So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

[Daniel_Plainview]

OMG! Jobless Claims Surge by 26,000 (adjusted) and 52,000 (unadjusted)

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending March 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 397,000, an increase of 26,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 371,000. The 4-week moving average was 392,250, an increase of 3,000 from the previous week's revised average of 389,250. The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent for the week ending Feb. 26, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Feb.26 was 3,771,000, a decrease of 20,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,791,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,833,250, a decrease of 34,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,868,000.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 406,096 in the week ending March 5, an increase of 52,147 from the previous week. There were 459,523 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.



The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent during the week ending Feb. 26, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,442,438, an increase of 97,576 from the preceding week. ... The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending Feb 19 was 8,772,818.



... States reported 3,600,522 persons claiming EUC (Emergency Unemployment Compensation) benefits for the week ending Feb. 19, a decrease of 52,745 from the prior week. There were 5,527,451 claimants in the comparable week in 2010. EUC weekly claims include first, second, third, and fourth tier activity.

BLS

[Armageddon]

I agree with Denninger:

The drop in extended benefits may be roll-offs. The regular claims look good, but we have to be careful here, because we're getting to the point now, with the length of this turndown, where people may simply not qualify even though they were laid off.

In order to qualify for a new claim you have to have a fairly significant work history and it must be unbroken. If you ran out of benefits, got a job and then got laid off again within a reasonably-short period of time it's entirely possible (and indeed likely) that you would be denied a new initial claim.

[OilFinder2]

A scant 2 months ago, Daniel would have been discouraged at a print of 397K. His case has now gotten so poor that he finds himself getting excited at a print of 397K. His increasing desperation is evident in the fact that, in addition to his already obnoxious posts, he's now adding not one, but two photos. He reminds one of some spoiled brat who has to scream and shout to get attention. The more desperate he becomes, the louder he has to scream.

[Lore]

I agree with Denninger:

The drop in extended benefits may be roll-offs. The regular claims look good, but we have to be careful here, because we're getting to the point now, with the length of this turndown, where people may simply not qualify even though they were laid off.

In order to qualify for a new claim you have to have a fairly significant work history and it must be unbroken. If you ran out of benefits, got a job and then got laid off again within a reasonably-short period of time it's entirely possible (and indeed likely) that you would be denied a new initial claim.

Or the beginning of the ugly head of serial unemployment.

[OilFinder2]

Aw shucks, doomer hopes dashed again, inital claims fall to 385K

March 17, 2011, 8:48 a.m. EDT
Initial jobless claims drop to 385,000 last week: U.S.
By Jeffry Bartash, MarketWatch

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) — New applications for state jobless benefits fell by 16,000 last week to 385,000, keeping initial claims at a level usually associated with a modest pace of hiring, U.S. data showed Thursday.

Economists polled by MarketWatch had expected first-time claims to fall to a seasonally adjusted 389,000 in the week ended March 12. The prior week’s claims were revised up to 401,000, according to the Labor Department.

Over the past four weeks claims have averaged 386,250, the lowest level seen since July 2008. The four-week average is considered more accurate barometer of employment trends because it lessens week-to-week volatility in the data.

[...]

Below 400K 4 of the past 6 weeks. Poor doomers, they must be getting really frustrated.

[vision-master]

Dude, these ppl don't qualify for un-enjoyment. They either don't have enough credits for the year or where laid off from part times jobs - you just don't get it oily......

[OilFinder2]

Dude, these ppl don't qualify for un-enjoyment. They either don't have enough credits for the year or where laid off from part times jobs - you just don't get it oily......

Classic doomer denialism!!

Something is getting better but . . . nooo it just cannot be true! There just must be some doomish explanation! Must, I tell ya, MUST!!

LOL!!!

Make it all go away!!!

[Timo]

I'm not a doomer in the classic understanding of the word, but in their defense, our collective impending doom doesn't rest solely upon those standing (or not) in the unemployment lines. There's also the value of the dollar, ITC, peak oil, geologic fun and games, Republican fascism, yada-yada-yada....... The doom is just beginning!

[vision-master]

Classic doomer denialism!! Something is getting better but . . . nooo it just cannot be true! There just must be some doomish explanation! Must, I tell ya, MUST!! LOL!!!

Make it all go away!!!

Here, oily-the-shill.......

[OilFinder2]

Here, oily-the-shill.......

Personal attack deleted

Here is the correct data series. On topic.

[Maddog78]

My company hired six people this month and we have two more openings we want to fill.
We will also add two more rigs in April.

There's doom out there if that's all you want to look for.
There are also good things happening here and there.

[vision-master]

Michigan governor wants emergency powers.

Michigan Governor Rick Snyder will cut aid to local towns and cities so drastically that he can then declare them in a state of fiscal emergency and then strip the local governments of their duly elected officials and inserting his own appointed financial managers with specific authority. His bill will authorize the emergency manager to reject, modify, or terminate the terms of existing contracts or collective bargaining agreements.

