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Russia-China Gas Deal, May 2014

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Re: Russia-China Gas Deal, May 2014

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 04 Nov 2014, 14:15:24

ROCKMAN wrote:Just a small side bar: Here's bit of NG that won't be heading to the EU just as that Russian NG won't:

Kinder Morgan announced that the fully subscribed Sierrita Pipeline has begun service. The 36-inch diameter pipeline provides approximately 200 million cubic feet per day (73 bcf/yr) of capacity and extends the existing lines to the Mexican border. The pipeline interconnects via a new international border crossing with a new natural gas pipeline in Mexico. It will help Mexico meet its environmental goals of converting existing fuel-oil-fired power generation plants to efficient, clean burning natural gas and provide natural gas for future power plants. The project was built with monies from the Mexican gov't as well as a few US companies.

If EU countries want LNG from the US they might consider in investing in our LNG infrastructure. As they say: Money talks and bullsh*t walks.


Will this free up Mexican fuel oil for use as diesel fuel exports?
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Re: Russia-China Gas Deal, May 2014

Unread postby AgentR11 » Fri 07 Nov 2014, 19:12:33

Recent articles on the Western side pipeline to China indicate things are starting to happen. China is getting its way to a large extent, though its making sure the appropriate parties in Russia will be well compensated for their service to the Center of the World. China will be involved in construction of the pipeline, Russia will assist with funding refinery project in China, China corps get substantial ownership stakes in the appropriate fields.

These are changes that can not be easily undone if sanctions are lifted. Russia's oil, gas, and coal, and electricity generated by that coal will shortly be devoted to China. That can't do anything but also open the door to massive agribusiness pushing into Eastern Russia from China as well; you only have to google-fly the Russia China border in the East to see massive ag on one side, and undeveloped squalor a stone's throw away; you can see the $$ in the eyeballs of the Chinese business guys from the satellite.

We really did sell Russia to China on the cheap. Hope that was intended policy, because its done.
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Re: Russia-China Gas Deal, May 2014

Unread postby toolpush » Fri 07 Nov 2014, 23:57:31

ROCKMAN wrote:Just a small side bar: Here's bit of NG that won't be heading to the EU just as that Russian NG won't:

Kinder Morgan announced that the fully subscribed Sierrita Pipeline has begun service. The 36-inch diameter pipeline provides approximately 200 million cubic feet per day (73 bcf/yr) of capacity and extends the existing lines to the Mexican border. The pipeline interconnects via a new international border crossing with a new natural gas pipeline in Mexico. It will help Mexico meet its environmental goals of converting existing fuel-oil-fired power generation plants to efficient, clean burning natural gas and provide natural gas for future power plants. The project was built with monies from the Mexican gov't as well as a few US companies.

If EU countries want LNG from the US they might consider in investing in our LNG infrastructure. As they say: Money talks and bullsh*t walks.



Rockman,

Help me out here. 200mmcf/d through a 36" line??? What at 2psi. I have drilled wells that produced 350mmcf/d, through 9 5/8 tubing at less than 3000psi. Something is wrong with their numbers.
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Re: Russia-China Gas Deal, May 2014

Unread postby sparky » Sun 09 Nov 2014, 11:03:49

.
Today at the APEC meeting Russia and China announced a second pipeline agreement
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Re: Russia-China Gas Deal, May 2014

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 09 Nov 2014, 11:17:12

sparky wrote:.
Today at the APEC meeting Russia and China announced a second pipeline agreement

Any details?
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Re: Russia-China Gas Deal, May 2014

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 09 Nov 2014, 11:28:43

Pusher - Couldn't fine the line pressure but I suspect low...a few hundreds psi. But I did find a note on their web site that capacity will increase to 800 mmcfpd after the final compression is installed.
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Re: Russia-China Gas Deal, May 2014

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 09 Nov 2014, 12:05:03

Sub - Folks have a very incorrect picture of Mexico's energy situation because they are a significant source of OIL EXPORTS to the US. Recently Mexico became a net petroleum importer from the US for the first time in 40 years. They may export half a million bopd but they import everything else including motored fuels. Mexico doesn't export oil because they produce so much...they don't. They export it because they lack refining capacity. During just the first quarter of 2014 Mexico posted a $550 million petroleum deficit with the US according to the Bank of Mexico data. One can only speculate how different the story might be today had their gov't allowed foreign oil/NG operators in decades ago. As they say: Be careful what you wish for...you might get it. The Mexican public got what they've demanded for many decades: sole control of their domestic petroleum reserves. Sole control and sole responsibility. Today they sleep in the bed they made.

