[Sixstrings]

Sounds like NATO had a few days notice:

A Topol missile which was in transit outside Moscow last week, Reuters reports

The Russian military says it has test-fired an intercontinental ballistic missile, as tension continues over Ukraine's Crimea region.

The US said it was given advance notice of the missile launch, as required by bilateral arms treaties.

"We have been notified of this test earlier this week, it's not unexpected," a defence official told the AFP news agency.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26442381

[steam_cannon]

And now that uncle has pulled out an ICBM and fired it off.

(CNN now saying that the US had advance warning before the crisis, and the 4 hour thing is a window during which the test would be done. Analysis on CNN is that it would have been swell if Russia could have not done this test right now, with tensions so high. I posted before about these new warheads, and that appears to be what they just tested)

Yes they did.

Russia Test Fires Intercontinental Ballistic Missile (March 04, 2014)

glue.jpg

[Sixstrings]

Six, Uncle may be drunk but he told the US he was about to shoot one off back before this whole deal started.

BBC article said "earlier this week." That's not much notice, though within treaty terms. Let's not be idiots though, it is what it is, and it's a message.

EDIT: By the way.. maybe somebody mentioned the shale gas issue this back in the thread, but I noticed former Georgian PM Sakashvili on Foxnews talking about Crimea having a lot of shale gas. Apparently, Ukraine could have been energy independent from Russia and develop that shale along with Americans and compete with Gazprom.

So, ergo, Russia must take Crimea. And poor Ukrainians get the shaft again, can't even develop their shale because Russia is just taking it. What we may see with Russia, in the future, are not so much cold war but rather Gazprom wars.

[steam_cannon]

Good points SC. But land and people without energy is no prize going forward - at least in the near term.

His economy now is market based. He has plenty of energy for his countrymen if he chose to give the world the finger and cut exports but it would mean the end of his economy, wouldn't it?

Well how reasonable war would be to Putin may depends a lot on what he expects for the future.

cliff.gif

If Putin is something of a doomer and expects the world will change in a bad way soon, he could start acting real crazy. He might not place as much faith in simply being friendly with neighbors or hoping technology will work things out. Also right now may be the last chance for Russia to establish itself as a greater power while he's alive. Taking land is always a prize for a tyrant, as if you let people starve it can mean more food resources for your own people, more solar resources, fishing resources, ports and better "food for fuel" resources. I think a lot depends on what Putin and his staff expect for the future. If he expects a major collapse in oil production and economy's and if he is enough of a tyrant, then things could get real crazy. Though I hope they won't.

[radon1]

Taking land is always a prize for a tyrant, as if you let people starve it can mean more food resources for your own people, more solar resources, fishing resources, ports and better "food for fuel" resources.

With much of Ukraine it would actually mean only more moochers, as the things stand now. Therefore do not expect blind non-calculated obsession with territories.

[ROCKMAN]

Stumbled across this tidbit about Mr. Kerry's subtle threat about going after the ruble with sanctions:

A cheaper ruble and more expensive oil could actually go a long way in improving Russia's economy, possibly offsetting other potential aftershocks of the Ukraine crisis. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry in interviews on Sunday identified the ruble's slide as among Russia's economic challenges that could get worse if Western powers retaliated economically for a takeover of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula by armed men thought to be Russian troops. He was speaking after President Vladimir Putin won unanimous approval from the parliament to use armed forces in Ukraine. The currency declined further in Monday trading, but a ruble that is losing value is a great prop for struggling local manufacturers, which now find themselves more competitive with Western imports. Besides, oil prices that edged up about $2 a barrel Monday are creating additional income for a federal budget that depends on these revenues heavily. "Some of the consequences [of the Ukraine situation] can be for the better," said Oleg Kuzmin, an economist for Russia at investment bank Renaissance Capital. "First of all, it is the weaker ruble, which will … slow down the growth in imports."

So again it begs the question: exactly what are those potentially damaging sanctions the world's largest oil importer could inflict on the world's largest oil producer? And exactly how would the EU, a significant NG importer, go about punishing a NG exporting country that has greater NG reserves than any other county on the planet? So yes: cutting NG exports to the EU would put a crimp on Mr. Putin's budget. So maybe the Russian people will force him from power??? And when the EU politicians, as a result of punishing Russia, see their people freeze and industries crippled thy should expect landslide victories next time they run for office???

