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Shale Oil Profitable at $20 Barrel Pt. 2

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

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Re:

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 14 Jul 2017, 17:54:35

creedoninmo wrote: We also have yet to see how well the shale drillers do over a multi decade period.


Those drilling Devonian shale wells after Jimmy began deregulating natural gas in the late 1970's did quite well over the past 3+ decades. Or maybe you meant those drilling shale wells in the late 1800's, and "over a multi-century period"?

Oh wait...that's right, folks around here can't be bothered with the history of a thing, as they make it up to fit their current meme.
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Re: Shale Oil Profitable at $20 Barrel Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 14 Jul 2017, 17:56:53

donstewart wrote:Art Berman; 20 dollar oil; supply and demand; etc.
http://www.artberman.com/oil-business-d ... interview/
Don Stewart


Ignorant source, previously discredited, doomers with an inability to learn, etc etc.
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Re: Shale Oil Profitable at $20 Barrel Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 14 Jul 2017, 18:04:06

shortonoil wrote:
Look Shorty alias. I'm not the one claiming that collapse or crash is right around the corner.


No one is bringing new oil on line;


Texas increasing oil production proving otherwise...

shortonoil wrote:how long do you think existing developed fields are going to last; forever?


No, but actual oil experts at the conference across town you can't go to because you would be laughed at (they know better than to pretend regression equations are predictive just as you once did) certainly had time frames on existing producing fields continuing for quite some time into the future, interesting, using you know...SCIENCE and stuff...silly experts, not knowing that the oil ignorant across town have declared low prices causing crashing demand.

shortonoil wrote: Chances are most producers are already over pumping their fields to pay the bills with $45/ barrel oil.


Not according to the experts at the conference, including 3 from the EIA discussing oil prices and costs that included OpX far less than $45/bbl....silly them..daring to collect DATA and stuff, wouldn't it be nice if they just made stuff up like project managers with no oil field drilling or production experience?

shortonoil wrote:Put your brain back in gear; you have coasted about as far as you can go.


Pot, kettle, LaRouche source expert, you want to start blaming Bush again for the end of the world....after all, it didn't happen back then when you claimed it was either...but like you said...put your brain back in gear. Regression equations aren't predictive, you knew it once, go back and read what you wrote when you KNEW something.
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Re: Shale Oil Profitable at $20 Barrel Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 14 Jul 2017, 18:08:30

kublikhan wrote:I ask you again: why do you post blatant lies than can be verified as false in 2 seconds? Are you trying to destroy what little credibility you have left?


And better yet, his own words are his worst enemy.

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Re: Shale Oil Profitable at $20 Barrel Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 14 Jul 2017, 18:10:00

I think someone should start a thread titled " all the things Shortonoil doesn't understand about oil and gas" ....would be very popular I think. :roll:

To realize just how bad the situation has gotten look at shale; an industry that has spent over $1 trillion to bring 3.5 mb/d of production online. That is a development cost of $285,714 per barrel of production.


This is a stupid statement because that investment addresses not the production of today but the total oil that will be produced in the lifetime of those wells. Press releases by publicly traded companies indicate their F&D costs for shales in the Permian are sub $20/bbl. Numerous financial analysts have pointed out breakeven costs of below $40/bbl for many of the shales.

No one is bringing new oil on line; how long do you think existing developed fields are going to last; forever?


Good god. How about all that new oil production in the Permian? Or these fields which all came on stream in 2017…Gina Krog (Norwegian N. Sea), Atrush (Kurdistan), Cayley (UK North Sea), Ungani (Australia), Kraken (UK North Sea), Cape Three Points (Ghana)?

Oil is now below its full life cycle production cost by at least $60 a barrel; its reserve replacement cost.


