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Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 27 May 2017, 13:49:27

"40% of the crude that now enters US refineries does not contain a sufficient enough quantity of the specific molecules needed to produce fuels." And here's another great example I was explaining to Don of the type of misleading statements that can't be documented.

Yes, the lighter oils don't have the compositions the refineries want. Just has the heavy oils don't. Which is why the refineries have processed BLENDED OILS made of the light condensate oils and the heavy oils. And the % of light oils used in the blends hasn't changed for years. Which is why the gasoline yield at the refineries have been constant at 45% for at least the last 25 years. The only difference now then before the shale boom the refineries can now get the light oil THEY HAVE ALWAYS REQUIRED domestically instead of importing it.

Since I linked in my message to Don the FACTS from the EIA backing up this statement I won't waste space here repeating.
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sat 27 May 2017, 15:31:14

Kinda weird.

That "77% of Oasis wells uneconomic" sounded odd, even though I knew Oasis has a fairly large Bakken footprint with questionable outlying acreage.

So ... I read the Seeking Alpha linked article.
That author includes an Oasis graphic showing number of wells with breakeven at $45 WTI at over 1,000 - which is more than 50% of total future locations.
This is just one more example of how posters on this site (cough pisstar) and others regularly provide data that is 100% opposite of what they are claiming.

Must be a thermodynamic!ic thang
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 27 May 2017, 15:38:05

Coffee - You missing the point: 99.8% of all the possible shale locations in the world are uneconomical at $45/bbl. Just as 99.6% of all the possible location in the world are uneconomical at $100/bbl.

I'm not teasing you. If I wanted to piss away my time I could build you the model.
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 27 May 2017, 15:55:10

Yeah, but .3% are economical at $1,000/bbl and there are about one zillion barrels of that stuff around. So the great American Oil Industry and your plushy jobs will thrive tnx to Jeff Bezos and Donald Trump's various handlers and mentors.
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 28 May 2017, 17:02:02

While, the general premise is correct that specific detailed mitigation strategies should be studied and planned, what is arriving still seems exceedingly daunting. The lack of oil as an energy source from the virtual collapse of the Oil Industry will break into civilization like a tidal wave. As necessities become scarce, social order will disintegrate further debilitating economic conditions.
See Venezuela now for peek into this downward dynamic. Expect totalitarian rule to attempt to maintain law and order. Of course, all semblance of a well functioning capitalistic market economy will be quickly fading along with trade. And without a functioning Economy and an Energy sector in disarray, it is hard not to envision chaotic, unruly and desperately deprived societies. Presumably, other first world countries will experience similar outcomes.
“When the last tree is cut down, the last fish eaten and the last stream poisoned, you will realize that you cannot eat money.”
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby Cog » Sun 28 May 2017, 17:17:28

So Mad Max eh? I'm ready for that scenario.
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 28 May 2017, 17:21:02

12366_4.jpg
12366_4.jpg (79.5 KiB) Viewed 2829 times

Cog wrote:So Mad Max eh? I'm ready for that scenario.

Are you? :-D
“When the last tree is cut down, the last fish eaten and the last stream poisoned, you will realize that you cannot eat money.”
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby donstewart » Sun 28 May 2017, 17:40:22

Robert Hirsch; Galileo; Black Cats in Dark Rooms

‘It is very difficult to find a black cat in a dark room,’ warns an old proverb. ‘Especially when there is no cat.’

Science has spent a lot of time looking for black cats in dark rooms. Phlogiston and the ether come to mind. Politicians are looking for the black cat in a dark room that will permit infinite growth on a finite planet.

Since at least the days of Robert Hirsch, and maybe back to Admiral Rickover, we have been searching for a replacement for oil I’ll let you decide for yourself whether it is like the proverb, and whether a cat actually exists.

Nigel Farage, who everyone wants to label an ‘extremist’ and consign him to one of the deeper circles of hell, talked about renewables in an address to the mainstream media. He said that unless the media get out of their bubble, they will find themselves completely irrelevant. Toward the end of the talk, he brought up the subject of renewables. He said that the media are constantly printing stories about wind farms which will power huge cities…and then he notes ‘except when the wind isn’t blowing, in which case they can’t light a cottage’. But the media never mention that little problem. He then adds ‘people want to know why, if this is all such a good idea, the electric bills keep going up.’