Mexico is far from being petroleum independent. Probably news to the vast majority of the American public. BTW Mexico also has a huge trade deficit with China. There's a good reason so many of those folks risk their lives getting across the border to the US.
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Re: Russia-China Gas Deal, May 2014

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 09 Nov 2014, 12:06:17

Subjectivist wrote:
sparky wrote:.
Today at the APEC meeting Russia and China announced a second pipeline agreement

Any details?


Well the second line runs to Altai through central Russia, the funny little border segment on China's Northwest corner; completed it would provide direct competition for the gas that Europe currently buys from Russia. My thinking is that Europe needs to get on the ball and find a way to be independent of Russian gas before Russia ends up being independent of European customers. Its very asymmetrical, If Europe walks away before Moscow can sell their production to China, Moscow loses some money and won't be able to buy as many BMWs. If Moscow walks away from European customers before they can substitute, it could become a severe disruption.

My suggestion is that Europe should build a bunch of LNG import terminals on their side, and fund LNG terminals here, and then offer to buy our NG at a markup from what they pay the Russians, and they pay the cost of the transit. Go EU!!! Our gas burns better! Freedom Power!
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Re: Russia-China Gas Deal, May 2014

Unread postby toolpush » Sun 09 Nov 2014, 21:26:46

ROCKMAN wrote:Pusher - Couldn't fine the line pressure but I suspect low...a few hundreds psi. But I did find a note on their web site that capacity will increase to 800 mmcfpd after the final compression is installed.



Thanks Rockman,

I had originally though it was a miss print, as 200mmcf/d seemed very low. But with the extra compressors in operation, brings the flow rate up to something I would have expected.
The US may not be a Nat gas net exporter yet, but the are working on it. lol

Back to the topic of this post, China certainly seems to trying to test the nat gas supply capabilities of Russia. The question is, can Russia supply China and Europe at the same time? It will be an interesting test of Russia's often quote huge gas reserves.
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Re: Russia-China Gas Deal, May 2014

Unread postby sparky » Mon 10 Nov 2014, 23:56:39

.
@ subjectivist , here are some juice on the deal
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/11/busin ... .html?_r=0

and the words from the horse mouth
http://www.gazprom.com/press/news/2014/ ... cle205898/

"North stream" is connected directly to Germany , "South stream" is a project to feed southern Europe and is the subject of a mighty battle with the EU commission , " East stream " is the previous project to feed China from Eastern Siberia
this one is to be called "west stream " and would be fed from western Siberia and the central Asia "Stans"
"West stream" would suck dry the life of the near moribund Nabucco project .
China appetite for gas is inexhaustible , it would feed their inland , which has massive energy supply problems
and it doesn't take a genius to work out Beijing would set up massive strategic gas storage
thus lessening their very serious sea borne security of supplies problem
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Re: Russia-China Gas Deal, May 2014

Unread postby dissident » Tue 11 Nov 2014, 11:07:28

sparky wrote:.
@ subjectivist , here are some juice on the deal
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/11/busin ... .html?_r=0


The author of this piece is a retard. Natural gas sales to China have nothing to do with crude oil prices. Gazprom is not "swooning".

and the words from the horse mouth
http://www.gazprom.com/press/news/2014/ ... cle205898/

"North stream" is connected directly to Germany , "South stream" is a project to feed southern Europe and is the subject of a mighty battle with the EU commission , " East stream " is the previous project to feed China from Eastern Siberia
this one is to be called "west stream " and would be fed from western Siberia and the central Asia "Stans"
"West stream" would suck dry the life of the near moribund Nabucco project .
China appetite for gas is inexhaustible , it would feed their inland , which has massive energy supply problems
and it doesn't take a genius to work out Beijing would set up massive strategic gas storage
thus lessening their very serious sea borne security of supplies problem


Just as there are monopoly producers there are monopoly consumers. Russia is too dependent on a single customer and a hostile one at that. These pipelines will take a few years to build but they will be operational by 2018. Meanwhile the Russia hating EU is busy pulling tantrums like the attempts to block South Stream. Maybe the Brussels bureautards can gouge out their eyes too since that will obviously hurt Russia and not themselves.
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Re: Russia-China Gas Deal, May 2014

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sat 09 May 2015, 00:15:45

Agreements cement relationship with Russia
China Daily/Asia News NetworkSaturday, May 09, 2015
President Xi Jinping and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Friday cemented the partnership of the two powers, boosting political and economic ties with the signing of more than 30 documents.

Joint statements issued after two and a half hours of talks between the leaders said they agreed to prioritize the connection between China's Silk Road Economic Belt initiative and Russia's trans-Eurasia continent strategies.

Agreements cement relationship with Russia

Russia and China signed a pact in which Russia has preliminarily agreed to deliver natural gas through a western route in addition to the eastern route, which will make China the biggest consumer of Russian gas when delivery starts. In May of last year, the countries signed a $400 billion gas deal.