Additionally the Michigan Messenger reports:
http://michiganmessenger.com/47013/bill ... ers-powers

State officials estimate that dozens of local governments and school districts will soon be unable to pay their bills and the Treasury dept. is on record supporting a bill — passed by the House last week — which would recast Emergency Financial Managers as Emergency Managers and give them unprecedented new power to fire elected officials, dissolve labor contracts and reorganize or dissolve cities and school districts.

Supporters of the measure say that it is needed because the leaders of some towns and schools have been unable to muster the political will to take unpopular budget balancing steps.

Because the bill establishes no process for how appointees can carry out their new powers and specifically lays out that Emergency Managers need not consult with a community’s elected representatives, some worry that corporate managers, appointed by the governor, could liquidate community assets to cover debt and leave towns no better off than they were......

Labor officials say the legislation will give “dictatorial” powers over municipalities struggling with financial issues. They say Gov. Rick Snyder’s budget which has severe cuts to local revenue sharing and K-12 school fund per pupil rates will drive local units of government closer to financial insolvency, causing a need for financial managers. Those managers would be empowered to nullify any bargaining agreements in effect, and upon doing so it would stand for five years.

ALSO: the Governor’s budget will impose tax hikes on seniors and low-income workers to the tune of $1.7 billion AND then he will give $1.8 billion in tax cuts to businesses; Governor wants to take over the right to appoint local government rather then allow local citizens to vote in their officials. The Governor’s emergency manager will be able to disincorporate or dissolve municipal governments.

http://willyloman.wordpress.com/2011/03 ... s-screwed/

[Timo]

With reference to another thread here on P.O., why anyone would trust a Republican with any official power is beyond me. See a problem. Make it worse. Blame Democrats. Problem solved.

[vision-master]

Senate bill calls for pension funding shift

PERA Coordinated and Correctional members would effectively pay 50 percent more for their pensions under a bill introduced Monday, March 14, by Sen. Mike Parry, Waseca, and Sen. Gretchen Hoffman, Vergas. Employer contributions to the plans would drop a similar amount under

Senate File 813.


The 3 percent of pay increase would mean a contribution rate of 9.25 percent for Coordinated members and 8.83 percent for Corrections officers as of July 1. Employer rates would drop to 4.25 percent and 5.75 percent, respectively. The bill does not affect the Association's Police & Fire Plan.

In addition to PERA members, the bill’s provisions also apply to state employees, teachers and legislators. The Republican sponsors argue the legislation will bring public pensions more in line with private sector retirement plans. Union leaders immediately criticized the measure as a unilateral pay reduction for members and noted that unions supported several pension benefit concessions in last year's Omnibus Pension Bill.

Unlike Wisconsin, where, until this month pension funding has been primarily an employer responsibility, PERA members and employers have traditionally split pension costs. Both members and employers pay about 50 percent each for the General Plan and divide the costs 40%/60% for the public safety plans.

In effect, shifting more of the pension costs to employees would offset reductions employers see in future local government aid from the state. It is estimated employers would save approximately $155 million per year with the lower Coordinated Plan contribution rate, and an additional $5 million for the Correctional Plan.


The bill is headed to Parry’s Senate State Government Innovation and Veterans Committee rather than the Legislative Commission on Pensions and Retirement, the usual starting point for pension legislation. A companion bill has yet to be introduced in the House.

This is not the first legislation directly addressing PERA pensions this year. Rep. Mark Buesgens, Jordan, introduced two bills in February that would effectively freeze public pensions in Minnesota as of July 1 ( H.F.542 and H.F.594). The two measures call for closing all public retirement plans to new employees after June 30, and locking in the benefits earned as of that date for current public employees. The legislation has not been picked up in the Senate.

[OilFinder2]

Below 400K 4 of the past 6 weeks. Poor doomers, they must be getting really frustrated.

personal attack deleted

[vision-master]

Who do you work for?

[OilFinder2]

Who do you work for?

I work for an Indian tribe.

Sorry to disappoint you.

[OilFinder2]

Steady as she goes!

LINK

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending March 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 382,000, a decrease of 5,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 387,000. The 4-week moving average was 385,250, a decrease of 1,500 from the previous week's revised average of 386,750.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.0 percent for the week ending March 12, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.0 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 12 was 3,721,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,723,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,755,250, a decrease of 28,000 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,783,250.

[...]

[OilFinder2]

We have new-and-improved seasonal adjustment factors going all the way back to 2006, but we're still below 400K 6 of the past 8 weeks.

>>> Weekly U.S. jobless claims dip 6,000 to 388,000 <<<

[vision-master]

Don't forget this oily.

The average of new claims over the past four weeks, meanwhile, rose by 3,250 to 394,250. The four-week average is considered more accurate a gauge of employment trends because it lessens week-to-week volatility in the data.