Exploring Hydrocarbon Depletion
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Heineken wrote:The PO idea may not be dead, but it certainly doesn't capture my imagination the way it once did.
For now, the economy still leads and oil follows. When that situation turns around, we'll be at the peak. Who knows how long it will take. Decades.
Heineken wrote:Peak oil will happen, obviously, but it's many boom-and-bust cycles away.
Those guys are gone. I wonder if they are still hiding out at their local gun shop perusing the shelves for the lastest neat laser scopes?Pops wrote:I think the part that died was the Overnight Armageddon part, people thought (some hoped) that Mad Max was just around the corner and soon all the stuff that hacks them off would be washed away leaving a clean slate to redraw the world, in their image.
You have to sympathize with Simmons. He went nutsoid at the end, but you would have too. It was a brave thing to take on the rosy assumptions of the most powerful industry the world has ever known. "Twilight in the Desert" remains a great piece of geologic investigative journalismPops wrote:Matt Simmons (and lots of others) didn't help by spouting that oil was going to some crazy high number overnight and stay there. How a banker could think that a quick rise to $500 or $1,000/bbl could be sustained for any amount of time is beyond me. Who reading this could pay $30/gal ($1,000/bbl/42gal/bbl + something for Oh&P) next week and simply continue without making dramatic change?
It is not a magic number, but seems to be around 5% of GDP in the United States. The "Oil Expense Indicator" varies by country and seems to be a very specific function of particular cheap-oil dependency and specific infrastructure. In our own ways, the impoverished Bangladeshi and the American Consumer have similar oil dependencies. He would die if not for his shallow-water-well diesel pump and we for our daily trips to the shopping center.Pops wrote:It is pretty clear that in the short run, demand is amazingly inflexible to smaller spikes. We have after all, tens and hundreds of trillions invested in a system based on liquid fuels that touches every part of our lives. We'll cut back on nearly everything else before we do fuel. But after some magic number is reached, and we cut back on enough other stuff in order to keep the tank full, demand finally drops – mainly because the jobs related to the stuff we cut back on are pruned. Looks like $100-120/bbl might be that number right now but it could be a GDP percentage or some other magic formula. Everything is relative though and someday the price may seem amazingly high - just like I imagine $3.50/gallon for unleaded does today for those folks we once called 99ers and who we now don't call anything because they have been pruned. Eventually we are able to reshuffle our routine and eliminate the most wasteful habits, those of us who waste the most.
Key point. Not price but complexity will be our undoing. I don't believe anyone knows what the breaking point will be, where systemic collapse occurs. But it will. This is a fragile system we have designed. Unlike civilizations before us we are dependent completely on one material--oil--for our lives. We have no dachas to fall back on, no rooftop gardens to sustain us, no employment without driving around. No game in the forest. No community. Just too many people eating and breathing petroleum.Pops wrote:I think the idea of overnight armageddon, via oil price, happening to everyone all at once was just the latest in the long line of end of the world scenarios people like to fantasize about.[/color] When IT "didn't happen", EOTW hobbyist types lost interest – what fun is TEOTW if it is only the end as I Know It? Or, The End Of The World As The Guy Down The Street Who Lost His Job Knows It? If we aren't all going down to the Thunder Dome together it isn't really Armageddon is it?
couldn't agree more.Pops wrote:The thing is, peak oil is happening. It is happening to the guy down the street, to the Greeks and Brits and looks like maybe to the Chinese. If it weren't for governments inventing money, how many more would be in "official" recession? The US surely would.
We're are on the undulating plateau as expected, the only surprise at this point is the length to which the people with access to government money have gone go to throw it at Chesapeake & Co. The whole fracking frenzy and ongoing, breathless commentary on the amazing revolutionary glut indicates to me just how desperate we are to come up with a liquid solution. But declining returns mean we are using the last of the cheap oil to frack/pound sand/cook asphalt/crack corn to fill up and cruise down the road with our eyes closed yelling LALALALA at the top of our lungs pretending everything is copacetic – or better.
My thought is by the time we cruise off the $20/bbl conventional oil plateau that we've been on for the last 5 or 6 years, the proverbial chickens will be well into the evening commute and throwing the kitchen sink won't scare them away.
This IS peak oil, folks. It is happening all around you. If the end of unlimited fossil fueled growth has left you with an intact income and growing net worth count yourself lucky. And if you have truly have no worries about your kids' future, then Brother, pass that thing down my way 'cuz it's gotta be good!
I myself was a believer in “peak oil,” or at least a modified form of it. Although I had enough faith in market dynamics to know that higher oil prices would stimulate more oil production and that we weren’t going to “run out” of oil any time soon, I did think that demand from China, India and other developing countries would swamp any marginal increases in oil production that the energy sector could manage. I expected oil prices to hit a new, higher plateau — and I certainly didn’t expect a massive rebound in North American production. Well, I was wrong, and I’m honest enough to admit it.
U.S. "tight oil" output to double by 2035: EIA
The U.S. government published its first official forecast for booming "tight oil" production on Monday, estimating that shale formations such as the Bakken in North Dakota will more than double output in the next two decades.
The EIA expects tight oil to account for 20.5 percent of the 5.99 million bpd of the total it expects will be produced in the United States. The 2035 figure is lower than earlier estimates.
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