[radon1]

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-01-1 ... pse-63-yoy

Ukraine Default Risk Soars As Reserves Collapse 63% YoY

Amid contingent offers of more bailout loans from Europe, and a looming $3bn debt repayment to Russia, Ukraine's default risk has surged once again to post-crisis record highs. With missing gold and despite foreigners encouraging investment, Ukraine's reserves are in total freefall as this morning's data shows a new low and down a stunning 63% year-over-year.

Expect resumption of the shooting shortly.

[Sixstrings]

Expect resumption of the shooting shortly.

Hm, I don't know if your insinuation there is right or not, but the fighting has resumed:

Ukraine seals off roads to Donbas as fighting intensifies
http://www.kyivpost.com/content/kyiv-post-plus/ukraine-seals-off-roads-to-donbas-as-fighting-intensifies-377219.html

Some other updates, Poroshenko gave a good interview to French tv:

Ukraine's Poroshenko 'proud to be in Paris' for unity rally

Poroshenko accused Russia of delivering the anti-aircraft missile that was used to shoot down Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 in July 2014. He said that German and Dutch journalists have produced "new and effective evidence" of the missile being delivered from Kursk, in Russia.

The Ukrainian president then voiced his concerns about the current situation in Ukraine. He insisted that peace was possible if the Minsk agreement was implemented. However, he said that the ceasefire - a key part of the Minsk deal - was not taking hold because Russian troops and weapons were continuing to cross into Ukraine. He said there are "more than 7,500 Russian soldiers" on Ukrainian soil.

Concerning the rebel-held areas in eastern Ukraine, where the humanitarian situation is critical, Poroshenko said that Kiev is “ready to send them a humanitarian convoy”.

Finally, for the first time, he gave a figure for the amount of money Ukraine will need from international donors and lenders: 13 to 15 billion dollars this year and next.
http://www.france24.com/en/20150112-exclusive-petro-poroshenko-ukrainian-president-russia-troops-crisis-mh17-terrorism/

Interpol puts Yanukovich, now a Russian citizen, on wanted list for embezzlement. Article says Yanukovich was last spotted hanging out with Oliver Stone (figures):

Ukraine ex-leader Yanukovych wanted by Interpol

A red notice for ex-President Yanukovych appeared on Interpol's website on Monday. Under a red notice, Interpol's role is described as assisting a national police force in "identifying and locating these persons with a view to their arrest and extradition or similar lawful action".

Mr Yanukovych, 64, was last seen in a photograph with US film director Oliver Stone, which was said to have been taken in Moscow in December, BBC Kiev correspondent David Stern reports.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-30777844

[Sixstrings]

Russian economy facing "wave of bankruptcies" over these high interest rates:

Russia faces wave of bankruptcies if interest rates don't fall

"Bankers believe that keeping the situation as it stands will cause a wave of bankruptcies, not only credit institutions but also a number of businesses and companies," Aksakov wrote in a letter to the central bank, according to Russian state media.

Aksakov said the central bank must cut rates this month to 15% from 17%, then gradually to 10.5%, the level they were at before the current financial crisis. A central bank rate of 17% meant some companies were having to pay as much as 30% to borrow.
http://money.cnn.com/2015/01/12/news/economy/russia-ruble-bankruptcies/

Remember when I drew the "battered spouse" analogy, with Ukraine as the battered woman trying to get away from Russia?

Someone actually getting paid to do this sh*t ( ) has some kind of battered woman analogy about Russia, so there ya go, it's not just me that this has occurred to. LOTS of abuser / victim codependent dysfunction going on, in things about Russia:

Mother Russia or Battered Spouse?

Peter Pomerantsev portrays a Russia gripped by cynicism, deception, and despair and ruled by an elite whose only concern is perpetuating its own wealth and power.

‘It’s hard to get your head around the idea that they are lying quite so much and quite so brazenly.’

“We cannot help but recognize the familial resemblance between the profile of a violent family and that of the country of Russia,” she wrote in The Moscow Times in 2012. “Mother Russia is the quintessential battered wife.”