Oh yeah...that's exactly how the real world works. You known how you come out OK when your opponent is holding a royal straight flush? Easy: you fold before you lose your ass.

[Pops]

Yes, Six, let's not be idiots, Russia regularly test missiles. I did a search by year and every year as far back as I went were dramatic headlines bleating "Russia tests missile!"

It isn't irrelevant but I think mostly because Pooty-Poot likes to flex his muscles and sometimes that gets you in trouble.

--
You're right Steam, I look at Putin as a left-over cold warrior and quite the narcissist, which makes him pretty dangerous if he thinks we're all going down. He said years ago that cost were rising rapidly and "the era of cheap gas is over" so he is no stranger to the idea of peak.

--
Like Radon says, Ukraine has been in arrears to russia by billions a couple of times recently.

[steam_cannon]

With most of Ukraine, or at least a good part of it, it would actually mean only more moochers...

You made some good points. Though regarding moochers, one bit of Ukraine history popped into my mind. 84 years ago extermination by starvation happened in Ukraine. That's in living memory and history repeats itself. Land always has value and "moochers" are optional.

[dolanbaker]

Oh yeah...that's exactly how the real world works. You known how you come out OK when your opponent is holding a royal straight flush? Easy: you fold before you lose your ass.

From a European perspective, that's about the size of it!

[steam_cannon]

Yes, Six, let's not be idiots, Russia regularly test missiles. I did a search by year and every year as far back as I went were dramatic headlines bleating "Russia tests missile!"

It isn't irrelevant but I think mostly because Pooty-Poot likes to flex his muscles...

That's a good point, they are making a statement with the missile timing but also it's something they do every year.

[dolanbaker]

BAU is back, well almost.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-26429659
Global stock markets have steadied on Tuesday, with Russia's main share index up more than 5%, after concerns about Ukraine sparked a sell-off on Monday.

Markets across Europe were higher on Tuesday, with the FTSE 100 up 1.7% and Frankfurt's Dax up 2.5%.

The recovery came despite Russia's threat to abandon the US dollar as the country's reserve currency.

Well this could upset the US but not the Chinese.

[Pops]

ROCK a quick search says the previous trouble with Putin shutting off the gas has led to the EU increasing gas imports from Algeria, Qatar, etc (along with Norway's increasing production) and they've improving their storage capacity quite a bit too. Still Russia supplies 25%, not great but better than the 45% of a few years ago.

And besides the EU is warming quite nicely as of late.

[Quinny]

I have been thinking this all along.

Stumbled across this tidbit about Mr. Kerry's subtle threat about going after the ruble with sanctions:

A cheaper ruble and more expensive oil could actually go a long way in improving Russia's economy, possibly offsetting other potential aftershocks of the Ukraine crisis. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry in interviews on Sunday identified the ruble's slide as among Russia's economic challenges that could get worse if Western powers retaliated economically for a takeover of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula by armed men thought to be Russian troops. He was speaking after President Vladimir Putin won unanimous approval from the parliament to use armed forces in Ukraine. The currency declined further in Monday trading, but a ruble that is losing value is a great prop for struggling local manufacturers, which now find themselves more competitive with Western imports. Besides, oil prices that edged up about $2 a barrel Monday are creating additional income for a federal budget that depends on these revenues heavily. "Some of the consequences [of the Ukraine situation] can be for the better," said Oleg Kuzmin, an economist for Russia at investment bank Renaissance Capital. "First of all, it is the weaker ruble, which will … slow down the growth in imports."

So again it begs the question: exactly what are those potentially damaging sanctions the world's largest oil importer could inflict on the world's largest oil producer? And exactly how would the EU, a significant NG importer, go about punishing a NG exporting country that has greater NG reserves than any other county on the planet? So yes: cutting NG exports to the EU would put a crimp on Mr. Putin's budget. So maybe the Russian people will force him from power??? And when the EU politicians, as a result of punishing Russia, see their people freeze and industries crippled thy should expect landslide victories next time they run for office???

