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Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 19 Feb 2018, 07:57:14

Cid makes strong arguments. Not a happy thread. Such is life.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby GHung » Mon 19 Feb 2018, 09:42:31

I've been wondering how much these craters create their own feedbacks. More surface area and more sub-surface frozen methane and substrates exposed to higher temperatures from both air and water.

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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby vox_mundi » Tue 20 Feb 2018, 11:29:25

Image

Warm Weather Drives Bears Out of Hibernation

... Lone bears and females with yearlings typically emerge from hibernation first. That’s usually in early March in Utah. Females with young cubs typically follow by the end of March. Both groups of bears emerged about a month early this year.

It’s hard to tell if the early awakenings will have a long-term effect on the health of the region’s bears, says Leslie McFarlane, Utah's mammals program coordinator. In addition to a wide range of plants, bears also eat insects, which are in short supply in the winter and early spring.

They can catch larger animals or find acorns, but overall the availability of food has been low, says McFarlane.

Bears carry fat reserves for lean times, but drawing on them too much can make them weaker and more susceptible to illness. And bears that have been out looking for food earlier are probably more likely to come into contact with people.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Tue 20 Feb 2018, 18:49:47

Polar stratospheric clouds: A high latitude warming mechanism in an ancient greenhouse world
The formation of Type II PSCs may be linked to tropospheric methane concentrations because oxidation of methane in the troposphere is a significant source of stratospheric water vapor (Lelieveld et al., 1993). Methane oxidizes to water vapor in the troposphere, and current observations suggest that approximately 10% of that water vapor diffuses to the stratosphere (Lelieveld et al., 1993).

Increased tropospheric methane concentrations may have led to greater amounts of stratospheric water vapor, creating greater areal extents of PSCs, and/or higher emissitivity values of the clouds during the Eocene.

The PSC mechanism is a very appealing explanation for high latitude warming in a greenhouse world for several reasons.

First, PSCs produce a greater magnitude of high latitude warming than any other climate forcing factor tested to date. Second, the warming is concentrated at high latitudes, and tropical temperatures are not affected. Third the warming is preferential in the winter season, corresponding more closely to proxy records of high latitude Eocene temperature (se .g., Zachose t al., 1994; Greenwood and Wing, 1995). Fourth, the mechanism of PSC warming is clearly defined, unlike other hypotheses for high-latitude warming (e.g., poleward oceanic heat transport (Sloan et al, 1995)). Lastly, a positive feedback mechanism amplifies the warming, through the connection between tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling. As the troposphere warms in a greenhouse world, the corresponding increased cooling of the stratosphere could lead to larger areas with temperatures below ~ -190 K, leading to more extensive PSCs (Shine, 1988; Austin et al., 1992). This feedback makes PSCs an even more plausible explanation for high latitude warming during times of warm climate and high greenhouse gas concentrations, such as the middle Cretaceous (e .g., Huber et al., 1995), provided that atmospheric methane exists in sufficient concentrations.

The methane source for the PSCs originally was hypothesized to have been the greater area of wetlands that existed in the ancient greenhouse world (Sloan et al., 1992). Recent work has suggested that the release of methane clathrates to the atmosphere could provide another source of methane at times (Dickens et al., 1997; Bralower et al., 1997). Latest Paleocene marine and isotopic records suggest that an extreme warm "event" occurred, lasting less than 500,000 years and concentrated at high latitudes (Bralower et al., 1997).
Dickens et al. (1997) and Bralower et al. (1997) have suggested that the catastrophic release of methane clathrates could explain the latest Paleocene warming, via tropospheric greenhouse effects.

Not only would the clathrate-released methane have provided more of a source for PSCs, but a pulse of methane also might have increased either the residence time (Lelieveld et al., 1993; Lelieveld and Crutzen, 1992) and/or the amount of methane that diffused to the stratosphere to create PSCs. If so, extensive PSCs might have been an important climate modifier during such methanogenic "events".

Therefore we conclude that PSCs may have been an important climatic forcing factor during past warm climates, and that considering only the tropospheric effects of methane upon climate in paleoclimate studies omits significant mechanisms for potential modification of surface temperatures.