Battered wives are kept largely isolated, not allowed to make decisions, and convinced that they must rely on their abusive, often alcoholic husbands for basic necessities and protection from a hostile outside world, she pointed out. While Murray limited her direct analogy to Soviet rulers, her answer to the question about why Russians “continue to marry unhealthy leaders and remain in destructive unhealthy systems” remains valid today: “Because like all battered wives, she seeks what is common and familiar to her.”

Pomerantsev doesn’t invoke her theory directly, but he certainly agrees. Like a battered wife who has become adept at pretending all is well in her marriage, the Kremlin is orchestrating “one great reality show,” he writes, where the language and mechanisms of democracy are employed to mask “undemocratic intent.”
http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/01/12/mother-russia-or-battered-spouse.html

My analogy was about Ukraine, whereas the above author says the Russian people are that "battered woman" too -- I suppose one could conclude that Ukrainains and the Russian people are both victims of the kremlin. And I'm not doing propaganda by the way, there really are some serious codependent dysfunctional things going on here. Any psychologist could pick this thing apart, it's classic. The Russian people and the kremlin, Ukrainains and their (old) government which was the same kind of thing, and Ukrainian people vs. the kremlin.

Lastly, Russia and Turkey are all abuzz with 9/11 truther type USA false flag conspiracy theories.

A big American false flag, mmmhm, even though Obama or Biden couldn't be bothered to hop a plane and give a speech a the rally. It's just a cigar folks, sometimes a cigar is just a cigar.

Russians and turks say it's an American plot, meanwhile French and some others say Washington isn't doing enough or there enough on the issue, for France.

'Did the Americans plan the Paris terror attacks?' asks leading Russian tabloid


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11340360/Did-the-Americans-plan-the-Paris-terror-attacks-asks-leading-Russian-tabloid.html

Russian and Turkish conspiracy theories swirl after Paris attacks
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/8e9e4ac6-9a6e-11e4-8426-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3OfM8j6Ci

[radon1]

Russian economy facing "wave of bankruptcies" over these high interest rates:

Aksakov is a banker, not surprisingly. Basically, this is red herring. If the temperature is -17C in the freezer, then water freezes there, and if temperature is -15C, the water still freezes. In the meantime, the temperature outside may be +20C.

These are overnight rates, they'll accelerate bankruptcies of "businesses" overly reliant on overnight borrowing to finance their working capital (read - a bunch of banks at present, plus de facto insolvent companies). This is an unhealthy situation anyway. And there would be a "wave of bankruptcies" anyway.

[radon1]

Hm, I don't know if your insinuation there is right or not, but the fighting has resumed:

Ukraine is not falling apart, despite being bankrupt. Why? If you didn't notice, Putin has washed his hands and Russian pensioners no longer pay Ukrainian bills (almost). Who does then? If you didn't notice, this is YOU now. The media is totally silent about it, but sooner or later the realization of this fact will descend on you. To pre-empt your reaction, the military operations have to be resumed.

[Sixstrings]

If you didn't notice, Putin has washed his hands and Russian pensioners no longer pay Ukrainian bills (almost). Who does then? If you didn't notice, this is YOU now. The media is totally silent about it, but sooner or later the realization of this fact will descend on you. To pre-empt your reaction, the military operations have to be resumed.

It's hardly any kind of drain on the US gov. Poroshenko says Ukraine needs $15 billion this year, and another $15 billion next year. For starters, this is a shared burden with a large alliance putting money in, it's the US and Germany and UK and EU and Canada and a lot of others.

But yeah, I assume it's us and Germany that's gonna pay for almost all of it.

And, Ukraine money would come from the IMF and all that, there's really no limit to that stuff that's magic banker money. Other than oil / nat gas and action movies, fiat banker money is our #1 export over here. The Federal Reserve alone can just flood a place with all the money in the world. Funded with bonds bought by YOU (or other Russians) as currency flight continues and everyone buys dollars and US bonds for safety. And we can turn around and give it to Ukraine! It's brilliant. Plus we can just print money even if bond sales ever slow down, but that's not a problem now, everybody wants to be in US bonds and dollars.

Do you see how that works? That's what pays for the global cop. There's some trouble in the world, people get scared and buy dollars and bonds, then the US gov uses the money to handle the trouble.

So far, Congress approved $10 billion for Ukraine. I don't know if that's for the regular operating expenses money they need right now or if that's just for extra stuff, or over how many years.

