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Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Thu 12 Nov 2015, 22:25:31

augjohnson wrote:On Cooling, I think that John Michael Greer spoke quite eloquently to in his post of June, 2014. The scientists themselves have created their own problem. I myself remember the pronouncements that people like Kaiser Jeep and others remember. However, I also understand how science works, as new data and the like are found, incorrect ideas are changed. This is something that is not well communicated to the general public. Just because there once was a widely written about idea that there was a "Luminiferous Æther", that Light, radio waves and the like traveled in, that doesn't mean that that idea is still valid.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luminiferous_aether

http://thearchdruidreport.blogspot.com/2014/06/the-stories-of-our-grandchildren.html

That said, there were a few jarring moments, and one of them happened in the interval between my talk on dark ages and Dr. Mark Cochrane’s excellent presentation on the realities of climate change. In the Q&A session after my talk, in response to a question from the audience, I noted how the prestige of science among the general public had taken a beating due to the way that scientific opinions handed down to the public as proven fact so often get retracted after a decade or so, a habit that has caused many people outside the scientific community to treat all scientific pronouncements with skepticism. I cited several examples of this, and one of them was the way that popular works on climate science in the 1970s and 1980s routinely claimed that the world was on the brink of a new ice age.

Mention the existence of those claims nowadays and you’ll inevitably get denounced as a climate denialist.


Well the blog you quote (which is usually better than that) says that people listen to reporters rather than scientists and then blame the scientists for the mangled story. And you might "remember what scientists said" except were you really reading scientific papers as a child or was it just Parade magazine in the Sunday papers? Got vivid memories of how scientists said these things? No, no you don't. You might think you do, and it probably starts to seem awfully real after you all tell each other that your remember the same thing, which is itself something you read on right wing blog or something, which adds yet another layer of fantasy.
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Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 12 Nov 2015, 22:26:37

There was NO period when scientists spoke with equal vigor about cooling. That statement is absolute nonsense.

That blog was written with the intent to sell that nonsense.
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Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby augjohnson » Thu 12 Nov 2015, 22:34:27

And you might "remember what scientists said" except were you really reading scientific papers as a child or was it just Parade magazine in the Sunday papers? Got vivid memories of how scientists said these things? No, no you don't. You might think you do, and it probably starts to seem awfully real after you all tell each other that your remember the same thing, which is itself something you read on right wing blog or something, which adds yet another layer of fantasy.


Wow, what an asshole! In the late 1970's and early 1980's I was working on the 4th floor of the north wing of the PAS (Physics & Atmospheric Science) building of the University of Arizona in the Atomic & Molecular Physics group (Dr. WIllis Lamb & Dr. William Wing). It was a couple flights of stairs up to the Atmospheric Sciences dept. on the 6th floor. Plenty of scientists there to have casual conversations with.

You just proved JMG's statement!

BTW, I understandAGW, it IS happening.
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Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 12 Nov 2015, 22:36:25

Right. Give me a break. Just another denier trying to sell nonsense the has been repeatedly debunked. While pretending to be sympathetic to the other side.
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Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 12 Nov 2015, 22:39:56

KaiserJeep wrote:I was not reading scientific journals in 8th grade, nor were you, I'm sure. I was reading National Geographic, Scientific American, Popular Science, Astronomy, and Popular Electronics - and quite a few comic books, for that matter. Point being, the adult authors of those popular news articles were reading published papers, and were interviewing supposed "expert scientists". That does not change the facts - the topic of a man-induced ice age was all over all the media - even Arthur Godfrey, a popular radio host, was interviewing professors and weather experts on the air. Walter Cronkite, the "most trusted man in America" was doing online TV specials.

