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Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 15:26:21

California is not burning, just as California did not wash away this past winter (extraordinary rains).

This fire season is slightly below average. The worst fire season in recent years occurred back around 2010-11, before the drought. Those bad fire years were during to high-rain years. No correlation there. No disaster. Just happy normalcy.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 17:51:47

pstarr wrote: Just happy normalcy.


Actually, things aren't normal.

The last three years have ALL set record global temperatures. The chances of that happening "normally" are just about zero.

Nope---what we're living through is man-caused global warming. And its just getting started.

human-caused-streak-record-breaking-temperatures

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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 18:22:42

Plantagenet wrote:
pstarr wrote: Just happy normalcy.


Actually, things aren't normal.

The last three years have ALL set record global temperatures. The chances of that happening "normally" are just about zero.
Three years is not significant. This may very well be the onset of a short natural warming, no unlike the Medieval Climatic Anomaly. Or the The Holocene warming peak associated with the perihelion phase of the Milankovitch cycles.

That is mute, because pre-historical temperature records are virtually impossible. Even the best proxy records contain far fewer observations than the worst periods of the observational record, and the spatial and temporal resolution of the resulting reconstructions is correspondingly coarse.

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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 19:02:49

pstarr wrote:Three years is not significant.


You don't understand the math used in this statistical study.

The scientists didn't just use three years---they took the entire instrumental record of climate.. They assumed each year was an independent varible and calculated the probability of getting the the three highest numbers in a row.

Its a pretty simple statistical problem you might get in a first year stats class.

The probably of getting the three warmest years in a purely random sequence of over 100 data points occurring one after another, as we've seen in 2014, 2015 and 2016 (i.e. three years in sequence with record mean annual temperatures) is tiny.

pstarr wrote:
This may very well be the onset of a short natural warming, no unlike the Medieval Climatic Anomaly.


The medieval climate optimum was associated with high solar activity as recorded in 14C tree ring records, for example. We don't have that now.

pstarr wrote:Or the The Holocene warming peak associated with the perihelion phase of the Milankovitch cycles.


?????

There is no "perihelion phase" in the Milankovitch cycles. If you look at Milkovitch forcing due to orbital mechanics we are currently in a cooling period---not a warming period.


pstarr wrote:Cheers!


And cheers to you, Peter. Hope you had a FANTASTIC SUMMER down there in beautiful Humbolt Country. I was near to there in Ashland, oregon in late August for the Shakespeare Festival and there were record high temps--- it was HOT AS HELL ----but I know temps on the coast stayed cooler and milder
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 20:53:29

pstarr wrote:
ralfy wrote:I wonder if it has to do with the idea of reaching a point of no return.

So if this is truly the point of no reason, then i welcome it. Feels good to be a recovered climate doomer :) Give it a try ralfy.


I read about it some more, and it appears that he was referring to a point of no return:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/201 ... stretcher/

My understanding is that a point of no return or tipping point does not refer to major catastrophe but to a situation where it would be too late to avoid that.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 22:31:01

Plantagenet wrote:
pstarr wrote:Three years is not significant.


You don't understand the math used in this statistical study.

The scientists didn't just use three years---they took the entire instrumental record of climate.. They assumed each year was an independent varible and calculated the probability of getting the the three highest numbers in a row.

Its a pretty simple statistical problem you might get in a first year stats class.

The probably of getting the three warmest years in a purely random sequence of over 100 data points occurring one after another, as we've seen in 2014, 2015 and 2016 (i.e. three years in sequence with record mean annual temperatures) is tiny.
A single 3 year-data cluster within thousand-year dataset not measured is meaningless. Of course there have been similar albeit much longer 3,4 and 10 year anomalies.
Plantagenet wrote:
pstarr wrote:
This may very well be the onset of a short natural warming, no unlike the Medieval Climatic Anomaly.


The medieval climate optimum was associated with high solar activity as recorded in 14C tree ring records, for example. We don't have that now.
That's one theory. Others suggest decreased volcanic activity, and changes to ocean circulation.

Plantagenet wrote:
pstarr wrote:Or the The Holocene warming peak associated with the perihelion phase of the Milankovitch cycles.


?????

There is no "perihelion phase" in the Milankovitch cycles. If you look at Milkovitch forcing due to orbital mechanics we are currently in a cooling period---not a warming period.


pstarr wrote:Cheers!

The Holocene temperatures peaked around 8,000 years ago. This temperature peak was associated with the perihelion phase of the Milankovitch cycles. That was when it is estimated that the natural cycle climate forcing was at maximum, including associated climate feedbacks. Since then the forcing levels have been slowly dropping and the temperature has been following the slope of forcing in line with the changes in the Milankovitch cycle forcing combined with system feedbacks.

