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Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Re: Melting Snow and Ice Report - A Call For Action

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 06 Feb 2010, 10:17:33

VMarcHart wrote:
Jotapay wrote:Here is a representation of CO2 over geologic time. Note we are currently around 390 ppm CO2 in the atmosphere which is pretty low, relatively speaking. Temps are also no where near past record highs. Combine that with the bad data that researchers are working with and I think it's easy to see why the current hysteria is a little overblown.
I wonder how many Homo sapiens used to stroll the air-conditioned halls of shopping malls some 150+ million years ago, let alone breathe in that atmosphere. I wonder if you can do it.

Here's an idea. Let's put you in a chamber, raise the temperature and CO2 level, and check how long you last. Are you game?



If you keep the chamber no warmer than the 23C max on that chart and the CO2 at 8000 ppm or less I would be willing to live in it. I firmly believe in AGW, as should be clear from my scores of posts on the topic, but 23C is not an uncomfortable temperature and 8,000 ppm CO2 is well within the human tolerance limit of 15,000 ppm CO2.

You need to know a little human physiology before issuing a challenge like that VM. You make it look as if believers in AGW are all ignorant followers of something they have no knowledge of, and that is not the case.

As for 'climategate' the CRU has done more to damage the public perception of the science behind AGW than any number of BAU corporations could have managed. Reputable scientists like Dr. Lonnie Thompson and Dr. David Archer are being ignored simply because there work was cited by political hacks at the CRU and IPCC. They have laid a foundation of solid science on the topic, and neither one of them are political Hacks like those at the CRU.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Melting Snow and Ice Report - A Call For Action

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 06 Feb 2010, 10:24:42

VM and others would benefit from watching this lecture by Dr. David Archer at Fermi national Laboratory.

http://vmsstreamer1.fnal.gov/VMS_Site_0 ... /index.htm
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Melting Snow and Ice Report - A Call For Action

Unread postby VMarcHart » Sat 06 Feb 2010, 10:44:23

Tanada can't spell Erie, neither can read graphs; did you see the word average?
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: Melting Snow and Ice Report - A Call For Action

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 06 Feb 2010, 11:21:43

Jotapay wrote:Image

Even this data is uncertain and incomplete, as noted in the graph.


Good graph. Certainly puts all the hoopla into perspective, doesn't it?

What I am concerned about is that the official AAPG statement on climate change asks for something very specific from the modelers, which is to show how their models match up against a known dataset, specifically, climate spanning the last 200,000 years.

I have not yet seen the modelers response. The AAPG request seems completely reasonable...and certainly within the realm of what scientists normally do to check their work.

I wonder if there is an official statement as to why they haven't done it? Certainly if their work cannot predict a known dataset, its value in trying to predict the future is immediately called into question. Predicting the unknown and pretending the answer has value ( without appropriate testing to another scientific bodies satisfaction ) seems like a cart before the horse exercise.
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Re: Melting Snow and Ice Report - A Call For Action

Unread postby dorlomin » Sat 06 Feb 2010, 11:27:03

shortonsense wrote:Good graph. Certainly puts all the hoopla into perspective, doesn't it?
zzz z z z z zzzzzz zzzz zzzz zzzzz



Attention seeking troll seeks attention. Dangles a hook to see who bites.
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Re: Melting Snow and Ice Report - A Call For Action

Unread postby VMarcHart » Sat 06 Feb 2010, 11:39:31

shortonsense wrote:Good graph.Certainly puts all the hoopla into perspective, doesn't it?
It sure does. It clear shows none of your ancestors lived when CO2 and average temperature were higher than today, and none of your kids will either.

:razz:
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: Melting Snow and Ice Report - A Call For Action

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 06 Feb 2010, 11:43:20

dorlomin wrote:
shortonsense wrote:Good graph. Certainly puts all the hoopla into perspective, doesn't it?
zzz z z z z zzzzzz zzzz zzzz zzzzz



Attention seeking troll seeks attention. Dangles a hook to see who bites.


I am always surprised that the standard response to a very reasonable and specific question ( why won't the modelers run their models against a known dataset as requested by paleoclimate experts known as "geologists" ) is to label the messenger a troll.