Well that is probably the worst example of math I have ever seen. Finding and Development costs per bbl in the Permian range anywhere from $12 = $18/bbl. What that means is if I produce a bbl of oil today I can replace it for $20 or so. Even in the expensive North Sea sector Finding and Development costs are $40/bbl which is still below $100. 3 year reserve replacement cost averages for Chevron = $29.62/bbl. Conoco Phillips = $43.62/bbl, Continental = $17.77/bbl, EOG = $ 19.35/bbl, Murphy = $25.96/bbl, Occidental = $34.59/bbl

Not only are the stockholders holders who invested long term getting hosed (think pensions),


Yeah right. Lets look at a couple, EOG if bought in 2000 and sold today would have seen an investors value increase 10 fold. Even if bought in 2009 an investor would have seen a 2.5 times increase in his initial investment. Continental is a similar story. If bought in 2009 and sold today an investor would have increased his value almost 5 times. If an investor bought XOM back in 2000 they could sell their shares at a $45/share profit. If that’s “getting hosed “ then I think you need some remedial lessons in basic stock market fundamentals. And all of that addresses a long term shareholder who buys and hangs on, not the smarter investors who average up and down on their marginal cost/share along the way.
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Re: Shale Oil Profitable at $20 Barrel Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 14 Jul 2017, 19:29:23

rockdoc123 wrote:I think someone should start a thread titled " all the things Shortonoil doesn't understand about oil and gas" ....would be very popular I think. :roll:


And quite voluminous.
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Re: Shale Oil Profitable at $20 Barrel Pt. 2

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 15 Jul 2017, 07:13:27

The world oil production of 35B must be replaced each year if we are going to have oil in the future.

So Adam and Rockdoc: How much would it cost to replace this amount of oil per barrel ?

We are trying to look at the total... while you are looking at 1% of production.

Shale gas was produced in small amounts compared to the total until 2008. Today shale gas counts for 2/3 of total nat gas production in the US.
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Re: Shale Oil Profitable at $20 Barrel Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 15 Jul 2017, 07:39:06

Yeah right. Lets look at a couple, EOG if bought in 2000 and sold today would have seen an investors value increase 10 fold.


Tesla has never turned a profit, and has had negative cash flow from day one; its stock has advanced over 30 fold since its IPO. Amazon has never turned profit, nor NETFLIX but their stock is the largest component of the S&P 500, and has been the poster boys of Wall Street. The TBTF banks went broke in the MBS market, and were handed $4.5 trillion by the FED. EOG lost money in 2015, and 2016 but its stock has advanced. You are correct, the Market is Bat Shit crazy. It rewards certain losers, and sends the bill to what used to be the winners.

If what is going on isn't enough to give one the warm and fuzzes, nothing will.

Anyway, shale is a nothing burger; after 10 years of development and over $1 trillion it is producing less than half of what Saudi Arabia exports. Sure, that's a real success story, and for some strange reason no one else in the world, except the FED funded US, has taken the shale route. Even the Chinese think its loser. They are willing to invest in Ghost Cities, but not shale. If that doesn't give one a clue as to what its worth one is driving in the dark with their lights out.
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Re: Shale Oil Profitable at $20 Barrel Pt. 2

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 15 Jul 2017, 09:01:33

shortonoil wrote:the Market is Bat Shit crazy. It rewards certain losers, and sends the bill to what used to be the winners.


"The market" != peak oil. Get back on topic before you transform into Peter Schiff.

shortonoil wrote:Anyway, shale is a nothing burger


If that's the case, then it will fail, and guess what....

Oil prices will GO UP.

So either way, you're wrong.
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Re: Shale Oil Profitable at $20 Barrel Pt. 2

Unread postby marmico » Sat 15 Jul 2017, 09:56:13

shale is a nothing burger


Global consumers appreciate the nothing burger. 80 million barrels per day x $50 per barrel x 365 days per year equals $1.5 trillion per year. Thanks for the burger, Bozo. Did you locate the missing 8.4 million barrels per day of gasoline yet, Bozo?

OMG, 54 producers had aggregate free cash flow in Q1 2017.

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Re: Shale Oil Profitable at $20 Barrel Pt. 2

Unread postby marmico » Sat 15 Jul 2017, 10:15:37

after 10 years of development and over $1 trillion


You probably have that right. Way to go Klam Klubber from Kilmarnock. In context, after those same 10 years the US economy cumulative was ~$150 trillion. In other words, shale drilling represented less than 1% of economic activity.

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Re: Shale Oil Profitable at $20 Barrel Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 15 Jul 2017, 10:34:10

Anyway, shale is a nothing burger; after 10 years of development and over $1 trillion it is producing less than half of what Saudi Arabia exports. Sure, that's a real success story, and for some strange reason no one else in the world, except the FED funded US, has taken the shale route. Even the Chinese think its loser. They are willing to invest in Ghost Cities, but not shale. If that doesn't give one a clue as to what its worth one is driving in the dark with their lights out.