OK, so the media were correct back when you were a tad, but wrong today?
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Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 12 Nov 2015, 22:44:01

the topic of a man-induced ice age was all over all the media


There was one book, by a non-scientist, and one article in Newsweek about the book, and that was it. And nowhere did it say man-induced. Go sell your bunk elsewhere.
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Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Thu 12 Nov 2015, 22:44:47

augjohnson wrote:Wow, what an asshole! In the late 1970's and early 1980's I was working on the 4th floor of the north wing of the PAS (Physics & Atmospheric Science) building of the University of Arizona in the Atomic & Molecular Physics group (Dr. WIllis Lamb & Dr. William Wing). It was a couple flights of stairs up to the Atmospheric Sciences dept. on the 6th floor. Plenty of scientists there to have casual conversations with.

You just proved JMG's statement!

BTW, I understandAGW, it IS happening.


Oh so you were an undergraduate (or whatever)and the scientists in a different department were all buzzing about the looming Ice Age and you just couldn't help but hear about it from a different floor because they spend all their time talking to undergrads? Is your neighbor also a retired CIA official who tells you that the Chinese have invaded Colorado? That's the one I always hear.
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Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 12 Nov 2015, 22:47:43

And here's what he has to say now:

https://www.insidescience.org/content/m ... 2353320754

"My 1975 'Cooling World' Story Doesn't Make Today's Climate Scientists Wrong "

It's time for deniers of human-caused global warming to stop using an old magazine story as ammunition against the consensus of today's climate scientists.


"The central fact is that, after three quarters of a century of extraordinarily mild conditions, the Earth seems to be cooling down. Meteorologists disagree about the cause and extent of the cooling trend, as well as over its specific impact on local weather conditions. But they are almost unanimous in the view that the trend will reduce agricultural productivity for the rest of the century." – Newsweek: April 28, 1975

That's an excerpt from a story I wrote about climate science that appeared almost 40 years ago. Titled "The Cooling World," it was remarkably popular; in fact it might be the only decades-old magazine story about science ever carried onto the set of a late-night TV talk show. Now, as the author of that story, after decades of scientific advances, let me say this: while the hypotheses described in that original story seemed right at the time, climate scientists now know that they were seriously incomplete. Our climate is warming -- not cooling, as the original story suggested.

Nevertheless, certain websites and individuals that dispute, disparage and deny the science that shows that humans are causing the Earth to warm continue to quote my article. Their message: how can we believe climatologists who tell us that the Earth's atmosphere is warming when their colleagues asserted that it's actually cooling?

Well, yes, we should trust them, despite the views of detractors such as comedian Dennis Miller, who brought my story to The Tonight Show in 2006. Several atmospheric scientists did indeed believe in global cooling, as I reported in the April 28, 1975 issue of Newsweek.

But that was then.

In the 39 years since, biotechnology has flowered from a promising academic topic to a major global industry, the first test-tube baby has been born and become a mother herself, cosmologists have learned that the universe is expanding at an accelerating rate rather than slowing down, and particle physicists have detected the Higgs boson, an entity once regarded as only a theoretical concept. Seven presidents have served most of 11 terms. And Newsweek has become a shadow of its former self.

And on the climate front? The vast majority of climatologists now assure us that Earth's atmosphere is not cooling. Rather it's warming up. And the main responsibility for the phenomenon lies with human activity.

"There's no serious dispute any more about whether the globe is warming, whether humans are responsible, and whether we will see large and dangerous changes in the future – in the words of the National Academy of Sciences – which we didn't know in the 1970s," said Michael Mann, a climatologist at Pennsylvania State University in University Park. He added that nearly every U.S. scientific society has assessed the evidence and come to the same conclusion.



Sooooo, your own freakin poster child has repudiated you and all your disreputable ilk.

Now will you kindly stfu?

(Of course, you won't, since you are hopelessly in love with your own little fantasy and with the attention it gets you. What utterly pathetic specimens you folks are.)
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Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Thu 12 Nov 2015, 22:55:47

Also, that Arch Druid report post is a fucking hoax or just really stupid.

