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Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 16 May 2017, 13:25:58

Speaking as one who stands to benefit from SLR, I'm ambivalent on the topic. I don't like seeing forced displacement of populations, but my Nantucket property is presently 3/4 mile from the beach and getting closer all the time.

Nantucket is suffering from both real SLR and a considerable amount of self-imposed land subsidence, caused by over-exploiting the underground fresh water aquifer and by simple erosion of soils exposed by mankind as part of construction. Two miles from my Nantucket home is the Old 'Sconsett Golf Course, constructed on former heather lands in 1894 in the town of Siasconsett, MA. The greens of this course are sinking, and average probably 8-10" lower than the heather around them. This is a topic of some considerable conversation, because this amount of subsidence has happened in only 123 years, and the rain from the raised heather drains onto the greens, and both the grass of the greens and the health of the heather are adversely affected. The course is dotted with water wells with submerged pumps used to irrigate the grass. It's a microcosm of the rest of the island, including a Nantucket Town road called "Old Beach Road", which is now flooded by sea water at every especially high tide.
Image
Realisticly, the subsidence and the SLR would both have to accelerate drastically for me to have a beachfront home. But my grandkids may enjoy such - and the 34-square mile island would have shrunk to (just a guess) about 25 square miles by then. About half of Nantucket Town would either be gone, or perched on raised foundation piers, with sea water canals replacing cobblestoned streets.

Nantucket is not a so-called "barrier island". Nantucket, the adjacent island of Martha's Vineyard, and Cape Cod itself are composed of sand pushed up by the advancing glaciers of the Pliestocene Ice Age, and they are relatively young in geological terms - and largely temporary IMHO.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 16 May 2017, 13:45:02

baha wrote:I was just watching a show about Miami and sea level rise. Sure you can build up and put in pumps but what they failed to mention is the beach. The whole reason Miami is there (and many other cities) is to be at the beach...Why would people still want to live there if the beach is gone? Moved 20 miles inland...


Miami sits on porous limestone that a few hundred thousand years ago was coral reefs and is backed by a massive swamp. I have no hope for Florida south of around Orlando remaining a viable dry land area for much longer because even at current sea level the storm sewers back sea water up on city streets during king tides and in every storm surge.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 16 May 2017, 15:02:06

"...even at current sea level the storm sewers back sea water up on city streets during king tides and in every storm surge."

Excellent point.

So here is ground zero for sea level rise affecting infrastructure. And is the state responding by rationally making a strategic withdrawal from the coast to places inland and north?

No, instead they have forbidden state employees from even mentioning global warming.

Even if T's gradual movement away from threatened coastal areas was technically and logistically possible, these kind of levels of extreme denial will keep them from actually being carried out, not just in Florida, but in many other places.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 16 May 2017, 15:21:29

dohboi wrote:"...even at current sea level the storm sewers back sea water up on city streets during king tides and in every storm surge."

Excellent point.

So here is ground zero for sea level rise affecting infrastructure. And is the state responding by rationally making a strategic withdrawal from the coast to places inland and north?

No, instead they have forbidden state employees from even mentioning global warming.

Even if T's gradual movement away from threatened coastal areas was technically and logistically possible, these kind of levels of extreme denial will keep them from actually being carried out, not just in Florida, but in many other places.


Denial of reality has an end date, no matter how stubborn or short sighted you are as an individual, politician or city sooner or later nature wins and you adapt or die.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 16 May 2017, 16:58:16

Tanada wrote:
Denial of reality has an end date, no matter how stubborn or short sighted you are as an individual, politician or city sooner or later nature wins and you adapt or die.


Tanada, well said.. You should use this as your new tagline. It will remain relevant for the next couple hundred years!
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 16 May 2017, 17:12:06

Tanada,
Sounds to me like some of the argument is over the theoretical ability to move vs the political ability.

I personally lived and worked in Philly for over 30 years. Our 1887 house stands at about 35' ASL. All city revitalization is taking place on the banks of the Delaware and Schuylkill rivers or in the existing downtown. I've seen old photos of our street flooded, back when there was much more riverside development which impeded the rivers ability to flow. Raise the river a few feet and we would once again be subject to flooding.

