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Saudi Aramco IPO

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 16:57:17

yeah P, they are also royal hypocrites. I read a story of how the loved being entertained by prostitutes when in NYC. So, they just like give the "right" impressions to their people that they are good Muslims. But in reality they are as greedy and immoral as anybody.
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 16:59:34

No one defends SA except folks who depend on the Kingdom for a living.
/sarc
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 19:12:51

Rockdoc here are some Peer Reviewed Scholarly sources for ya!


which have nothing whatsoever to do with this thread. So why post them?
Cognitive dissonance perhaps?

yeah P, they are also royal hypocrites. I read a story of how the loved being entertained by prostitutes when in NYC. So, they just like give the "right" impressions to their people that they are good Muslims. But in reality they are as greedy and immoral as anybody.


well first off you "read a story" which is hardly something that would be accepted in a court of law (even the worst one) as proof. Secondly, you stated
But in reality they are as greedy and immoral as anybody.

So, in essence, they are no different than anybody else. Which has been my observation over the number of years I spent in the Middle East. They are people just like anywhere else. They have their religion, they have their beliefs and just like in North America or Europe or anywhere else there is a wide range of belief and adherence to practice. There are Saudis who, though Muslim, do not practice the faith with any more devotion than a gangster in Chicago who attends mass and takes confession on a regular basis. There are some who are very religious but it does not get in the way of business any more than religion gets in the way of a number of very successful CEOs in the US (eg. Indra Nooyi who is a devout Hindu and also CEO of Pepsico; Daniel Amos who is a devout Methodist and CEO of Aflac; Bill Marriott, patriarch of the Marriott hotel family and former CEO and a high ranking member in the Church of Latter Day Saints).

Trying to portray them as some evil race of terrorist devils as Pstarr seems to think they are and then somehow link that to a belief that they are lying about oil and gas is at best naive but more likely ignorant.
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 19:25:13

Your points are valid Rockdoc. However, the lying part to me is not about their character or such, it is simply about the fact that they have been so dependent of the success of their Oil and Gas Enterprise. When the well being and welfare of you and all those around you depend literally on the continued success of an endeavor, you may just lie to protect its continued ascendancy. That is not too far fetched.
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 19:29:52

Oh and when you are as rich as KSA is, you can bribe almost any entity to go along with your lies.
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 19:40:12

Cheney lied about weapons of mass destruction . . . to get at all of Iraq's oil. We know that (except those in the oil business) Try this for the truth: Newsweek, 5/19/15: DICK CHENEY’S BIGGEST LIE It only took ten year for all that truth to come out. :x
The real question should be: “Given what we knew then...” Bush hawks knew there was no good intelligence establishing that Saddam Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction (WMDs). And in what could easily be interpreted as near-treason, they never told the president about the weakness of the intelligence, several former high-ranking officials from the administration have told me.


The Saudi's lie about their oil also. Give the media ten years and that truth will come out also. Unfortunately we won't have tens years to appreciate it. :cry:
/sarc
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 20:26:40

Oh and when you are as rich as KSA is, you can bribe almost any entity to go along with your lies


OK for the fifth time and counting their reserves have been audited by Gaffney Cline & Associates and DeGolyer and MacNaughton, two of the largest and most respected reserve auditing firms in the world. When they sign a reserve report they are legally responsible and can be charged by SEC, TSX or whoever the regulatory body is. As well once it got out in the market that they had "lied" or jigged a report they would never get hired again by a publicly traded company (no audit committee would touch them for fear of negative repercusions in the market). Exactly who are they going to bribe...the entire NYSE committee in charge of IPO's? The audit firms who would be giving up millions of dollars a year in business if they were caught (which they would be)? Both are as far-fetched as one can imagine.

Cheney lied about weapons of mass destruction . . . to get at all of Iraq's oil. We know tha


apparently, you don't know anything. Did the US suddenly get all of Iraq's oil? No it did not. In fact no US company won a bid to develop Iraq oil, a complete shutout. There was zero benefit to US oil and gas companies other than service companies who are paid for work (i.e they do not get compensated with the right to lift oil).The fact of the matter is US imports of oil actually decreased after the Iraq war and are only just recently getting back to the state they were previously.