Plantagenet wrote:And cheers to you, Peter. Hope you had a FANTASTIC SUMMER down there in beautiful Humbolt Country. I was near to there in Ashland, oregon in late August for the Shakespeare Festival and there were record high temps--- it was HOT AS HELL ----but I know temps on the coast stayed cooler and milder

Ashland is a neat little town, full of culture. I've yet to make the theater scene. It is a difficult ride, through Coastal and Cascade Mts. I do prefer the cool coastal fog. Especially when the rest of the country is baking under that relentless GW Oven.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 15 Sep 2017, 23:08:17

ol, good link

the rest...please ignore the troll

threads taken up with obsessive responses to trolls are generally rather boring.

Most of us are above that
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Sat 16 Sep 2017, 00:30:56

dohboi wrote:ol, good link

the rest...please ignore the troll

threads taken up with obsessive responses to trolls are generally rather boring.

Most of us are above that

That's a snotty attitude. Can't stand to have your dogma questioned, little snowflake. I am surprised you are still here after your humiliating loss, post-California Drought. Somebody must pay you for this constant doomer drumbeat.

BTW . . . So the right-wing rag Washington Times has also taken up the GW flag. Marching to the same idiotic drumbeat as the NYT. It seems neither demographic has any shame left. Bored Bored Bored American too lazy and stupid to admit the truth.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby jawagord » Mon 18 Sep 2017, 08:48:53

The water in my garden hose was frozen almost solid Saturday morning, right on schedule for Calgary's first frost date of the fall.

http://m.veseys.com/?url=http%3A%2F%2Fw ... rrer=#2872
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 24 Sep 2017, 16:15:44

The linked reference explains how climate attractors converge non-linearly with time once the initiating conditions occur. Hopefully, AR6 will both recognize and report this response to continued warming, and it could rapidly ratchet the climate to higher dynamical levels sooner than most decision makers are expecting:

Drótos, G., Bódai, T. & Tél, T. (2017), "On the importance of the convergence to climate attractors", Eur. Phys. J. Spec. Top., 226: 2031. https://doi.org/10.1140/epjst/e2017-70045-7

https://link.springer.com/article/10.11 ... 17-70045-7

Abstract: "Ensemble approaches are becoming widely used in climate research. In contrast to weather forecast, however, in the climatic context one is interested in long-time properties, those arising on the scale of several decades. The well-known strong internal variability of the climate system implies the existence of a related dynamical attractor with chaotic properties. Under the condition of climate change this should be a snapshot attractor, naturally arising in an ensemble-based framework. Although ensemble averages can be evaluated at any instant of time, results obtained during the process of convergence of the ensemble towards the attractor are not relevant from the point of view of climate. In simulations, therefore, attention should be paid to whether the convergence to the attractor has taken place. We point out that this convergence is of exponential character, therefore, in a finite amount of time after initialization relevant results can be obtained. The role of the time scale separation due to the presence of the deep ocean is discussed from the point of view of ensemble simulations."

thanks to aslr at asif for the link and text
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby vox_mundi » Thu 28 Sep 2017, 12:40:58

The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth

The Plutocene: Blueprints for a Post-Anthropocene Greenhouse Earth presents projections and blueprints of the future geologic period, climate and biosphere, based on our current understanding of the Earth’s history and recent developments in the atmosphere-ocean-cryosphere system.

By the second decade of the 21st century it has become clear that, rather than channel its efforts into protecting its planetary biosphere and living species, Homo sapiens continues to sink its remaining resources into weapons, including nuclear missiles – thus increasing the risk of intentional or accidental spread of radioactive nuclides on land, oceans and atmosphere.

With time, possibility becomes probability, and probability becomes certainty ‒ heralding a transition from the Anthropocene to a new geological period, named here as Plutocene after the element Plutonium. During the Plutocene the biosphere is dominated by elevated temperatures, analogous to the Pliocene (2.6 – 5.3 Ma ago) or the Miocene (5.3 - 23 Ma ago) when mean global temperatures were 2 to 4 degrees Celsius warmer and sea levels 20 to 40 meters higher than pre-industrial levels. High levels of radioactivity will persist for at least 20,000 years and acid oceans will severely limit biological activity to the hardiest species. Atmospheric CO2 higher than 500 ppm with residence time on the order of thousands of years will delay the subsequent glacial cycle.

These factors restrict comparisons of the Plutocene with biosphere conditions during the Miocene and Pliocene periods, partly because the flora and fauna evolved more gradually during these periods, unlike the abrupt climate shift of state during the second half of the 20th century and first part of the 21st century. Following a long lull in biological activity dominated by radiation-resistant organisms, especially Arthropods, a resumption of glacial cycles and decline in radioactivity will lead to the re-emergence of descendants of burrowing mammals and other genera. Depending on the intensity of radioactive pollution, hunter-gatherer humans may survive in northern latitudes, relatively cold high-altitude mountain valleys and elevated volcanic islands. In some areas subsistence farming may be possible. A new cycle will commence.

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Insensible before the wave so soon released by callous fate. Affected most, they understand the least, and understanding, when it comes, invariably arrives too late.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dissident » Thu 28 Sep 2017, 17:07:33

Anti-nuclear BS. Nuclear power or weapons have nothing to do with AGW. Yapping about radioactive Cesium and Strontium lasting for 200,000 years is just retarded (look up their half-lives). Nuclear weapons and reactor accidents don't spread pure Plutonium radiation. The former spread zero. For the latter we have Chernobyl and Fukushima as real examples and Plutonium is by far a non-issue in the radioactive release.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 28 Sep 2017, 17:59:29

Ha!

I had only read the title and thought 'Oh, someone is naming the next era (or epoch...whatever) after humans have wrecked the planet after a Greek god of Hell/the underworld...how appropriate."

But yeah, this guy does seem a bit obsessed with plutonium. Still, as societies collapse, often violently, there is likely to be a lot of bad things happening to both nuclear bombs and nuclear plants, wouldn't you say?
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 28 Sep 2017, 18:24:32

vox_mundi wrote:hunter-gatherer humans may survive in northern latitudes, relatively cold high-altitude mountain valleys and elevated volcanic islands. In some areas subsistence farming may be possible. A new cycle will commence.


Exactly right.

Its not too early to pick out a good spot for your doomstead somewhere along the shores of the Arctic Ocean. Its going to up to the few and and the brave living in Alaska and similar high latitude places to keep the human race going and preserve our glorious human culture, hopefully at a technological level several steps above "subsistence farming."

Cheers!
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 29 Sep 2017, 01:18:08

Back to runaway gw...

Even worse than 'normal' feedbacks kicking in is when sinks turn into sources, which is what seems to be happening with tropical forests now:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ion-source

Alarm as study reveals world’s tropical forests are huge carbon emission source

Forests globally are so degraded that instead of absorbing emissions they now release more carbon annually than all the traffic in the US
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 29 Sep 2017, 10:46:46

Plantagenet wrote:
pstarr wrote: Just happy normalcy.


Actually, things aren't normal.

The last three years have ALL set record global temperatures. The chances of that happening "normally" are just about zero.

Nope---what we're living through is man-caused global warming. And its just getting started.

human-caused-streak-record-breaking-temperatures


Yep. All the more reason to jump in a plane for Greece to clear the mind, hey Plant?
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 29 Sep 2017, 10:49:26

dohboi wrote:Back to runaway gw...

Even worse than 'normal' feedbacks kicking in is when sinks turn into sources, which is what seems to be happening with tropical forests now:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... ion-source

Alarm as study reveals world’s tropical forests are huge carbon emission source

Forests globally are so degraded that instead of absorbing emissions they now release more carbon annually than all the traffic in the US

The article claims the study measures carbon release over the Amazon? As the link to the original study is broken, it is difficult to imagine how that measurement was taken? Did they employ tree climbers and breathalyzers?

I call . . . nonsense :) 8)
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 29 Sep 2017, 12:37:24

Lots of different studies. I find this one interesting:

http://www.longrangeweather.com/global_temperatures.htm

Their analysis indicates the most recent warming trend began in the mid 1800's. Other data indicates the trend increased rapidly with the beginning of the industrial age which was also coincidental with an ever increasing rate of fossil fuel consumption.

What's very interesting is the prediction of global cooling in the 2020's followed by a very strong ramping up in temps in the 2030's. A bit of something for everyone. LOL.

Looks like if want to stall global warming long term we need to do what we can to continually activate volcanic activity. Might piss off the local natives. But, hey, can't make everyone happy .
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 29 Sep 2017, 12:40:44

So we can nuke the volcanoes? Any emissions are better than co2 emissions, right?
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 29 Sep 2017, 12:52:39

And then we have the release of CO2 and Methane according to Dissident to look forward to from the Oceans. Well, that is why this thread is called Runaway Global Warming
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