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Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Mon 15 May 2017, 16:27:39

If, when, maybe, could be, projections show, don't sound very definitive to me.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 15 May 2017, 18:07:16

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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 15 May 2017, 18:11:32

Cog wrote:If, when, maybe, could be, projections show, don't sound very definitive to me.


I don't hear any "maybe, could be" in these projections. It is "when" which we don't know.

I understand you like very definitive projections so here is one......at some point in time SLR will exceed our cities ability to cope resulting in mass migrations and loss of Infrastructure. Many folks will die, many more will be driven into poverty.

Not likely to happen in our life time. But the exact timeline is to chaotic to predict. Kind of like playing dice, play long enough and you will eventually roll snakes eyes. 100% guaranteed. When? Not predictable.

While in the Bahamas recently we read a geology book about the islands. There is solid geological evidence of numerous past step changes in sea level of several feet. So we have record that it occurs.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Mon 15 May 2017, 18:45:30

Of course it occurs but there is no evidence that any dramatic and doom-laden sea-level rise is happening now or even likely to happen.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby kiwichick » Mon 15 May 2017, 20:16:29

the quote re pigeons seems apt
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 15 May 2017, 20:36:25

Cog wrote:Of course it occurs but there is no evidence that any dramatic and doom-laden sea-level rise is happening now or even likely to happen.


Seriously? Tell me you are just trolling and don't mean that.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 15 May 2017, 22:14:43

Cog wrote:....there is no evidence that any dramatic and doom-laden sea-level rise is happening now or even likely to happen.


There is plenty of evidence that sea level rise is happening now and the rate of sea level rise will increase in the near future.

I'm certain the effects of sea level won't be "dramatic" or "doom-laden" where you live in 1500 km from the ocean and hundreds of feet above sea level in the midwest, but the effects of sea level rise are already having significant effects over huge regions of low lying coastal areas, such as the Nile Delta, Ganges Delta, Mekong Delta, etc. as well as on coastal cities.

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Question #3. For 10 points discuss the effects of sea level rise on Brisbane, Australia

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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Tue 16 May 2017, 04:56:27

All the doomer scenarios concerning Brisbane, rely on some hypothetical big melting action in Antarctica, related to huge temperature spikes, that also isn't happening. Brisbane is fine.

Do I get my 10 points now?
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 16 May 2017, 07:40:57

Out of 1,000 possible?

You don't even get a participation ribbon.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Tue 16 May 2017, 08:28:25

Everyone gets a participation ribbon nowadays. Where is my safe space? I'm feeling triggered.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 16 May 2017, 09:29:19

OK Cog. Contribute or stand aside. At this point you are clearly trolling.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 16 May 2017, 10:02:56

Newfie wrote:OK Cog. Contribute or stand aside. At this point you are clearly trolling.

As a moderator you have responsibility to call out Cog's behaviour wherever it happens. He and his cohorts makes any serious discussion re peak oil vitually impossibe. Tnx
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 16 May 2017, 11:16:22

I have to say, Tanada you live in a dream land
All of these cities will have to make some very hard choices about how to get through SLR, either by migrating the city wholesale up slope, or attempting to build defenses like New Orleans which is about 75% below sea level already.


Where will the energy come from for such a massive change. Fusion? Our cities are rusted messes. We don't repair/replace our rotting infrastructure. Been inside a real city in the United States lately? Not those little 'revitalized' Starbuck/millennial tourist zones. Have you been in the real giant worn-out sprawl that incircles every cute restaurant district. It is all crumbling. Potholes are not repaired, building are old, tired, energy leaks. Bridges, sewer systems, water supply all old, tired, ready to be fixed.

And you see a new city up on the hill? Reading your Reagan? lol Or replace and build new dykes. Never in a million years
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 16 May 2017, 11:24:38

Cog wrote:...the doomer scenarios concerning Brisbane, rely on some hypothetical big melting action in Antarctica, related to huge temperature spikes, that also isn't happening.


I'm going to give you a 2 out 10 on that question---.

"Melting action" in Antarctica is not hypothetical. Surface melt is occurring in many areas, and multiple ice shelves have collapsed.

Most sea level rise comes from melting in Greenland--not Antarctica.

You don't need "huge temperature spikes" for melting to occur....just more gradual warming.

At this point the consensus scientific scenario is for things to continue along the same path as now.

The planet has already warmed---it continues to get warmer.

We've already burned FF and put CO2 into the air and we keep doing it.

Sea level is already rising and it continues to rise.

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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Tue 16 May 2017, 11:42:02

At either less than 2mm per year or slightly above 3mm per year, depending on your definition. I think I'll have a Coke.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Cog » Tue 16 May 2017, 11:45:34

pstarr wrote:
Newfie wrote:OK Cog. Contribute or stand aside. At this point you are clearly trolling.