The Saudi's lie about their oil also. Give the media ten years and that truth will come out also


Horseshit. Once the IPO is executed all of the information including reserve reports and financial reports become public documents, available to anyone.
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 20:43:50

Well, then I must burst the bubble of your well crafted storyline. Look at Exxon, lied for decades about what it knew about Climate change. This is all too typical of what Governments and Corporations do. They lie. How much more when the very fabric and stability of Civilization is at stake. And to boot when no Plan B exists. The stakes could not be higher. And so Countries and Corporations alike will be lying to keep this Boat afloat a while longer. You are truly underestimating the nature of what is happening.
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 20:58:00

Look at Exxon, lied for decades about what it knew about Climate change.


well first off according to Exxon they did research that was all published (in the record for anyone to make up their own mind) and their view then and now is that there is a lot of uncertainty. That is the same view by a number of very well known climate scientists including Judith Curry. Regardless of that, there was no regulations or laws surrounding anything whatsoever to do with climate change and disclosure whereas there are regulations and laws around reserve reporting that are well known and well understood. The two aren't even close and certainly not analogous whatsoever. You might as well compare ice skates to bicycles.

This is all too typical of what Governments and Corporations do. They lie


and statements like that are all too typical of the doomer conspiracy theory types. Everyone is dirty, everyone is trying to put something over on someone else, the government is trying to hurt you, corporations are trying to steal your money. Do you realize how pathetic that attitude is and how you appear to folks on this site who have a bit of sanity and common sense?
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 20:59:51

onlooker wrote:Well, then I must burst the bubble of your well crafted storyline. Look at Exxon, lied for decades about what it knew about Climate change.


The science of climate change is easy to understand and has been around far longer than An Inconvenient Truth. It's not necessary for Exxon to lie as society doesn't want to accept it (hence it being an "inconvenient" truth). That's why we have President Trump. Therefore the real-world damage of Exxon's disinfo campaign is, well, not that big of a deal.

Image

Probably the one most valuable takeaway I had from reading The Oil Drum was the psychology articles. Wasn't Nate Hagens the author of those? They went into detail on tragedy of the commons, etc... I think those who flog the conspiracy theory narrative are really trying to avoid personal accountability. That doesn't mean big oil and big ag and what not aren't doing their best to brainwash us or that they don't deserve our disgust. It's despicable to be sure. But in the end it's just NOT necessary because we're not smarter than yeast.
“If and when the oil price skewers for 6 months or more substantially above the MAP, then I will concede the Etp is inherently flawed"
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 21:09:24

First off, I utilized Exxon because of the gravity of climate change and how that connects with the gravity of the PO situation. But I forget that you are not up on the latest practically unanimous scientific certainty of AGW. Look I am not a numbers guy like Short nor am I in the Oil and Gas business like you Rockdoc. I will not persue this further out of respect for your knowledge. I am just saying that we all should feel jaded and cynical with year after year of lies and misinformation coming from "official" sources. Perhaps I and others are totally wrong and we have years to decades of BAU and the reporting and stats from official sources are legit. But you and others surely should reconsider in being so ready to believe what you are being told.
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 21:14:58

onlooker wrote:you and others surely should reconsider in being so ready to believe what you are being told.


Onlooker, how often do you bring a link here that's from a source other than Zerohedge? You're the last to school us on vetting information sources. You build your own reality brick-by-brick by cherry-picking your sources. So you really don't practice what you preach.
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 23:03:04

70 - "...aren't doing their best to brainwash us...". I'm always curious when I hear such statements. Can you give a few SPECIFIC examples of such brainwashing devices? And while you're at it can you explain why you and a very small minority have not been brainwashed? IOW compared to the vast majority consumers who have shown little to no effort to reduce their production of GHG.

