Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Say Goodbye to Sunspots Pt. 2?

Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby Lore » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 09:47:54

augjohnson wrote:It's sad when I have more respect for a "denier" such as Cog than I do for some of the most ardent "believers" of AGW. Cog has done far more to reduce his fossil-fuel usage and CO2 emissions than almost all "believers". The hypocrisy of most "believers" just destroys their credibility!


That is sad, very sad.... :(
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
User avatar
Lore
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 9032
Joined: Fri 26 Aug 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Fear Of A Blank Planet

Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 11:34:41

dohboi wrote:no scientific body of national or international scientists rejects the findings of human-induced effects on climate change


And none of that precludes the statement that, "absent human emissions of CO2/Methane/etc, a cyclical return to an ice age could be expected." We've been mucking the place up, not just since the 1800's; we've been mucking it up, nontrivially for a good 10,000 years. I still don't know that I buy the sun min/max as a substantial contributor to glacial/interglacial cycles; CO2, natural particulates, various feedbacks, and orbital changes seem much more substantial. But cause isn't the point.

The point is, that if we weren't screwing the place up, we'd be on a nice gentle slope towards a glacial period, which is a GOOD thing for natural, normal hominids. It could have resulted in any number of great things over a biologically significant time period; maybe even some species divergence, and another iterative step towards real intelligence and awareness.

But nope.

We pooped in the atmosphere, and now its gonna slow-bake industrial civilization.

Its irritating that the denier crowds bring it up, as if it were a counter to global warming, because it allows the idea of "ice age" as something humans need saving from, to propagate. No homo species needs any saving from an "ice age"; we are an ice age set of species. It might be kinda hard on some of our current toys, but we'd make new toys, have new games, and new sports. But we'd be fine. Warming though... not fine.

Here's a reputable chart of glacial/interglacial thing. CO2s' plotted with it vary between 180'sh - 290'ish. Homo Sapiens came to exist at 250k, kinda the middle of the chart. This is the world we are evolved/made for. Varying between very cold, and extremely, hideously cold. And even in the context of that very cold.. we still have to be able to sweat liters of water a day for evaporative cooling and are essentially furless because it would interfere with heat dissipation.

Image

That's all very recent history in geological / climatical scales. But there's a nagging problem. CO2 is not 280 today. Its 400. And rising at "Ludicrous Speed" to snatch a humor.

THAT world is very different. There aren't glacials and interglacials, there's not cold and very cold. Its just hot. Hot enough to leave vast areas of the earth completely uninhabitable by anything other than a human enclosed in a life support system suitable for deployment on Mars. Yes, I still think some humans can make a go at it in the Arctic, and maybe Antarctica depending on timing, soil creation, and marine life in the Southern ocean.... But it won't be the Earth any hominid has known.

There won't be any more ice ages. Not for millions and millions of years.

And we did it. We deleted our habitat.
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
User avatar
AgentR11
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6014
Joined: Tue 22 Mar 2011, 08:15:51
Location: East Texas

Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 11:37:33

augjohnson wrote:It doesn't take a very complicated google search of "coming ice age 1970" to find many, many articles and publications in both popular press and scientific journals of such things (complete with page scans), yet there's the massive denial that such things exist, just as JMG said in his post. These are the articles and publications that the deniers keep bringing up as evidence that AGW is phony. These vociferous denials of things that exist just fuels the deniers fury.

I googled, but didn't see any bibliography of peer-reviewed papers. Maybe you could give us a link.
"We have a forthcoming Darwinian opportunity at hand"

– Rod Cloutier
User avatar
Keith_McClary
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7274
Joined: Wed 21 Jul 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Suburban tar sands

Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 12:25:21

Nice points, Agent, and well put, as usual.
User avatar
dohboi
Master
Master
 
Posts: 15354
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 14:51:44

Again, it just boggles the mind. For many of you, reality IS what you read on the net.

I told you of actual human experiences in the USA in the 1960's and 1970's. I remembered them because I lived them. Some few of you also had dim recollections of the actual events and searched and found proof that had not been repressed by embarrassed "scientists" who then thought mankind was inducing an Ice Age and now think AGW is happening. Speculation on my part, but I think that they were embarrassed to be so wrong, and with so many people today believing that reality and what is recorded online are the same, they get away with a rank deception and many of you are personally willing to give them a pass for lying outright and online about prior beliefs.

Then there are those of you who will give these science charlatans a pass, ignore past behaviors, ignore prior mistakes, and insist that the most current version of whatever they are saying is the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. That science is practiced by men, fallible and error-prone, and that science has a past history of being wrong since the ancient Greeks invented it, does not matter to you.

As for those of you who now talk about "Climate Change" instead of AGW, and thereby admit openly that you do not have a clue about whether the carbon-forcing you are screaming about ultimately results in global cooling or warming, congratulations on being only half as ignorant as the AGW fanboys you see so prominently displayed here in my new thread.

