[JD]

The solution to the coming global energy crisis caused by the decline of petroleum production will probably look something like this:

1. Shortages and blackouts will make alternatives attractive at any price. Energy in all forms will cost more. This will spur a serious effort for conservation.

2. The new main source of energy will be wind power. Large wind turbines on tall towers are more cost effective. For individual homes, both small wind turbines and solar roofs will be important.

3. Total electricity demand fluctuates by time of day, day of week, season, and for other reasons. Electricity price must fluctuate with supply and demand. This will encourage conservation during peak times, and will allow ALL producers of electricity to sell power to the grid when the price is favorable. For example, a homeowner could recoup part of the cost of a solar roof or small wind turbine by selling some of the power during peak times. This will enable more businesses and homeowners to become producers, and will also ensure the survival of the grid because otherwise producers may tend to disconnect from the grid.

Alternatively, net metering allows electrical meters to spin backwards, giving homeowners a credit for power at the retail price. The utility benefits from net metering because if the homeowner generates more power than he uses in a 12 month period, the utility does not have to reimburse the customer for that extra power.

4. Automobiles, buses, trucks, trains, and farm equipment will be hybrid electric with batteries and a small steam turbine or other (hydrogen or compressed air) engine running at constant speed to charge the batteries. Gas stations across the country will manufacture hydrogen (by electrolysis of water) and compressed air onsite. The electrolysis will be controlled such that only the cheapest electricity is used. Jet aircraft will use hydrogen fuel. Compressed air engines are clean, quiet, lightweight, inexpensive and efficient. Compressed air tanks can be refilled just as quickly as hydrogen tanks.

6. Many homeowners and businesses will equip themselves with air compressors and compressed air storage tanks, plus electrolysis and hydrogen storage systems. The energy stored as compressed air and hydrogen can be used to fuel automobiles, heat the home, and provide back-up electricity. When the heat from gas turbines is utilized, the energy conversion efficiency can reach 80%.

7. Homes and businesses will be super-insulated to conserve energy and passive solar to take full advantage of freely available heat and light from the sun. Ground source heat pumps will be widely used for heating and cooling. All vehicles and appliances will be redesigned for maximum energy efficiency. Due to the inefficiencies involved with hydrogen, electric trains and trams and even electrified highways will become very competitive. Trains on steel rails use a fraction of the energy compared to rubber tire vehicles.

8. Remaining petrochemicals will be used as a feedstock for the plastics industry and other uses rather than burned for its energy.

Given time to adapt, we can collectively respond to any challenge. Delays in starting adaptation to a post-petroleum world will make the transition increasingly more difficult. If you wait until oil runs short, EVERYTHING will cost more, including alternative sources of energy, because at the present time everything is made and transported with petrochemicals. This means that "market signals" in the form of rising oil prices and shortages will come too late. If you want to build a post-petroleum economy you need to do it while there is still enough oil. This means NOW.

Whenever I see a wind turbine I get a little thrill. I stop and watch it with a sense of wonder. A wind turbine is a beautiful thing. Moreover, unlike the huge cost overruns repeatedly incurred by the nuclear industry, wind turbines are a simple commodity. The costs are known. Wind turbines are reliable, have good longevity, and generate no pollutants or greenhouse gases. Moreover, if one breaks the rest continue to operate. There is always wind blowing somewhere. Having wind turbines everywhere ensures that power is constantly being generated 24/7.

As oil supplies fall and demand rises, there will be a steadily growing gap between supply and demand that must be filled by alternatives if the global economy is to avoid collapse. See this chart produced by ExxonMobil in February 2004 highlighting the gap.

"By some estimates, there will be an average of two percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three percent natural decline in production from existing reserves." - Dick Cheney, 1999.

"Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it's a certainty." - D. Matthew Simmons, Energy Advisor to George W. Bush, August 2003.

"We must face the prospect of changing our basic ways of living. This change will either be made by our own initiative in a planned way, or forced on us with chaos and suffering by inexorable laws of nature." - Jimmy Carter.

[Concerned]

The solution to the coming global energy crisis caused by the decline of petroleum production will probably look something like this:

The only long term solution will be learning to live with less energy. Not to mention global population needs to get neutral and then head back down to the 1-2 billion range.

1. Shortages and blackouts will make alternatives attractive at any price. Energy in all forms will cost more. This will spur a serious effort for conservation.

Very true and there is no conservation like a blackout

2. The new main source of energy will be wind power. Large wind turbines on tall towers are more cost effective. For individual homes, both small wind turbines and solar roofs will be important.