Those brainwashing techniques must be extremely effective given how very few consumers are giving up their burning of fossil fuels.
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby EdwinSm » Sun 15 Oct 2017, 06:07:30

The BBC reports on a possible problem with listing in New York:

BBC wrote:New York is another possible listing destination, but the FT said some members of the Saudi royal family are worried about legal risks, citing US terrorism legislation that would allow citizens to sue Saudi Arabia.
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-41627231
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby Cog » Sun 15 Oct 2017, 08:30:40

In the same article you cited Ed, Aramco stated that they are on track for a 2018 IPO. There is a lot of wishful thinking in the doomer world about Saudi Arabia crashing and burning. Not happening. There is a boatload of money to be made by the banks and the Royals on this deal and green is the only consideration here.
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 15 Oct 2017, 10:36:53

The BBC reports on a possible problem with listing in New York:


I chuckled when I saw this comment given the Saudis can already be sued given they are invested heavily in the US both in treasuries, banks etc. In fact they have already been sued and the Saudis have argued that charges should be dismissed since 1. there is no proof of direct connection and 2. soverign immunity. Why would they worry about something happening in the future that has already happened? And basically, they can be sued anywhere in the world, the issue with having any business in parts of the US (New York state as an example) is the law is set up in such a manner to favor class action suits whether they have merit or not.
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 15 Oct 2017, 11:09:10

Doc - I've told the story before: folks think even if you win a judgement against a foreign govt you'll never collect. Years ago my stepdaughter represented a firm that was sued by a Big Oil because it decided to take some of its oil fields away without cause. The judgement won was $850 million. And the govt paid. Can't give more details since she made me promise. The deal also included a nondisclosure agreement signed by all.

So where did the leverage come from? She explained it was from the IMF (International Monetary Fund) and World Bank:

"Known collectively as the Bretton Woods Institutions after the remote village in New Hampshire, U.S.A., where they were founded by the delegates of 44 nations in July 1944, the Bank and the IMF are twin intergovernmental pillars supporting the structure of the world's economic and financial order."

Apparently they can cripple a country's foreign trade operations if you piss them off. But could they hold the same lever over the KSA as a much smaller country? I have no idea. OTOH given how much international trade the KSA is involved in they might have greater influence.
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 15 Oct 2017, 12:18:07

Indeed. It is well known that Mobil Oil eventually received compensation from Iran for nationalizing their oil reserves. It was a very big payment, just can't remember the number. Note also that the Argentine national oil company YPF ended up compensating Repsol for the loss they incurred when the gov't nationalized their holdings about 6 or so years ago. All Respol had to do was file a claim and the Argentines ponied up (eventually after a lot of negotiation) simply because they didn't want the messiness and expense of a trial (which they would lose anyway).
As a consequence of that issue what you find now in profit sharing or royalty/tax agreements with foreign governments on their soil is they attempt to include a statement regarding sovereign immunity. The tact by most international companies now when they sign an agreement with a foreign government is to get that government to waive its' right to sovereign immunity as it applies to that contract which avoids the long litigation that would otherwise ensue if they did something to invalidate your contract. Note also that almost all of these agreements designate the court of arbitration and court of litigation. Back when I was still in the game we refused to sign anything that litigated in the US and usually tried for London.
I think in reality that Saudi Arabia could not argue for sovereign immunity for activities outside of their country but could for decisions and activities that took place inside of SA. But as my wife keeps reminding me (for decades now) I'm not a lawyer (she is/was) :P
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 15 Oct 2017, 13:48:44

Looker - "Do you mean Rockdoc. or Rockman? They are two different people." There's you go again: embarrassing the terminally confused. They have their unfounded prejudices etched in stone. Or "rock" if you prefer. Shame on you!!! LOL.
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 15 Oct 2017, 13:50:55

ROCKMAN wrote:Looker - "Do you mean Rockdoc. or Rockman? They are two different people." There's you go again: embarrassing the terminally confused. They have their unfounded prejudices etched in stone. Or "rock" if you prefer. Shame on you!!! LOL.

I personally prefer the Rockman, he is generally less grouchy than Rockdoc and has that novel 3rd person narraration going :lol:
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