AdamB wrote:aldente wrote:apparently Mr. Hubbards rock oil shortage as predicted in the 1950's did not take place in time - leaves us all with one specific conclusion:
oil is not the remnant of "Sinclair Oil" dinosaur left over -semi plastic- indigestible somemthn` somethn..
the theory in itself is correct !
Which theory? The one Hubbert used to predict peak oil by 1950 in the US, or later when he used a theory to predict that the world would peak at 12 billion barrels a year? Somewhere in the last century?
ROCKMAN wrote:Why would Hubbert be thinking about a "rock oil shortage" in the US when we had so much to export that Texas could control the global price? LOL.
ROCKMAN wrote: In Hubbert's case the population his projection was built from the known (and rather mature) US oil trends AT THAT TIME.
Rockman wrote:If you actually read his report he specifically says his bell shaped curve DOES NOT INCLUDE yet to be developed oil trends.
aldente wrote:Meaning - we all made a fool of ourselves by believing in Peak Oil in the first place - the Gauss bell equation obviously stays stable but the darn parameters that were fed in the specific equation were faulty-
aldente wrote:Who did this ?
Was this a deliberate misfeed?
ROCKMAN wrote:Aldente - Let me address the supposed Hubbert prediction of a "rock oil shortage" more directly. In the 1950's a shortage of oil in the US was the last thing on his mind when he made his prediction of our PO in 1971.
ROCKMAN wrote:you don't know what you don't know until you discover what you don't know.
ROCKMAN wrote:In probability theory, the normal (or Gaussian) distribution is a very common continuous probability distribution. The normal distribution is a subclass of the elliptical distributions. The normal distribution is symmetric about its mean.
There you go...needed only three. LOL. And does a good job of explaining how the term "bell-shaped curve" is misused since a symetrtical curve of natural data is rarely symmetric. Especially in the world of hydrocarbon reservoir size and production rates. Not sure if tghat addresses your issues since you really didn't make it clear what they might be.
rockdoc123 wrote:Rockman is correct in stating that nature tends to follow log-normal rather than normal or Gaussian distributions.
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