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Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 01 Jan 2017, 22:13:33

ralfy wrote:The point to consider is not timing but extent of damage across several generations.

That would assume we have several generations yet to be born. There is no guarantee of that.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 01 Jan 2017, 22:22:21

So runaway global warming might happen across generations? So it has not arrived, as per this thread. Anyone care to predict which generation?

Perhaps Tanada might starts pt 14, and you all can get back to the serious, immediate business of worrying about our soon-to-arrive DOOM!
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 01 Jan 2017, 22:53:50

pstarr wrote:So runaway global warming might happen across generations? So it has not arrived, as per this thread. Anyone care to predict which generation?

Perhaps Tanada might starts pt 14, and you all can get back to the serious, immediate business of worrying about our soon-to-arrive DOOM!

I must confess to not being able to remember every detail of every thread I have ever read here on Peak Oil ,so could you be so kind to remind us all, what Doom you think will arrive first and how soon you think it will get here?
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby kiwichick » Mon 02 Jan 2017, 01:45:41

@ pstarr.....good luck with your yoga or religion......have a nice life
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby kiwichick » Mon 02 Jan 2017, 01:52:43

global warming is already accelerating


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8xdOTyGQOso
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 02 Jan 2017, 09:42:51

onlooker wrote:
Tanada wrote:Fast crash doomers be they peak resources, climate, social unrest, economy all suffer from the same short range vision problem. They always and forever predict DOOM is just around the corner and when DOOM fails to appear at anything like the scale they predicted they then try and cast any tragedy as being a much greater DOOM than it actually was. look back at the coverage of Katrina/New Orleans. Look back at the coverage of Mocando/Deep Water Horizon. Look back at the Japanese Tsunami/Fukushima. What they don't get is like the boys who cried wolf over and over and over when no mega scale doom happens people dismiss them as a bunch of cranks and they end up hurting the Peak oil and Peak Resources and Climate and pick your problem by preventing Joe6P from taking their solutions seriously.

To a certain degree you have a point Tanada, especially with regards to timing. However, I must dispute the call on the severity issue. While certainly some have predicted catastrophic things to have already have happened, others here on this site are pointing out the trajectory that points to Catastrophe at the end of the road. I cannot really speak for others, so I will speak about myself. In the economic/peak oil topic, I was not even around in the false alarm times of 2005 or so. I am now saying that the contributions of the Etp model are valuable and should be heeded and thus the conclusions those in that specialization have reached. As for climate and the rest of the environmental concerns, I have been pretty consistent in that I have pointed out repeatedly that we are in the process of degrading and dismantling our natural life support systems with the kind of activities we as modern humans engage in and because of our immense numbers. I am not sure about timing and I have never cited a date or dates. I have voiced a certain support for Cid Yama and his shocking conclusions based on reading his well referenced argument about the ESAS and the escape of the methane from that area as being potentially catastrophic. Well, that potential does seem nearer because of the anomalies we are now witnessing going on in the Arctic. So all in all while yes some boy crying wolf has occurred, the opposite in still more prevalent. That opposite being authorities and media not giving the true comprehensive account of the nature of our predicament and a populace meandering between ignorance, apathy and outright chosen denial.


Onlooker this meme is popular on Facebook these days and is the prime example of what I am talking about. Joe6P no longer finds Global Warming Alarmism credible, it has devolved into a subject worthy only of ridicule.

Blame Global Warming.jpg
Blame Global Warming
Blame Global Warming.jpg (84.02 KiB) Viewed 5516 times
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 02 Jan 2017, 10:22:38

Yes, I will concede that some one like Guy Mcpherson is probably being more counterproductive than productive with his alarm that we will most likely become extinct by 2025 or something like that. I believe Cid has not stated that. He has said that the TSWHTF by approximately 2020 and from then on truly biblical proportion type catastrophes await and by around the end of the century that will probably be it for all of us. So, yes some predictions are not called for. I prefer simply to lay out the details and facts and let whomever reach their own conclusions as to severity and timing.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby dissident » Mon 02 Jan 2017, 13:50:29

Tanada wrote:
Onlooker this meme is popular on Facebook these days and is the prime example of what I am talking about. Joe6P no longer finds Global Warming Alarmism credible, it has devolved into a subject worthy only of ridicule.