I agree much could be done to mitigate but very little IS being done. We have had 2 warning shots, Katrina and Sandy. The effects of the warning pass nearly as soon as the news cycle.

So while in the surface it sounds like we disagree I'm not so sure we really do. At least not so much. It sounds like we agree that many cities will have sever adverse effects.

Of course I also believe that those cities may well be ghost lands before SLR has a chance due to a general collapse of the global economic system, but that's just me. ;)
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 16 May 2017, 21:34:21

What Newf said.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby clif » Tue 16 May 2017, 22:39:00

One very large unspoken idea missing from this discussion, is that the sea level cities are the centers of global trade. The actual action of that trade happens at sea level in large complex industrial settings, with infrastructure that takes years to build. All the while daily trade depends on using said infrastructure.

It's not just the docks but roads, railroads, electric and warehouse infrastructure that needs rebuilding each time you retreat due to SLR. Things will get very interesting when the energy needs of rebuilding new ports collides with the energy needs of just daily life as peak fossil fuels bites harder. Not to mention where will the required raw materials come from if world wide each country has to rebuild their ports and associated infrastructure, at the same time having to do more with less and less available energy.

This might be why the Chinese are planning their new silk road initiate to rebuild land trade routes along with sea trade routes. They don't have the head up their anus attitude about global warming and SLR that is currently in vogue in DC with the el-dunce and his crew.

It ain't all about the beach front houses but much much more that needs addressing at the same time as relocating hundreds of millions around the planet as SLR makes them homeless.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby diemos » Tue 16 May 2017, 23:01:17

Newfie wrote:I agree much could be done to mitigate but very little IS being done. We have had 2 warning shots, Katrina and Sandy. The effects of the warning pass nearly as soon as the news cycle.


Not quite. New Orleans population is down from 500 to 400 thousand.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 16 May 2017, 23:47:02

clif wrote:One very large unspoken idea missing from this discussion, is that the sea level cities are the centers of global trade. The actual action of that trade happens at sea level in large complex industrial settings, with infrastructure that takes years to build. All the while daily trade depends on using said infrastructure.

It's not just the docks but roads, railroads, electric and warehouse infrastructure that needs rebuilding each time you retreat due to SLR. Things will get very interesting when the energy needs of rebuilding new ports collides with the energy needs of just daily life as peak fossil fuels bites harder. Not to mention where will the required raw materials come from if world wide each country has to rebuild their ports and associated infrastructure, at the same time having to do more with less and less available energy.

This might be why the Chinese are planning their new silk road initiate to rebuild land trade routes along with sea trade routes. They don't have the head up their anus attitude about global warming and SLR that is currently in vogue in DC with the el-dunce and his crew.

It ain't all about the beach front houses but much much more that needs addressing at the same time as relocating hundreds of millions around the planet as SLR makes them homeless.


I don't think you quite grasp the dynamics of the beachfront. These are million dollar homes, only one of several homes owned by the wealthy. The cheap residences, condos and rental units, are not going to represent losses to anybody but the landlord and the first couple of floors of condos that flood. Venice is a place where they are being stubborn about acknowledging SLR, as once those canals were streets.

There are also the Great Lakes, which have constant levels maintained by the locks of the St. Lawrence Seaway. No SLR will effect those. Not to mention the Dutch have been farming behind dikes for centuries. The future of NYC looks like this:
Image
...and Donald Trump or his heirs will build the dikes and walls, and the taxpayers will pay the cost.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 17 May 2017, 07:35:05

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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 17 May 2017, 08:23:19

Newfie wrote:https://mobile.nytimes.com/2013/06/12/nyregion/bloomberg-outlines-20-billion-plan-to-protect-city-from-future-storms.html

http://blogs.ei.columbia.edu/2016/10/24 ... york-city/

http://theconversation.com/building-cli ... york-52363

What I'm having trouble finding is what happened. To Bloombergs plan, where it stands today.