Money is not an issue, on this.

Iraq and Afghanistan, the wars and all the war on terror and then nation building and all the massive amounts of cash going into both places -- that cost a real fortune! I think it all added up to almost a trillion dollars.

Ukraine isn't anything compared to that, but even if it is, the money is there if it is necessary.

US has important strategic interest in east europe, geopolitically it wants Ukaine in with nato and the EU and deals with the US for the same reasons that Putin wanted to keep it. Ultimately though, the US and EU really can turn Ukraine around and Western companies can make money there and it will be profitable in the long run. Russia couldn't make it profitable.

And it will all be better for Ukrainians too, they'll have a better economy and not be poorest in Europe anymore. They won't be a dictatorship, they'll have more EU norms, they'll have the european civil liberties they wanted. They'll be a strong US ally in the EU. They'll be a leader in Europe, too. We need allies like this, like Poland and Ukraine, that are staunch US allies to counter anti-American voices in the EU.

And EU needs some backbone, and new blood, not just old europe. It's good all around for everyone.

I don't mind Ukraine getting money -- I don't even care about or like or understand Afghans or Iraqis, at least I like Ukraine. And Poroshenko is a nice guy, you can just tell he's an honest good guy, watch him in interviews.

Here's what Russia needs, someday: a president that speaks FLUENT ENGLISH. It shouldn't matter, but I think that helps, if a Russian president could do media around the world, speaking a language that people understand. And elect someone that isn't scary. If they're honest and not scary and speaking english, then people could sense that, and Russia wouldn't have any problems.

[Sixstrings]

Here's a RT program, some kind of town hall Putin did:

Putin: West wants to chain the Russian bear, no way they'll stuff it
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a03q4tguUcA

Opening question: "Mr. Putin, what is wrong with our economy, is this the price we have to pay for Crimea?"

(christ Russians you don't need Putin to answer that, I can tell ya that -- OF COURSE it's about Crimea and what you're doing in Ukraine, hellooooo)

Oh I misunderstood that. Putin is the one saying "maybe this is the price we have to pay for the crimea" but he says it rhetorically, and then he says that no, the bad economy is the price that must be paid to preserve Russia as a nation.

Radon, look -- Poroshenko seems like a Westerner to me, he seems like a good honest man and nice guy, he speaks english.

I can't even force myself to watch Putin. I can't totally gauge him because it's not english, if someone is speaking english then I can tell if they are lying or not or full of it or not, etc.

Putin's bodily language is shifty. Not relaxed. I don't know man, it's like he has all you held hostage and just scares you and it's like a cult thing and supposedly the motherland is threatened and all this, and you have to just live with a depression economy because somehow it's for the motherland.

Can't you all just elect someone else? It helps sometimes, we do it every 4 or 8 years, just get somebody new in there already. Shake it up a little bit. Get a breath of fresh air. I voted Obama last time, I may switch and vote Romney next time, or if it's Jeb for the conservatives then I'll have to think about it. See, it's fun, getting to pick somebody new when things are going to crap and the guy in charge doesn't seem to be a good fit anymore.

EDIT:

Putin's list of complaints about the West, and how russian soverignty is threatened, in the above video:

* He says something about the West "supporting terrorists in the caucuses." What's he talking about, Georgia? So Russia is a victim when people fight back against hybrid war? I don't know what he means specifically, about "terrorists" in Russia's old war with Georgia. Russia wound up with a pro-kremlin regime there in the end anyway, so what is he complaining about.

* He says something about the West telling Russia what to do with Siberia, I have zero idea what he is talking about

* He complains how the West behaved during Russia's Olympics

* He says the West wants to make Russia into "a stuffed bear"

None of the above is true, the world community -- the free world, not China and North Korea and Iran and Assad -- would just like it if Russia rejoined the family, like the rest of us are, like Canada and Australia and everywhere else, what's the problem nobody is a "stuffed bear."

[Sixstrings]

Here's a good Canadian / PBS documentary about Putin that just came out.

It ties it all together and tells the whole story in one short program; from his rise to power in the early days, and all through his years in office, on up to today:

Vladimir Putin's Long Shadow
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RAAMPiF_BSg

Radon has said before that Putin "can't retire" and I haven't understood that, but the above program explains it.

