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They want to keep things going until after November 2010 for political reasons but I don't think they can hold it together for another 11 months.
Cloud9 wrote:I picked 2011 because of this:
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2007/ ... chart.html
eXpat wrote:Option ARMs, unemployment rising, record levels of debt in US, UK and several EU countries, banks closing down, etc.
That was 2009. When do you think the second wave will hit? and why?.
And what impact would that have on the chart of option ARMS you linked to?
pedalling_faster wrote:i think the question is a little im-precise - because it implies that the first wave ended.
which it never did. for example, a graph of mortgage delinquencies -
http://www.investorsinsight.com/cfs-fil ... C527F8.jpg
the delinquency rate is considerably higher now than in September October 2008 and March 2009, the 2 times when the equity markets were crashing and people were asking, "is this the second Great Depression".
so, for example, Obama gave people money to buy cars and ... they bought cars ! with a corresponding uptick in GNP numbers.
if, by "second wave", you mean, when will be people be going, "Oh, SHiT !" ... well there's a lot of people saying that now (10% official unemployment), it's just that they aren't on CNBC very often.
if, by "second wave", you mean, when will be people be saying, "Oh, DOUBLE SHiT !!!" - in the mainstream media, i don't know. when it shows up on the teleprompter, i guess.
hillsidedigger wrote:The worldwide stimulus efforts should allow a mini-boom which will last thru 2010 and 2011 with the bottom to fall out during 2012.
Kunstler wrote:For us This year, America can look for a nice lump of coal in its Christmas stocking. That lump will be called "the recovery." This recovery consists of a massive self-deception, made up of accounting tricks and falsified statistics, with a sugar-coating on top of sheer disbelief that the outcome could be anything but a particular happy ending -- namely, the continued levitation of the unsustainable.
VK/TAE wrote: A debt saturated society is thus faced with two conundrums as time progresses.
1) The ability to service the debt plus interest declines steadily over time leading to cash flow problems.
2) The usefulness of that extra dollar of debt also steadily declines. Thus we are moving towards a point where for every dollar borrowed we have a contraction (I was going to use that ghastly word 'negative growth' but decided against it) due to debt saturation.
Hence, the marginal cost of taking on one more dollar of debt will become detrimental to society as a whole, as the marginal benefit of that one more dollar is negative. This is precisely how societies decline and as in our present debt based monetary system, the principal must be paid with interest by society as a whole in one form or the other.
carbon14 wrote:Here's another cheery article but I think the cascade of collapse (Tainter is spot on) is:
Back to savage tribes but at least they didn't have NWO muppets trying to consolidate global power, debt based money to perpetuate their control, consumer/tech crap etc.
http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/12/2 ... mmies.html
*****2010 Food Crisis for Dummies*****
by Eric deCarbonnel
If you read any economic, financial, or political analysis for 2010 that doesn’t mention the food shortage looming next year, throw it in the trash, as it is worthless. There is overwhelming, undeniable evidence that the world will run out of food next year. When this happens, the resulting triple digit food inflation will lead panicking central banks around the world to dump their foreign reserves to appreciate their currencies and lower the cost of food imports, causing the collapse of the dollar, the treasury market, derivative markets, and the global financial system. The US will experience economic disintegration.
NoggersBlog wrote:Isn't it incredible how China never have so much as even a mini crop wobble, let alone a disaster?
The persistent notion that there's only $1-2 trillion in losses remaining in the banking system, as some people conclude from what Roubini and others may have stated, is false; that would be peanuts. The Federal Reserve printed $1.55 trillion to buy up toxic MBS plus Treasury paper. But the problem has not been cured, in particular: most of the toxic debt still remains hidden through the application of shady accounting practices. There is no solution in sight in the current political paradigm.
Think about it this way: the US government has implicitly and explicitly guaranteed, loaned, subsidized and given away about $12.8 trillion to banks while these banks have only $10 trillion or so in real assets. Why is the government giving so much assistance, a sum far greater then all assets combined of the US banking system?
Simple really, the derivatives aka bets are far larger than global GDP, estimated to be between $500 trillion and $1,5 quadrillion. JP Morgan alone holds $90 trillion or so in derivatives while the entire US GDP per annum is no more than one-sixth of that, at $14-odd trillion.
So those bets have gone bad and gone wrong and they have been kept hidden in the broom cupboard thanks to creative fictional accounting practices, in level 3 assets on bank balance sheets, and in off balance sheet items.
The losses are real, the bets went bad, and Washington is attempting a show of CONfidence to prevent a systemic collapse. But when Mr. Market calls the government's bluff, and he will, then people will realize the US Government is the naked emperor, with no money to back up those guarantees for failed and long dead enterprises. MORE
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