Xi and Putin also witnessed the signing of documents including co-operation on corporate financing, exchanges of aerospace observation data, avoiding double taxation, production capacity as well as high-speed rail.

Xi told a news conference following his talks with Putin that the countries will expand opening up to each other, link their development strategies and deepen integration.

"This is helpful to boosting the economic integration of Eurasia, expanding the shared economic space and better facilitating the development of China and Russia, as well as regional countries," Xi said.

Putin spoke highly of the healthy development of ties and noted the achievements from exchanges and co-operation in various fields.

Sun Zhuangzhi, a researcher of Russian and Central Asian studies with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said collaboration in connectivity strategies "will give a boost not only to bilateral trade but also efforts in shaping a huge market that covers all of Eurasia".

Sun said that Russia, a major oil exporter, has suffered greatly from an economic downturn and the stability of its currency market, and that the adjustment in its economic structure "depends on whether it will expand economic co-operation with foreign countries".

Lin Boqiang, director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research with Xiamen University, said China might be the only country with enough financial power and a big enough market to be a stable buyer of Russia's energy resources in the long run.

The summit came one day ahead of a parade marking the 70th anniversary of victory in the Great Patriotic War, Russia's term for World War II.

Earlier on Friday, Xi was given a grand welcome in the airport and was then whisked away to the Kremlin for a meeting with Putin, whom Xi has met 10 times over the past two years.

Xi also was expected to meet with Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, as well as Russian World War II veterans and representatives of Russian experts who once worked in China.

Xi noted that China and Russia, as the main Asian and European battlefields in World War II, will host events to mark the 70th anniversary of the war.

Both nations hope to "remind people around the world of the hard-won peace" and the determination to avert wartime tragedy from reoccurring, Xi said.
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Re: Russia-China Gas Deal, May 2014

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 10 May 2015, 02:19:16

Hydroelectric development of Bureya river to export electricity from Russia to China. (from People's Daily - China) It won't take them long now to realize what a sweet deal burning the coal in the Russian far East and using the electricity in China's West is. These are infrastructure commitments that last decades; they are durable, and bind future iterations of leadership in both countries. Our stupidity has created a single, future, real rival, where two incomplete, inadequate economies used to exist. Solved the existential strategic question of China for them, just so some twits in Galatia can pretend to be Nazis with power for a little while.. least till they starve I guess.
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Re: Russia-China Gas Deal, May 2014

Unread postby sparky » Sun 10 May 2015, 05:45:01

.
The way I look at it , it's all natural laws at work ,
Europe used to be the big cheese , all the world resources flowed unto it .
all the world manufactured goods flowed from it
America got into its stride , mightily helped by Europe committing economic suicide TWICE
now Europe is shriveling , most of it are dead beats holding a begging bowl to Germany
Europe military is run by the Pentagon , it's economy a sub set of Wall Street

China went from being a country where having a bowl of rice a day was putting you in the middle class
to an industrial power equal to the greatest , at first it was just churning cheap rubbish , now when you hold an I-pad or watch TV you are listening and watching China , their hunger for raw material saw them buy whole countries across three continents , the once proud European leaders kowtow in Beijing upon their greatness

It's military is improving so fast it is difficult to assess it's capability but a rough reckoning is that only the utmost effort military and financial from the US would curb its pride ,
which is hard to contemplate as they are one of the largest lender to its treasury
So Russia , urinated on by the EU is turning toward the greatest explosion of wealth and value of the century
what a surprise , I would have guessed it would have happened anyway ,
the EU just made sure it happened sooner and at a much better price for the Chinese
what a bunch of geniuses !!!!
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Re: Russia-China Gas Deal, May 2014

Unread postby Ulenspiegel » Sun 10 May 2015, 08:51:58

@sparky,

is so a nonsense the best you can produce? Poor guy.
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Re: Russia-China Gas Deal, May 2014

Unread postby sparky » Sun 10 May 2015, 09:41:05

.
Is "so" a non answer the best you can come up with ,whoever you are !

china is the future , Europe is a zone over-flooding with its colonial sins
coming back in their thousand to repopulate it
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Re: Russia-China Gas Deal, May 2014

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 10 May 2015, 09:48:26

Ulenspiegel wrote:@sparky,
is so a nonsense the best you can produce? Poor guy.


Perhaps you could add a rebuttal to his remarks; they are rather contorted, but there is material there. Instead you resort to a pair of insults. That seems par for the course these days from our side; just hate, insults, blood lust, and screaming.

I'd rebut his comments by noting that the world is not a "you must be top or you are nothing". EE, the US, and now Russia+China are each economically massive combinations; largely able to sustain themselves with or without the other. Europe has a temporary, modest energy vulnerability, but its not huge or dangerous. Russia+China are at the beginning of their dance, so have plenty of issues to work out, but the dance is underway and will not be interrupted. We in the US look vulnerable to import reliance, but its import reliance only in the sense that we are extravagant in our use of oil for personal transportation; cut that back via tax, or market response to shortage, and we are easily self sufficient.