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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Whitefang » Wed 28 Feb 2018, 10:41:51

Abstract from that Santa Cruz study:

Abstract. The presence of water vapor clouds in the
stratosphere produces warming in excess of tropospheric
greenhouse warming, via radiative warming in the lower
stratosphere. The stratospheric clouds form only in regions of
very low temperature and so the warming produced by the
clouds is concentrated in polar winter regions. Results from a
paleoclimate modeling study that includes idealized,
prescribed polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) show that the
clouds cause up to 20øC of warming at high latitude surfaces
of the winter hemisphere, with greatest impact in oceanic re-
gions where sea ice is reduced. The modeled temperature re-
sponse suggests that PSCs may have been a significant cli-
mate forcing factor for past time intervals associated with high
concentrations of atmospheric methane. The clouds and
associated warming may help to explain long-standing
discrepancies between model-produced paleotemperatures and
geologic proxy temperature interpretations at high latitudes, a
persistent problem in studies of ancient greenhouse climates.


A whopping 20 degrees Celcius on winter hemisphere surface!!!
Goodbye GIS. Heinrich event here we come.

https://chemtrailsplanet.files.wordpres ... hanism.pdf
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby kiwichick » Thu 01 Mar 2018, 17:31:57

could these clouds form over the Antarctic as well ?
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Down under

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 02 Mar 2018, 15:59:33

kiwichick wrote:could these clouds form over the Antarctic as well ?


yup, they do, no reason why down under would be spared, physics works down there the way it works up here I guess.
Lemmyback it up with proof......

More fun with models, but clearly on both hemispheres:

https://www.seas.harvard.edu/climate/el ... e/psc.html

In addition, this study only investigated the influence of PSCs on the climate and did not examine the effects of high greenhouse gas levels and PSCs together. Therefore, Peters and Sloan in 2000 presented another paper that investigated the impact of large amounts of greenhouse gases combined with PSCs. In this study, they performed two model experiments, just as Sloan and Pollard did. Both scenarios had carbon dioxide levels set at 560 ppm, which is 2 times the preindustrial level. The first situation, ECONTROL, had an atmospheric methane concentration of 0.700 ppm, the preindustrial amount, and did not have any PSCs. In the second case, named PCLOUD, methane levels were 10 ppm, which is 14 times the amount of preindustrial levels, and PSCs were prescribed as in the Sloan and Pollard study. The results showed a globally averaged mean annual temperature (MAT) increase of 3.4°C, and MATs in PCLOUD were warmer than ECONTROL by 12°C in the Northern Hemisphere and by 9°C in the Southern Hemisphere. However, in the Tropics, the MATs of PCLOUD was only warmer than that of ECONTROL by 2°C. Additionally, the cold-month mean temperature increased by 25°C in the Northern Hemisphere and by 18°C in the Southern Hemisphere. As a result, the study shows that the combined effects of PSCs and higher levels of greenhouse gases could raise polar temperatures while not affecting the Tropics substantially. Specifically, it reveals the impact of more methane and more PSCs on the climate and demonstrates that these two factors could have caused equable climate
s.

http://www.antarctica.gov.au/about-anta ... ric-clouds

pics are proof!


Polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs) play a central role in the formation of the ozone hole in the Antarctic and Arctic. PSCs provide surfaces upon which heterogeneous chemical reactions take place. These reactions lead to the production of free radicals of chlorine in the stratosphere which directly destroy ozone molecules.

PSCs form poleward of about 60°S latitude in the altitude range 10 km to 25 km during the winter and early spring. The clouds are classified into Types I and II according to their particle size and formation temperature.

Type II clouds, also known as nacreous or mother-of-pearl clouds, are composed of ice crystals and form when temperatures are below the ice frost point (typically below −83°C).

The Type I PSCs are optically much thinner than the Type II clouds, and have a formation threshold temperature 5 to 8°C above the frost point. These clouds consist mainly of hydrated droplets of nitric acid and sulphuric acid.

Despite two decades of research, the climatology of PSCs is not well described, and this impacts on the accuracy of ozone depletion models. The timing and duration of PSC events, their geographic extent and vertical distributions, and their annual variability are not well understood. The Davis LIDAR has been used to study stratospheric clouds since 2001. The observations consist of profiles of Rayleigh laser backscatter at a wavelength of 532 nm as a function of altitude. The measurements are being used to investigate the climatology of the clouds and their relation to the temperature structure of the stratosphere, and the influence of atmospheric gravity waves and planetary waves in modulating their structure and ozone depletion.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sat 03 Mar 2018, 03:40:18

What we are seeing is the atmosphere seeking an equalization of the temperature gradient between equator and poles. Simple physics.