Another item to add to the “shortonoil doesn’t have a clue what he is talking about” thread.
Comparing the US production in shales to Saudi Arabia is ridiculous. SA has been producing for 70 some years compared to the decade of production from the Shales.
No one else has taken the shale route? There is active programs developing the Vaca Mueta in Argentina. Contrary to your claim the Chinese have been actively exploring and producing shale gas with associated liquids in SW China for the last half decade and it continues to grow by about 50 BCF/year. Shale exploration is ongoing in Ireland, England, Germany, Poland, Spain, Algeria, Australia and as of last year Indonesia. The only reason these countries haven’t progressed to where the US is has to do with the fact they are a decade behind the game and there is a complete absence of the necessary hardware and services necessary in all of these countries.
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Re: Shale Oil Profitable at $20 Barrel Pt. 2

Unread postby donstewart » Sat 15 Jul 2017, 10:35:41

shale; less debt; more equity; negative cash flow

I said that the shale companies had been paying down debt by adding equity. I referenced some comments by Art Berman. Here are some numbers from Steve St. Angelo:

https://srsroccoreport.com/the-mighty-u ... n-in-2017/

[/quote]As a result the industry has barely improved its finances despite raising $70bn of equity since 2014.[quote]

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Re: Shale Oil Profitable at $20 Barrel Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 15 Jul 2017, 11:32:18

I said that the shale companies had been paying down debt by adding equity.

That’s ridiculous. There isn’t an investment bank in the world that would buy shares with the notion that use of proceeds was going towards reducing debt. The equity raises are all predicated on activity that will result in increased cashflow. The total revenues from that activity result in an ability to pay more for debt retirement.

Furthermore focusing on the last few years where net profits have been negative ignores all those years where net profits were positive. As an example EOG from 2005 - 2014 they increased their cummulative net profits by $44 billion. Even with the last few years of negative net profits their cummulative net profit at end 2016 was still at
positive $23 billion. Hardly a failure story.
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Re: Shale Oil Profitable at $20 Barrel Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Sat 15 Jul 2017, 12:06:46

Which is why ETP'ers and doomer always get it wrong with the O/G industry. The O/G industry is completely familiar with the boom and bust cycle in oil and gas production and plan for it to the extent that they can. Which is why Exxon, Shell, etc have been in business a real long time.

In before "This time is different" folks.
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Re: Shale Oil Profitable at $20 Barrel Pt. 2

Unread postby Yoshua » Sat 15 Jul 2017, 12:12:14

The Mighty U.S. Shale Oil Industry To Lose Another $20 Billion In 2017

https://srsroccoreport.com/the-mighty-u ... n-in-2017/
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Re: Shale Oil Profitable at $20 Barrel Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 15 Jul 2017, 12:18:43

Now who exactly is making money in the oil business at $46; this was at $53:

You guys are kind of funny, or touched in head:

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Re: Shale Oil Profitable at $20 Barrel Pt. 2

Unread postby shortonoil » Sat 15 Jul 2017, 12:33:10

Which is why ETP'ers and doomer always get it wrong


A doom is a tree in Africa that grows an editable fruit the size of an apple. Since "doomer" is not part of the English language we can assume that a "doomer" is troglodyte pig Latin for someone who eats African fruit the size of an apple.

Would anyone doing that please raise their hand.
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Re: Shale Oil Profitable at $20 Barrel Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Sat 15 Jul 2017, 12:49:10

Doomers eat a lot of crow. That much is a certainty. LOL
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Re: Shale Oil Profitable at $20 Barrel Pt. 2

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 15 Jul 2017, 13:31:41

Now who exactly is making money in the oil business at $46; this was at $53:

You guys are kind of funny, or touched in head:

Lets look at actual balance sheets for a few of these companies

BP in 2015 saw a negative results of operations (income minus all accounting costs recognized under IFRS) of -$1488 million. But of that $3671.00 is associated with DD&A which is a purely accounting measure and does not speak to cashflow from the corporation. When you take revenues and subtract production costs, exploration costs and G&A you get a positive $1,326 million.

Chevron in the same year saw negative results of operations of -$3,802 million but when you ignore DD&A and Impairments they had a positive before tax income of $9,982 million.

Exxon Mobil saw negative results of operations of -$1572 million in 2015 but when you ignore DD&A and Impairments they had a positive before tax income of $2,777 million.
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