I have enjoyed kicking you fanboys again. Those of you who have returned ad hom attacks on me personally can now marinate in the sure and certain knowledge that I never sank as low as you in my arguments. Although none of you changed your minds, which I have understood is going to be the case for years, because the "Science of AGW" fills an empty spot in your soul left by religion - which spot has been instilled in you by evolution because those hominids with religion outlived those without it - I found it personally rewarding to kick around your illogical and somewhat bizarre beliefs. Again:

Image

Now I must venture out into the real world and purchase groceries and pharmaceuticals for an ailing spouse. We have had a solid two week period of nominal temperatures and modest rainfall amounts here - no signs of climate change whatsoever. Of course, I am unsurprised.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3134
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: California's Silly Valley

Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 14:56:11

Kaiser if you are convinced you are right and the others are wrong why do you care what they think?
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
User avatar
Subjectivist
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3621
Joined: Sat 28 Aug 2010, 06:38:26
Location: Northwest Ohio

Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 15:10:36

Here's let's try to unpack some reasoning that is literally psychotic.

For instance, there was a report from the early 70s that said we might enter a new little Ice Age, and, guess what, the 70s were quite cold. I remember it well. We did epic sled rides of a couple hundred yards, taking jumps, trekking back uphill like we were little Sherpas or something.

Image

But then it started getting warm in the 1980s, and there were winters where even Adirondack ski resorts closed for lack of snow, and the warming continued.

Now the people who say "But scientists were predicting an Ice Age in the 70s" are making the case that because it got it warmer that "proves" there is no warming.

That's just psychotic quality thinking right there.
User avatar
PrestonSturges
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6052
Joined: Wed 15 Oct 2008, 02:00:00

Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby Lore » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 15:36:08

Subjectivist wrote:Kaiser if you are convinced you are right and the others are wrong why do you care what they think?


Because he really fears he may be wrong and is looking for someone, somehow to justify his position thereby reinforcing his long held deeply invested beliefs. It's a physiological defense response.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
User avatar
Lore
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 9032
Joined: Fri 26 Aug 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Fear Of A Blank Planet

Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby Apneaman » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 15:50:14

Another one for you kisertard and othertards


Methane excess in Arctic surface water- triggered by sea ice formation and melting

http://www.nature.com/articles/srep16179
Apneaman
permanently banned
 
Posts: 455
Joined: Wed 08 Oct 2014, 00:24:47

Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 15:54:42

Apneaman wrote:Another one for you kisertard and othertards
Methane excess in Arctic surface water- triggered by sea ice formation and melting
http://www.nature.com/articles/srep16179


Because you insult people without being specific; I'm going to assume you're aiming at me.

How is what I wrote in any way contradicted by methane releases in the arctic?
Its not. They are entirely, 100% consistent. A cyclical move to another glacial phase would most certain occur absent human emissions of CO2/CH4.

Methane releases in the arctic do not discount that in any way. It only shows the progression of global warming which has long since removed any possibility of humanity being saved by another glacial period.
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
User avatar
AgentR11
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6014
Joined: Tue 22 Mar 2011, 08:15:51
Location: East Texas

Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby Cog » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 16:01:31

Lore wrote:
augjohnson wrote:It's sad when I have more respect for a "denier" such as Cog than I do for some of the most ardent "believers" of AGW. Cog has done far more to reduce his fossil-fuel usage and CO2 emissions than almost all "believers". The hypocrisy of most "believers" just destroys their credibility!


That is sad, very sad.... :(


I'm pretty sure he is referring to KaiserJeep and not me. Perhaps all of us deniers look alike on line? :-D I do try to keep a low carbon footprint, but not because I believe in AGW but because I am cheap.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7199
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Metro-East Illinois

Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 20:03:02

http://graphics.latimes.com/exxon-research/

Duane LeVine, Exxon’s manager of science and strategy development, gave a primer to the company’s board of directors in 1989, noting that scientists generally agreed gases released by burning fossil fuels could raise global temperatures significantly by the middle of the 21st century — between 2.7 and 8.1 degrees Fahrenheit — causing glaciers to melt and sea levels to rise, “with generally negative consequences.”
User avatar
PrestonSturges
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6052
Joined: Wed 15 Oct 2008, 02:00:00

Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby dissident » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 23:47:31

http://www.skepticalscience.com/ice-age ... -1970s.htm

Image

The whole "scientists predicted global cooling during the 1970s" is a denier trope.
User avatar
dissident
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4531
Joined: Sat 08 Apr 2006, 02:00:00

Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Sat 14 Nov 2015, 02:03:02

dissident wrote:http://www.skepticalscience.com/ice-age-predictions-in-1970s.htm

Image

The whole "scientists predicted global cooling during the 1970s" is a denier trope.


There are two parts to the denier trope:
1) Just the ignorance and deliberate lying
2) The claim that we see global warming ( something ... something .... 1970s ... something) instead of cooling somehow proves that there is no global warming. Got that? deniers say global warming is debunked by global warming.
User avatar
PrestonSturges
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6052
Joined: Wed 15 Oct 2008, 02:00:00

Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sat 14 Nov 2015, 10:41:10

Just because the deniers hijack something and twist it; does not imply that what they hijacked is false or misleading.