Essentially, he has too long a trail of murdered people and corruption and embezzlement. He was chosen by Yeltsin's people in the first place because he showed he's the type that will protect his superior -- at that time, mayor of st. petersburg.

But Putin's got nobody to protect him now, if he did step down. So as the program puts it, he's "master of the kremlin and also its prisoner." He can't step down, he's stuck, it's why he had to run for a 3rd term.

Other highlights, in the program:

* as deputy mayor of st. petersburg he diverted money meant for hungry people, to his cronies and maybe himself. He made propaganda videos saying thousands of tons of butter and milk and wheat were on the way to the hungry (it was the 90s, the whole city was hungry). But the food never came. Either it never got bought or it was diverted and sold, and his cronies just took the money.

The case was recommended to prosecutors, and eventually squashed after Putin became president.

* there's strong evidence that Russian FSB secret service did the apartment bombings that Putin blamed on Chechens. Putin stepped into the middle of that crisis and used it, and started a war with Chechnya over it where many thousands of civilians were killed in the streets.

Worse -- it really does look like FSB bombed its own people, those Russians in those apartments, and as prime minister Putin had to have known about it and he was in the thick of everything after that so of course it was him, if it was in fact FSB. It was later discovered that the bombs were military grade explosives and control devices that only the army uses.

* Putin turned Russia into a kelptocracy, with lots of embezzlement for him. Various schemes like medicines imported from the USA getting a 40% markup and "Rosinvest" -- Putin is 94% shareholder -- getting the markup. So, all kinds of murky schemes and things, and Putin is actually one of the wealthiest men in the world with a $40 billion fortune.

He built a palace on the Black Sea, costing hundreds of millions.

* Around 2003, the West wanted Russia to start changing things and stop the corruption. So, the oligarchs had a meeting to discuss that -- in their opinion, it would be better for Russia as a nation to go ahead and cut out the corruption. One of the billionaires pushed it too far, and he was also into democracy ideas and reform. Putin had him arrested and sent to prison in Siberia for 10 years, and he seized all his companies and gave it to his cronies.

* Putin first thought he could do a "managed democracy" in Russia, but democracy is impossible given the Russian system of corruption. Putin steered the country toward "mild authoritarianism" at first, and it got progressively worse over the years, and will eventually wind up in "harsh authoritarianism."

* According to the program, there's a veneer of prosperity in Russia's cities, but most of the people live in the rest of the country, and the poverty there is very bad and production has never increased since Soviet times. They've remained stagnant.

Essentially, one man, Putin, has held Russia back from ever becoming modern and progressing.

* Putin is KGB, and will never change. People that tried to investigate the apartment bombings issue, were murdered. Presumably on his orders.

* He thinks Russia is owed everything it lost in the USSR collapse, and really does want to take places back, if he can.

So anyhow.. with all that in mind.. what is interesting about Ukraine is that it has the chance to make the change and progress, the chance that Russia never had -- that Putin prevented them from having. THAT is why this whole story is so interesting and compelling.

[radon1]

The Federal Reserve alone can just flood a place with all the money in the world.

They cannot, they'll destroy the currency.

And we can turn around and give it to Ukraine! It's brilliant.

Definitely. Enjoy.

[AgentR11]

Six..

The "bad" economy in Russia is due to decades of Central bank currency manipulation and federal government over-regulation. Crimea, or no Crimea, the economy would still be "bad".

That said, the economy of Putin's Russia of 2015 is far healthier than it has been in forever, so there's a certain sense of progressing from catastrophe that you or I can't really appreciate. With the float, deregulation, and opening to Chinese interests and needs, Russia will likely progress further in measured industrial output than it could have under any other path.

And that's kinda whats so hard for us to grasp; the US, even as an exporter of oil, was an exporter of EXCESS oil at spectacularly low prices; exported if only because its either sell it or dump it. Our industrial output was never second fiddle to resource export. So none of our mental models can work, when we look at Russia, which allowed its resource export activities to dominate its policy; to the point that the central bank actively corrupted the value of their currency in order to make chocolate bars and sports cars cheap for the basically low-productive populace who "pretend to work, while pretending to be paid".

