Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby baha » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 06:50:18

That's great, plants are so good at processing CO2, let's dig them up and put a parking lot :)
A Solar fuel spill is otherwise known as a sunny day!
The energy density of a tank of FF's doesn't matter if it's empty.
User avatar
baha
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 451
Joined: Thu 12 Jul 2007, 02:00:00
Location: North Carolina, USA

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 09:59:01

dohboi wrote:There's nothing really new in p's article.
Except the important study, published this week in Nature, a most respected science journal.

New are the observations, results, predictions and accuracy. It models additional plant growth as expressed by increases in atmospheric carbonyl sulfide . . . since the industrial revolution. It seems the more fossil fuels we burn, the more green growth on the planet. Good deal huh?

Carbonyl sulfide is a specific off-gas generated by photosynthesis. There is no other known engine for its appearance in the atmosphere. So the study examined ice-cores going back before we burned fossil fuels and found that increases of carbonyl sulfide increased in lockstep (31% ± 5% growth; mean ± 95% confidence interval) with with CO2 releases. Good science huh?

dohboi wrote:We've known that there was some extra uptake of carbon by plants, as was expected. But the graphs attached to the article suggest that this effect peaked in about 1990. So it is not likely to help us much any more going forward, unfortunately.

A lot more uptake than you are willing to admit. The entire sub-saharan region is greening. That more than makes up for a few lost square miles of Central Valley acorns.

What graphs? I saw no graphs. The article is behind a paywall? You have special access?

dohboi wrote:This also means that crops have been getting less nutritious, more empty calories...another thing that might be behind the global obesity epidemic (though that can mostly be chalked up to Coke and other companies pushing their sugary products on the populace).

distractions and humbug.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 25021
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 10:54:18

Global warming is a hoax perpetuated by the oil companies. They don't want you to stop shopping, they like it when you get stuck in traffic jams. They want you to buy their oil.

What better way then to push the 'long-term view' of oil depletion, you know . . . human technology and economics trumps natural systems blah blah blah. Dangle global warming ("the earth won't be habitable . . . in 50 years"). It's little more than a street con.

We are running out of fossil fuels right this second, and the twits are re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Sad really.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 25021
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 11:45:07

pstarr wrote:Global warming is a hoax perpetuated by the oil companies. They don't want you to stop shopping, they like it when you get stuck in traffic jams. They want you to buy their oil.

What better way then to push the 'long-term view' of oil depletion, you know . . . human technology and economics trumps natural systems blah blah blah. Dangle global warming ("the earth won't be habitable . . . in 50 years"). It's little more than a street con.

We are running out of fossil fuels right this second, and the twits are re-arranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Sad really.


Should be the other way round.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
User avatar
ralfy
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 4464
Joined: Sat 28 Mar 2009, 10:36:38
Location: The Wasteland

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 11:56:37

I don't understand your point ralfy. What do you mean by "should be the other way around"

Do you mean that it should be that oil will last forever but we are fucking the planet right now with emissions? But if that were the case, if oil lasted forever than we could use unimaginable amounts of oil to sequester all the oil gaseous emissions.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 25021
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 13:18:33

pstarr wrote:Do you mean that it should be that oil will last forever but we are fucking the planet right now with emissions?


False dichotomy. Oil doesn't have to last forever to **** up the planet.
Last edited by Tanada on Mon 17 Apr 2017, 08:29:32, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: profanity removed
asg70
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 237
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 14:13:03

All the years we were not allowed to use profanity on this board, and I just now noticed it must be ok now.
****, *******, ****
There, I feel better now.
Last edited by Tanada on Mon 17 Apr 2017, 08:30:38, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: profanity removed
"It don't make no sense that common sense don't make no sense no more"
John Prine
Hawkcreek
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 1426
Joined: Sun 15 Aug 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Washington State

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby donstewart » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 15:49:28

Here is the editor’s summary of the Nature article:

'The potential growth in terrestrial gross primary production (GPP) as a result of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations remains poorly understood. This has led to large uncertainties in modelled estimates of terrestrial carbon storage and carbon cycle–climate feedbacks. This paper presents an estimate of GPP growth during the twentieth century, based on long-term records of atmospheric carbonyl sulfide, which responds to changes in its sources and sinks, such as uptake by plant leaves. With the help of model simulations, the authors find that the carbonyl sulfide record is most consistent with climate–carbon cycle model simulations that assume about 30 per cent growth in GPP during the twentieth century. Carbonyl sulfide analysis could provide a global-scale benchmark for modelling historical carbon cycles, the authors say.'

Earth was experiencing about 300 parts per million of carbon in 1900. Now the figure is over 400. So carbon parts per million increased about one third. IF it was true that plants took up carbon dioxide and it stayed in the plants or in the ground, and the plants took up roughly a third more carbon dioxide, then the parts per million shouldn’t have gone up at all. As carbon emissions from fossil fuels and from agriculture increased carbon releases from the soil, then plants should have responded by simply using more carbon, keeping parts per million pretty stable.

Obviously, that is not happening.

If you watch Thomas Goreau’s video on labile and recalcitrant carbon, you may get a clue:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b9dbyU___LA
Most of the carbon taken up by plants is rapidly returned to the air. Goreau recommends burning more plants into bio-char, which he believes is stable for a very long time.

The bad news, I think, is that if we continue with business as usual, parts per million of carbon will continue their upward trajectory (2015 and 2016 set new records for increase in ppm). The good news is that plants have the ability to increase their primary production, which should allow us to follow Goreau’s advice and make more bio-char. However, retooling from fossil fuels and industrial agriculture to Albert Bates Cool Lab and no-till and bio-char will be a shock to the system.

http://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2017/04/ ... l-lab.html
I’m just an amateur reading the news. So be wary of anything I say.

Don Stewart
donstewart
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 363
Joined: Fri 16 Sep 2016, 03:37:24

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 16:19:15

Hawkcreek wrote:All the years we were not allowed to use profanity on this board, and I just now noticed it must be ok now.
*************************
There, I feel better now.

Remember what the English teacher said, "Profanity is the ignorant persons feeble attempt at expressing himself". :)
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7360
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 16:28:51

donstewart wrote:Here is the editor’s summary of the Nature article:
.........



Most of the carbon taken up by plants is rapidly returned to the air. Goreau recommends burning more plants into bio-char, which he believes is stable for a very long time.

The bad news, I think, is that if we continue with business as usual, parts per million of carbon will continue their upward trajectory (2015 and 2016 set new records for increase in ppm). The good news is that plants have the ability to increase their primary production, which should allow us to follow Goreau’s advice and make more bio-char. However, retooling from fossil fuels and industrial agriculture to Albert Bates Cool Lab and no-till and bio-char will be a shock to the system.

http://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2017/04/ ... l-lab.html
I’m just an amateur reading the news. So be wary of anything I say.

Don Stewart

I have to wonder how much carbon that would normally be in the soil has been released by the use of herbicides in big commercial agriculture. They "burn down" cover crops to get a weed free stand of mono-culture crop and it kills all the roots in the topsoil releasing the carbon they contain.
User avatar
vtsnowedin
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 7360
Joined: Fri 11 Jul 2008, 02:00:00

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Hawkcreek » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 17:01:56

vtsnowedin wrote:
Hawkcreek wrote:All the years we were not allowed to use profanity on this board, and I just now noticed it must be ok now.
******************
There, I feel better now.