My understanding is they had a bunch of meetings and spent a bunch of money doing studies about what they should do. Unfortunately for bureaucrats that is where their interest in problems ends, they love meetings and studies that let them kick the can down the road and not actually make decisions. If you make a decision and it turns out to be wrong you are the scapegoat for all the costs associated with the entire program. If you just do another study and never make a decision then you proclaim the results of inaction are not your fault and point at whomever the political leader on that day is.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 17 May 2017, 15:03:42

My recollection is that de Blasio gutted the program but I can't find any discussion of that.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 17 May 2017, 15:16:19

Newfie wrote:My recollection is that de Blasio gutted the program but I can't find any discussion of that.


I found an article from right after he was elected that certainly implies he gutted the program,

https://nextcity.org/daily/entry/a-few- ... nge-legacy
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 17 May 2017, 17:49:36

It interesting that he talks about abandoning the lower floors of buildings. I've heard that kind talk elsewhere. I just simply don't think it's a viable alternative.

Having steel boats I fight rust a lot. Rust wins, rust never sleeps. Structures built to withstand rust are at risk. Structures not built to resist it are at terrible risk. Then there are all the subterranean utilities. The subways are simply the most obvious. There is the power, telecom, water, sewer, etc. none of that has been built to withstand salt water immersion.

The building foundations are in rock, but if you degrade the connecting link so and structure they are no longer sound. If you abandon the tunnels and subways then how do you move folks in and out? This isn't Venice. Venice was essentially built to survive in the very environment it has, just at a lower level. It's foundations are countless micropiles of trees embedded in and preserved by the muck. 6' of more water in NYC means the tunnels, which "float" in the mud will become more bouyant, they will want to rise. That's already been an issue with the PATH tunnels with their two flooding episodes. Hell, they can't come up with the money to replace these achient tubes, how will they ever come to grips with the expense of a hugely more massive program?

Personally I think much of Manhattan is toast. They should migrate it to someplace else and just let the existing buildings revert to a disposable theme park. But they won't.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Squilliam » Wed 17 May 2017, 18:13:04

The problem with New York is once they move they are kind of toast. There is no reason not to shift the whole financial infrastructure to a place like Chicago. Unless they all decide to make the move at the same time to the same place, then they have the problem of them saying 'uncle' and leaving one at a time. There is no impetus then to recreate New York, so New York would effectively be finished. Either they stay or they admit defeat.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 17 May 2017, 18:19:55

Squilliam wrote:There is no impetus then to recreate New York, so New York would effectively be finished.


But just imagine the kayaking down the Avenue of the Americas.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 17 May 2017, 18:53:03

KaiserJeep wrote: Venice is a place where they are being stubborn about acknowledging SLR, as once those canals were streets.

Where do you get your data for such statements?

  • https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/jun/16/inside-venice-bid-hold-back-tide-sea-level-rise
  • https://www.amazon.com/Venice-Shall-Rise-Again-Engineered/dp/012420144X/ref=sr_1_fkmr0_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1495062871&sr=8-1-fkmr0&keywords=venice+documentary+sea+level+rise
  • https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MOSE_Project
  • If you google: 'Sinking City of Venice', you'll find a nice NOVA PBS documentaty on the subject, I got plenty of hits for it on Youtube
  • I saw some other documentary on Venice and the MOSE project and interviewing a bunch of Venetian citizens like shopkeepers who hate the flooding. (I can't find it now, but I'm pretty sure I saw it on Netflix or Amazon in the past year).

Whether they will be successful for the short, intermediate, or long term, in protecting Venice from the sea is (IMO) an open question. But acting like Venice is denying SLR doesn't seem to square at all with what's going on there.

They're spending $billions on the MOSE project (moveable barriers to block off the sea across inlets during the highest tides), since 2003, which according to the documentaries I saw keep being delayed due to lack of enough funding and consistent interest.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 17 May 2017, 19:43:24

OS, I only meant that the city has had canals for hundreds of years, without moving. That is being stubborn.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby clif » Wed 17 May 2017, 22:34:23

I don't think you quite grasp the dynamics of the beachfront.


Wasn’t discussing beachfront but the special places at sea level where the vast majority of international trade happens. And the associated problem SLR creates there. I was quite specific.

You fail to notice or decided to totally ignore this for some reason.
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