Oleg Grigoriev: "The main problem - whether China will survive 2015"
13/01/2015
ONE OF THE LEADING RUSSIAN ECONOMISTS TOLD "BUSINESS ONLINE» WHY CHEAP OIL WILL BE ANOTHER 14 YEARS
His new book claiming to be the "Capital" Karl Marx, presented in mid-December in the wording "Business Online» Oleg Grigoryev known economist - one of the founders of the theory of the current economic crisis in the past Head of Economic Department of the Presidential Administration. The text of the conversation, which we publish today, contains a deeply grounded and at the same time the most unexpected conclusions about what would happen to the Russian and world economy in the coming months and years.
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- So what happened this year?
- Let's go in order. First, financial sanctions. Yes, they are quite painful, especially restricting access to Western capital markets. And we must understand that there is a declared sanctions, there is a hidden sanction. On the one hand, there is a direct prohibition on access, but it is for the few - 5 - 6 largest banks. But from the beginning there was the risk of the country, that's a plus 1 - 2 percent to the cost of debt, that is, refinancing became more expensive for everyone.
- Why can not we refinance in China? They have a huge amount of dollars, there is no place to put them.
- From China for quite some time is the outflow of capital, China itself is not enough dollars.
- All its trillions? When their reserves?
- You understand that such reserves. Once or twice and they end. We are here now on the verge of reserves.
- But they have a positive balance of trade? That is, the dollars they have replenished?
- And leaked, leaked, leaked ...
- But it leaked less than replenished.
- In recent months, on the contrary.
- That is, they themselves need currency?
- They themselves need the currency, so they will not lend.
- In general, we have nowhere to be financed?
- In fact, the situation is purely sanctions is not very dangerous, calculations were and are, held them fast enough. Actually sanctions themselves would have cost us 40 - 42 rubles to the dollar at the normal price of oil.
But here we must say at once that behaved abominably our two young ladies at the Central Bank. For me, it was amazing, I spent some time even with excessive zeal to protect them. In March, when they had to be active, they acted very correctly and consistently good, well thought, was a sequence of steps, which gave reasonable results. Course tugged and stabilized ...
- But the situation is not so tough was all the same?
- It is a matter of policy. I then analyzed. Unfortunately or fortunately, the Central Bank put the global challenges in the Kremlin. Then the task was simple: do not let the ruble fall at any cost, pay no attention to the amount of foreign exchange reserves, because then it was believed that sufficient reserves. Therefore, the task was fairly simple. Catapulted money, all other parameters recalculated and everything is fine. What happened when introduced financial sanctions? The same central bank received in August indication "number one": "Guys, so you can not spend more reserves. The tool you clean, but you lower the intensity. " Because these 30 billion significantly reduced the airbag. And immediately the Central Bank lowered the limit to half a billion to 350 million.
Second, apparently, they were told that 42 rubles suit us, arrange a budget and all that. When the ruble slowly begins to fall, the Central Bank does not intervene. Moreover, when the September meeting of the Central Bank is prepared at the rate of the whole market expects that the Central Bank will respond, at least half a percent raise. The central bank decides to do nothing. That is, they were told: Course 40 - 42, but as the course has not yet reached 40 rubles, we did not do. That's when the turn of the suit, and then we will think.
But you see, when a trend develops, builds around the entire financial system that supports it. When a trend yet, or it has not been determined, the Central Bank can manage the situation. And when the system is developed, and the Central Bank said that it was time to react, it turns out that he was alone against all and he does not have the tools. Provisions can not spend at stake are no longer responsive because the market situation is such that you earn per day, 100 percent per annum, so your rate increase by two per cent in general nobody stirs.
CB missed ruble out of control, in some moment of panic again began to squander foreign exchange reserves. Everyone loved it, because it turns out that the Central Bank will cover any feast. There is a problem here it manifested itself.
- Elvira's not a professional in the banking system works, it did not work at the bank. Dura - not a fool, but system-it does not know the inside.
- We have a problem, the entire leadership of the Central Bank - it's bureaucrats and career bureaucrats as they do, thinking they have such, they were told - it is necessary to report. They do not feel the situation has not reached the rate of 40 - 42, so we did not move, who we ask?
- They are more likely to ask if you start to throw dollars at 38.
- That's right, there is just ask. They know how to count in bureaucratic, for the general model, not as market players.
WHY NOT WORKED METHOD Dragi?
- Is it possible to call traders and bankers and threaten: "I love you all to jail, Revoke the license?" Or they share?
- No really, what sort of proportion. All over the use, insides, just everything blindly.
- And they came to that, what came ...
- Yes, all burst out of control. But then it got worse. They went to the only possible strategy. Thinking consultation, they went on a method Draghi ( Mario Draghi - Italian economist, President of the European Central Bank from November 2011 - Ed. ), which he applied in Europe. You say, "Guys, I'm not announce any policy, but I reserve the right to intervene in the market in any volume." Do Draghi it worked, but it is also quite difficult option, I'll end up not really understand why it worked Draghi, maybe especially European psychology.
- Because Draghi gave no inside information, and they took counsel how typical bureaucrats, all the information was known.
