OilFinder2 wrote:I knew Sixstrings would bring this up.
I'm not going to explain it in detail because I doubt anyone here will believe it, but today's number - and the initial claims from the past few weeks in general - are an artifact of the seasonal adjustment process. Specifically, the fact that there were fewer than normal layoffs (and initial jobless claims) in July due to GM not furloughing so many workers during the model year changeovers, has resulted in a much-smaller-than-normal decline in not seasonally adjusted claims between the 2nd week of July and the current week. The smaller-than-normal decline in NSA numbers has resulted in a rising SA number.
I can show you the calculation if you want to see it, but as I said, I doubt anyone will believe it, or at least they will dismiss it all away. If I am right (and once you see the #'s it becomes pretty obvious), this will begin to correct itself in about a month, maybe less.
So, I will once again put my money where my mouth is: $50 says that by the last week of September, the seasonally-adjusted initial unemployment claims number will be back below 475,000. Bet goes to the first taker.
Tolda ya so!!!
>>> Jobless claims drop 31,000 to 473,000 <<<