pstarr wrote:Did you predict $147/bbl oil for 2008.
"yeah, but, well, except it is not my job"
"Ron Patterson made me do it"
any other excuses for missing the boat? Did you go long? How many tanker fulls?
No, I don't think one can reliably make short term calls in the markets. However, keeping my eyes open, I sold two thirds of my long position in oil stocks (which I'd been gradually accumulating for about 15 years) very near the top, and gleefully bought them all back (and more) at about a third of the price in early 2009.
And yeah, that means I blew it on the other third. I call that risk control and playing the odds, since I can't see the future.
It is possible to pay attention, consider things in the context of history, and make some money, even if you don't work as a "self proclaimed 'expert' investment advisory blogger".