The change that Putin is attempting to force on Russia is essentially on the scale of the original industrial revolution of the West. If he makes it happen, he could end up one of the wealthiest individuals in the world; if he fails, he dies. If he concedes to the West and allows resource export to drive the currency again, he dies. He's all in; and there is no undoing it.

This is what really bothers me about the Western media push for destabilizing Russia or seeking regime change. The last time that happened, a general went to the chief with the suitcase, but the chief's interests were aligned with the West, and he said no. If it happens again, that general will go to the chief (Putin), and Putin's choices will be to not launch and guarantee his personal death, or roll the dice and launch all, and hope to survive in a command bunker.

If you are hoping for regime change in Russia, you might as well honestly and vocally be advocating that Russia start the final war; because that is what you will get; not because Russia is strong, but because it is weak and fragile yet its finger rests on the trigger of a world ending gun.

Fortunately, the current Western sanctions do not act in a way that destabilizes, or even really weakens Russia. The sanctions eat into the prosperity of those who never really deserved it. The sanctions and counter sanctions work to the advantage of Russians who want to create products, in Russia, with Russian resources, for sale to Russians, Indians, and Chinese. Thus, while I think they are pointless for the stated objective of getting Russia to leave Crimea, I don't think they significantly increase the risk of ending this pleasurable, luxurious world we have built for ourselves in the US/EU.

In the end, its all about comparatives. There probably aren't enough people to make a bridge club in Russia that would trade the pre-Putin economy for what they have now. The train wreck we helped create after the USSR came apart was bad beyond anything we have experience with.

Its predictable, when you defeat an enemy; and do not go the high-dollar, huge rebuilding path; that that enemy will grow again, and be stronger, and more agile, and more cunning than it ever was before. That is where we are going now. A Russia that will NOT chase in an arms race; a Russia that will simply create opportunities for them to spend a few million in order to cause us to spend billions. They can do that over, and over, and over. And get away with it; and the more detached they become from Western economies, the easier it will be for them to do. And if you think China will object, and curtail them? You're insane; the easiest win for China militarily is to have a sorta-ally that will cause China's potential adversaries to spend huge sums of treasure for defense... on the opposite side of the planet.

And guess what... still no Mystrals. And guess what mark 2?? No indication Moscow will build any Mystrals of its own. No nation bankrupting carriers, no force projection battle groups. Just corvettes and ssn's by the bucket full. Tons of cheap air defense; highly efficient, modern strategic forces; lots of modern fighters meant to launch from land bases.

They will not chase.
They will not try to recreate the failures of the USSR.
The will defend what is necessary to maintain their strategic relevance; but otherwise... They'll just watch as we throw away millions every time they fly obnoxiously in the baltic sea.

We're being played, by a master of the craft. And we aren't bringing our A game to the table.

[radon1]

Here's what Russia needs, someday: a president that speaks FLUENT ENGLISH.

Like Obamsta?

[Sixstrings]

The Federal Reserve alone can just flood a place with all the money in the world.

They cannot, they'll destroy the currency.

Not going to argue with you over minutia, but you do realize the power of the us central bank right? It's actually THE most powerful domestic institution here. Unelected, undemocratic; few understand it or even know what the words "federal reserve" mean or what a central bank is.

In the global financial crisis, it was the us federal reserve that was sending money out all over the world -- outrageously, to places like Ghadaffi in Libya even, and money went to Russia. Global banking is a machine and the US central bank is just at the top of it, the largest and central piston of that global engine.

The Fed isn't doing moneization (buying its own bonds aka "moneyprinting") anymore, that was just for the financial crisis and then recession / depression. It's for monetary policy.

But it CAN. If the money is needed, the money will always be there. That's how we won the cold war -- Reagan ran up the debt, did that last arms race and USSR couldn't keep up. The military and arms race is funded by debt spending, the debt are US bonds the rest of the world buys, those bonds are essentially money transfer from the rest of the world to here, like a global tax -- and fair enough, someone's gotta pay for the global cop.

USA can only do this because its dollars and bonds are always in top demand. Over half of all dollars are held in foreign hands, offshore, the dollar is global currency. It would take A MASSIVE LOT of "money printing" to seriously devalue the dollar, because this dollar is the world dollar, that devaluation is really exported to the world and it's spread out all over the world. The Russian ruble is just Russia, the US dollar is the planet's dollar.

