[Withnail]

If you want a laptop or phone get it from China. THat'll be done in roubles/yuan.

Just some adjustments. Don't buy from the West.

Sounding very confused. Goods from China are not imports?

Laptops and phones are already imported from China in huge numbers. As everything else.

And how much have imports from China fallen as opposed to imports from the West?

[dissident]

You know what they say about opinions and a**holes. Everyone has one.

No a 5% hypothetical drop is not a depression. A depression is a 25% GDP drop.

Oh, looky here in 2009 the US GDP dropped by 2.8%. Does that mean that the USA was about 60% of a depression that year?

http://useconomy.about.com/od/GDP-by-Ye ... istory.htm

I guess the fact that Russia's unemployment (ILO standard) is 5.4% and not growing must be further evidence that it is in a depression. Since the US always had peak employment during depressions and recessions.



Hilarious.

[dissident]

If you want a laptop or phone get it from China. THat'll be done in roubles/yuan.

Just some adjustments. Don't buy from the West.

Sounding very confused. Goods from China are not imports?

Laptops and phones are already imported from China in huge numbers. As everything else.

And how much have imports from China fallen as opposed to imports from the West?

You are disturbing the liberast narrative bubble.

[Withnail]

You are disturbing the liberast narrative bubble.

I've been warned that I 'need to chill' by an American who seems to be in charge here so I'd better stop posting for tonight.

[SeaGypsy]

The use of expletives here is a touchy subject & has been a long time. Using the f word, 'you' & 'stupid', in the same sentence towards anyone here would get some red text & a note to pull your socks up, directing such at a senior mod just makes the process quicker. If you knew Pops style, you would know he is a graceful debater who doesn't resort to kyboshing folks who disagree with him.

[kublikhan]

Warm winters don't reduce consumption of Russian gas by the EU by any large factor:

Your data does not include 2014. 2014 was an unusually warm winter. EU imports of Russian gas fell by more than 10% in 2014.

Russian gas consumption is not just for heating.

EU gas consumption in the electricity sector is taking a hit too. Stagnating electricity demand combined with competition from renewables is cutting into gas consumption in the power market.

But what does it matter if it's resold, it's still being consumed.

EU gas consumption is falling just as fast as it's imports, if not faster. If anything, I expect imports to make up a growing share of EU consumption as the EU's domestic fields continue to age and decline in output.

• Gas consumption and net imports of gas in the EU declined respectively by 14% and 9% in the first nine months of 2014 in comparison to the same period in 2013. Consumption declined in all Member States, with the biggest decrease in Estonia (31%), Germany (30%) and Slovakia (40%). Much of this decrease in consumption resulted from an unseasonably mild weather in the first half of 2014 compared to an unusually cold winter and spring of 2013.

• Russian imports fell, especially in the second half of 2014. Norwegian imports increased. Russian imports on the Slovakian route decreased by more than 40%, which was only partly offset by the rise on the Nord Stream. Norwegian imports increased and in the last quarter Norway clearly outperformed Russia. In volume terms Russian imports decreased by more than 10%.

• Historically high levels of storage and mild weather were experienced in the fourth quarter.

• LNG imports increased in the last quarter of 2014, as the price difference between Asia and Europe almost vanished.

• The fall in crude oil prices is set to pass through oil-indexed contracts gradually, starting in 2015, which leads to the expectation of further gas price falls in 2015.

• Gas use continues to fall in power generation, driven by stagnating electricity consumption, the poor competitiveness of gas vis-à-vis other fuels and the growing penetration of renewables. Four of the five markets for which data are reported (Table 1) have seen a fall in the gas input to the power sector in 2014. In the last six years, gas consumption in the electricity sector has halved in Italy and decreased by more than 70% in Spain. Germany also saw a significant decline: gas use for power generation fell by 34% between 2010 and 2014. In 2014, the share of gas in the electricity mix tipped below 10%.

Quarterly Report Energy on European Gas Markets

OAO Gazprom, the state-run gas-pipeline export monopoly, supplied no more than 195 billion cubic meters of fuel from Russia to the European Union, Turkey and the Commonwealth of Independent States, according to UBS AG estimates. That’s about 10 percent less than in 2013.

While Gazprom’s share of the EU market is seen unchanged at about 30 percent, the 28-nation bloc trimmed its gas consumption 9 percent last year, the fourth annual drop.

Russia 2014 Gas Export Seen Lowest in Decade as Demand Falls

[tita]

Is it me, or whenever we talk about Russia in any negative way, there's always some people coming out and barking how western propaganda newspapers are lying about the real situation. But what is Russia's official propaganda newspaper saying?

http://sputniknews.com/russia/20150725/1025030954.html

Russian Economy Ready to Thrive Despite Setbacks – Chinese Media

The Russian economy is on the rise, but some challenges have yet to be resolved, according to the Chinese newspaper Renmin Ribao.

The Russian-language version of the Chinese newspaper Renmin Ribao (People's Daily) said in its editorial that the Russian economy is showing sustainable growth but that it has yet to overcome an array of challenges.