Remember what the English teacher said, "Profanity is the ignorant persons feeble attempt at expressing himself". :)

I kinda grew up in, and around, the oil field construction trades, and that was the most common noun, verb, adverb, and adjective used.
Then one son joined the Marine Corps, and the other the Navy. Christmas dinners now sound like something from a biker bar after midnight. :)
"It don't make no sense that common sense don't make no sense no more"
John Prine
Hawkcreek
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 1426
Joined: Sun 15 Aug 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Washington State

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 17:12:27

But it is happening Don. From the journal Nature, and NASA satellite data:
Carbon Dioxide Fertilization Greening Earth, Study Finds

We show a persistent and widespread increase of growing season integrated LAI (greening) over 25% to 50% of the global vegetated area, whereas less than 4% of the globe shows decreasing LAI (browning). Factorial simulations with multiple global ecosystem models suggest that CO2 fertilization effects explain 70% of the observed greening trend. – Zhu et al.

And the greatest benefits from CO2 are in the semi arid and arid climates. The deserts are blooming all over the world. Yay :)
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 25021
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby donstewart » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 17:13:46

@vtsnowedin
Don't quote me on it. I could probably find the number after a somewhat disorganized search. But I think about a third of the surplus carbon dioxide in the air comes from the soil. It gets tricky to try to do back of the envelope math, if you are an amateur. For example, a very high percentage of the carbon burned as fossil fuels went into the oceans. If we reduce the carbon dioxide in the air by, for example, making biochar, then that ocean carbon will come back into the air. Albert Bates did some math a few posts ago and concluded that we not only need to engage in regenerative agriculture, we also need to produce recalcitrant carbon in the form of bio-char.

Don Stewart
donstewart
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 363
Joined: Fri 16 Sep 2016, 03:37:24

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby donstewart » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 17:25:26

@pstarr
There are a couple of questions regarding carbon dioxide in the air that I don't pretend to be an expert on. The first is the evident fact that it used to be warmer with much higher levels of carbon dioxide and lush forests and much higher ocean levels. Here is David George Haskell writing in The Songs of Trees, page 142, from the Florissant Fossil Beds near Colorado Springs:

'At the peak of the Eocene's heat, the planet was hot from pole to pole. Lush forests grew in what is now the treeless Arctic, in temperatures 30 degrees (C, I assume) warmer than modern Arctic conditions. Palms grew in a frost-free Antarctica.'

As I understand it, a big puzzle here is how palm trees could grow with six months of endless sun and six months of endless darkness. We don't have trees today able to do that.

At any rate, high carbon dioxide and high temperatures have not been a limitation on vegetation over geologic time. As I understand it, there is some concern that the plants which feed humans are not so adaptive. We may see an upside down U curve in terms of yield. Of course, many things besides heat stress are factors in crop yields.

Whatever 'greening of the desert' is occurring is not happening fast enough to stop the rise in carbon dioxide at Mauna Loa. I also read periodically optimistic estimates about the 'reduced emissions' from this or that technology or this or that program. But the curve at Mauna Loa keeps rising at an accelerating rate.

Don Stewart
donstewart
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 363
Joined: Fri 16 Sep 2016, 03:37:24

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 18:52:18

Don, I suspect the negative feedback affect of increased vegetation, the removal of atmospheric carbon would be delayed.

This is not my bailiwick, I have never studied GW, just assumed it and worried about the worst effects. Until the California drought and current deluge caused me to reconsider my cherished beliefs :) I am a lot happier leaving that GW doomer camp, though I remain firmly ensconsed (and always will do so) in my peak oil doomer camp.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 25021
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby donstewart » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 19:18:31

@pstarr
On a frigid night in February a few years ago, a very well known climate scientist came to speak at our local university. He was unperturbed by the frozen tundra outside, and said that it was all just about rolling dice. Occasionally such things were bound to happen.

Well...what we have seen over the last 5 years is that the time interval between last freeze and first 85F day has shortened. We don't have proper springs anymore. We also don't have the previous 'rain every 3 days' which characterized our humid summer climate. We are currently in an official drought, and the temperature has been around 85 for a couple of weeks. About a month ago we had a couple of nights below freezing. This sort of climate is making it very hard to grow food. Farmers are having to spend more money on infrastructure designed to moderate the extremes.