Just because the US became a massive industrial power; Europe did not stop. Same is true now, Russia+China are a massive industrial power; but becoming such won't make the EU less, nor make the US less. We'll continue to have some spats over poorly laid borders, some peacefully resolvable like Kazahkstan/Russia (contorted border line for no visible, rational reason, in the middle of nowhere; takes time to do fairly, but they proceed apace); some not so peacefully, like the Ukraine/Russia border that seems about to become a Galatia/Novorussia/Russia border. But all three consolidated powers will do fine for the time being; more people will experience middle class comforts than ever; more people will be worried about their kids ballet lesson than their kids bowl of rice.

In context of this forum though... It represents the drawing up of the lines for the time when resources really do come up short. Will we go to war with Russia off its Arctic coast to take oil fields? Will we come to blows over that region of the arctic in the middle where existing treaty law doesn't assign, but is very much within the technical capabilities to develop once the ice is gone?

Its kinda why our playbook with Russia was so bad; apart, China and Russia really couldn't have challenged the EU or US in the arctic; we'd get our way, one way or the other. Together though, they are sufficient to make the challenge. And this time around, they won't play using our playbook; they'll be using one that is suitable to their own strengths.
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Re: Russia-China Gas Deal, May 2014

Unread postby dissident » Sun 10 May 2015, 11:47:07

NATO has no existing capability to impose anything on Russia in the Arctic. Zero. It can send a fleet to wave its dick around, but Russia has a fleet of its own that is able to sink the NATO fleet before it can do anything.

No, the best NATO can do is send Greenpeace and other "NGO" proxies to engage in propaganda theater on Russian oil and gas platforms. NATO's self image is grossly distorted and has no correspondence to reality.

You say the EU's energy problems are temporary. Really? How did you infer that? Are they going to run on US LNG soon? Will they reverse their decision to reduce nuclear power (this is not just a German thing, France is following the same path). US LNG is a myth. The US can't have its fracked gas cake and eat it too. I will take Art Berman's estimates of the reserves over any of the vapid propaganda pieces I see originating from the US MSM. Supposedly Qatar has the capacity to supply the EU. But for some reason the EU is f*cking around with Russia instead of building LNG terminals to receive this gush of Qatari LNG. That tells me all I need to know.
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Re: Russia-China Gas Deal, May 2014

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Sun 10 May 2015, 12:30:00

sparky wrote:.
The way I look at it , it's all natural laws at work ,
Europe used to be the big cheese , all the world resources flowed unto it .
all the world manufactured goods flowed from it

The way I look at it, dominant economic/military regimes grow in places that have the right combination of resources (ag, minerals, energy). At some point they run out of non-renewables and/or exceed the capacity (or degrade) renewables. To keep going they need to secure supplies from elsewhere, through trade agreements and/or imperialism
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Re: Russia-China Gas Deal, May 2014

Unread postby AgentR11 » Sun 10 May 2015, 14:23:06

First mandatory raspberry:

NATO >>>> ALL!!! Kneel before Zod you Russian pests. WOOOOOOOOOT WOOOOOOOOT WOOOOOOOOOT!

Ok, that out of the way.. LOL!!!

dissident wrote:You say the EU's energy problems are temporary. Really? How did you infer that? Are they going to run on US LNG soon?


Well, obviously they are going to keep buying Russian gas through North Stream, will dilly around for a while, and then take delivery of gas via Turkey and Greece. Gazprom seems to want out of what the Europeans think of as objectionable anyway (ownership of both delivery means and content inside Europe). I think EU was hoping to use Gazprom's current dependence on a sole customer to then grind out their margin via transport fees; but if Gazprom can choose to sell any particular batch to China instead, or LNG it, or burn it domestically, then Gazprom can sell to Europe at the border or refuse the sale if they think the price is too low, taking into account the baggage that associating with Europeans creates.

Russia's always been a reliable provider of gas when paid, I don't see any reason why that would change.

As to the other grumpy rant The answer is obvious. If they build a ton of coal burning plants in Ukraine, and buy electricity from Ukraine, EU can claim to be low emission, get cheap electricity, and reduce dependence on natural gas.

addenda: You know something else Russia might do, as kinda a safety on the switchover, is if they preemptively dedicated a bit of LNG capacity to ship to Europe immediately before the shutdown of the UA transit line. That plus North Stream might be sufficient to prevent anything overly unpleasant. I really don't think Russia's trying to be a pain on this; its just that UA transit has caused them so much trauma over so many years, its just not worth continuing to support.
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