Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Rod_Cloutier » Wed 17 May 2017, 22:40:56

There is no reason not to shift the whole financial infrastructure to a place like Chicago


They'd never move it. I've been reading Trump's book 'The Art of the deal' mostly about his rise as a real estate mogul. Trump, although born and raised rich couldn't even date rich women in the 70's because he was 'New Money'. Even though he had a glamorous penthouse apartment, it was on the 'East side', Classy women wouldn't travel there with him.

There is so much 'Old money, 5th avenue' snobbery around, you think that all would just get up and move to Chicago? (The thought?)
Rod_Cloutier
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1401
Joined: Fri 20 Aug 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Winnipeg, Canada

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 18 May 2017, 16:59:56

The "move" would likely be to some emerging place like China.

London already has flood gates on the Thames which, IIRC, they are planning to make higher.

NYC will likely be much tougher.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 9530
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 20 May 2017, 11:49:10

Many of the lessons learned and applied in this Japanese city hit by a tsunami can also be used for areas threatened by sea level rise or flooding.

In Japan Tsunami City, People Power Turns Disaster Into Opportunity

http://floodlist.com/asia/japan-tsunami ... pportunity

(thanks to sig at ASIF for this)
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16842
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 23 May 2017, 16:19:31

https://robertscribbler.com/2016/03/23/ ... s-century/
Dr James Hansen — Human Warming Pushing Seas Toward Exponential Rise of Several Meters This Century
You can ignore reality but not its consequences
User avatar
onlooker
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 8202
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby vox_mundi » Wed 24 May 2017, 10:59:37

Rapid escalation of coastal flood exposure in US municipalities from sea level rise (Full Text)

Abstract:

Rising sea levels are increasing the exposure of populations and infrastructure to coastal flooding. While earlier studies estimate magnitudes of future exposure or project rates of sea level rise, here, we estimate growth rates of exposure, likely to be a key factor in how effectively coastal communities can adapt. These rates may not correlate well with sea level rise rates due to varying patterns of topography and development. We integrate exposure assessments based on LiDAR elevation data with extreme flood event distributions and sea level rise projections to compute the expected annual exposure of population, housing, roads, and property value in 327 medium-to-large coastal municipalities circumscribing the contiguous USA, and identify those localities that could experience rapid exposure growth sometime this century.

... Under worst-case scenarios, climate-driven sea level rise could exceed 2 m by the end of this century

... Miami Beach, FL, has the highest absolute Estimated Annual Exposure (EAE) jump, from 2200 in 2000 to 65,400 (35,300–79,800) in 2100.

Under RCP 8.5, Florida contains 42% of all super-threshold cities (roughly three quarters of which are on the Atlantic side), while New Jersey has another 10%. Further, 69% of all super-threshold cities are on the Atlantic coast, 23% are on the Gulf coast, and 8% are on the Pacific coast. Under RCP 2.6, while impacts diminish, these proportions remain largely consistent.

Several factors may cause actual exposure growth rates to diverge from our projections. Instability of the Antarctic ice sheets may cause sea levels to rise much faster in the second half of the century (DeConto & Pollard 2016) than under the projections used here, pointing to greater threats than we find. We do not account for waves. Furthermore, while we assume that the distribution of extreme flood heights above sea level at any given time will not change, some studies suggest that the frequency of tropical cyclones may change, and their intensities could rise (Knutson et al. 2010; Knutson et al. 2013; Emanuel 2013). Analysis by Houser et al. (2015) suggests that the overall impact of such changes in activity would likely increase expected annual coastal flood damages.

Image
“There are three classes of people: those who see. Those who see when they are shown. Those who do not see.” ― Leonardo da Vinci

Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
User avatar
vox_mundi
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3700
Joined: Wed 27 Sep 2006, 02:00:00

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 24 May 2017, 11:05:31

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/ene ... 5497216953
Scientists say the pace of sea level rise has nearly tripled since 1990
You can ignore reality but not its consequences
User avatar
onlooker
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 8202
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 24 May 2017, 12:43:43

onlooker wrote:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/05/22/scientists-say-the-rate-of-sea-level-rise-has-nearly-tripled-since-1990/?utm_term=.d35497216953
Scientists say the pace of sea level rise has nearly tripled since 1990



Damn, do I have to sell now my Florida properties? I think it's getting close.
Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Moderator
Moderator
 
Posts: 6050
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 24 May 2017, 12:55:11

Ibon wrote:
onlooker wrote:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/05/22/scientists-say-the-rate-of-sea-level-rise-has-nearly-tripled-since-1990/?utm_term=.d35497216953
Scientists say the pace of sea level rise has nearly tripled since 1990



Damn, do I have to sell now my Florida properties? I think it's getting close.

ummm, better sooner than later Ibon. Not just SLR but big economic downturn looms ahead :)
As we talked about, one bad hurricane could tilt the RE into panic or least wariness mode on the part of public and pertinent players in the RE market
You can ignore reality but not its consequences
User avatar
onlooker
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 8202
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 24 May 2017, 14:31:23

The above article postulates unprecedented SLR. It is an outlier article on the alarmist side, which is why that silly rag The Washington Post bothered to publish it. It will not likely stand up to peer review, and has not yet.