As a moderator you have responsibility to call out Cog's behaviour wherever it happens. He and his cohorts makes any serious discussion re peak oil vitually impossibe. Tnx


I have cohorts? I'm no tribune. A centurion maybe.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 16 May 2017, 11:52:04

Yeah Cog, that's you: ribunus cohortis urbanae

very urbane very sophisticated for a Trumpster lol
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 16 May 2017, 12:03:28

pstarr wrote:I have to say, Tanada you live in a dream land
All of these cities will have to make some very hard choices about how to get through SLR, either by migrating the city wholesale up slope, or attempting to build defenses like New Orleans which is about 75% below sea level already.


Where will the energy come from for such a massive change. Fusion? Our cities are rusted messes. We don't repair/replace our rotting infrastructure. Been inside a real city in the United States lately? Not those little 'revitalized' Starbuck/millennial tourist zones. Have you been in the real giant worn-out sprawl that incircles every cute restaurant district. It is all crumbling. Potholes are not repaired, building are old, tired, energy leaks. Bridges, sewer systems, water supply all old, tired, ready to be fixed.

And you see a new city up on the hill? Reading your Reagan? lol Or replace and build new dykes. Never in a million years


There you go again making stuff up just so you can complain about it. As the leading complainer about infrastructure around these parts I am well aware of urban decay and have written extensive posts about it. Of course that is a red herring that has nothing at all to do with sea level rise. Unlike people around here who have their blinders firmly set in place I see quite a bit of construction going on around the periphery of existing cities. This makes my statement about cities moving up slope plainly simple to any but the most closed minds. The cities with access to land up slope already built suburbs on those adjoining lands and in some cases incorporated those suburbs into the 'city' proper as they grew from simple housing locations into functional urbanities in their own right.

As I stated, the vast majority of coastal communities will just keep building up hill and gradually migrate as need be. Only a few that are wealthy and stubborn, or that receive subsidies from taxpayers on the federal level, will be extensively defended because it simply isn't worth the cost.

As a rule of thumb solid well built structures are expected to have a 50-60 years useful life after which they are expected to be demolished and replaced. This has been the practice in large cities for over a century at least in the USA. Next time you go to the 'big city' Pete count how many structures other than sky scrapers there are that exceed 60 years of age in the down town area. Even skyscrapers are not 'forever' buildings, if the structure is not an icon like the Chrysler Building or the Empire State Building the odds are pretty good it will be torn down and replaced when it gets past its useful lifetime instead of expensively remodeled.

Why are you dedicated to the idea that city governments in the 2020's or even now will refuse to encourage skyscraper construction in their up slope territories? NYC is a special case because it is built on a set of islands with the bulk centered around Manhattan. Philadelphia on the other hand is a river mouth community where giving up the mile closest to the Atlantic and turning it all into vacant parkland while building new structures up river makes eminent amounts of sense. Will they do that before sea level rise forces them too? Probably not because nearly all of our elected officials world wide are very short sighted and see only the next election cycle and no further. In some ways I think our country would be much better off with greatly longer office terms so the politicians could spend time actually governing instead of constantly campaigning.
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby baha » Tue 16 May 2017, 12:19:55

I was just watching a show about Miami and sea level rise. Sure you can build up and put in pumps but what they failed to mention is the beach. The whole reason Miami is there (and many other cities) is to be at the beach...Why would people still want to live there if the beach is gone? Moved 20 miles inland...
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Re: Sea Level Rise Pt. 2

Unread postby pstarr » Tue 16 May 2017, 12:20:12

Tanada wrote:Unlike people around here who have their blinders firmly set in place I see quite a bit of construction going on around the periphery of existing cities.
What you call periphery is what city planners call suburbia. Stealing new flat real estate (previously valuable farm land) and planting stick-frame houses down is not urban. Not the same as digging up, or replacing city sewers, underground electric. You are talking about new suburbia . . . the greatest misallocation of wealth in the history of mankind.

Tanada wrote:As I stated, the vast majority of coastal communities will just keep building up hill and gradually migrate as need be. Only a few that are wealthy and stubborn, or that receive subsidies from taxpayers on the federal level, will be extensively defended because it simply isn't worth the cost.

New sewer lines up hills? Skyscrapers on hills? It's even difficult to build 3 or 4 story apartment on hills. A few places in the US, not common. San Fran, Pittsburgh. How many others? We are not talking about trophy homes in the LA hills but millions of American lives in dense old urban apartment buildings.

A
Tanada wrote:s a rule of thumb solid well built structures are expected to have a 50-60 years useful life after which they are expected to be demolished and replaced. This has been the practice in large cities for over a century at least in the USA. Next time you go to the 'big city' Pete count how many structures other than sky scrapers there are that exceed 60 years of age in the down town area. Even skyscrapers are not 'forever' buildings, if the structure is not an icon like the Chrysler Building or the Empire State Building the odds are pretty good it will be torn down and replaced when it gets past its useful lifetime instead of expensively remodeled.
you apparently have never spent time in cities. You are a suburbanite. I could take you on a walking tour of San Franciscio or New York City (don't forget the Bronx, Staten Island, Brooklyn and Manhattan north of 57th street) and I challang you to find homes less than 75-100 years old
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