Anyhow -- little Ukraine isn't going to need any budget-busting massive help like that, really $15 billion is nothing if you split it up fairly between all the West. Germany will complain about it and be miserly about it, but that's just how they are, they have to deal with Portugal and Spain and Greece and all of those too.

Strategically, the best thing Ukraine can do for itself is position this as a cold war thing. If Russia is aggressive and belligerent, then that plays right into that. If Ukraine is on the verge of a bankruptcy and Russia is rattling sabres and all this cold war going on, then Ukraine can just come to the congress and say "we need money, you don't want to lose the Ukraine to the Russians do you?"

Whatever help Ukraine gets is completely linked to however confrontational and a "threat" that Russia is. The more Russia does, the more Ukraine will get.

Hopefully -- Ukraine will not be a total drain forever and ever, the plan really is to make it like Poland and not Greece.

And we can turn around and give it to Ukraine! It's brilliant.

Definitely. Enjoy.

Do you see the irony? It's true. Russians are buying dollars and US bonds right now. The money Ukraine gets, just like most of the US budget is, is funded with Fed debt. Russians buy US bonds in capital flight, US uses that money to give to Ukraine, Russians get more scared and buy more bonds. It's like a cycle or something.

As for "enjoy" -- well, I really do hope to see Ukraine become like Poland. Don't you?

Poland is a model for east europe, it's stable, it's on a modern track, it's got rule of law and normality and eu norms and civil liberties.

I will enjoy it, the cause for Ukraine sure beats Iraq and frickin' Afghansitan, here's some good we're doing for once, to help a whole nation out that really does want to join the west and really did turn its back on dictatorship and turned its back on the other side -- they chose us, not China and North Korea and Iran and the kremlin.

Of course I hope it has a happy ending, we don't get many of those you know, we did good for Japan and South Korea -- we screwed up others, Vietnam, Iraq. Maybe Ukraine will be one for the "we got it right" column. And if we DO get it right in Ukraine, then Ukraine will change Russia one day by its example, and then Russia will be a friend and Russia will stop the arms buildup directed at us and we can get rid of all the nukes and no more Russian bombers on our borders.

Winning in Ukraine, making Ukraine strong and a success, is directly connected to our national security -- winning in Ukraine will ultimately change Russia for the better, and eliminate that top natl sec threat.

Putin tells you it's making you a "stuffed bear" -- but do you really just WANT to be the "bad guy?" We don't want a stuffed bear, we just want someone that's not gonna nuke us, we want a friend like Canada is, like Poland is, like Ukraine is. Finland and Lithuania and all Russia's neighbors don't want a "stuffed bear" either, they just want a neighbor they can feel safe that they aren't gonna invade them and pick them apart with annexations and separatist states.

It's not about making Russia a "stuffed bear," it's about making Russia a friend, just as Lithuania is a friend with Finland and the two do not fear invasion from the other. So what's so bad about that. I assume you don't really want WWIII and wars all over Europe.

Russia cannot win this thing, if it's a cold war they want to win, that's insane -- Russia is not going to nuke us and we already figured that out about you so you've lost your trump card. And you don't want to be terrorists and evil bad guys anyway. Russia can't win it. The USSR couldn't win it, the West has more money, the West will always win any arms race and cold war, we won it the last time and we'll definitely win it again against a Russia that's a fraction of the old USSR.

The only way Russia can win is to just join the winning team. That team is not the likes of Iran, and North Korea -- those are the pariahs. Why choose that, that axis is a loser man, it's a total loser and Russia would do better with the West. Why join an alliance where everyone is sanctioned and starving, the people living under genuine oppression and dictatorship, why CHOOSE that. I don't honestly don't get it.

(actually, I do understand it: because of the 90s, Russians think that only Putin or another strong man dictator type can ever lead. They don't realize they can be Western, and successful. They don't realize that it isn't just a Hitler than can make trains run on time, but a Merkel can too -- you don't have to choose dictatorship, it's not the only way.

They've got no frame of reference for that, what a true democratic, stable Russia on equal terms and friendly with Europe just as Poland is, would be like.