There is a scientist at Rutgers (I forget the name) who has put forward the theory that the decrease in the difference between the Arctic and the Tropics is causing jet streams to get 'stuck'. They don't move regularly the way they used to. So we get persistent rain in California one year and the 'ridiculously persistent high pressure ridge' of other years which prevented rain from coming in from the Pacific. She sure sounds right in terms of what I observe. But I see quite a few scientists who cling to the 'dice' explanation.

If you look at the climate over geological time, you see that higher levels of carbon dioxide equate to higher temperatures, particularly at the poles, and much higher sea levels. And what we can observe today is the disintegration of ice at both poles. There is currently an astonishing breakup of an ice sheet at 80 degrees north in Greenland. The ice sheet is holding back a glacier which, if it slides into the ocean, will raise ocean levels quite substantially.

I don't doubt that climate is changing. I see it every day, and it causes me to have to work and spend money. What I do pretty much reject is the 'dice' theory. Fluid dynamics are a bitch to predict.

Don Stewart
donstewart
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 363
Joined: Fri 16 Sep 2016, 03:37:24

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby pstarr » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 19:49:33

Don, there is little doubt in my mind that climate is changing, perhaps a result of fossil fuel combustion. I just don't know anymore and I really don't much care. I am more than confident that the end of the oil age will put an end to that burning.
There's nothing deeper than love. In fairy tales, the princesses kiss the frogs, and the frogs become princes. In real life,the princesses kiss princes, and the princes turn into frogs

“Bitterness is like cancer. It eats upon the host. But anger is like fire. It burns it all clean.”
― Maya Angelou
pstarr
NeoMaster
NeoMaster
 
Posts: 25021
Joined: Mon 27 Sep 2004, 02:00:00
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby donstewart » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 20:30:27

@pstarr
It depends on who you are, how you are situated, and what you find interesting and challenging. Peak Oil and the collapse of Industrial Civilization in 2017 does not put a stop to the advance of global warming and the deleterious effect. I believe that sea levels were 20 meters or so higher the last time CO2 was 400 ppm. It takes a while to work out the effects. But if you are really serious about making a difference, then getting back to 260 ppm is where you need to focus.

Check out Albert Bates' blog posts from the earlier months of this year. The only really practical way to get back to 260 is to adopt a regenerative agriculture (including forests) and also to use biomass for energy and to make biochar as a side benefit. Albert says that the biomass strategy costs about 2 percent of the expected cost of industrial carbon reduction. With Peak Oil, I don't think society is going to be in any shape to adopt any industrial method of removing carbon.

But maybe you think that it is no big deal for humans to disappear. After all, the Earth has gone through high carbon, high temperature, elevated ocean levels before...they just didn't involve humans. Or, maybe, like me you spent the morning on the lawn at your local food co-op playing with amazing children and you hope to hell they have some future in store.

If you do want humans involved in the future, then getting involved in Albert's project in one way or another may give you a sense of purpose. Not a bad thing to have in these times.

Don Stewart
donstewart
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
 
Posts: 363
Joined: Fri 16 Sep 2016, 03:37:24

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 20:44:56

pstarr wrote:Global warming is a hoax ...


That's all you need to know about pstarr. He tries to play the "I used to be a doomer" card, but it hasn't been since he has been on PO. He is an unapologetic denier of the worst sort.

He has already been informed that any bump in primary production is temporary and the result of increased nitrogen deposition as a result of coal emissions from China and India.

Also as a result of these emissions, increases of sulfate particulate have had a masking effect on global warming.

Nitrogen fertilization of the biosphere only works where Primary Production has been restrained by nitrogen depletion. Studies have shown that once fertilization has taken place, additional fertilization DOES NOT increase Primary Production. And not just for nitrogen, but any other nutrient restraints on plant growth.