That they found something poorly written in a non-authoritative source in the 1970s; doesn't invalidate a rational discussion of glacial / interglacial cycles. Especially important now I think, because the record is mostly in ice, that we, as a species are losing access to at a rapid rate. That is research that must be done in this generation and the next, because after that, there will be no more ice-core data collection relevant to the issue; it'll just be gone.

The twist by the deniers, is that they of course assert that these cycles some how are relevant to AGW, even though the forcing related to a glaciation is miniscule compared to the forcing related to going from 280->400 ppm CO2.

What's sad, is that with what we know now, we could have locked the atmosphere in at 250-300 ppm, and had an eternal, comfortably cool Earth to enjoy, with warm spots, and icey spots, and snowy spots to ski on. I kinda wonder if gentle ag, with limited meat production would have been a perfect match of input vs the sinks for CO2. That would be a really depressing result; that we had a default Eden... and gave it up for plastic toys.
Yes we are, as we are,
And so shall we remain,
Until the end.
User avatar
AgentR11
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6014
Joined: Tue 22 Mar 2011, 08:15:51
Location: East Texas

Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 14 Nov 2015, 10:44:52

"we had a default Eden... and gave it up for plastic toys."

Again, very nicely put.

As Wendel Berry put it:

"We thought we were getting something for nothing, but we were getting nothing for everything."
User avatar
dohboi
Master
Master
 
Posts: 15354
Joined: Mon 05 Dec 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Sat 14 Nov 2015, 12:51:36

Meh, we still would have reproduced until we were all shoving each other into the polluted sea.

Image

Human consciousness may be the ultimate evolutionary dead end - created by chance, it allowed us to gain the advantage just long enough to destroy our environment.
User avatar
PrestonSturges
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6052
Joined: Wed 15 Oct 2008, 02:00:00

Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby Lore » Sat 14 Nov 2015, 15:07:40

I imagine most sentient beings reach our point in the universe with similar results and I would also guess few make it beyond.
The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
User avatar
Lore
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 9032
Joined: Fri 26 Aug 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Fear Of A Blank Planet

Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby PeterEV » Sat 14 Nov 2015, 17:39:41

There was NO period when scientists spoke with equal vigor about cooling. That statement is absolute nonsense.


The one period where global cooling was raised was from around the late 1960's(?) and it sure did not have the religious overtones and fervor of today's global warming "debate". Popular Science may have had an article on it but it was definitely short lived. Of course, we did not have the Internet back then and I think we were more civil to one another.

I brought up Zharkova's paper a couple of month's ago. Her main premise was that two magnetic phases would be 180 degrees out of phase causing a big lull in sunspot activity. The last time this occurred was during the Maunder Minimum, about 400 years, which started about half way through the Mini Ice Age. In Wiki, there was some speculation that the phenomena **might** have an effect on cooling.

This raises a number of questions as to what might be the mechanism behind such an effect. The sun's magnetic field could have an effect on the earth's magnetic field. What would that do the to earth's surface temp? With the decrease in sunspot activity, what would the energy distribution output look like as it reached the earth? What effect would that have on various molecules both in the atmosphere, in the oceans, and on the surface of the planet?

We know that the AMO has an effect on temperature change rate. Searching on Tisdale and AMO leads to a graph that shows this effect. This does not negate the overall effect of CO2, methane and water vapor has on temperature rate changes.

It will be interesting to see what effects Zharkova prediction, if it transpires, has on global warming. We'll have a better idea of the dynamics back during the Mini Ice Age and the Maunder Minimum.
PeterEV
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 110
Joined: Sat 14 Sep 2013, 23:10:56
Location: Central North Carolina

Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Sat 14 Nov 2015, 18:00:41

PeterEV wrote:
There was NO period when scientists spoke with equal vigor about cooling. That statement is absolute nonsense.


The one period where global cooling was raised was from around the late 1960's(?) and it sure did not have the religious overtones and fervor of today's global warming "debate". Popular Science may have had an article on it but it was definitely short lived. Of course, we did not have the Internet back then and I think we were more civil to one another.


Since you aren't reading the thread ..... a couple people wrote articles about cooling because the 60s and 70's were chilly. But nobody suggested that an ice age was closer than centuries in the future. Thre was pretty much no public interest, and no movies, television series, and very little fiction.

There were a couple science fiction stories about ice ages in the distant future or because a rogue planet pushed earth out of it's orbit. But nobody seems to have ever suggested the earth was plunging into an ice age, not even in science fiction.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/2646087/posts
Last edited by PrestonSturges on Sat 14 Nov 2015, 18:05:49, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
PrestonSturges
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6052
Joined: Wed 15 Oct 2008, 02:00:00

PreviousNext

Return to Environment

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: onlooker, vtsnowedin and 5 guests