And here, according to Stuart Firestein, author of the book Ignorance: How It Drives Science, is the true story of how Galileo got himself in trouble:
‘the Church fathers are believed to have mostly agreed with it, being intellectuals themselves, but they just hadn’t worked out how to tell the literal Bible-believing public about it. The real objection was that Galileo, following the trend of the Renaissance occurring all around him, published this seminal work in Italian. It was the first book of science ever to be published in a vernacular language rather than in classical Latin or Greek, knowledge of which was restricted to a small class of intellectuals. It was not the ideas, heretical though they were, but rather their potentially wide dissemination that so worried the Church Fathers.’

Suppose that there is no cat. Suppose that the ideas propounded by Hirsh 15 years ago really are heretical, and really are dangerous. Do you get an idea why the modern equivalent of the Church fathers are so keen on driving nails in the coffin of the predicament Hirsh identified?

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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 28 May 2017, 19:44:42

Ecology is the new heresy. It subsumes all human endeavors to the energy flows that sustain us. Industry ecology is a whole system science that underlies all social science.

System-science tells us that is is energy (thermodynamics) is the prime mover of our built environment, not culture, economics or technology. The ownership and operation of our resources and tools (machines and networks of machines) are dependent the flow of energy through them and also through the humans that operate the system.

Just as animal populations rise and fall (as they overtake food system) so we will rise and fall as we overtake all the energy sources on the planet. The same processes are clear to those who live in and around the land.

Here local populations of foxes thrive on gophers, mice, voles, moles, and the young of larger animals. When those prey populations are decimated ALL LOCAL FOXES grow weak. ALL LOCAL FOXES become susceptible to rabies. And ALL LOCAL FOXES in the local population get sick and die. NOT THE FOXES over the mountain. Just the LOCAL FOXES. And then 3 or 4 years pass and a small breeding population starts the process again.

We are fast approaching the epic stage of humanity when our oil, which is essentially the food we feed on, has become a single food source. We are still to a certain extent LOCAL HUMANS. The US and Britain have a local energy food sources, it's abundant oil, NG and coal. Not so the poor countries. Not so the rest of the EU. I suspect that Nigel Farage understands this. Perhaps even Trump? 8O :shock: :-D
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 28 May 2017, 19:56:11

donstewart wrote:Since at least the days of Robert Hirsch, and maybe back to Admiral Rickover, we have been searching for a replacement for oil I’ll let you decide for yourself whether it is like the proverb, and whether a cat actually exists.

Don Stewart


And when the end of oil was being declared in 1886, we weren't searching for a replacement for oil?
And are you referring to Hirsch from his 2005 report, or his 1988 report when he was declaring the upcong oil crisis of the early 90's? Did you even KNOW he had been in the end of oil game that long, or have you avoided doing the homework on your sources again?
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 28 May 2017, 20:02:22

pstarr wrote:Just as animal populations rise and fall (as they overtake food system) so we will rise and fall as we overtake all the energy sources on the planet.


Fortunate then that most energy humans turn into useful stuff and do work with comes from a source not on our planet. Surprised you didn't know this, sort of hard to avoid facing the reality of it...every DAY (hint hint).
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby donstewart » Sun 28 May 2017, 20:24:53

@Adam B
I used Hirsch and Rickover as examples of the search for a replacement for oil. What's your problem with that?
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 28 May 2017, 20:45:58

AdamB wrote:
donstewart wrote:Since at least the days of Robert Hirsch, and maybe back to Admiral Rickover, we have been searching for a replacement for oil I’ll let you decide for yourself whether it is like the proverb, and whether a cat actually exists.

Don Stewart


And when the end of oil was being declared in 1886, we weren't searching for a replacement for oil?

But. But Robert Hirsch never declared the end of oil. Not as far as I can remember.

Adam12, you are an industry guy You must have his predictive date? Or mine for that matter? Tnx so much in advance :) Cheers :)
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby Midnight Oil » Sun 28 May 2017, 20:51:08

Intermission ...Keep in the back of your mind...

“It's a great country: you can say whatever you like so long as it is strictly true--nobody will ever take you seriously.”


― Edward Abbey, Desert Solitaire

Growth for the sake of growth is the ideology of the cancer cell.

One man alone can be pretty dumb sometimes, but for real bona fide stupidity, there ain’t nothin’ can beat teamwork.

