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Saudi Aramco IPO

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 11:32:31

Good observation Coffee. Yes, they are fighting literally for their lives. And they are truly unpopular in KSA. Add to it some personal dysfunctions and power hunger and greed and we are watching infighting worthy of any of the Pharaoah or Cesaer dynasties. This also could be affecting the IPO, as lack of consensus within the royal ranks and so conflicting reports about this IPO and other events. Hard for anybody to know as they tend to be so secret. Here is link to dysfunctions. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saud ... SKBN1A41IS
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 12:06:36

The obvious question is whether it is the transparency that the New York and London exchanges would require is the problem? Maybe that transparency hinders the functioning of power? Maybe it reveals how much oil is really there? I'm inclined to think the reserve situation is not their immediate worry.
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 12:41:20

evilgenius wrote:The obvious question is whether it is the transparency that the New York and London exchanges would require is the problem? Maybe that transparency hinders the functioning of power? Maybe it reveals how much oil is really there? I'm inclined to think the reserve situation is not their immediate worry.

I wondered about the transparency issue too when I first saw this.

OTOH, it's just a rumor at this stage.

I never invest in IPO's, but they're often an interesting show to watch.
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby GASMON » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 12:42:54

evilgenius wrote:The obvious question is whether it is the transparency that the New York and London exchanges would require is the problem? Maybe that transparency hinders the functioning of power? Maybe it reveals how much oil is really there? I'm inclined to think the reserve situation is not their immediate worry.


Perhaps their oil is running out quicker than expected. Quick sale to offload the lot, all the Royals and their $$$Trillions encamp to a safe haven (London, Switzerland USA perhaps) and the whole country goes to hell. As usual "world" leaders who care not one jot about the average Joe (or Mohammed).

The whole lot stinks.

And what was the old git doing in Russia last week buying missiles from Vlad, - I thought the USA / UK supplied arms to the Saudi's.

Ah well - it is the will of Allah.

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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 13:17:05

The obvious question is whether it is the transparency that the New York and London exchanges would require is the problem? Maybe that transparency hinders the functioning of power? Maybe it reveals how much oil is really there? I'm inclined to think the reserve situation is not their immediate worry.


as explained in several articles this year the transparency issue they are referring to is given that Aramco is a sovereign owned corporation there are certain things (outside of reserves and finances) that under normal circumstances (if they were a non sovereign public company) would have to be reported that could create security issues for Saudi Arabia (or any other soverign owned company trying to execute an IPO). This is why in the UK they are planning to change some of the rules as they apply to sovereign-owned entities (not reserves requirements). A number of years ago EcoPetrol in Colombia ran up against this hurdle when they looked at listing on the NYSE. They instead listed on the Colombian exchange and then had ADR (American depository shares) trade on the TSX and NYSE. They subsequently delisted from TSX due to the low volume of trading but remain on the NYSE. They release their reserve, production, and financial information annually but still resist a NYSE listing due to certain disclosures necessary that any sovereign government would feel uneasy about. Remember that Aramco already had two of the largest reserve auditing firms in the world review and create independent reserve reports that are a requirement of listing on the LSE, AIM, NYSE or TSX. They wouldn't have gone to that trouble (and risk) if they weren't fully committed to the type of reserve and financial disclosure they would be committing to with an IPO on one of the international markets.
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 13:34:18

Saudi Arabian oil reserves are overstated by 40% - Wikileaks

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -wikileaks
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 13:43:07

Cliffhanger1983 wrote:Saudi Arabian oil reserves are overstated by 40% - Wikileaks

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -wikileaks

Careful Cliff, you might destroy the soothing mythology of the cornies who think what we are told by the Authorities and official channels is the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth. :razz:
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 14:05:29

Saudi Arabia may be out of oil to export by 2030 – Citibank

http://www.aljazeera.com/blogs/middleea ... 35876.html
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 14:46:16

Saudi Arabian oil reserves are overstated by 40% - Wikileaks


What a load of crap. The article is from 2011 (note for those who are time challenged, that is six years ago) and the person who is leaking the information stated SA would never be able to reach the 12.5 MMB/d spare capacity they had as a goal. Low and behold they met that capacity a year later. He is also talking about 50% recovery which has now been replaced by Aramco with an eventual 70%. And Sadad al-Husseini was ousted from Aramco back in 2004, well before they embarked on the mega-projects that got them to the 12.5 MMB/d spare capacity. He was hardly in a position to know very much about anything that happened during the period of growth.