Wind still needs to be backed up by Nuclear, Gas or Coal fired power plants. Cruise the forums gg3 has made some excellent posts as to why wind cant become the main source of energy. It's a good addition to extending current fossil fuel supplies.

3. Total electricity demand fluctuates by time of day, day of week, season, and for other reasons. Electricity price must fluctuate with supply and demand. This will encourage conservation during peak times, and will allow ALL producers of electricity to sell power to the grid when the price is favorable. For example, a homeowner could recoup part of the cost of a solar roof or small wind turbine by selling some of the power during peak times. This will enable more businesses and homeowners to become producers, and will also ensure the survival of the grid because otherwise producers may tend to disconnect from the grid.

Alternatively, net metering allows electrical meters to spin backwards, giving homeowners a credit for power at the retail price. The utility benefits from net metering because if the homeowner generates more power than he uses in a 12 month period, the utility does not have to reimburse the customer for that extra power.

Overall a good idea but what profit is there for power companies to allow regular joes to sell power back to them? A buy sell differential perhaps?

4. Automobiles, buses, trucks, trains, and farm equipment will be hybrid electric with batteries and a small steam turbine or other (hydrogen or compressed air) engine running at constant speed to charge the batteries. Gas stations across the country will manufacture hydrogen (by electrolysis of water) and compressed air onsite. The electrolysis will be controlled such that only the cheapest electricity is used. Jet aircraft will use hydrogen fuel. Compressed air engines are clean, quiet, lightweight, inexpensive and efficient. Compressed air tanks can be refilled just as quickly as hydrogen tanks.

Most hydrogen is synthesised from gas, hydroden is a net energy loser it takes more energy to create hydrogen even from gas than the energy that hydrogen returns. So a hydrogen based vehicle fleet would require even more electricity capacity.

6. Many homeowners and businesses will equip themselves with air compressors and compressed air storage tanks, plus electrolysis and hydrogen storage systems. The energy stored as compressed air and hydrogen can be used to fuel automobiles, heat the home, and provide back-up electricity. When the heat from gas turbines is utilized, the energy conversion efficiency can reach 80%.

Sounds good.

7. Homes and businesses will be super-insulated to conserve energy and passive solar to take full advantage of freely available heat and light from the sun. Ground source heat pumps will be widely used for heating and cooling. All vehicles and appliances will be redesigned for maximum energy efficiency. Due to the inefficiencies involved with hydrogen, electric trains and trams and even electrified highways will become very competitive. Trains on steel rails use a fraction of the energy compared to rubber tire vehicles.

Many of these solutions require two things. A large capital outlay up front in insulation, geo thermal, hybrid, engines that run on ethanol or hydrogen etc. etc.. and secondly a paradigm shift in how people think about energy use.

8. Remaining petrochemicals will be used as a feedstock for the plastics industry and other uses rather than burned for its energy.

Given time to adapt, we can collectively respond to any challenge. Delays in starting adaptation to a post-petroleum world will make the transition increasingly more difficult. If you wait until oil runs short, EVERYTHING will cost more, including alternative sources of energy, because at the present time everything is made and transported with petrochemicals. This means that "market signals" in the form of rising oil prices and shortages will come too late. If you want to build a post-petroleum economy you need to do it while there is still enough oil. This means NOW.

We can adapt to any challenge, that does not preclude the possibility that potentially millions of people will go hungry or even starve before the penny finally drops that OMG we better change the way we are doing things.

Whenever I see a wind turbine I get a little thrill. I stop and watch it with a sense of wonder. A wind turbine is a beautiful thing. Moreover, unlike the huge cost overruns repeatedly incurred by the nuclear industry, wind turbines are a simple commodity. The costs are known. Wind turbines are reliable, have good longevity, and generate no pollutants or greenhouse gases. Moreover, if one breaks the rest continue to operate. There is always wind blowing somewhere. Having wind turbines everywhere ensures that power is constantly being generated 24/7.

Wind turbines by their very nature can not replace conventional fossil fuel or nuclear power stations. They are an extender to the current energy supply but NO REPLACEMENT

[/quote]
As oil supplies fall and demand rises, there will be a steadily growing gap between supply and demand that must be filled by alternatives if the global economy is to avoid collapse. See this chart produced by ExxonMobil in February 2004 highlighting the gap.

"By some estimates, there will be an average of two percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three percent natural decline in production from existing reserves." - Dick Cheney, 1999.

"Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it's a certainty." - D. Matthew Simmons, Energy Advisor to George W. Bush, August 2003.