- I think that in Europe it was known. In general, Draghi it worked, I was already asking questions. Yes, you are going to build an invisible firewall, use "financial bazooka." But how will you apply it? "I intervene at any time." To what extent, what goals are set? And if the goal I need to bang 50 billion from the reserves, I'll go for it? Because if I have only 30, that currency speculators will receive the award, which they are in life could not even dream of. You get rich all, and the situation became worse. When they started to try, threw billion - slightly knocked. Gone - rate began to grow again. Again came again thrown billion - no impact at all.
When they tried for the first time, it became clear that they did not work, and why? Because all previous factors superimposed factor plummeting oil prices.
"PUTIN MET, the ruble and a barrel of oil. AND ALL AROUND 60 "
- What's in these circumstances, waiting for the Russian budget? Compensate for the devaluation fall in oil prices?
- The Central Bank considered as an option in the summer of 60 dollars per barrel. I saw these calculations, they do so: we do not believe that the price will be 60 - $ 70, but for the sake of all you need to show this figure. Therefore, calculations were made extremely sloppy on the knee. They were feykovye calculations, they no one believed. Really no one believed any Bank or analysts, the calculation was not. All guided anecdote: "We met Putin, the ruble and a barrel of oil. And all around 60 ". Nobody really believed just started, I think, only the New Year recalculated.
Now start working "Kudrin's scissors". We all calculations are on a budget, look, without these "scissors". The export duty will be reduced. All say: "Oil revenues in the budget will be the same, only more courses recalculated." And the fact that you have a 6-month lag contract price of gas falls? And there's all the same thing happens, no one sees.
- That is the Russian budget prosyadet?
- Of Course!
- Devaluation is not a plus, and minus?
- It is not a negative, but it is unable to compensate for all. I repeat, all the calculations until the fake. With a budget will be a problem, consider excluding all "Kudrin's scissors", although they are and their parameters are known. In those calculations, I've seen a lot of things are not taken into account.
- A lower production costs will fall?
- Do not drop, the cost is now about $ 15. Price falls below cost and, still traded as what to do something. Reduced fee. Again on the budget, who took into account the fall in imports? We have two main sources: export taxes and duties, they have always been the most stable budget revenues. The budget also this fall. If the recount with such disabilities, there must be taken into account instead of 10 parameters and 30 - 40. But this one is not engaged.
- Who is going to live on the budget adopted by the summer? It's really funny. Will sequester?
- Yes, sequestration, of course, will be. Will spend the reserve fund. By the way, note that when the Americans (it has been seen in the Asian crisis, and now) reduce the supply of dollar global economy, the world economy for some time, there is stable, because wasted gold reserves, everyone starts at the previously accumulated dollars to spend. No outside income, domestic waste, we now begin to deal with the same. Technically FNB will not spend money, but it will be transferred from the securities denominated in US dollars, which generate revenue, in the paper, which are denominated in rubles. Formally NWF nothing will happen either in terms of magnitude, nor with any other. But, in fact, part of the foreign reserves we have lost.
- And in some ruble notes will be translated?
- Bonds of Railways, "Rosneft", something else will come up.
- Finally, this money will be invested in the national economy, will work in the investment projects of the country!
- Yes, but it will reduce our foreign exchange reserves. Reserve funds we spend that too, in fact, part of our gold reserves. This will happen in 2015, not only for us, but we do it will be the most intense, mainly because of the sanctions and oil dependency. This will happen in most developing countries. They will spend their gold reserves, will increase the threat of internal crises in these countries, because in the case of capital flight they will have nothing to defend its currency. The next step - a collapse of the currency. We did not wait for this, and immediately banged currency reserves in order to save. Who is it predicted 90 rubles?
- Ex-Minister of Economy of Tatarstan Marat Safiullin.
- And so it will go rush. Now converted, I will look, it's very ambitious goal, someone makes it more intelligently, someone less competent. This prevents the Central Bank to take decisions about what to do something. It turns out that you need to bang 50 billion, and they are not, and can not stay the same - it's even worse. Useless sacrifice. CB and would like to take control, but it does not even landmarks.
- So after all and 50 is not enough. If you add up all of these factors: the fall in prices, the need to repay debts, a huge demand for the currency, and it is not speculative, but quite real.
- Speculative or speculative, in fact, it is unclear as of now behaving population.
- Quiet?
- You are very wrong, Moscow has already ended in currency exchange offices.
- Moscow - the most westernized city, there are many sick in the head.
- Well, where pro-Western and sick, Muscovites follow the right strategy. They are not nervous, they're just better informed, and they have something to change it.
- And do not come back to the course of 40?
- At these prices for oil is even impossible. I think that the Central Bank is focused on being back in the ruble wide corridor 45 - 50, but rather to the upper boundary.
- It is still possible to talk about?
- More than anything, he can not think. There snap, and it can be even bought up the ruble in the current objective situation. Here the task of the Central Bank - to take it under control. I will say it again: no 40 and 42, may already there are no reserves will not suffice. Or, as discussed, the discount rate of 20 percent do.
- Then everything will crash ...
- Everything will crush, including the financial system ... The banking crisis, instantly. There are many parameters that need to be accurately calculate.
Well jesus man, these Russians scare me I'm trying to be nice! But yet counter the overwhelming "RT" "ron paul" "noam chomsky" "conspiracy false flag 9/11 truther" stuff that is so prevailing in recent years.
