Importantly, it takes energy and capital to drill oil wells, build power stations and erect wind turbines. The ratio of the useful energy produced relative to the energy invested to get that energy is known as the energy-return-on-investment, EROI, or sometimes ‘net energy’. It is the energy surpluses fossil fuels make available that have enabled the development of the modern state, with its advanced education, healthcare, welfare, and the richness and diversity of modern life.
But what if global net energy is on a downward trend? The EROI of the global oil supply is currently taken at between 10:1 and 18:1, and declining. Capital investment for the oil industry has tripled in the past 10 years, but production has plateaued. Oil supply is increasingly reliant on deepwater drilling, enhanced recovery and unconventional oil.
If we take the commonly quoted net energy figures for solar of somewhere between 10:1 up to 60:1—and still increasing—we might assume that PV (photovoltaic solar) is an irresistible ‘disruptive technology’ on an assured upward trajectory. However, it’s not at all obvious that solar provides the same value to society as oil and other energy sources; every one of the more than a million grid-connected PV systems in Australia could be turned off for a week and few would notice, nor would the electricity system reserve margins be adversely affected. Yet even minor disruptions to petrol supplies, natural gas or the internet can have a major effect on daily life. The curious thing is that the literature on the solar life cycle seems to readily accept these high numbers without probing what they really mean.
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