The newspaper recalled that recently, the World Bank and other international organizations made a forecast that in the next few years, the Russian economy would achieve positive growth, which would total 0.6 percent and 2.7 percent in 2016 and 2017, respectively. The Russian government was even more optimistic, saying that in the third and the fourth quarter of this year, Russia will be able to restore the previous rate of growth.

Compared with the pessimistic outlook at the end of last year and earlier this year, it is safe to say that Russia's recovery projections have improved, Renmin Ribao reported.

Despite the fact that the beginning of 2015 saw Russia's economy show signs of plummeting, in the second quarter of the year, the situation improved, the newspaper said, citing the slowing of the GDP's decline and the reduction in monthly inflation. The financial situation in Russia is now stable, despite the devaluation of the ruble, which remains a freely convertible currency; compared to the end of last year, it increased by almost a third. Russia has also successfully solved problems pertaining to its external debt, the newspaper said, adding that in addition to repaying 130 billion dollars in 2014, it has already paid off almost 60 billion dollars of foreign debt in the first quarter of this year.

Addressing factors which have added to Russia's economic recovery, the newspaper first pointed to a rebound in oil prices, which Renmin Ribao sad is a big plus for Russia, where oil remains part and parcel of the country's development. Secondly, the crisis in Ukraine, which prompted the United States and Europe to slap economic and financial sanctions against Russia, has yet to be tackled, but the situation has stabilized, which is contributing to the restoration of confidence in the Russian market.

More importantly, the Russian government continues to rely on the country' rich resources in order to pursue its policy of active financial intervention. In the beginning of 2015, the government developed an anti-crisis plan stipulating support for the banking system, major enterprises, small and medium businesses, the active promotion of import-substituting technologies, the optimization of budget expenditures, as well as maintaining the stability of the labor market and assistance to vulnerable social groups.

Many of these tasks have already been successfully resolved, the newspaper recalled, referring to Russia's food industry, where the production of meat and dairy products has increased by almost 13 percent and 3.6 percent, respectively, in the first four months of this year, the newspaper said.

Despite a chill in ties between the West and Russia, the country is not alone on the international stage, Renmin Ribao said, citing Russia's role in hosting the SCO and BRICS country summits, its decision to join the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the creation of new Bank of BRICS. Additionally, Russia held its 19th St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, which was attended by more than 2,000 people, including many foreign guests from the European and American multinational corporations, according to the newspaper.

It should be noted, however, that Russia's economy still has a very difficult path ahead, Renmin Ribao said, singling out the plummeting world oil prices, among other negative factors. The United States has, meanwhile, threatened to introduce more sanctions against Russia, while the EU has decided to extend its anti-Russian sanctions for six months.

These sanctions and the fight against the sanctions may lead to a "tug of war", which could reach a new level following the Ukrainian crisis, the newspaper concluded, saying that for such a big country as Russia, the path to recovery cannot be completely smooth and devoid of serious challenges.

Of course, it's the optimistic point of view, telling largely how well the russian economy will redress in the near future. But they don't deny that they had a contraction (the term used when the GDP plummet for a short time, while depression is used for a long period of decreasing GDP). Also we understand that the main problem they have to face is the plunging oil prices, which affect BTW every producer, especially nationalized. Also the sanctions are also a problem for them.

In short, they are not in a wonderful economic growth. Russia hope for a rebound in oil prices, and has to manage a way to get out of the sanctions before hoping to get in a better economic state.

[SeaGypsy]

Why? Because the western media has aligned itself with the ministry of propaganda just as much as any. Aligning itself with the Kiev regime is a recent example.

[Pops]

Thanks guys. We just don't act like that here. People shouldn't need to put a flame suit on to post a MSM article. I must not be going to the right threads if that response is common, I'll do better.

Here is the point:

Lukoil’s vice-president, Leonid Fedun, said in March that Russia’s oil output could fall 8pc by the end of next year, taking 800,000 barrels a day (b/d) out of global markets, with major implications for the balance of supply and demand.
Any such loss would be corrosive for Russia. It has not happened yet. Russian producers have taken advantage of a new tax regime to raise output this year to 10.7m b/d, close to the post-Soviet peak. But they are relying on legacy investments and imported machinery that must be replaced sooner or later.

[Tanada]

Thanks guys. We just don't act like that here. People shouldn't need to put a flame suit on to post a MSM article. I must not be going to the right threads if that response is common, I'll do better.

Here is the point:

Lukoil’s vice-president, Leonid Fedun, said in March that Russia’s oil output could fall 8pc by the end of next year, taking 800,000 barrels a day (b/d) out of global markets, with major implications for the balance of supply and demand.
Any such loss would be corrosive for Russia. It has not happened yet. Russian producers have taken advantage of a new tax regime to raise output this year to 10.7m b/d, close to the post-Soviet peak. But they are relying on legacy investments and imported machinery that must be replaced sooner or later.

Pops we do what we can, none of us has time to read every thread on this place and personally I lack the inclination as well. Do what you can and let other do what they can and things will turn out as they turn out.

That being said your cite above is much like earlier pronouncements in indicating Russia has passed its second major peak. Like everyone else they have no incentive to invest Billions to get back hundreds of Millions. Everyone wants the equation to be the other way around, invest a little get a lot.

