So much for "sideways," jobless claims jump to 500k

[Timo]

The Wall Street Execs deserve a bailout bonus check for this one!

On second thought, better make that straight gold. Government checks aren't worth anything anymore.

[OilFinder2]

I detect more than a bit of dishonesty in someone here. Posted Thu Jan 13. "Next week" was Jan 20 - and indeed it [NSA claims} fell by more than 100K that week. Today is Jan 28.

Daniel is making the exact same mistake Sixstrings made when he started this thread.

It will probably fall by at least 100K next week. Of course the doomer types won't mention that when it occurs.

[Daniel_Plainview]

I detect more than a bit of dishonesty in someone here.

Did I grab the wrong quote? In any case, without admitting any wrongdoing, I'll repost with another amusing quote ...

I'm close to rescinding my "sideways" prediction for initial jobless claims and making a new prediction that we'll start to see a downward trend.

Aw Crap -- Jobless Claims Skyrocket by 51K as Phony Recovery Loses Steam

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Jan. 22, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 454,000, an increase of 51,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 403,000. The 4-week moving average was 428,750, an increase of 15,750 from the previous week's revised average of 413,000.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.2 percent for the week ending Jan. 15, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.1 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Jan. 15 was 3,991,000, an increase of 94,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,897,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,975,500, a decrease of 39,750 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,015,250.

UNADJUSTED DATA

The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 482,399 in the week ending Jan. 22, a decrease of 67,491 from the previous week. There were 502,710 initial claims in the comparable week in 2010.

The advance unadjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.7 percent during the week ending Jan. 15, unchanged from the prior week. The advance unadjusted number for persons claiming UI benefits in state programs totaled 4,593,535, a decrease of 58,900 from the preceding week. A year earlier, the rate was 4.3 percent and the volume was 5,602,357.

The total number of people claiming benefits in all programs for the week ending Jan. 8 was 9,410,977.

linky winky

[Sixstrings]

Aw Crap -- Jobless Claims Skyrocket by 51K as Phony Recovery Loses Steam[/url]

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

Surely you're wrong, Daniel.. Obama didn't even mention the 99ers the other night. Sounded to me like the recession's over.. the President said the stock market is roaring and corporate profits are doing great.

[VZR1800]

Surely you're wrong, Daniel.. Obama didn't even mention the 99ers the other night. Sounded to me like the recession's over.. the President said the stock market is roaring and corporate profits are doing great.

All thanks to Uncle Fed, who through QE 2, and soon 3, is keeping the ship afloat.

[OilFinder2]

Aw Crap, No Double-Dip in Sight -- Jobless Claims Tumble by 42K

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Jan. 29, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 415,000, a decrease of 42,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 457,000.The 4-week moving average was 430,500, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average of 429,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.1 percent for the week ending Jan. 22, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.2 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Jan. 22 was 3,925,000, a decrease of 84,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,009,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,929,500, a decrease of 50,500 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,980,000.

linky winky

One would think that DP, having made the same mistake as Sixstrings at the opening of this thread a few weeks ago, would have learned to recognize an outlyer when he saw one. But no, he decided to make the same mistake again last week. Maybe a few more times and he'll finally learn to spot one when it occurs.

[MichaelWallace]

I'm not doom and gloom, but we still need to get that number down to the low 300s or we won't see any significant change to unemployment. For now, employment remains mediocre, at best.

[peripato]

Surely you're wrong, Daniel.. Obama didn't even mention the 99ers the other night. Sounded to me like the recession's over.. the President said the stock market is roaring and corporate profits are doing great.

All thanks to Uncle Fed, who through QE 2, and soon 3, is keeping the ship afloat.

I think perhaps that should read, *shit* afloat.

[OilFinder2]

Gosh darnit, where's that double dip? Jobless Claims Tumble by 36K, falling well below 400K

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA

In the week ending Feb. 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 383,000, a decrease of 36,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 419,000.The 4-week moving average was 415,500, a decrease of 16,000 from the previous week's revised average of 431,500.

The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.1 percent for the week ending Jan. 29, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.1 percent.

The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Jan. 29 was 3,888,000, a decrease of 47,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,935,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,932,250, an increase of 250 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,932,000.

[OilFinder2]

Just for emphasis.

REAL RECOVERY PLOUGHING AHEAD!

Jobless Claims Drop to Lowest Level Since July 2008
Published: Thursday, 10 Feb 2011

New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits dropped more than expected last week to touch their lowest point in 2-1/2 years, a government report showed on Thursday, offering assurance that the labor market was strengthening despite Januarys poor jobs numbers.

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 36,000 to a seasonally adjusted 383,000, the lowest since early July 2008, the Labor Department said.

[...]

[steam_cannon]

So the 99ers aren't being counted anymore because they lost their benefits and that's supposed to be positive news? Sick.

Just for emphasis[...]

Just for emphasis, I don't think you read to the end of the article you posted.

Jobless Claims Drop to Lowest Level Since July 2008
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41508404

The number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid declined 47,000 to 3.89 million

The number of people on emergency unemployment benefits increased 100,366 to 3.76 million in the week ended Jan. 22, the latest week for which data is available.

Jobless claims drop; ranks of 99ers seeking tier 5 unemployment extension grow
http://www.examiner.com/unemployment-in ... nsion-grow

The seasonally adjusted number of initial jobless claims last week was 388,000, a decrease of 34,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 422,000, the U.S. Department of Labor reported yesterday.