So that's what Ukraine is about. The West will make Ukraine into what Russia could have been, and Russians will take note and will want it too.)

[Sixstrings]

Long story short (or somewhat short ):

If Russia doesn't want a fight with the USA, then don't pick a fight.

If Russia doesn't like cold war style "America leading the free world" -- then don't do this self-fulfilling prophecy thing, do not scare Lithuania and Finland, do not scare people into flocking to American leadership.

Over and over and over again, Putin CAUSES the very thing to happen that he says he is trying to make not happen. He's gonna lose Russia's euro gas customers, to friendlier providers. What is the sense in that? Why should Germany buy any gas from someone that's so confrontational with them?

I can understand people not liking the USA, but if Russia can't even get along with lefty softies like Finland and Germany then there is a problem with Russia -- not the rest of the world.

Lastly, cold war nostalgia is compelling and a bit of fun for both sides but for Russia *it is not rational* -- this is not a video game, Russia is not the USSR and not even the USSR was able to win it. Today's Russia has the gdp of Italy. One italy-sized state cannot defy the rest of the world, and make all its neighbors scared of "hybrid war separatist state / annexation."

That's not going to end well, it's just not. ALL it does is feed into what EVERY dictatorship is REALLY about -- protection of the REGIME, not the people. Fear of the "other" is what keeps the fascist in power.

It's really very wrong, dictatorship is nothing but horrible suffering for the PEOPLE and it's never for the fatherland or motherland, it's always for the junta in charge. A "Putin" will start all these fights with his neighbors, and then he'll turn around to his people and say "look at all these things they are doing to us, that's why you're suffering, it's all their fault, now give me more power and weapons to cause more problems so I can make everyone even more miserable."

And I've said this before -- even if Russians really did want Empire again -- they made their move too soon! Way too soon. Russia needed another 20-30 years of smart development, at least, before going imperial. Putin's blunder is the same as Napoleon's blunder, and dictators always do this, they always overplay their hand, they always go too far, and it is their folly and downfall.

I guess Russia is trying to FORCE its leadership onto people, it resents it that others may choose to follow Germany or the US. But you just can't do that, it may work for a Russian leader in Russia -- this strong man bully stuff -- but it is NEVER going to work on free people in other countries, they do not like it, they will rebel against and fight it.

Russia needs to be friendlier to its neighbors, and don't scare them, and use more honey than vinegar with people -- it's respect to people, it's how you handle people in any kind of group dynamics, and nobody ever likes a bully forcing their leadership onto the group, rather than EARNING it and people CHOOSING to follow.

[Withnail]

If Russia doesn't like cold war style "America leading the free world" -- then don't do this self-fulfilling prophecy thing, do not scare Lithuania and Finland, do not scare people into flocking to American leadership.

America leads a group of vassal states, not the free world.

Lithuania being a good case in point. What's the point of countries like Lithuania? They're a joke.

[dissident]

If Russia doesn't like cold war style "America leading the free world" -- then don't do this self-fulfilling prophecy thing, do not scare Lithuania and Finland, do not scare people into flocking to American leadership.

America leads a group of vassal states, not the free world.

Lithuania being a good case in point. What's the point of countries like Lithuania? They're a joke.

The Baltic statelets formed off the trade between lands to the east and Europe many centuries ago. They have actually been living off such trade until now. But the current round of sanctions from NATO is finally cutting them off. Russia is in the process of diverting the shipment of goods to its own ports.

[Sixstrings]

America leads a group of vassal states, not the free world.

Lithuania being a good case in point. What's the point of countries like Lithuania? They're a joke.

You know, it's not really true, man, it's just not. The West is an alliance. And everyone blames the gentle giant on top of it, but yet there's no other "giant" they'd rather have.

We actually change over here, and we actually do listen. All that criticism from the rest of the world about Iraq really did change us. It's a big reason why people voted to end the war in Iraq, they voted for Obama, for Christ sake I was a Bush-supporting Republican and changed parties and voted Obama -- the rest of the world influenced US policy.

It's how a family is supposed to work, you listen to each other. You give and take. Will Russians ever elect someone else and change course, because you want them to? No! But we do.

Here's the irony -- American hegemony was at its END, really, and we were all okay with that. Who really wants to go to war and get PTSD fighting the world's battles in some god awful desert? I mean seriously, people don't want this sh*t.