With the barrier of the jet stream broken in the Arctic, the movement of heat towards the poles has accelerated. This movement has pushed the cold out and to lower latitudes. Soon there will be little cold to push out. But until then, expect highly energetic weather systems in the mid latitudes.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 03 Mar 2018, 05:37:16

Good explanation Cid.

You post the same at the Strange Weather thread. Its the mechanisimnthatndrives this crazy weather.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby jedrider » Sat 03 Mar 2018, 11:26:29

Phase transition perhaps? Between one stable state to another, but a wild ride in between.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby kiwichick » Sat 03 Mar 2018, 15:31:49

Thanks for that Whitefang.............so if we assume 18 degrees C mean annual temp. rise over Antarctica....we will definitely see significant melting during the summer months
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 04 Mar 2018, 14:42:36

dissident wrote:A 75 m rise would take centuries to develop. This is thanks to the strong ice albedo-induced hysteresis effect. But 2 meters by 2100 is looking like an optimistic (or deluded) estimate and Hanson's estimate of 7 meters is very plausible. Humanity will be in a world of hurt from various warming-associated problems by 2050.

Which reminds me of the question I keep asking. How bad do things have to get before a critical mass of people realize CC is REAL, and needs to be a top priority?

One would think lots of coastal cities, including in the US, having to build major infrastructure projects and/or abandon part of the shoreline altogether would wake up even many deniers.

Just the government and insurance cost impacts alone should prove painful to the average person, since the Beltway will, of course, want to spread around the cost/pain to buy votes.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Mass panic prevention

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 04 Mar 2018, 15:17:14

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
dissident wrote:Which reminds me of the question I keep asking. How bad do things have to get before a critical mass of people realize CC is REAL, and needs to be a top priority?


Maybe 3 or 4 decades ago when we humans could still slow the process of abrupt CC, now that we are speeding up the best is to leave people in the dark, most of humanity does not want to know they are going to die anyway. Most do not want to know what is in the cards so to speak.
I am a prepper, I want to know what is coming at us.

If people would know, they would panic, economy/trust, would collapse......BAU would end, instantly.
That is why our management, NATO/IMF are doing the right thing at this moment, preventing he public to know our true state, our predicament.
The less people know the better.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=camI8yuoy8U

The Road......
Once the target of numerous on again, off again, release date changes, The Road looks to finally be getting an actual release date. Featuring a spectacular cast, including Viggo Mortensen, Guy Pierce and Charlize Theron, it may have been a long time coming, but will it be worth the wait?

Father and son are off in search of civilization in this post-apocalyptic thriller, and what they find along their road will be anything but after an unknown catastrophe reduces America, and possibly the world, to a cannibalistic barbarism. Will they find what they're looking for? Or will they be victims of the road?
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Re: Mass panic prevention

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 04 Mar 2018, 16:26:48

Whitefang wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
dissident wrote:Which reminds me of the question I keep asking. How bad do things have to get before a critical mass of people realize CC is REAL, and needs to be a top priority?


Maybe 3 or 4 decades ago when we humans could still slow the process of abrupt CC, now that we are speeding up the best is to leave people in the dark, most of humanity does not want to know they are going to die anyway. Most do not want to know what is in the cards so to speak.
I am a prepper, I want to know what is coming at us.

If people would know, they would panic, economy/trust, would collapse......BAU would end, instantly.
That is why our management, NATO/IMF are doing the right thing at this moment, preventing he public to know our true state, our predicament.
The less people know the better.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=camI8yuoy8U

The Road......
Once the target of numerous on again, off again, release date changes, The Road looks to finally be getting an actual release date. Featuring a spectacular cast, including Viggo Mortensen, Guy Pierce and Charlize Theron, it may have been a long time coming, but will it be worth the wait?

Father and son are off in search of civilization in this post-apocalyptic thriller, and what they find along their road will be anything but after an unknown catastrophe reduces America, and possibly the world, to a cannibalistic barbarism. Will they find what they're looking for? Or will they be victims of the road?