Joe, yes, I've seen it. Funny how it doesn't cite any of the books I have on my bookshelf, which range from mass market science writing (for example, the Ice Ages volume in the Time-Life Planet Earth series) to works by respected natural scientists (for example, E.C. Pielou's After the Ice, a natural history of postglacial North America, which discusses the Neoglaciation in some detail).

The article is right that there was no scientific consensus in favor of glaciation, but that wasn't my point -- my point was that the scientific opinions presented to the general public (in, among others, the books just cited) treated a new ice age as a done deal -- and it's that gap between the tentative internal language of scientific discussion and the overly dogmatic language too often used in presenting science to the public that I was trying to talk about.

Welllllll it turns out that you can read excerpts of "After The Ice Age" on Google books, and you can search the text for the Epilogue.
What of the future? ...

At the time of writing (New Year's 1990), the greenhouse effect appears to be the paramount disruption.Predictions vary as to the magnitude of the climatic change we should expect from this cause; some climatologists forsee an increase in annual mean temperatures throughout the world of as much as five degrees Celsius in 50 years.'

Mind you this is one of the books they claimed said we were plunging into an Ice Age.
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Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby augjohnson » Thu 12 Nov 2015, 23:02:50

Right. Give me a break. Just another denier trying to sell nonsense the has been repeatedly debunked. While pretending to be sympathetic to the other side.


I don't think that others who I'm constantly ragging on to make changes to reduce their Carbon emissions and so on would call me a "Denier"

Yes, I was there:

http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/1979JOSA...69.1408F

SAO/NASA ADS Physics Abstract Service

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Title:
Microcomputer-controlled microwave-optical spectrometer (A)
Authors:
Farley, John W.; Johnson, August H.; Wing, William H.
Publication:
J. Opt. Soc. Am., vol. 69, page 1408
Publication Date:
00/1979
Origin:
OSA
Keywords:
MICROWAVES, SPECTROMETERS
Bibliographic Code:
1979JOSA...69.1408F


and

Oh so you were an undergraduate and the scientists in a different department were all buzzing about the looming Ice Age and you just couldn't help but hear about it from a different floor because they spend all their time talking to undergrads?


God, you sure act like you think scientists think they are Gods and don't talk to anybody lower than themselves. They are people and people like to talk. Actually, the people at the U of A didn't think the cooling was happening, buy they knew that other elsewhere did. Cooling was by no means a consensus then, unlike with warming today.

By the way, Willis Lamb was quite enjoyable to talk to on many subjects other than just physics, after I went to another department at the U of A, I'd often stop by his office in the Optical Sciences dept. just to see what was happening and was always well received.

These responses just prove what JMG was saying
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Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Thu 12 Nov 2015, 23:14:37

KaiserJeep wrote:I was not reading scientific journals in 8th grade, nor were you, I'm sure. I was reading National Geographic, Scientific American, Popular Science, Astronomy, and Popular Electronics - and quite a few comic books, for that matter. Point being, the adult authors of those popular news articles were reading published papers, and were interviewing supposed "expert scientists". That does not change the facts - the topic of a man-induced ice age was all over all the media - even Arthur Godfrey, a popular radio host, was interviewing professors and weather experts on the air. Walter Cronkite, the "most trusted man in America" was doing online TV specials.
.

You sir are utterly full of shit.
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Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Thu 12 Nov 2015, 23:19:25

augjohnson wrote:God, you sure act like you think scientists think they are Gods and don't talk to anybody lower than themselves. They are people and people like to talk. Actually, the people at the U of A didn't think the cooling was happening, buy they knew that other elsewhere did. Cooling was by no means a consensus then, unlike with warming today.

By the way, Willis Lamb was quite enjoyable to talk to on many subjects other than just physics, after I went to another department at the U of A, I'd often stop by his office in the Optical Sciences dept. just to see what was happening and was always well received.

These responses just prove what JMG was saying
Oh so now you're changing your story, and now it's that 45 years ago you heard a rumor that someone said something, and that's your proof.