However, the unemployment rate has continued to rise and is not expected to decline significantly in 2011. In November, 42% of unemployed Americans had been looking for work for six months or more, according to the latest available figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The number of 99ers -- those who have exhausted all available benefits -- will continue to rise throughout 2011.

Last month employers only added 39,000 jobs and the unemployment rate rose to 9.8 percent.

Those collecting that extended unemployment aid can get it for up to 99 weeks. Unfortunately, we are not seeing any more aid after that. (or being counted)

http://www.rantrave.com/Rant/Jobless-Cl ... 99ers.aspx

FYI OilFinder spamming with huge print is stupid. Would you like it if everyone posted that way? I think you're putting undo emphasis where it doesn't belong and you're not researching or even fully reading the articles that you're posting.

[TheAntiDoomer]

^steam cannon, you need to read this whole thread, the crazy huge letters were started by Daniel Plainview.

[OilFinder2]

^steam cannon, you need to read this whole thread, the crazy huge letters were started by Daniel Plainview.

Bingo. I'm just mocking DP's rather obnoxious posting style.

So the 99ers aren't being counted anymore because they lost their benefits and that's supposed to be positive news? Sick.

For about the bazillionth time, these are initial claims and have nothing to do with the 99ers. One only files an initial claim after one gets laid off. It has nothing to do with continuing claims.

[OilFinder2]

Just for emphasis, I don't think you read to the end of the article you posted.

Jobless Claims Drop to Lowest Level Since July 2008
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41508404

The number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid declined 47,000 to 3.89 million

The number of people on emergency unemployment benefits increased 100,366 to 3.76 million in the week ended Jan. 22, the latest week for which data is available.

Incidentally, to extrapolate on that, from the Labor Department release:

PERSONS CLAIMING UI BENEFITS IN ALL PROGRAMS (UNADJUSTED)

TOTAL
Jan. 22: 9,405,527
Jan. 15: 9,299,272
Change: +106,255
Prior Year: 11,544,866

So, total continuing claims from all programs are down more than 2 million from the same time last year. I await the doomer spin on that. Yeah, it's all because of the 99ers. Sure.

[Armageddon]

The data is for the week of February 5, when all of America was covered in a blizzard. Odd how that is not mentioned.

[OilFinder2]

The data is for the week of February 5, when all of America was covered in a blizzard. Odd how that is not mentioned.

Indeed that could be true. We'll see next week how much of an effect it had. On the other hand, the storm hit most areas early in the week, which might have given people time to go to the local unemployment office and file their claims later in the week after some of the snow had been cleared, so maybe the effect was minimal. But, maybe not.

Also, you can file for unemployment insurance online in most (all?) states these days, so if anyone got snowed in they could just file from their home computer if they wanted or needed to. For example, here is Illinois' website which lets you file a claim online. Illinois was badly affected by the storm, so anyone who was going to file a claim when the storm hit could just do it online:
http://www.ides.state.il.us/individual/online_claim.asp

[jdmartin]

A lot of these statistics are just bullshit, plain and simple. The "first time filers" for example is a complete crock of crap. Companies in the US have reached a point of no return, where any further layoffs mean either closing up shop or reduced production. Anyone still left standing has already cut as far as they can without shutting the doors. Thus, most unemployed people have been unemployed forever and either can't file anymore or have filed before. That's the same reason that overall unemployment numbers are down - a lot of people have simply dropped out of the market completely and are now magically not considered unemployed anymore.

It's really nothing more than the federal government's attempt to put a good spin on things, as they've been doing for at least the last 25 years.

[Hawkcreek]

A lot of these statistics are just bullshit, plain and simple. The "first time filers" for example is a complete crock of crap. Companies in the US have reached a point of no return, where any further layoffs mean either closing up shop or reduced production. Anyone still left standing has already cut as far as they can without shutting the doors. Thus, most unemployed people have been unemployed forever and either can't file anymore or have filed before. That's the same reason that overall unemployment numbers are down - a lot of people have simply dropped out of the market completely and are now magically not considered unemployed anymore.

It's really nothing more than the federal government's attempt to put a good spin on things, as they've been doing for at least the last 25 years.

Amen to the above - I don't understand why there is so much discussion over the numbers, since it is obvious that they are bogus.

[Daniel_Plainview]

Jobless Claims Surge Above 400K Barrier, Jumping 25,000 to 410,000

Feb 17 (Reuters) - New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, ... increasing 25,000 to a seasonally adjusted 410,000, the Labor Department said, partially reversing the prior weeks hefty decline.

Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 400,000. The previous weeks figure was revised slightly up to 385,000, from the previously reported 383,000.

The claims data covers the survey period for part of the governments employment report for February. But the correlation between claims and nonfarm payrolls has weakened somewhat. Claims 543711606

A Labor Department official said there was nothing unusual in the state-level data, adding that two states had been estimated.

The four-week moving average of unemployment claims -- a better measure of underlying trends - rose 1,750 to 417,750 last week.

The number of people still receiving benefits under regular state programs after an initial week of aid edged up 1,000 to 3.91 million in the week ended Feb. 5.

Economists had expected so-called continuing claims to rise to 3.90 million from a previously reported 3.89 million.

The number of people on emergency unemployment benefits dropped 127,386 to 3.63 million in the week ended Jan. 29, the latest week for which data is available.

Reuters

[Lore]

As I've said many a time here, the unemployment situation during this recession is a result of a long term structural change in jobs. We are not about to get back to the levels of employment, any time soon, that we once enjoyed.

Jobs that were shed are not likely to come back as employers have managed to increase profitability by keeping payrolls low through automation and global outsourcing. This is the facts that neither government or business leaders want to talk about.