All these Mad Max , The road, themes have a great hole in their thinking. If civilization has collapsed in the USA and Europe there will be no pockets of civilization left out there to find and certainly not at a great distance from the coastal cities. If collapse happens the survivors will have to pick up the pieces right where they are and try to make do with what is close at hand. Cuba's ability to keep a '55 Chevy running will become the guidebook to survival.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Sun 04 Mar 2018, 17:25:00

Newfie wrote:Cid makes strong arguments. Not a happy thread. Such is life.

cid is a halfwit who has been allowed to ignore forum rules for the last 10 years.

3.1.3 Unnecessary text quotation: If you wish to quote a post or article, do not quote the entire post/article. Only include the part of the post text to which you are responding. With articles, post a short paragraph and provide a link.

Why mods refuse to lift a finger against this violater despite literally thousands of violations of rule 3.1.3. ?
also
> Only include the part of the post text to which you are responding.
> responding

you are only supposed to quote text if you intend to respond to it. Cid rarely responds to his copypasta. And if he does, its usually a sound byte alluding to imminent doom : "we are sooooooo f*****d". He's too important to have to write anything of substance- actually using a discussion forum to discuss things is beneath him. The weird thing is - he gets away with this double violation of 3.1.3.
So the staff here have got 2 things to explain
why has cid been allowed to violate 3.1.3?
why have the staff not given members due reason for allowing cid this special exemption?
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby chilyb » Mon 05 Mar 2018, 09:33:40

Dear peakoilwhen,

peakoilwhen wrote:
Newfie wrote:Cid makes strong arguments. Not a happy thread. Such is life.

cid is a halfwit who has been allowed to ignore forum rules for the last 10 years.

3.1.3 Unnecessary text quotation: If you wish to quote a post or article, do not quote the entire post/article. Only include the part of the post text to which you are responding. With articles, post a short paragraph and provide a link.

Why mods refuse to lift a finger against this violater despite literally thousands of violations of rule 3.1.3. ?
also
> Only include the part of the post text to which you are responding.
> responding

you are only supposed to quote text if you intend to respond to it. Cid rarely responds to his copypasta. And if he does, its usually a sound byte alluding to imminent doom : "we are sooooooo f*****d". He's too important to have to write anything of substance- actually using a discussion forum to discuss things is beneath him. The weird thing is - he gets away with this double violation of 3.1.3.
So the staff here have got 2 things to explain
why has cid been allowed to violate 3.1.3?
why have the staff not given members due reason for allowing cid this special exemption?


I look forward to the moderators response to this! LOL!
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 05 Mar 2018, 11:04:03

Indeed!

Chill with the name calling.

Cid, do not be provoked.

Nuff said.
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forum pollution

Unread postby Whitefang » Mon 05 Mar 2018, 15:00:55

pow pow,

Classic meaningless ad hominum idiocy, attack the Messenger.......

If you have something to say, stay on topic, what is your view on runaway warming?

Do not worry about copy/paste, that is a waste of time.

Anyway let us have fun with you pow pow.
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Re: forum pollution

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 05 Mar 2018, 15:29:17

Whitefang wrote:pow pow,

Classic meaningless ad hominum idiocy, attack the Messenger.......

If you have something to say, stay on topic, what is your view on runaway warming?

Do not worry about copy/paste, that is a waste of time.

Anyway let us have fun with you pow pow.

Yes, we would all be interested in hearing your views on AGW given how zealously and passionately you trout out your belief in abiotic oil
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Mon 05 Mar 2018, 20:55:04

Martin Stendel, lead scientist of the Polar Portal and a senior researcher at the Danish Meteorological Institute, said temperatures in the central Arctic have been 4C warmer than average this winter. In February, several regions were 10C above historic norms. Despite fluctuations, he expects this trend to continue.

The Danish media joked that residents should visit the Arctic special forces base at Daneborg because it is warmer there.

The Information newspaper interviewed a member of the Sirius Dog Sled Patrol at the base – one of the most northern permanent outposts of humanity – who said the high temperature had turned snow into slush and made sledding heavy.

One member of the Arctic Patrol described the effect as surreal. “Outside, the dogs lie on their backs boiling and we dance around in our underwear enjoying it.”

link


Please send them some shorts. We don't want them dancing around in their underwear. :lol:
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