Blame Global Warming.jpg


God what a retarded pile of BS. It is the denier f*cktards that always start yapping about global cooling when they have some cold spell or higher than normal snowfall where they live. People with a clue measure the temperature integrated around the globe and even if the vicinity of some denier degenerate got anomalously cold there are more than enough positive anomalies elsewhere to cancel out this "cooling". Perhaps deniers can look up the word "global" in the dictionary. Or is also a politicised term for them...
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby dissident » Mon 02 Jan 2017, 14:01:58

onlooker wrote:Yes, I will concede that some one like Guy Mcpherson is probably being more counterproductive than productive with his alarm that we will most likely become extinct by 2025 or something like that. I believe Cid has not stated that. He has said that the TSWHTF by approximately 2020 and from then on truly biblical proportion type catastrophes await and by around the end of the century that will probably be it for all of us. So, yes some predictions are not called for. I prefer simply to lay out the details and facts and let whomever reach their own conclusions as to severity and timing.


The fast cataclysm advocates like McPherson do not have much scientific foundation on which their conclusions rest. But deniers do not have the mental capacity to engage in the debate at this level. They believe that more snowfall proves that there is global cooling. They have no clue that strong zonal asymmetry in the circulation which includes pushing cold Arctic air to lower latitudes and at the same time warm, moist air to high latitudes (and producing those storm systems that dump the snow on their heads) is an indication of thermal energy accumulation in the atmosphere-ocean system. Thanks to the corporate propaganda with the assistance of the prostitute mass media everyone with a political opinion thinks they are an expert in this branch of science. None of these drones demonstrate any actual knowledge of the science. They just have polarized, aggressive opinions based on their political orientation and whatever talk radio yap they trust.

It is the US Joe SixPack who has swallowed the denier turd plate of ludicrous notions. Most Europeans have not been as worked over by corporate sponsored denier propaganda.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby kuidaskassikaeb » Mon 02 Jan 2017, 16:20:20

Image

We really can't run away from this, since it's the point. Global warming is screwing up everything and including lot
of things that you just wouldn't think of. Maybe not hairballs but heartworm. Yes GLOBAL WARMING CAN KILL YOUR DOG.
Anyway maybe we made it to step 2. But they used to be fighting us, so maybe it's a step back.
Image
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 02 Jan 2017, 17:15:31

Image

http://www.spaceweather.com/

I haven't seen studies on this yet, but I'm seeing a lot more pictures like this of noctilucent clouds, clouds formed from ice particles in the stratosphere. Their supposed to be quite rare, since there generally is not much water vapor to form such crystals that far up in the atmosphere.

That we are seeing more pictures of them may be just a product of everyone having cameras. But I do wonder about this as evidence that Arctic methane had been getting up into the stratosphere. IIRC, that is the main mechanism for H2O formation at that altitude--the breakdown of methane and, I believe, ozone. But others can (and I'm sure will) correct me (and probably worse, but I guess that goes with the territory! :) ).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noctilucent_cloud
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 02 Jan 2017, 22:40:59

dohboi wrote:Image

http://www.spaceweather.com/

I haven't seen studies on this yet, but I'm seeing a lot more pictures like this of noctilucent clouds, clouds formed from ice particles in the stratosphere. Their supposed to be quite rare, since there generally is not much water vapor to form such crystals that far up in the atmosphere.

That we are seeing more pictures of them may be just a product of everyone having cameras. But I do wonder about this as evidence that Arctic methane had been getting up into the stratosphere. IIRC, that is the main mechanism for H2O formation at that altitude--the breakdown of methane and, I believe, ozone. But others can (and I'm sure will) correct me (and probably worse, but I guess that goes with the territory! :) ).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noctilucent_cloud



Starting back in the 1990's Russia opened up their trans-Siberan airspace to let passenger jets from North America fly to India or Hong Kong direct. As a result a lot more flights pass over the high arctic than did before. So what? Well because the tropopause in the high arctic is at a much lower altitude than it is in the mid latitudes those aircraft are all several thousand feet up into the Stratosphere. That means all the water vapor from their exhaust is also several thousand feet up in the stratosphere where those lovely noctilucent clouds form from crystilized water vapor and nitrogen oxides that used to be kerosene jet fuel.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 05:44:02

vtsnowedin wrote:
ralfy wrote:The point to consider is not timing but extent of damage across several generations.

That would assume we have several generations yet to be born. There is no guarantee of that.


That would explain the extent of damage.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby dissident » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 10:34:50

Subjectivist wrote:
dohboi wrote:Image

http://www.spaceweather.com/

I haven't seen studies on this yet, but I'm seeing a lot more pictures like this of noctilucent clouds, clouds formed from ice particles in the stratosphere. Their supposed to be quite rare, since there generally is not much water vapor to form such crystals that far up in the atmosphere.