Saudi Arabia may be out of oil to export by 2030 – Citibank
and that article is from 2012. It is based on projections of internal growth demand for energy but of course because it is so out of date it would not be aware of the initiatives SA is undergoing to increase it's natural gas production and conversion to power. In essence, their numbers are 5 years out of date.

perhaps next time when you want to instill fear amongst the hordes you might want to check the date on your sources. :roll:
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby GASMON » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 14:53:28

So, Rock, how much oil have they ? - Educated guess.

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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 14:58:51

So Rockdoc, you can vouch for those numbers you're giving? Despite KSA giving indications of financial problems and moving away from oil. Despite the fact that as far back as 2005, Mathew Simmons noted serious problems in KSA with his book 'Twilight in the Desert ' and how for many years they seemed to always "magically" have the same almost identical amount of Reserves. I guess we all want to believe what we want to believe
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 15:38:05

Despite KSA giving indications of financial problems and moving away from oil.


your definition of "financial problems" must be different than most people. Take a look at their budget for 2017 versus actuals, look at their 5-year projection. They will have a balanced budget by 2020 based on current oil prices without the IPO. Their budget deficit is way down from last year so looks like they are on the right path and have much less to worry about than you think.

Mathew Simmons noted serious problems in KSA with his book 'Twilight in the Desert ' and how for many years they seemed to always "magically" have the same almost identical amount of Reserves


years ago I pointed out what a shoddy job Simmons did, basically, a financial advisor reading engineering literature, but not only that it was apparent he only read the abstracts and actually didn't understand what he was reading. Many of the papers he claimed were showing a problem actually were talking about the solution they had already arrived at and proven. As to the reserve numbers I've explained the rationale for that a number of times. IT happened right when OPEC came into force and the decision was likely made to recognize reserves in a standard fashion. The fact they haven't changed has to do with reserve replacement. Like Shorty, you need to understand the definitions. Saudi Arabia reports proven reserves and as they produce they replace proven producing with probable non producing. There was a lot of that that went on in 2005 - 2010 during the mega projects. The view (not just mine but a number of oil and gas critics) is that SA simply moves enough reserves over each year so as to keep their proven reserves at a reasonable number. And that interpretation is bolstered by the two reserve audits which were conducted this past year for the purposes of the IPO. As I have said these are very large firms that audited the reserves and they have a huge amount of credibility in the industry. They are bound by law with regards to what they sign off on and it isn't worth their while to somehow collude to inflate reserves given they get virtually nothing by doing so and put their multi-million dollar a year businesses at risk. Those reports will be public when the IPO is completed but in the meanwhile, the firms have said that their analysis is largely in agreement with the reserves the Saudis have stated.

Not sure why you and the rest of the chicken little crowd are so adverse to believing what is stated by Saudi Arabia. I've been there and have met with the Aramco execs and one of the crown princes in London years ago when they had the first natural gas bid round. They are highly professional and educated. Their technology and implementation of same is far ahead of pretty much anyone else in the oil and gas business.
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 15:58:55

"Not sure why you and the rest of the chicken little crowd are so adverse to believing what is stated by Saudi Arabia. "

They sent over 12 of their crappiest with box cutters to kill 2,000 of our best. Saudi Arabia has no reason to reveal the truth and every reason to lie. It's a nation of slaves ruled over by a single family of hateful feudal liars.
/sarc
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 16:09:18

Rockman is as dumb as they come and never sites any sources. he is nothing more than a paid troll and based on his 'no worries' arguments i can safely say they are paying for shit these days. sad...
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 16:11:33

Cliffhanger1983 wrote:Rockman is as dumb as they come and never sites any sources. he is nothing more than a paid troll and based on his 'no worries' arguments i can safely say they are paying for shit these days. sad...

