So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

[OilFinder2]

I knew Sixstrings would bring this up.

I'm not going to explain it in detail because I doubt anyone here will believe it, but today's number - and the initial claims from the past few weeks in general - are an artifact of the seasonal adjustment process. Specifically, the fact that there were fewer than normal layoffs (and initial jobless claims) in July due to GM not furloughing so many workers during the model year changeovers, has resulted in a much-smaller-than-normal decline in not seasonally adjusted claims between the 2nd week of July and the current week. The smaller-than-normal decline in NSA numbers has resulted in a rising SA number.

I can show you the calculation if you want to see it, but as I said, I doubt anyone will believe it, or at least they will dismiss it all away. If I am right (and once you see the #'s it becomes pretty obvious), this will begin to correct itself in about a month, maybe less.

So, I will once again put my money where my mouth is: $50 says that by the last week of September, the seasonally-adjusted initial unemployment claims number will be back below 475,000. Bet goes to the first taker.

Tolda ya so!!!

>>> Jobless claims drop 31,000 to 473,000 <<<

[TonyPrep]

In that same article:

The four-week average of initial claims -- a better gauge of employment trends than the volatile weekly number -- actually rose slightly, up 3,250 to 486,750.

Remember that revisions also play a part, with the previous week's number being revised to 504,000 initial claims.

[OilFinder2]

I absolutely, definitely could be wrong, but according to my calculation we could see a big drop in initial unemployment claims tomorrow morning (the seasonally adjusted "headline" number). I'm looking at somewhere around 450K (from last week's 472K, which will probably be adjusted up to around 475K), but it might even be as low as 420K. Anything more than about 465K, and something funny's going on that needs to be watched for a few more weeks.

EDIT: Hmm, I think I was looking at the wrong week. It could be closer to 460K. We'll see. Anyway I'm working on a model to predict initial unemployment claims for the rest of this year. But it needs tweaking with several more weeks of data.

[OilFinder2]

^
Told ya so! Damn I'm good.

>>> Jobless claims decline by 27,000 to 451,000 <<<

[gnm]

I wouldn't start cheering just yet Oily. Lets wait for the "revised" number shall we? Especially considering that 9 states (including CA) were "estimates" - apparently they didn't have real numbers. And 7 of those states were estimated by the Fed.

-G

edit - fixed typo

[efarmer]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/co ... 06717.html

Taxes seem to be set to either go down or GO DOWN.
We are doubling down on growth as a single source of cure.

[Pops]

That is a great chart ef,



That should be the entire democratic ad champaign.

I once worked for a chain of jewelry stores who had a real live warranty that they really stood behind, the only problem was they didn't advertise it, except by word of mouth of course. So the net effect (when I did the old market polling bit) was they incurred the cost but didn't reap all the benefits because their warranty was only seen as good as everyone else's.

Don't necessarily know why I thought of that...

[Ludi]

"Comparing Democratic and Republican tax plans
The Republicans' plan to extend the Bush administration tax cuts for the wealthy would cost $36.6 billion more than the Democrats' plan,"

I guess it's ok to cost if you're cutting taxes for the wealthy.

[Chuckmak]

That is a great chart ef,

[Quinny]

Trickle down LMFAO!

[Ludi]

Trickle down LMFAO!

Siphon up!

[Quinny]

Good point - TPTB seem to think they can defy the laws of physics!

[OilFinder2]

I wouldn't start cheering just yet Oily. Lets wait for the "revised" number shall we? Especially considering that 9 states (including CA) were "estimates" - apparently they didn't have real numbers. And 7 of those states were estimated by the Fed.

A week later, we have the results: The guesses for the 16 states were off by a whopping 2,000, or 0.4%. Fire them all!

>>> Jobless claims drop 3,000 to 450,000 <<<

[Daniel_Plainview]

Jobless Claims in U.S. Increased 12,000 to 465,000 Last Week

By Bob Willis

Sept. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Applications for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week, a sign companies remain cautious about hiring as economic growth slows.

Initial jobless claims increased by 12,000 to 465,000 in the week ended Sept. 18, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The total number of people receiving unemployment insurance declined, while those getting extended payments rose.

Employers that have slowed firings since the recession ended in June 2009 haven’t stepped up the pace of hiring enough to reduce an unemployment rate hovering near a 26-year high. A lack of job growth may signal consumer spending will be restrained in the second half of the year, economists said.

“The labor market is in a pretty soft position,” Paul Dales, a U.S. economist at Capital Economics Ltd. in Toronto, said before the report. “Private-sector employment is still growing but not anywhere near fast enough to bring down the unemployment rate.” ***

...

Emergency Benefits

The continuing claims figure does not include the number of Americans receiving extended and emergency benefits under federal programs. Those who’ve used up their traditional benefits and are now collecting emergency and extended payments increased by about 208,000 to 5.17 million in the week ended Sept. 4.

continued

[Plantagenet]

And so ends Obama's failed "Recovery Summer."

With increasing unemployment. How appropriate.

Hope and Change aren't working out so great. Maybe we should go for Experience and Knowledge next time?

[OilFinder2]

LINK

Oct. 7, 2010, 9:40 a.m. EDT
Initial jobless claims drop 11,000 to 445,000
Workers continuing to receive benefits fall slightly to 4.46 million
By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The number of people who filed new claims for state unemployment benefits fell 11,000 to 445,000 in the latest week, the lowest level since early July, the U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday

Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected initial claims to rise to a seasonally adjusted 455,000 in the week ended Oct. 2. Claims for last week were revised up by 3,000 to 456,000.

The news was received positively by markets, as U.S. stocks rose in early trade on Thursday.

New applications for jobless benefits have dropped almost 10% after spiking above 500,000 in midsummer, and they are now slightly lower compared to the end of 2009. Yet claims continue to hover in the 450,000 range, a level historically associated with sluggish economy.

[...]

[OilFinder2]

I'm close to rescinding my "sideways" prediction for initial jobless claims and making a new prediction that we'll start to see a downward trend. But I'm not going to call it a new prediction just yet. Data from mid-late November will be the tell-tale sign.

LINK

Oct. 28, 2010
Jobless claims drop 21,000 to 434,000
Continuing claims down 122,000 at 4.36 million
By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — The number of people who filed new claims for unemployment benefits fell 21,000 to 434,000 in the latest week, marking the third straight decline and the lowest level since early July, the U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday.

Most economists believe weekly claims have to start moving toward 400,000 to signify an upswing in hiring. The market reaction was initially positive, as U.S. stocks started the session higher before petering out later in the morning.

[...]

[Daniel_Plainview]

I'm close to rescinding my "sideways" prediction for initial jobless claims and making a new prediction that we'll start to see a downward trend. But I'm not going to call it a new prediction just yet.

Jobless Claims in U.S. Increase More Than Forecast (Update2)

By Courtney Schlisserman and Bob Willis

Nov. 4 (Bloomberg) -- More Americans than forecast filed applications for unemployment benefits last week, showing the labor market will take time to improve. Jobless claims rose by 20,000 to 457,000 in the week ended Oct. 30 from a revised 437,000 the prior week, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington. The total number of people receiving unemployment insurance fell, while those on extended payments increased.

Bloomberg

[Timo]

I hear there's lots of jobs available in India and China. In fact, most of those jobs are the same as things we used to do right here in the U.S. Remember when we used to make stuff?

[OilFinder2]

I love the way Daniel cherry-picks my quote. In case he's blind:

But I'm not going to call it a new prediction just yet. Data from mid-late November will be the tell-tale sign.

It's not mid-late November yet, is it.