Yes I know how science works, I'm first author on several papers.
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Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby augjohnson » Thu 12 Nov 2015, 23:22:06

It's this kind of crap that keeps people from believing what scientists are saying about AGW. No wonder more and more people (in the U.S.A. where stupidity is growing) don't believe AGW is happening but instead pay attention to those like Rush Limbaugh and Fox news. The arrogance is astounding!

I almost left once a while ago, after this shit I'm gone. The assholes own this board.

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Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 01:22:57

Here's Cronkite talking about a new Ice Age back in 1972, but notice that it is filler to kill 10 seconds of air time at the end of the show. Also he quotes an expert who said it would take 10,000 years for the Ice Age to peak.

Notice that when it runs on Brietbart that it mentions the "10,000 years" in the quote but it is edited out of the embedded video.

http://www.breitbart.com/video/2015/03/ ... w-ice-age/

And here's the CBS Evening News talking about greenhouse gasses and global warming in 1980 and the loss of Miami by 2050.

https://youtu.be/MU9s0XyEctI
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Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby PrestonSturges » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 01:38:03

1958 The Bell Telephone Science Hour warns about greenhouse gasses, global warming, and sea level rise.

https://youtu.be/m-AXBbuDxRY
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Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 05:51:29

What I don't fathom is why the lot of you even care about my political beliefs on things like the theory of AGW.

This topic is not Science (there, I capitalized again, for the Science-worshipers). The discussion has moved past whether or not AGW is happening. At this time I admit there is a solid majority of "Scientists" who think it is. We never could separate the discussion of whether AGW was happening or not to what we need to do about it, and we still can't.

As I understand it, a bunch of AGW nuts on the extreme fringe of human society want us to voluntarily cease burning oil for agriculture, manufacturing, and transport. Then they want us to cease burning coal for electrical energy and manufacturing. They want us to do both of these things before we have adequate substitutes for either coal or oil. They want this to happen ASAP, as a matter of fact. A sizable number of these nuts admit that even if the world in general were to cease burning these two fossil fuels, the legacy of the carbon emitted over the last 200 years would continue to warm the globe for 1000+ years.

Finally, a solid majority of these extreme fringe AGW crackpots are also extremely selfish hypocrites who refuse to give up their liquid-fuelled cars, even though 99+% of the routine transportation fuels burned by private vehicles could be replaced by battery electric vehicles (BEVs) which consume NO LIQUID FUELS WHATSOEVER. The majority of these hypocrites continue to live in massive, energy-intensive human hives called "cities", which in actual fact are always surrounded by fossil-fuelled power plants which keep the lights on, meanwhile belching carbon into the atmosphere. This is even happening in the USA, the one wealthy country in the world where the majority of citizens could actually afford to walk away from oil and coal burning - should they so choose.

Well, they DON'T so choose. The majority of you complaining about AGW and CC think that everybody else should abandon the two most important energy sources in the world, but can't be bothered to do so yourself. Does that about describe the current situation, you murderous AGW fanboys?

Now if any of you genuine AGW believers have voluntarily abandoned the use of liquid fuelled vehicles in their entirety, as well as voluntarily dropped off of our power grid, congratulations for demonstrating the sincerity of your beliefs about AGW. I respect those of you who have not only talked the talk, but walked the walk.

The rest of you murderous, even genocidal AGW fanboy/bastards can simply STFU on this topic. If you genuinely believe in AGW and CC and continue to consume oil and coal as if there is no tomorrow, you are beneath contempt.

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Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
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Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 08:42:55

KaiserJeep wrote:This topic is not Science (there, I capitalized again, for the Science-worshipers). The discussion has moved past whether or not AGW is happening. At this time I admit there is a solid majority of "Scientists" who think it is. We never could separate the discussion of whether AGW was happening or not to what we need to do about it, and we still can't.