Do you mean Rockdoc. or Rockman? They are two different people.
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 16:19:40

Rockdoc sorry.
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 16:24:11

Saudi Arabia’s Energy Minister Warns of World Oil Shortages Ahead

https://www.wsj.com/articles/saudi-mini ... 1476870790

Saudi Aramco CEO believes oil shortage coming despite U.S. shale boom

http://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/2017 ... -boom.html

IEA Chief warns of world oil shortages by 2020 as discoveries fall to record lows

https://www.wsj.com/articles/iea-says-g ... 1493244000


Why are the Saudi's and IEA warning now about upcoming oil shortages if they have all the oil they claim?
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 16:33:06

They sent over 12 of their crappiest with box cutters to kill 2,000 of our best. Saudi Arabia has no reason to reveal the truth and every reason to lie. It's a nation of slaves ruled over by a single family of hateful feudal liars.


Do you actually know any Saudis? Every met one? Your statement reeks of racist hate. :x

Pretty much everyone in the world has "no reason to reveal the truth and every reason to lie", but they don't. Yet you seem to think the Saudis are somehow substandard or perhaps evil. As I said once before it is time you actually traveled somewhere out of the northern California hillbilly country.

About reserves the reason they can't lie is it is an IPO...independent reserve reports are required by law, they must provide 3 years of externally audited financials as well. Basically, if they lie the IPO is tossed out and potential jail terms in the jurisdictions where the IPO was attempted. This is absolutely no different than in the USA (in fact if they do the IPO on the NYSE they are bound by the exact same laws regarding truthful disclosure as any other company listed there).
As to the Saudi government planning 911....take that over to one of the conspiracy theory threads, I'm sure it will be appreciated. :roll:

Rockman is as dumb as they come and never sites any sources. he is nothing more than a paid troll and based on his 'no worries' arguments i can safely say they are paying for shit these days. sad...


first of all sources are sited all the time, second of all I wish someone would pay me. I've been retired for years and now have very little invested in oil and gas related stocks (some pipelines and that is it). Given you haven't posted a coherent statement as yet I'm not sure how you feel justified in pointing the finger at anyone. That might be hard to do when you have to keep wiping the drool from your mouth as you type. :roll:
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby Cliffhanger1983 » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 16:46:22

Rockdoc here are some Peer Reviewed Scholarly sources for ya!


NASA Study: Industrial Civilization is headed for Irreversible Collapse (Motesharrei, 2012)
http://jayhanson.us/_Biology/OvershootCollapse.pdf

UK Royal Society Study: Now, for the First Time, a Global Collapse Appears Likely (Ehrlich, 2013)
http://rspb.royalsocietypublishing.org/ ... 4/20122845

Study: Limits to Growth was Right. Research shows we're nearing Global Collapse (Turner, 2014)
http://sustainable.unimelb.edu.au/sites ... r_2014.pdf

Study: Financial System Supply-Chain Cross-Contagion: in Global Systemic Collapse (Korowicz, 2012)
http://www.feasta.org/2012/06/17/trade- ... -collapse/


The End of the Human Race will be that it will Eventually Die of Civilization –Ralph W Emerson :twisted:
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Re: Saudi Aramco Reportedly Shelves IPO In “Face-Saving” Mov

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 14 Oct 2017, 16:49:26

Muree bin Ali bin Issa al-Asiri, who was found in possession of talismans, was executed in the southern Najran province in June 2012. A Saudi woman, Amina bin Salem Nasser,[27] was executed for being convicted of practising sorcery and witchcraft in December 2011 in the northern province of Jawf, and a Sudanese man (Abdul Hamid Bin Hussain Bin Moustafa al-Fakki) was executed in a car park in Medina for the same reason in September 20, 2011.[28][29][30]
Saudi law theoretically allows the death penalty for many crimes:
Treason
Espionage[9]
Murder[7]
Rape[7]
Terrorism
Drug smuggling
Apostasy (Apostates are sentenced to beheading but are usually given three days to repent and return to Islam.)[7]
Armed robbery[7]
Atheism[10]
Blasphemy[7]
Burglary if aggravated circumstances, including recidivism[9]
Adultery (Unmarried adulterers can be sentenced to 100 lashes, married ones can be sentenced to stoning.)[11]
Sexual misconduct
Sodomy, homosexuality, or lesbianism (If a man or woman is sodomized by their own consent, then they will also be sentenced to death along with the sodomizer.)
Sorcery or witchcraft[5][12][13][14]
Theft (fourth conviction)
Waging war on God[15][16]
Murder[edit]
/sarc
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