"We must face the prospect of changing our basic ways of living. This change will either be made by our own initiative in a planned way, or forced on us with chaos and suffering by inexorable laws of nature." - Jimmy Carter.[/quote]

And that is the crux of the matter. We have to learn to live with less rampant energy consumption.[/b]

[Tanada]

The solution to the coming global energy crisis caused by the decline of petroleum production will probably look something like this:

1. Shortages and blackouts will make alternatives attractive at any price. Energy in all forms will cost more. This will spur a serious effort for conservation.

2. The new main source of energy will be wind power. Large wind turbines on tall towers are more cost effective. For individual homes, both small wind turbines and solar roofs will be important.

3. Total electricity demand fluctuates by time of day, day of week, season, and for other reasons. Electricity price must fluctuate with supply and demand. This will encourage conservation during peak times, and will allow ALL producers of electricity to sell power to the grid when the price is favorable. For example, a homeowner could recoup part of the cost of a solar roof or small wind turbine by selling some of the power during peak times. This will enable more businesses and homeowners to become producers, and will also ensure the survival of the grid because otherwise producers may tend to disconnect from the grid.

Alternatively, net metering allows electrical meters to spin backwards, giving homeowners a credit for power at the retail price. The utility benefits from net metering because if the homeowner generates more power than he uses in a 12 month period, the utility does not have to reimburse the customer for that extra power.

4. Automobiles, buses, trucks, trains, and farm equipment will be hybrid electric with batteries and a small steam turbine or other (hydrogen or compressed air) engine running at constant speed to charge the batteries. Gas stations across the country will manufacture hydrogen (by electrolysis of water) and compressed air onsite. The electrolysis will be controlled such that only the cheapest electricity is used. Jet aircraft will use hydrogen fuel. Compressed air engines are clean, quiet, lightweight, inexpensive and efficient. Compressed air tanks can be refilled just as quickly as hydrogen tanks.

6. Many homeowners and businesses will equip themselves with air compressors and compressed air storage tanks, plus electrolysis and hydrogen storage systems. The energy stored as compressed air and hydrogen can be used to fuel automobiles, heat the home, and provide back-up electricity. When the heat from gas turbines is utilized, the energy conversion efficiency can reach 80%.

7. Homes and businesses will be super-insulated to conserve energy and passive solar to take full advantage of freely available heat and light from the sun. Ground source heat pumps will be widely used for heating and cooling. All vehicles and appliances will be redesigned for maximum energy efficiency. Due to the inefficiencies involved with hydrogen, electric trains and trams and even electrified highways will become very competitive. Trains on steel rails use a fraction of the energy compared to rubber tire vehicles.

8. Remaining petrochemicals will be used as a feedstock for the plastics industry and other uses rather than burned for its energy.

Given time to adapt, we can collectively respond to any challenge. Delays in starting adaptation to a post-petroleum world will make the transition increasingly more difficult. If you wait until oil runs short, EVERYTHING will cost more, including alternative sources of energy, because at the present time everything is made and transported with petrochemicals. This means that "market signals" in the form of rising oil prices and shortages will come too late. If you want to build a post-petroleum economy you need to do it while there is still enough oil. This means NOW.

Whenever I see a wind turbine I get a little thrill. I stop and watch it with a sense of wonder. A wind turbine is a beautiful thing. Moreover, unlike the huge cost overruns repeatedly incurred by the nuclear industry, wind turbines are a simple commodity. The costs are known. Wind turbines are reliable, have good longevity, and generate no pollutants or greenhouse gases. Moreover, if one breaks the rest continue to operate. There is always wind blowing somewhere. Having wind turbines everywhere ensures that power is constantly being generated 24/7.

As oil supplies fall and demand rises, there will be a steadily growing gap between supply and demand that must be filled by alternatives if the global economy is to avoid collapse. See this chart produced by ExxonMobil in February 2004 highlighting the gap.

"By some estimates, there will be an average of two percent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead, along with, conservatively, a three percent natural decline in production from existing reserves." - Dick Cheney, 1999.

"Under the best of circumstances, if all prayers are answered there will be no crisis for maybe two years. After that it's a certainty." - D. Matthew Simmons, Energy Advisor to George W. Bush, August 2003.

"We must face the prospect of changing our basic ways of living. This change will either be made by our own initiative in a planned way, or forced on us with chaos and suffering by inexorable laws of nature." - Jimmy Carter.

When I first joined this website way back in 2005 I found posts like this one and they gave me great hope. I was not the only one who saw the problem and knew we had to make some changes to our lives! Hooray! I am not alone!