Excellent way to not answer, or in this case even acknowledge, the question. Of course, a minute or two of googling around might reveal why such a distraction is needed, eh?
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Re: Melting Snow and Ice Report - A Call For Action

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 06 Feb 2010, 11:45:55

VMarcHart wrote:
shortonsense wrote:Good graph.Certainly puts all the hoopla into perspective, doesn't it?
It sure does. It clear shows none of your ancestors lived when CO2 and average temperature were higher than today, and none of your kids will either.

:razz:


Please. It shows that mankind has already adapted to a much higher increase in temperature than the current crop of modelers are predicting we can expect for at least the next century.

And thats assuming their models are worth a crap, which certainly doesn't appear to be the case to date.
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Re: Melting Snow and Ice Report - A Call For Action

Unread postby VMarcHart » Sat 06 Feb 2010, 11:52:39

shortonsense wrote:Please. It shows that mankind has already adapted to a much higher increase in temperature than the current crop of modelers are predicting we can expect for at least the next century.
Exaclty which mankind lived 100 millions ago?
On 9/29/08, cube wrote: "The Dow will drop to 4,000 within 2 years". The current tally is 239 bold predictions, 9 right, 96 wrong, 134 open. If you've heard here, it's probably wrong.
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Re: Melting Snow and Ice Report - A Call For Action

Unread postby dorlomin » Sat 06 Feb 2010, 12:29:05

shortonsense wrote: a minute or two of googling around might reveal why such a distraction is needed, eh?

((((((((shortonsense))))))) sorry I wont play with you. His modus operandi is to stroll into a topic, deliberately pick a controversial point, ignore responses he does not like and carry on with his waffling.

Anyone who wants to waste time beating there head against the brick wall, go ahead, but me, my life is too short to indulge shortonsense's ego.
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Re: Melting Snow and Ice Report - A Call For Action

Unread postby dorlomin » Sun 07 Feb 2010, 16:32:06

dorlomin wrote:Main sequence stars burn hydrogen into helium as a fuel. As they age the ratio of hydrogen to helium tilts in favour of helium, which is twice as dense, The denisty of the core is the critical factor in the burn rate of the star. This has all been well understood and pretty mainstream astrophysics from the 50s. The consaquence of this is that a star like the sun produces more energy as it ages, or when you run the clock backwards it cools as you go further back into time. The figure given for the past 500 million years is about 1% per 100 million years. So if one takes for example 100million years ago, we can give a ball park figure.
The current temperature is about 287K.
The greenhouse effect is about 33K
So the current direct solar energy is about 254K
At 1% less solar energy this would be roughly 251K

If we take the CO2 level at being 1700ppm we can make rough estimates of the additional global warming, 280ppm is given as the preindustrial level and each doubling generates an estimated 2K. At about 2.5 times preindustrial levels this would be 5K of additional heating or just slightly above current the current level of 251K + 33K + 5K =289K. Many other factors also contribute including changes in albedo and so on, but the figures give an indication that higher levels of CO2 during the Phanerozoic are necessary to prevent a global freeze.
Can somone explain why this AGW-tard is wrong. There has been no response to this post, Id at least expect to be accused of being in a cult for believing in nuclear fusion.
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Re: Melting Snow and Ice Report - A Call For Action

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Mon 08 Feb 2010, 22:09:29

Tanada wrote :>I firmly believe in AGW
Then why haven't you posted an open min arctic sea ice estimate for 2010? Don't you believe all the scare storys about it melting away at an acelarating pace?
Is that the 'firmly believe' as in the PO AGWer version of 'firmly believe' where by no DIY science is performed for fear of it refuting your belief? Most of the older wiser AGWer's here go by this version of firmly believing ( none of 'em ever post min sea ice estimates, leaving it to the easily led AGW newbie kids ). I spose it's like religious folk questioning god - it's heresy to do so, likewise, never test AGW incase you find it doesn't exist.
Please proove me wrong. You are my favourite, most respected AGWer. Post an estimate.
There's nearly 10 pages of scare storys stacking up in the min sea ice thread. You gotta believe some of 'em as part of your AGW pledge, no?

dorlomin wrote >Can somone explain why this AGW-tard is wrong. There has been no response to this post, Id at least expect to be accused of being in a cult for believing in nuclear fusion.

well the most clear error is this bit...
>280ppm is given as the preindustrial level and each doubling generates an estimated 2K.
Which is a very poor estmate.
CO2 warming falls off much faster than that.
One reference that might be useful here and got both PO skeptic and AGW seal of approval is the University of chicago mod tran facility.
http://geoflop.uchicago.edu/forecast/do ... .orig.html
disident used to reference it quite a bit IIRC. I liked it aswell. I Couldn't get it to do a nice graph, so you'll have to cruch the data yourself!
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Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 01 Jan 2017, 16:10:38