EU -- led by Germany -- was showing independence and saying "no" to George Bush. Bush team was warning about Ukraine, that you'd better get it into nato, that Russia was gonna go for it next after Georgia. Europeans said "no." And that was okay. The gentle giant didn't twist arms and force you to agree, we just went along with you, okay.

So then Russia does all this stuff, and the Bush team turned out right after all, and now it's cold war again and everyone is flocking to the US again and looking for leadership.

The free world blames us for everything, yet when TSHTF and we've got Obama in there -- a non-interventionist we elected because you said that's what you wanted -- now the world complains that we aren't leading enough and doing enough.

The discourse in Europe and elsewhere actually is a lot of complaining the USA isn't around anymore, and leading. Saudis complain we didn't handle Syria. East europe was yelling that Russians are on the move and Obama isn't interested.

That's the real truth.

It's a family, nobody's a vassal -- if you do want us to be "father knows best" then don't tear us down so much, maybe.

Who else do you want to be a vassal to, anyway? China? Russia? An islamic caliphate?

Make your choice rest of the world, we'll actually be okay either way, it's fine with us, if you want our help we are there if you do not want it then that is cool too -- but make up your mind.

[dissident]

This Six$ retard is being coddled in this and other threads. He pulls whatever nugget of excrement from his mental anus and people treat it like some valid "fact".

Russia's bad economy consists of personal monthly incomes going from $80 to $960 from 1998 to 2013. I use dollar terms since the that is a consistent reference for this period of time. The purchasing power has not evapourated over the last several months, BTW.

Russia's unemployment figures say it all. They are at historic lows:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-2 ... -grow.html

Russia's "bad" economy is obviously much better than most of the EU.

[Sixstrings]

This Six$ retard is being coddled in this and other threads. He pulls whatever nugget of excrement from his mental anus and people treat it like some valid "fact".

Well, there you go guys, the typical Russian view on things and how they deal with people that say things they do not like.

Do you want nice friendly Americans in charge, or Russians in charge? Obviously a lot of people choose the Americans, we don't talk to anyone that way.

They know they're losing. They're so damn stubborn though, jesus. I don't even know what it is that they want to win -- if it's the right to annex places and force their will on free people then they are NEVER going to be granted that, EVER.

If they want to be a leader, they're going to have to earn it and do things the right way and people choose to follow them -- forcing people, and shutting down free speech, it may work in Russia but it will NEVER work on free people in the free world.

Russia's bad economy consists of personal monthly incomes going from $80 to $960 from 1998 to 2013. I use dollar terms since the that is a consistent reference for this period of time. The purchasing power has not evapourated over the last several months, BTW.

Please remember that anything I say on here, nobody reads, so don't get too angry about it.

I linked a Canadian tv documentary that millions of people saw. You'd do better to watch that and correct things that may or may not be wrong, in that.

(if that's the post that made you so angry, I was just summarizing what was in that documentary. so address the assertations in that, rather than shouting "anus". Chill out. Don't fall down a rabbit hole. The world already has islamic fascists, we seriously do not need Russians yelling at us too and flipping out and not able to tolerate free speech, not able to discuss in a free speech free market without resorting to bullying tactics -- isn't that what the islamists do, too?

Here's what I honestly think: Russian people know they're wrong and that's why they get so angry about all this and can't tolerate the free speech. If you are right, then why would you get so angry. People only resort to bullying and anger when they know they are wrong.

If I ever conclude that is how a pro-Russia poster really is, then I would never discuss anything with them, it's as impossible as talking to an extreme muslim. You just don't do it, you don't even talk to them, it's impossible, because they do not respect your right to question them.)

[Withnail]

America leads a group of vassal states, not the free world.

Lithuania being a good case in point. What's the point of countries like Lithuania? They're a joke.

You know, it's not really true, man, it's just not. The West is an alliance. And everyone blames the gentle giant on top of it, but yet there's no other "giant" they'd rather have.

Lithuania is geographically not in western Europe and has nothing to do with western Europe culturally.

It has contributed a sum total of nothing to Western civilisation.

Its function is as a puppet state, or as the Nazis found, eager recruits for SS extermination squads.