Oh yeah...that's exactly how the real world works. You known how you come out OK when your opponent is holding a royal straight flush? Easy: you fold before you lose your ass.

[AndyA]

What is interesting to me is watching all these former totalitarians run up against global markets and even more, global communication.

It's like back in the day when dad would whip mom and the kids at will, it was simply accepted because he was the source of income, to go against him was the kiss of poverty. Mom going to work made all the difference, and though she may still be emotionally handcuffed she is no longer completely dependent.

Not sure what happens in the future to either situation. I'd expect the Putins and Assads and Yanuco-whatevers of the world to try to hold on to power and continue plundering but, ya know, when cousin Ivan posts up on facebook that in his newly liberal country the opportunities abound and meanwhile back in the old country the same old shenanigans go on and on . . .

PO won't change the dynamic, merely the relative wealth.

Time to update your thinking Pops. Russian avg. wages up over 50% since 2010, US avg. wages not so much. How are some of those newly liberal countries you know Libya, Egypt, Tunisia doing, ya know. Or do you have a better example of a newly liberal country, Iraq, perhaps Afghanistan? Cousin Ivan is quite impressed with how well things are going in Russia.

[AndyA]

The recovery came despite Russia's threat to abandon the US dollar as the country's reserve currency.

That is just such a dumb thing to say. The Rouble is Russia's currency, Russia does hold some treasuries, about $140 Billion. Russia generally trades in Euros and Yuan, with little preference for Dollars.

[Sixstrings]

That's a good point, they are making a statement with the missile timing but also it's something they do every year.

It's not a point to argue about back and forth, just my opinion that the fact *they didn't cancel the test* is the message. Putin knew this would be provocative, going through with that test and firing the missile, with all these minute-to-minute tensions and Turkey scrambling F-16s.

[Plantagenet]

Look at it from Putin's point of view. He says there are no Russian troops in Crimea. If the Russians aren't actually in Crimea then firing off a missile isn't a provocation.


There are no troops---no missiles---no worries----just trust me!

[Keith_McClary]

Look at it from Putin's point of view. He says there are no Russian troops in Crimea. If the Russians aren't actually in Crimea then firing off a missile isn't a provocation.

Last week, representatives of the US military, the Pentagon and the Department of Energy announced new details about the B-61 program in a hearing in the House Armed Services Committee's Subcommittee on Strategic Forces. The new variant of the nuclear bomb, called the B61-12, is now expected to replace the older types 3, 4, 7 and 10 as well as the bunker-busting B-61-11 and B-83 strategic nuclear bombs. The latter has an explosive power of up to 1.2 megatons of TNT, making it more than 90 times more powerful than the bomb dropped on Hiroshima.

The first B-61-12 is expected to be completed by 2020. By 2024, all the old bombs are expected to be replaced. Then, according to the plan, the new weapons will be deployable using fighter jets like the F-16, the new F-35 and with strategic bombers like the B-2 "Spirit" or the planned new LRS-B bomber.

The German Tornado fighter bombers stationed at Büchel will also be equipped to be able to use the new B-61-12 weapons, but only as analog ballistic glide bombs ("System 1"). The "System 2" weapons will be modern, digital nuclear precision bombs designed for modern digital fighter-bombers like the F-35, the "Joint Strike Fighter". This will be made possible by adding a state of the art new guided bomb Tail Kit Assembly that is being developed simultaneously with the B-61-12 by Boeing. Some 800 of these new tail kits are to be purchased at an expected cost of $1.6 billion.
http://www.spiegel.de/international/wor ... 32188.html

[AndyA]

The first B-61-12 is expected to be completed by 2020.

Meanwhile Russia has already deployed the s-400, and the s-500 may already be in production.

[Graeme]

Putin among Nobel Peace nominees but Ukraine might figure too

Russian President Vladimir Putin has been nominated for the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize - but the conflict in Ukraine is also likely to be on the Nobel committee's agenda.

A record 278 candidates, including 47 organisations, received nominations for the 2014 prize, said the Norwegian Nobel Institute's director, Geir Lundestad.

Committee members who met on Tuesday added their own proposals with a focus on recent turmoil around the globe.

reuters