@ pstarr.....yes the plants take in the CO2 faster .....and increased heat and evaporation forces them to close down so they don't die

in this transition phase some species will exhibit gains .....just as some higher latitudes will also exhibit gains ....but areas where it is already hot/dry a point will be reached ....if the current warming trend continues....when the gains start to reverse
Having been involved in agriculture for over 30 years it is very easy to see how fragile most agricultural systems actually are ......especially at the modern levels of production expected and required to keep 7 billion humans alive

While nitrogen is a byproduct of the natural gas industry (largely ) , the other major elements ,,P, K, S, Ca, Mg ....are all essentially non renewable , even if they can ( could ) be recyclable
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 01 Jan 2017, 16:52:18

Subjectivist wrote:
pstarr wrote:but we could never adapt, build enough dikes to prevent flooding of our cites and suburbs. The rising tides would always find a way through the small hole and ruin everything. (:


We have these things called moving trucks that can relocate you to Adenver where you will never have to worry about sea level rise again.

You are yanking firmly on my chain, right? :?
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 01 Jan 2017, 17:02:44

kiwichick wrote:@ pstarr.....yes the plants take in the CO2 faster .....and increased heat and evaporation forces them to close down so they don't die

You have it backwards. Closed stomata is the cause of increased plant growth. The stomata closes because CO2 intake is maximized, not because of evaporation or heat damages the plant.The result is less water has a chance to evaporate. Healthier plants, less, not more, evaporation.

kiwichick wrote:in this transition phase some species will exhibit gains .....just as some higher latitudes will also exhibit gains ....but areas where it is already hot/dry a point will be reached ....if the current warming trend continues....when the gains start to reverse
'if the current warming trend continue' is a big IF . . . given that global greening has just commenced.

kiwichick wrote:Having been involved in agriculture for over 30 years it is very easy to see how fragile most agricultural systems actually are ......especially at the modern levels of production expected and required to keep 7 billion humans alive

Peak oil and the collapse of industrial civilization will be a bitch for many. I sure don't expect to see 7 billion alive much past 2020.

kiwichick wrote:While nitrogen is a byproduct of the natural gas industry (largely ) , the other major elements ,,P, K, S, Ca, Mg ....are all essentially non renewable , even if they can ( could ) be recyclable

Neither new production, not reclamation of essential nutrients will be possible post-peak.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 01 Jan 2017, 18:04:58

@ pstarr.....one response to increased levels of CO2 is to reduce stomata density

hence CO2 is only required in certain quantity's ; more CO2 won't result in more plant growth longterm because other elements will be the limiting factors ; including heat and water

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoma#Function
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 01 Jan 2017, 18:08:57

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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 01 Jan 2017, 20:11:40

kiwichick wrote:Recycling is already happening

http://p-rex.eu/uploads/media/P-REX_Pol ... _final.pdf

Meaningless on so many levels I hardly have time to explore.

Entrapment of municipal waste has been tried for a century and fails everytime. Check threads here at PO.com on methane power production, biofuels, and phosphorus etc. It is a losing proposition because of the cost, and EROIE. No new, wow, gee-whiz gimmick will change that

Orders of magnitude more phosphorus waste occurs on the farm as runoff. Into the ocean to be lost for millennia. Until sea bird colonies can redeposit it on land. Our shit is not worth shit in the larger scheme of things lol

But what this all has to do with GW is beyond me?
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 01 Jan 2017, 20:15:56

kiwichick wrote:@ pstarr.....one response to increased levels of CO2 is to reduce stomata density

hence CO2 is only required in certain quantity's ; more CO2 won't result in more plant growth longterm because other elements will be the limiting factors ; including heat and water

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoma#Function

Didn't we just see that desert regions have MORE GREENING?. The hottest places benefit the most. So even if the entire planet warms to desert temperatures, then we will see even more greening everywhere. Jeez, are we going around on this forever.

You guys must really like possible future GW doom, keeps your minds off the immediate catastrophic peak-oil collapse happening now. I would use my remaining happy wealthy time left to take up yoga or religion. This is a waste of time.
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Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 13

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 01 Jan 2017, 20:47:25

The point to consider is not timing but extent of damage across several generations.
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