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Saudi America Will Overtake Saudi Arabia As Top producer

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Saudi America Will Overtake Saudi Arabia As Top producer

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 01 Oct 2017, 04:04:06

ROCKMAN wrote:"By 2025 or so, with many mainstream makers in the fray, hopefully EV sales will be in the many million range." Millions...not tens of millions then? Let's make a. Completely absurd prediction: half the new vehicles sold in 2025 will be EV's (which will be powered by electricity produced by burning fossil fuels more then any other source) and the rest ICE's. So in 8 years there will be about 50 million new ICE's rolling down the road emitting GHG into the atmosphere. And 50 million EV's the majority of which will be powered by ff sourced electricity based on the current projrction of renewable energy growth. So where exactly is the good news? Yes, better then 100 million new ICE's. But still not good news by any measure for the sake of the climate.

And that's based upon an impossible projection.
To take your impossible example one step further each of those 50 million EVs will consume some 4000 to 5000 KWHs of electricity which is equal to a modest houses consumption. Do we have capacity in the grid for 50 million more houses or plans to build it? And that is just the first 50 million cars with another 220 million to go.
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Re: Saudi America Will Overtake Saudi Arabia As Top producer

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 01 Oct 2017, 15:48:52

vt - And now that you mention it let's go to another extreme. Such as the 1.2 billion vehicles on the road today are eventually replaced by EV's. But wait: one more not very likely extreme assumption: not only do many in the future generations NOT own a private vehicle but half of the current owners give up "happy motoring". So even with those rediculous assumptions we eventually end up with 600 million EV's sucking on that big electricity tit some time in the future. Or about 12X as much as in your model.

But now that I think of it, no problem: we do have plenty of coal left to burn. LOL.
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Is U.S. Energy Independence In Sight?

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 15 Nov 2017, 19:02:56


The International Energy Agency made headlines Monday when it declared in its World Energy Outlook 2017 that the U.S. could be a net exporter of oil within a decade. The IEA also projected that the U.S. is set to become the world’s dominant oil and gas production leader for decades. Is that a realistic assessment? Is the U.S. on the cusp of achieving energy independence for the first time in nearly 70 years? A dozen years ago, the notion that the U.S. could achieve energy independence would have drawn scoffs from most energy analysts (including myself). After all, U.S. oil production had been in decline since reaching a peak of 9.6 million barrels per day (BPD) in 1970. By 2005, U.S. oil production had fallen to 5.2 million barrels per day. But U.S oil demand continued to grow, so crude oil imports soared


Is U.S. Energy Independence In Sight?
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Re: Is U.S. Energy Independence In Sight?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 19 Nov 2017, 16:35:01

This has to be one of the silliest headlines ever posted around here.
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: Is U.S. Energy Independence In Sight?

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 19 Nov 2017, 16:39:34

IEA (and the rest) usually confuse this issue by intentionally misdirecting and conflating 'net energy exporter' to 'net-oil exporter'. The clowns refer to units of oil-equivalence when they simply mean coal.
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Re: Is U.S. Energy Independence In Sight?

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 19 Nov 2017, 17:53:04

Subjectivist wrote:This has to be one of the silliest headlines ever posted around here.


If the EIA is contemplating it when running The Model, then no, this isn't a silly headline.

On a net energy basis of course, I don't believe the EIA is projecting for energy surplus in all commodities.

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Re: Is U.S. Energy Independence In Sight?

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 19 Nov 2017, 17:54:35

pstarr wrote:IEA (and the rest) usually confuse this issue by intentionally misdirecting and conflating 'net energy exporter' to 'net-oil exporter'. The clowns refer to units of oil-equivalence when they simply mean coal.


Coal, coke and natural gas. Only amateur hour forum denizens think that anyone simply means coal when discussing net energy balance.
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