It mostly certainly is science. This is what science looks like. Models and theorems and scattered data points, surveys of this and that. When the math starts to fit, and starts to be reasonably repeatable, a consensus begins to form around a particular set of theorems and data, and is the accepted "model of the universe" as it were, for that topic. Until someone comes along with a better set of data and a better set of theorems, argues it, demonstrates it, repeats it over, and over, and over, and over, and over; at which point the previous consensus starts to break up, and a new one begins to form.

THAT is science.

The stuff we did in chemistry and physics classes, that was technician lab work, not science. That was the very basics of building data; not the presentations, forums, leading to eventual peer reviewed article publication in an ancient journal on the topic of interest. And that's not the end, that's just the beginning of the real show.

As to what to do? Please. There is no "do". Anyone with enough understanding of political science, history, and the climate science involved, knows there is no possible permutation of "do" that can both be accepted by the world, and result in 2C or less change. 2C was a politically chosen number, as it should be, but it was chosen with poor regard to the science. 2C is not an achievable limit. 4C would probably be achievable briefly, but engages so many feedbacks at that point, the system would most likely run all the way to its warm state, even without further emissions by humans. Thus, everyone with enough understanding of each of the involved fields, understands there is no stopping this train; we can probably slow it a little bit so our kids can enjoy the luxuries of civilization; but past that, our interglacial-moderated cold-phase niche... is over.

Money really should be focused towards compensating and adapting for as long as possible.

Which is what I feel China is really up to; outside their press releases. They intend to be the last formidable country standing as the pile sinks into the abyss. If it were otherwise, they would not build what they most certain are building.

As to whether we're hypocrites? I'd only be a hypocrite if I were calling for people to stop using fossil fuels. And I'm not. Its a pointless request. I might as well demand of the sea, that it should stop moving. I do suggest people try to make their life styles as tolerant of technical and market disruptions as possible. I bike for a lot of my shopping and such around town, not to save the environment, but because it decreases my dependence on always-available fuel. I still have my small pickup and minivan, I use them when needed without any feeling of guilt.
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Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby augjohnson » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 08:48:26

One last comment and I'm gone. If there are any actual administrators on this site, please delete my account.

It's sad when I have more respect for a "denier" such as Cog than I do for some of the most ardent "believers" of AGW. Cog has done far more to reduce his fossil-fuel usage and CO2 emissions than almost all "believers". The hypocrisy of most "believers" just destroys their credibility!

It doesn't take a very complicated google search of "coming ice age 1970" to find many, many articles and publications in both popular press and scientific journals of such things (complete with page scans), yet there's the massive denial that such things exist, just as JMG said in his post. These are the articles and publications that the deniers keep bringing up as evidence that AGW is phony. These vociferous denials of things that exist just fuels the deniers fury.

I haven't been on a plane in years, won't be on one ever again if I can avoid it. I probably don't drive 10% of the miles of most of the "believers" on this board and have a minuscule energy consumption compared to you. I'm always working to further reduce consumption and emissions... If you ARE working hard to reduce, then you're not a hypocrite, but most aren't, they just want someone else to make the change, not themselves.

Good riddance to you "believer" hypocrites!
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Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 09:06:50

aug, you have no idea what any of our footprints are.

Have a nice life.

KJ wrote: "As I understand it..."

Pretty much everything you write shows us that you understand very, very little.

You are just embarrassing yourself with every post.

But just in case anyone forgot:

"no scientific body of national or international scientists rejects the findings of human-induced effects on climate change"

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientifi ... ate_change
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Re: Cold Sun Rising

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Fri 13 Nov 2015, 09:44:31

Is that like, "I leave you gentleman now and you will write it. You will interpret it. That's your right. But as I leave you I want you to know — just think how much you're going to be missing. You won't have Nixon to kick around any more, because, gentlemen, this is my last press conference."

Good Riddance. But just like Nixon you'll be back in another sock puppet, trying your same nonsense again.

In your last post you showed your true colors. You used the vocabulary of the denier. Even as you attempted to feign sympathies with the other side.
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