fuel surcharge, which is already being done.

Where will the money come from to finance an early turnover of the fleet of 1.3 billion headed to 2 billion?

CAFE standards are already in place and reducing fuel use.
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Re: Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

Unread postby BobInget » Sun 23 Nov 2014, 11:57:28

Agreeing with MonteQuest, may I speculate?

Airlines will continue to fly by saving money on crew. Pilots, flight attendants, cleaning service to maintaining the drone, all done by robots.

All this technology is already in use around the planet.

When last you went from one airline terminal to another distant by automated train or bus, did you question safety?

When fighter jets land on a carrier, computers, not pilots are in complete control. Supersonic aircraft today are far to advanced to fly by humans.
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Re: Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 23 Nov 2014, 13:21:28

MonteQuest wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:My first step would be to stop the production of corn ethanol as a waste of energy.


Sure, it may be slightly energy positive or not, but as long as you don't use fuels that would otherwise run ICE's, then producing ethanol will help our liquid fuel problem, may say the protectors of BAU.

Currently, the process heat is usually supplied by natural gas, and the electricity is generated with coal or natural gas. If coal remains abundant and cheap, coal economics will beat natural gas economics, but coal will increase the rate at which we put carbon dioxide into the atmosphere.

TPTB may not much care, especially if they are GOP.
Perhaps but the growing and transport of the corn uses a lot of diesel. Why don't we remove all the mandates and subsidies that push corn ethanol and let the industry decide how much to produce. After all they do use some ethanol to modify octane blends.
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Re: Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 23 Nov 2014, 13:42:08

MonteQuest wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote: And finally raise fuel taxes a lot to discourage unneeded use and accelerate the turnover of the automobile and truck fleet to more efficient or alternative designs.


Selectively, or overall? Would you raise taxes on recreation use vehicles but not on commuters or service vehicles?
They will consume the same amount regardless of price, since little can be done to shorten routes. Service trucks will pass on the tax to their clients as a fuel surcharge, which is already being done.

Where will the money come from to finance an early turnover of the fleet of 1.3 billion headed to 2 billion?
CAFE standards are already in place and reducing fuel use.

Good questions some with several possible answers. I would raise fuel taxes on all motor fuel except that used in agriculture. Certainly on fuel used for recreation. I would also tax liquid fuel used for home heating but with some deductible amount so as not to trap elderly people on fixed incomes. If the fuel tax is high enough and stays that way heavy freight will move to rail and shorten delivery routes. Three times a day FEDX and UPS delivery to my door nine miles from pavement will probably end. :cry:
The money for a more rapid fleet turnover will come from the fuel savings and out of the consumers pocket,(just like always).
CAFE standards are nice but not as effective as high prices.
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Re: Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 23 Nov 2014, 14:05:09

vtsnowedin wrote:Why don't we remove all the mandates and subsidies that push corn ethanol and let the industry decide how much to produce.


Because we need the liquid fuel. That's the point. Forget economics.
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Re: Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 23 Nov 2014, 14:15:06

MonteQuest wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:Why don't we remove all the mandates and subsidies that push corn ethanol and let the industry decide how much to produce.


Because we need the liquid fuel. That's the point. Forget economics.

With an EROEI of just 1.1 they would be better off just using the fossil fuel as end product and save all the added labor and interest costs.
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Re: Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 23 Nov 2014, 14:31:21

vtsnowedin wrote: If the fuel tax is high enough and stays that way heavy freight will move to rail and shorten delivery routes.


Long-haul trucking to short-haul to rail? Never happen. We spent decades abandoning track throughout the US, so existing US railroad infrastructure lacks sufficient capacity to accommodate any increase in demand for rail freight. The U.S. DOT estimates that the demand for rail freight transportation will increase 88 percent by 2035. Experts say that coal and oil trains will soon consume most of any existing capacity. Maybe the rest of the world will fair better.

The money for a more rapid fleet turnover will come from the fuel savings and out of the consumers pocket,(just like always).


Consumers aren't going to be getting any fuel savings. What incentive will there be for the average consumer to go into debt and buy a new car sooner than the normal 14 years? There will have to be a huge tax break or subsidy. Where will this money come from?
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Re: Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 23 Nov 2014, 14:34:26

vtsnowedin wrote: With an EROEI of just 1.1 they would be better off just using the fossil fuel as end product and save all the added labor and interest costs.


Better off yes, but cars and trucks don't run on coal and only a few run on natural gas.

Remember this is about "solving the liquid fuels problem."
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Re: Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

Unread postby MonteQuest » Sun 23 Nov 2014, 14:43:34

vtsnowedin-TPTB wish to continue BAU. That's why instead of raising fuel taxes to curb demand for liquid fuels, they opted instead to try to increase them via biofuels, coal to liquids, hydrogen, etc.

I think this will continue to be the play. And I wonder if it will come to outright subsidies to increase liquid fuel production, at all costs, to maintain the status quo.

Maybe China and it's authoritarian govt could instill such taxes, but here in the US, you would have to get them past Congress which just became controlled by the tax opposition party.
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Re: Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 23 Nov 2014, 14:59:26

MonteQuest wrote:Long-haul trucking to short-haul to rail? Never happen.

I'm sure much the same was said about the Interstate highway system when it was first proposed.
Consumers aren't going to be getting any fuel savings. What incentive will there be for the average consumer to go into debt and buy a new car sooner than the normal 14 years? There will have to be a huge tax break or subsidy. Where will this money come from?

??? You trade in SUV getting 15mpg for a small sedan getting 45mpg and you don't get any savings? :lol:
Back when oil hit $145 people I know did just that and took three to four thousand dollar losses on the trade with no other incentive. Most already are in debt to some degree anyway so it is not a decision to get into debt but how best to get out of it. No we don't need a huge cash for clunkers program just raise the gas tax and announce that it will rise by a fixed amount every six months until imports of crude stop.
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Re: Solving the Problem of Liquid Fuels

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 23 Nov 2014, 15:11:50

MonteQuest wrote:vtsnowedin-TPTB wish to continue BAU. That's why instead of raising fuel taxes to curb demand for liquid fuels, they opted instead to try to increase them via biofuels, coal to liquids, hydrogen, etc.

I think this will continue to be the play. And I wonder if it will come to outright subsidies to increase liquid fuel production, at all costs, to maintain the status quo.

Maybe China and it's authoritarian govt could instill such taxes, but here in the US, you would have to get them past Congress which just became controlled by the tax opposition party.

I don't expect TPTB to get their BAU very much in the future.
They will do the right thing as soon as they get done trying everything else. :roll:
I am looking at what might possibly work, not what might pass the current congress. If they can convert coal to liquid fuel at a profit by growing corn let them ,but don't mandate or subsidize it. Few tractors run on coal so it is only useful as a heat source at the refinery or for electricity to run the pumps.
Keeping the status quo in my view is out of the question. What the best alternative course is, is the question.
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