Even if you accepted the higher bound given in that article for SLR - 5.9 inches per decade - that is only about +43 inches change remaining this century, and plenty of time to relocate people, buildings, and farmlands. I estimate that on Nantucket my Grandkids will walk about 1/2 mile to the beach then, when the figure is 3/4 mile today. A few multi million dollar beach homes are lost there each decade anyways. That is less impact to the owners of such homes than on the opposite side of the island where the beach is building up and getting wider. Those folks are seeing property values plummet as they get further from the water, and storm insurance doesn't help them.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4265
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: California's Silly Valley

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 24 May 2017, 15:18:17

Ibon, the story is getting play in the Miami area, so you might want go get ahead of the stampeed!!

http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/study ... mi-9369092
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16842
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 24 May 2017, 15:35:49

dohboi wrote:Ibon, the story is getting play in the Miami area, so you might want go get ahead of the stampeed!!

http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/study ... mi-9369092


It's time for a variety of reasons, some personal but this SLR issue is definitely playing a role. Down town Fort Lauderdale is putting in high density residences and growing. Managing the short term rentals from a far is a head ache at times. The earnings are less, the taxation way up, I hate to feed the parasites.

What to do with the proceeds? Still don't have a plan
Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Moderator
Moderator
 
Posts: 6050
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 24 May 2017, 21:07:23

It's of course much easier to coach from the sidelines. Things are always a whole lot more complicated when you're in the middle of the game. Hope it all works out for the best for you and yours.
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16842
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 25 May 2017, 07:54:50

dohboi wrote:It's of course much easier to coach from the sidelines. Things are always a whole lot more complicated when you're in the middle of the game. Hope it all works out for the best for you and yours.


Yes that is true and in there is also this desire to divest ourselves down to a much simpler equation. I don't even pretend anymore to have any handle on markets and trends and timing. At this point my wife and I just want to reduce complexity in our lives and sell of assets to achieve this.
Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Moderator
Moderator
 
Posts: 6050
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 25 May 2017, 11:00:32

Ibon wrote:
dohboi wrote:Ibon, the story is getting play in the Miami area, so you might want go get ahead of the stampeed!!

http://www.miaminewtimes.com/news/study ... mi-9369092


It's time for a variety of reasons, some personal but this SLR issue is definitely playing a role. Down town Fort Lauderdale is putting in high density residences and growing. Managing the short term rentals from a far is a head ache at times. The earnings are less, the taxation way up, I hate to feed the parasites.

What to do with the proceeds? Still don't have a plan


We have a 4 unit brownstone in center city Philadelphia. SLR is not a concern. Urban unrest is. Until last year we lived in the building and that made it convienient to manage it. It works wonders when you see the delinquent every day, you can encourage compliance in subtle ways and confront when necessary.

Now that we have moved onto the boat we have a building manager who is supposed to do everything. A moderate success. The Wife now nags him rather than me, which is wonderful. He is somewhat less responsive than I which is a bit troubling.

But we are in a wonderful neighborhood and typically have young medical professionals who are not interested in screwing up their credit. Location, location, location.

But prices are up now and we have a lot of real store contact us to sell the house. My take is that the upper brackets are Leary of the market and are seeking real estate as a alternative investment. Which is to say, where do you out the proceeds?

Perhaps you just. It a different place in a different local and different neighborhood?

It it's a funny thing, clearly you don't really NEED the money, although it's nice to have. So it shows how rich you are. And how silly the riches endless pursuit of more money is. Congrats, you have a good problem.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 9530
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 25 May 2017, 13:32:48

"The Wife now nags him rather than me"

Now that is a success!! :-D :-D

Parts of Phili will, in fact, flood, even with three feet of slr. Here's the NOAA tool for expected effect of slr on the US: https://coast.noaa.gov/slr/#/layer/slr/ ... dAccretion
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16842
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 25 May 2017, 22:23:31

Y 3' of SLR I'll be long dead.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 9530
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 26 May 2017, 00:54:08

Maybe. I certainly don't wish you dead any time soon.

But just to point out...Richard Alley, perhaps the world's top glaciologist, who is near 60, when asked if he thought that Thwaites would collapse into the sea before he died, said he could no longer rule that out.

So I guess the real question is...do you feel lucky?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A732Cuuo2tI

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2015/11/ ... s-3-meters

But yeah, the highest probability is that other GW (or economic or nuclear...) mayhem will more likely have devastating effects on oldsters like us than slr will, except for those quite near sea level.

"A relatively small amount of melting over a few decades...will inexorably lead to the destabilization of the entire ice sheet and the rise of global sea levels by as much as 3 meters."
User avatar
dohboi
Harmless Drudge
Harmless Drudge
 
Posts: 16842
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 26 May 2017, 07:13:39

This is a bit off topic but you guys talking about events out living your life span got me to thinking. When you consider SLR and the suite of consequences approaching our modern civilization you run these scenarios in your mind and project into the future imaging outcomes. And then you realize your only going to be around a few more decades at most. I feel this regret that I wont be around to see where we end up. The scientific curiosity is where the regret comes from, not that I wish to live for centuries. In some ways pondering this only leads to a certain frustration, the reverse of what I felt as a kid that I would never be able to actually be in a primordial swamp full of dinosaurs!
Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Moderator
Moderator
 
Posts: 6050
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 26 May 2017, 07:38:15

I am sure this is what many scientists must be feeling now. A mix of intellectual fascination along with sheer dread knowing the full magnitude of what is coming. Some like Professor Paul Ehrlich (Population Bomb) who is about 85 years old now, know they will certainly miss the fireworks. So, you can imagine the ambiguous nature of their feelings
You can ignore reality but not its consequences
User avatar
onlooker
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 8202
Joined: Sun 10 Nov 2013, 12:49:04
Location: NY, USA

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 26 May 2017, 08:24:26

No need to imagine it, perfectly aware of it first hand.

And, if you look through your kids and grandkids eyes you can see some of what they face. So my genes will experience this dubious future. Little messengers from me going forth.
User avatar
Newfie
Forum Moderator
Forum Moderator
 
Posts: 9530
Joined: Thu 15 Nov 2007, 03:00:00
Location: US East Coast

PreviousNext

Return to Environment, Weather & Climate

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Tuike and 10 guests