That we are seeing more pictures of them may be just a product of everyone having cameras. But I do wonder about this as evidence that Arctic methane had been getting up into the stratosphere. IIRC, that is the main mechanism for H2O formation at that altitude--the breakdown of methane and, I believe, ozone. But others can (and I'm sure will) correct me (and probably worse, but I guess that goes with the territory! :) ).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noctilucent_cloud



Starting back in the 1990's Russia opened up their trans-Siberan airspace to let passenger jets from North America fly to India or Hong Kong direct. As a result a lot more flights pass over the high arctic than did before. So what? Well because the tropopause in the high arctic is at a much lower altitude than it is in the mid latitudes those aircraft are all several thousand feet up into the Stratosphere. That means all the water vapor from their exhaust is also several thousand feet up in the stratosphere where those lovely noctilucent clouds form from crystilized water vapor and nitrogen oxides that used to be kerosene jet fuel.


I have not seen any articles demonstrating this supposed effect. Aircraft cruise at around 11 km which is below the PSC formation zone in the Arctic. PSCs form between 14 and 20 km. Additional moisture from contrails released at 11 km will not work its way up to higher altitudes since it is literally being flushed down into the troposphere by the Brewer-Dobson circulation.

BTW, noctilucent clouds are the very high altitude ice clouds that form in the summer mesopause region (around 80 km). The lower stratosphere ice clouds are called polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). There can be a PSC trend introduced by a cooling trend or moistening trend. More CH4 oxidation in the stratosphere will introduce more H2O. Also, there is leakage of H2O from the upper tropical troposphere into the lowermost stratosphere through the subtropical flanks of the tropopause. In general, there is a transport barrier that does not allow a free exchange of tracer mass through this part of the tropopause, but this barrier is not perfect. An upper tropical troposphere moistening trend can translate into a lowermost stratosphere moistening trend. The Brewer-Dobson circulation has the right structure to transport this low latitude moisture to high latitudes even though a large fraction is being ventilated back into the troposphere.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 11:58:00

dissident have you seen this study? It seems to support your contention that PSC act to dehydrate the polar regions and mostly speaks of Arctic Stratospheric water vapor as coming from tropospheric transport (50 %) and chemical breakdown of methane and other chemicals at very high altitudes (50%)

http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/4307/ ... 7-2016.pdf
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby dissident » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 15:58:55

Tanada wrote:dissident have you seen this study? It seems to support your contention that PSC act to dehydrate the polar regions and mostly speaks of Arctic Stratospheric water vapor as coming from tropospheric transport (50 %) and chemical breakdown of methane and other chemicals at very high altitudes (50%)

http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/4307/ ... 7-2016.pdf


I have not read this paper before. But it does a straightforward analysis of the various contributions to water vapour in the Arctic stratosphere that is in agreement with understanding in the field.

This paper does not get into the details of the hydration of the lowermost stratosphere associated with warming. They correlate moistening with the cold-point tropical tropopause. But that is not the only injection surface.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 02:24:26

Thanks for the learned discussion. This is POForums at their best! :-D
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 09:16:13

pbrain wrote:I would use my remaining happy wealthy time left to take up yoga or religion. This is a waste of time.


Actually YOU are using it to try to convince others to believe your nonsense rather than their lying eyes.

Talk about a waste.

What do you gain if you manage to convince anyone to join your delusion? Certainly, it can't possibly make up for the time you will wish you had back.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 12:59:37

Cid_Yama wrote:
pbrain wrote:I would use my remaining happy wealthy time left to take up yoga or religion. This is a waste of time.


Actually YOU are using it to try to convince others to believe your nonsense rather than their lying eyes.

Talk about a waste.

What do you gain if you manage to convince anyone to join your delusion? Certainly, it can't possibly make up for the time you will wish you had back.

Cid, you have a lot of nerve even posting on this thread. Your predictions stink. The California drought is about to end in a river of rain, with 15 inches expected in SOCAL :? 8) The San Paulo drought is now completely done, officially over. The planet's deserts are blooming nicely. What else do you GW fankids have to bully us with?

It seems Runaway Global Warming will neither fry nor drown us. In fact, it has turned out to be a smelly damp mop. Something dug up in a hoarder's bathroom lol.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby kiwichick » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 15:34:39

weather related disasters incease 6 fold since the 1950's

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... anage-risk
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