12 years later I look back and see that as a culture we have effectively done none of the things predicted here, the things that gave me such hope. For all intents and purposes we have wasted the last 12 years doing very little to prepare for the effects that Peak Oil will have on our civilization. When oil was averaging $100/bbl/d did we seek to take advantage of the alternatives? No, not really, instead we went all in drilling and fracking our way through the shale bed sweet spots.

[ennui2]

We're in the brown-tech stage of Future Scenarios without the biofuels and fascist government, and a smidge of Green Tech sprinkled on top.

http://www.futurescenarios.org/content/view/28/48/

[ennui2]

Holmgren's writing can oftentimes be obtuse but the main point he made years ago that different strategies lead to different outcomes is a valid one.

And I don't see how permacture's mission is to debunk peak-oil, and you profess to be a permaculturalist yourself, so why do you have a bug up your ass about it?

Really, a lot of the time you just bash positions for the sake of bashing them even when they don't conflict with yours. All the more reason to bash mine since you dislike me so much.

Here is Holmgren's essay from a couple years ago that updates things. He says a lot of what people here are currently saying. So where is the controversy?

[KaiserJeep]

There is no controversy to speak of. Quite simply, nobody is paying the topic much attention.

[ennui2]

There is no controversy to speak of. Quite simply, nobody is paying the topic much attention.

People here are. Nobody else is, of course.

[KaiserJeep]

-snip-
People here are. Nobody else is, of course.

Quite correct.

[peripato]

Wind turbines are reliable, have good longevity, and generate no pollutants or greenhouse gases.

Not directly, but there are still carbon costs associated with building and maintaining them since fossil fuels must be used for these aspects. Otherwise, best wishes for your plan!

[ennui2]

This is a mega thread-bump. You're debating someone who hasn't posted here in many years.

[peripato]

This is a mega thread-bump. You're debating someone who hasn't posted here in many years.

Ha ha. Just noticed that...cheers

[Subjectivist]

Wind turbines are reliable, have good longevity, and generate no pollutants or greenhouse gases.

Not directly, but there are still carbon costs associated with building and maintaining them since fossil fuels must be used for these aspects. Otherwise, best wishes for your plan!

Don't sell windmill companies short. If the government decides they are vital to the national interest they will get the small amount of oil they need.

[peripato]

Wind turbines are reliable, have good longevity, and generate no pollutants or greenhouse gases.

Not directly, but there are still carbon costs associated with building and maintaining them since fossil fuels must be used for these aspects. Otherwise, best wishes for your plan!

Don't sell windmill companies short. If the government decides they are vital to the national interest they will get the small amount of oil they need.

The factories where these things are built run on coal mainly. Oil principally needed for liquid fuels for construction and maintenance crews etc.

[Subjectivist]

Wind turbines are reliable, have good longevity, and generate no pollutants or greenhouse gases.

Not directly, but there are still carbon costs associated with building and maintaining them since fossil fuels must be used for these aspects. Otherwise, best wishes for your plan!

Don't sell windmill companies short. If the government decides they are vital to the national interest they will get the small amount of oil they need.

The factories where these things are built run on coal mainly. Oil principally needed for liquid fuels for construction and maintenance crews etc.

Exactly, if needed they will get whatever they require to extend BAU by as much as they can manage.

[peripato]

Exactly, if needed they will get whatever they require to extend BAU by as much as they can manage.

Perhaps, but it will just make the inevitable collapse worse by extending overshoot.

[MonteQuest]

Exactly, if needed they will get whatever they require to extend BAU by as much as they can manage.

Perhaps, but it will just make the inevitable collapse worse by extending overshoot.

That's what far too many don't get. The solution to the energy crisis is fewer people on the planet. That's what Mother Nature is going to do. And now that many countries are paying women to have babies, katy bar the door.

[Tanada]

Let Mother Nature worry about the die off, none of us have any influence on how events will play out on that topic. On the other topic, which this thread is about, we do still have some influence. There are things even now that can be done to cushion the energy transition, like building a super insulated earth shelter home if we have the funds to do so.

[Pops]

There are things even now that can be done to cushion the energy transition, like building a super insulated earth shelter home if we have the funds to do so.

Just caulk the baseboards for a start.

Philosophising is more fun tho...

[Tanada]

There are things even now that can be done to cushion the energy transition, like building a super insulated earth shelter home if we have the funds to do so.

Just caulk the baseboards for a start.

Philosophising is more fun tho...

Once you have made the improvements you can afford to make then philosophising is most of what you have left