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Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 05:44:02

vtsnowedin wrote:
ralfy wrote:The point to consider is not timing but extent of damage across several generations.

That would assume we have several generations yet to be born. There is no guarantee of that.


That would explain the extent of damage.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby dissident » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 10:34:50

Subjectivist wrote:
dohboi wrote:Image

http://www.spaceweather.com/

I haven't seen studies on this yet, but I'm seeing a lot more pictures like this of noctilucent clouds, clouds formed from ice particles in the stratosphere. Their supposed to be quite rare, since there generally is not much water vapor to form such crystals that far up in the atmosphere.

That we are seeing more pictures of them may be just a product of everyone having cameras. But I do wonder about this as evidence that Arctic methane had been getting up into the stratosphere. IIRC, that is the main mechanism for H2O formation at that altitude--the breakdown of methane and, I believe, ozone. But others can (and I'm sure will) correct me (and probably worse, but I guess that goes with the territory! :) ).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Noctilucent_cloud



Starting back in the 1990's Russia opened up their trans-Siberan airspace to let passenger jets from North America fly to India or Hong Kong direct. As a result a lot more flights pass over the high arctic than did before. So what? Well because the tropopause in the high arctic is at a much lower altitude than it is in the mid latitudes those aircraft are all several thousand feet up into the Stratosphere. That means all the water vapor from their exhaust is also several thousand feet up in the stratosphere where those lovely noctilucent clouds form from crystilized water vapor and nitrogen oxides that used to be kerosene jet fuel.


I have not seen any articles demonstrating this supposed effect. Aircraft cruise at around 11 km which is below the PSC formation zone in the Arctic. PSCs form between 14 and 20 km. Additional moisture from contrails released at 11 km will not work its way up to higher altitudes since it is literally being flushed down into the troposphere by the Brewer-Dobson circulation.

BTW, noctilucent clouds are the very high altitude ice clouds that form in the summer mesopause region (around 80 km). The lower stratosphere ice clouds are called polar stratospheric clouds (PSCs). There can be a PSC trend introduced by a cooling trend or moistening trend. More CH4 oxidation in the stratosphere will introduce more H2O. Also, there is leakage of H2O from the upper tropical troposphere into the lowermost stratosphere through the subtropical flanks of the tropopause. In general, there is a transport barrier that does not allow a free exchange of tracer mass through this part of the tropopause, but this barrier is not perfect. An upper tropical troposphere moistening trend can translate into a lowermost stratosphere moistening trend. The Brewer-Dobson circulation has the right structure to transport this low latitude moisture to high latitudes even though a large fraction is being ventilated back into the troposphere.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 11:58:00

dissident have you seen this study? It seems to support your contention that PSC act to dehydrate the polar regions and mostly speaks of Arctic Stratospheric water vapor as coming from tropospheric transport (50 %) and chemical breakdown of methane and other chemicals at very high altitudes (50%)

http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/4307/ ... 7-2016.pdf
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby dissident » Tue 03 Jan 2017, 15:58:55

Tanada wrote:dissident have you seen this study? It seems to support your contention that PSC act to dehydrate the polar regions and mostly speaks of Arctic Stratospheric water vapor as coming from tropospheric transport (50 %) and chemical breakdown of methane and other chemicals at very high altitudes (50%)

http://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/16/4307/ ... 7-2016.pdf


I have not read this paper before. But it does a straightforward analysis of the various contributions to water vapour in the Arctic stratosphere that is in agreement with understanding in the field.

This paper does not get into the details of the hydration of the lowermost stratosphere associated with warming. They correlate moistening with the cold-point tropical tropopause. But that is not the only injection surface.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 02:24:26

Thanks for the learned discussion. This is POForums at their best! :-D
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 09:16:13

pbrain wrote:I would use my remaining happy wealthy time left to take up yoga or religion. This is a waste of time.


Actually YOU are using it to try to convince others to believe your nonsense rather than their lying eyes.

Talk about a waste.

What do you gain if you manage to convince anyone to join your delusion? Certainly, it can't possibly make up for the time you will wish you had back.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 12:59:37

Cid_Yama wrote:
pbrain wrote:I would use my remaining happy wealthy time left to take up yoga or religion. This is a waste of time.


Actually YOU are using it to try to convince others to believe your nonsense rather than their lying eyes.

Talk about a waste.

What do you gain if you manage to convince anyone to join your delusion? Certainly, it can't possibly make up for the time you will wish you had back.

Cid, you have a lot of nerve even posting on this thread. Your predictions stink. The California drought is about to end in a river of rain, with 15 inches expected in SOCAL :? 8) The San Paulo drought is now completely done, officially over. The planet's deserts are blooming nicely. What else do you GW fankids have to bully us with?

It seems Runaway Global Warming will neither fry nor drown us. In fact, it has turned out to be a smelly damp mop. Something dug up in a hoarder's bathroom lol.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby kiwichick » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 15:34:39

weather related disasters incease 6 fold since the 1950's

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... anage-risk
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 15:39:34

kiwichick wrote:weather related disasters incease 6 fold since the 1950's

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... anage-risk

Is that a measure of severity or history? Back in the 1950 there were 2 billion humans on the planet. Folks didn't live in flood plains, on unstable hillsides, or the hottest desert regions. Giant south pacific cyclones and African droughts hardly counted or reported. Weather forecasting was crude, as was journalism.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 16:06:13

pbrain wrote:Cid, you have a lot of nerve even posting on this thread. Your predictions stink.

HA! I almost fell out of my chair laughing.

You do realize you have no credibility whatsoever on this website. Making such a statement just gave everyone a good laugh.

Now you can pretend that whatever you say carries some weight outside of your bros, KJ, Subjectivist, C8, Cog and maybe Tanada, but it doesn't.

You're just preaching to the choir.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 16:12:47

pstarr wrote:
kiwichick wrote:weather related disasters incease 6 fold since the 1950's

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... anage-risk

Is that a measure of severity or history? Back in the 1950 there were 2 billion humans on the planet. Folks didn't live in flood plains, on unstable hillsides, or the hottest desert regions. Giant south pacific cyclones and African droughts hardly counted or reported. Weather forecasting was crude, as was journalism.

You have heard of the ancient Egyptians haven't you?
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 16:56:30

A little decorum please guys. Remember that we here are pretty universilly outside society norms for awareness. We have more in common than not.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 17:06:57

Newfie wrote:A little decorum please guys. Remember that we here are pretty universilly outside society norms for awareness. We have more in common than not.

Newfie, i don't normally get involved with global warming. But this thread is over the top, not accepted by serious sciencists. See IPCC-5.This thread is where I feel comfortable and justified.

I question the doom and exaggerations, and am always promptly insulted for it. The hysteria scared the crap out of me for years. Now I see a lot of the fankids predictions as failed, merely as cycles of drought etc. And they ridicule me for my interest in NASA's Global Greening report. But are unable to refute it.

The earth is steadily getting greener.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 18:34:12

One must ask: At what point does p's behavior on these threads amount to trolling or stalking?

If there is no substantive contribution besides "you're all idiots for thinking this," is there any reason for him to be allowed to continuing to post on GW-related threads?

Just a thought.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 18:38:33

He made a sincere post. You or I may not agree with his position but it is his opinion.

Debate him with facts.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Wed 04 Jan 2017, 22:02:32

What 'p' has done is once again to admit his motivation behind his posts. He wants everyone saying scary things to stfu, and wants the scary threads shut down.

If that isn't obvious when he repeatedly tells you that himself, then it will never be.

I'm sure that is his deepest most sincere feelings but,

HIS INTENT IS TO DISRUPT

He admits it freely, so regardless of how sincerely he feels about it, he fits the definition of a Troll, and his attempts to disrupt are a violation of COC.

This is not an attack on 'p' nor an attempt to get him in trouble.

The sincere posters on this thread, want the freedom of discussing the topic of these threads without disruption from those who don't like the topic being discussed.

Whether you agree with 'p' or not, those who wish to discuss these topics have an equal right to the freedom of doing so without being molested.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby kiwichick » Thu 05 Jan 2017, 03:40:11

record breaking extreme weather in Australia in 2016

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... ecosystems
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby kiwichick » Thu 05 Jan 2017, 03:42:36

running 15 mean average temperature for Australia at record high

http://www.bom.gov.au/tmp/cc/tmean.aus. ... .hires.png
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby kiwichick » Thu 05 Jan 2017, 03:56:35

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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Thu 05 Jan 2017, 12:10:00

Yes Cid, I admitted to emotional damage. It started with 2005 monster Hurricane season and the 2011 May tornado outbreak. It felt like the harbinger of runaway global warming. It scared the crap out of me.

The California (and the San Paulo) droughts were horrible, nightmare for many GW doomers such as myself. But the droughts came and went, and then I realized what a con THIS ENTIRE THREAD is. Not global warming in general, just this thread. I have a right and duty to call this crap out. Doom has not arrived for the 14th, will not on the 15th version of this tiresome circle jerk.
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