Better a cruel truth than a comfortable delusion

Civilization, like an airplane in flight, survives only as it keeps going forward.EDWARD ABBEY, A Voice Crying in the Wilderness

“An economic system which can only expand or expire must be false to all that is human.” ― Edward Abbey, Desert Solitaire

Now, back to presenting the "FACTS"....
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 28 May 2017, 20:53:18

AdamB wrote:
pstarr wrote:Just as animal populations rise and fall (as they overtake food system) so we will rise and fall as we overtake all the energy sources on the planet.


Fortunate then that most energy humans turn into useful stuff and do work with comes from a source not on our planet. Surprised you didn't know this, sort of hard to avoid facing the reality of it...every DAY (hint hint).

Foxes can not live by sunlight. They must have a concentrated source of that energy convenient and dense. It comes to them as prey fat/protein which in turn is ultimately derived from plant photosynthesis. Read your Hirsch Adam. Humans will never collect enough solar energy to replace the convenient and energy dense petroleum --- also an ancient store of sunlight
Dividing the global yearly demand by 400 kW. h per square meter (198,721,800,000,000 / 400) and we arrive at 496,804,500,000 square meters or 496,805 square kilometers (191,817 square miles) as the area required to power the world with solar panels. This is roughly equal to the area of Spain.

That is just for the electricity we use. Throw in France and Germany for the gas,diesel, aviation and bunker fuel.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 29 May 2017, 06:12:24

donstewart wrote:@Adam B
I used Hirsch and Rickover as examples of the search for a replacement for oil. What's your problem with that?
Don Stewart


No problem with one of those two folks. Rickover, along with Hubbert about the same time, already had ideas and practical examples of what oil would be replaced with.

My issue with Hirsch is that he was talking about oil in his 2005 report, but not as an honest broker on what might replace it it. The fundamentals of his belief system are revealed in his history.

There is a difference between honest people asking what are we going to do next" and doomers, who are simply casting about for a means of causing the doom they already believe is coming. Believe first...rationalize second is the order they operate in. Using that metric, Rickover and Hirsch are in different categories.
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 29 May 2017, 06:16:14

pstarr wrote:
AdamB wrote:
donstewart wrote:Since at least the days of Robert Hirsch, and maybe back to Admiral Rickover, we have been searching for a replacement for oil I’ll let you decide for yourself whether it is like the proverb, and whether a cat actually exists.

Don Stewart


And when the end of oil was being declared in 1886, we weren't searching for a replacement for oil?

But. But Robert Hirsch never declared the end of oil. Not as far as I can remember.


Go whip up your strawman on Don, it is his reference.

pstarr wrote:Adam12, you are an industry guy You must have his predictive date? Or mine for that matter? Tnx so much in advance :) Cheers :)


Thanks for proving that you have no memory. I've already told you what I am not, you really do need to lay off the reefer dude.
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 11 Jun 2017, 18:12:12

Here's a quickie from Peakoilbarrel:Open Thread Petroleum, June 7, 2017 on the latest tight-shale scam from someone who knows and understand ours predicament:
Mike wrote:Its easy to waste a Sunday morning searching for shale oil funded research that substantiates one’s claims. Personally, I like people who can think for themselves. I stand by my experience drilling nearly 300 wells in my career, from 1000 ft. to 10,000 ft. deep, all kinds, and actually paying the bills with my own money…Permian wells will require over 400K BO just to reach payout and very few of them will do that

Folks concerned about their energy future, or their kid’s energy future, are inclined to be drawn to a blog and conversations about peak production issues, what things actually cost, what wells actually make, profitability, sustainability; you know, the truth. It tends to be “eco-chamber” alright. After eight years or so of data from America’s other two primary shale basins most anybody with an eight grade education can see its been a financial disaster for those companies doing the extraction. Why some folks think the Permian is going to be much different is beyond me. All this stacked “bench” BS requires additional laterals, different $5M frac’s, and will have their own economic challenges to overcome.
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― Maya Angelou
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 18 Jun 2017, 16:57:53

https://srsroccoreport.com/warning-the- ... tay-alive/
Debt ballooning does not seem very profitable to me
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Re: Shale Oil is now profitable at $20 barrel

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 18 Jun 2017, 18:52:59

onlooker wrote:https://srsroccoreport.com/warning-the-global-oil-gas-industry-is-cannibalizing-itself-to-stay-alive/
Debt ballooning does not seem very profitable to me

I look forward to your posts and support. Tnx
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