If Russia is going to drop that fast and the LTO 'miracle' in North America is going to fall even further and faster then maybe just possibly the negotiations with Iran are based on that knowledge. Sadly I don't think our government is that far seeing, in the last decade the exports from Iran have been steadily falling despite very high oil prices giving a lot of incentive to produce more. ELM has been a constant reduction in their export volume, and I just don't see 60 year old oil fields suddenly doubling production because of the 'new' technologies touted in the media.

If Putin sticks to his guns and the world does not go into a world wide depression/recession/down turn then as Iranian crude reenters the official markets we will be lucky if it can replace the Russian and LTO declines later this year. I am a little surprised that the LTO declines are taking so long to manifest in the market but like most things a slow burn does more damage than a flash fire. Every day the mass media keeps hyping a massive surplus is another day of bad income for Russia, which some theories posit is the main reason KSA is pumping flat out under USA influence.

[Withnail]

Thanks guys. We just don't act like that here. People shouldn't need to put a flame suit on to post a MSM article. I must not be going to the right threads if that response is common, I'll do better.

I calmly pointed out some issues with the article. You later responded in a condescending and rude manner which set me off. America pisses me right off to start with so it doesn't take much. I'm on a short fuse these days with the stuff America does.

Your country is the one causing havoc and murder in my back yard. I'm not doing anything to America.

[StarvingLion]

"Like everyone else they have no incentive to invest Billions to get back hundreds of Millions."

Sure they do...its called "renewables".

[ennui2]

I calmly pointed out some issues with the article. You later responded in a condescending and rude manner which set me off. America pisses me right off to start with so it doesn't take much. I'm on a short fuse these days with the stuff America does.

You understand when you express anger towards America, it makes people who live in America feel like that anger extends to them, personally?

When you start talking about having a short fuse and this or that pisses you off, you start to project the character traits of someone who is likely to wind up acting on that anger, i.e. going postal in some form or another.

Could you see how maybe that might not win you a lot of friends on this board?

It's supremely hypocritical to impugn a country for being murderous hawks while also adopting the tone of someone who sounds like he'd like nothing else but to set off an IED himself.

If you really stand for peace, stop acting all holier than thou while being consumed with more anger than the americans you say you hate so much.

[Withnail]

It's supremely hypocritical to impugn a country for being murderous hawks while also adopting the tone of someone who sounds like he'd like nothing else but to set off an IED himself.

If you really stand for peace, stop acting all holier than thou while being consumed with more anger than the americans you say you hate so much.

It's pretty pathetic to insinuate that someone is a would-be terrorist because they expressed their opinion forthrightly, indeed angrily, on an internet message board really isn't it?

[dissident]

It's supremely hypocritical to impugn a country for being murderous hawks while also adopting the tone of someone who sounds like he'd like nothing else but to set off an IED himself.

If you really stand for peace, stop acting all holier than thou while being consumed with more anger than the americans you say you hate so much.

It's pretty pathetic to insinuate that someone is a would-be terrorist because they expressed their opinion forthrightly, indeed angrily, on an internet message board really isn't it?

Wow, he called you a terrorist for not being a knee-jerk MSM believer. If this isn't Orwellian "freedom of thought" then nothing is.

Of course, he hasn't made a single factual contribution to this thread and is just derailing it with ad hominem diversions.

BTW, some genius posted BS on the front page about Russian inflation going out of control:

http://www.inflation.eu/inflation-rates ... -2015.aspx



This is in the wake of the large ruble devaluation. There was a surge of inflation that petered out by late March of this year (returned to weekly rates that were there a year ago before the devaluation). This is yet another nail in the coffin of the two bit "Russian depression" theory pulled out of hack MSM "journalists'" collective a**es. If there was an unstable inflationary state, the large spike in the inflation late last year would have been amplified and propagated instead of damped to zero (when considered as a transient anomaly) over basically a three month period.

[ennui2]

It's pretty pathetic to insinuate that someone is a would-be terrorist because they expressed their opinion forthrightly, indeed angrily, on an internet message board really isn't it?

Not really. If more people read the tea leaves with the Tsarnaev brothers before they acted out, maybe the people who were killed in the Marathon bombings wouldn't have had to die. Radicalism and violence is an endpoint of a process that starts with rhetoric like this and so you seem to be on that train. If you want to prove otherwise, show me how you've got some constructive outlet for your frustration rather than letting us all know how damn angry you are and how powerless you feel.

Another thing that really pisses me off about you is that you overstate your case as to how the US is somehow making your life so miserable. It's really not. Your grievances are largely ideological and pretty far removed from your day-to-day existence. This also raises my alarm bells that you are teetering into some paranoid vicious cycle of feeling victimized by a force you can't control.

[Pops]

Come on, this isn't necessary. why don't you 2 put each other on ignore instead of subjecting us all to your little spitball contest?

[ennui2]

Done. There's nothing that shuts down a debate more than threatening the other person with bodily harm. If this site had more posters I can't imagine bickering like this would be tolerated.