Once these emissions are curtailed by changes in energy sources away from coal, we will be hit by the delayed onset of warming and a decrease in primary production due to loss of surface water, excess heat, and drying.

Any carbon previously stored in the plants will quickly return to the atmosphere.
Last edited by Cid_Yama on Sun 16 Apr 2017, 21:08:28, edited 1 time in total.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
User avatar
Cid_Yama
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6697
Joined: Sun 27 May 2007, 02:00:00
Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian

Re: Runaway Global Warming - Has Arrived pt 14

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Sun 16 Apr 2017, 21:01:33

From 2009:

Greenhouse gases will heat up planet 'forever'
Global warming is forever, some of the world's top climate scientists have concluded. Their research shows that carbon dioxide emitted from today's homes, cars and factories will continue to heat up the planet for hundreds of thousands of years.

It comes as a shock because most governments, and even many scientists, have assumed that carbon dioxide emissions would work their way out of the atmosphere in about a century, enabling it to clean itself fairly rapidly once the world switched to clean sources of energy.

But one of the main researchers – Professor David Archer of Chicago University – warns that "the climatic impacts of releasing fossil fuel carbon dioxide into the atmosphere will last longer than Stonehenge, longer than time capsules, far longer than the age of human civilisation so far. Ultimate recovery takes place on timescales of hundreds of thousands of years, a geologic longevity typically associated in public perceptions with nuclear waste."

Carbon dioxide mainly leaves the atmosphere by being soaked up by the oceans, but Professor Archer says that "the pervasive notion in the climate science community and in the public at large" that this happens relatively quickly is no longer valid. He and other leading scientists spell out why in a paper to be published in the journal Annual Reviews of Earth and Planetary Sciences.

"The ocean is getting fed up with absorbing our CO2," he says. The surface waters, about 100 metres deep, which used to sop up the gas quite fast, are now getting saturated with it – turning acid in the process – and so decreasing their uptake. They need to be replaced with fresh water from deep down, but this overturning circulation "takes centuries or a millennium". And global warming is expected to slow this down: the hotter the surface layer becomes, the longer the replenishment takes.

Indeed, the forthcoming paper will add, research shows that even this renewing process will not be enough to remove all the vast amounts of carbon dioxide that humanity is now adding to the atmosphere. Much of it will have to wait hundreds of thousands of years before being removed by another, infinitely slower, process: the natural weathering of rocks, which incorporates the gas into other substances. And the more pollution that is emitted now, the worse this will become.

link


Atmospheric Lifetime of Fossil Fuel Carbon Dioxide
The models presented here give a broadly coherent picture of the fate of fossil fuel CO2 released into the atmosphere. Equilibration with the ocean will absorb most of it on a timescale of 2 to 20 centuries. Even if this equilibration were allowed to run to completion, a substantial fraction of the CO2, 20–40%, would remain in the atmosphere awaiting slower chemical reactions with CaCO3 and igneous rocks. The remaining CO2 is abundant enough to continue to have a substantial impact on climate for thousands of years. The changes in climate amplify themselves somewhat by driving CO2 out of the warmer ocean. The CO2 invasion has acidified the ocean, the pH of which is largely restored by excess dissolution of CaCO3 from the sea floor and on land and, ultimately, by silicate weathering on land. The recovery of ocean pH restores the ocean’s buffer capacity to absorb CO2, tending to pull CO2 toward lower concentrations over the next 10,000 years. The land biosphere has its greatest impact within the first few centuries, which is when CO2 peaks. Nowhere in these model results or in the published literature is there any reason to conclude that the effects of CO2 release will be substantially confined to just a few centuries. In contrast, generally accepted modern understanding of the global carbon cycle indicates that climate effects of CO2 releases to the atmosphere will persist for tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of years into the future.

link
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
User avatar
Cid_Yama
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 6697
Joined: Sun 27 May 2007, 02:00:00
Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian

PreviousNext

Return to Environment

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests