Roads Post Peak

[dorlomin]

While engineering, manufacturing and assembling a modern metal bicycle might at first seem like a rather simple enterprise; I couldn't imagine any one person right off hand that could accomplish the task.

Well thats you and your imagination. I have known dozens of fitters who could do the job, certainly up to the standards of a basic frame (not hollow). The biggest issue in terms of metal would be drawing the wire for cables, but that is an art that has been around for well over a century.

FWIW a mate of mine made his own bike frame from bamboo.


God alone knows what kind of world people are imagining where you cant get a decent lathe set up.

[Lore]

A frame does not a bicycle make. You only have to imagine a world with no or limited electrical service to get the idea.

[dorlomin]

A frame does not a bicycle make.

Duh.

You only have to imagine a world with no or limited electrical service to get the idea.

Even then you are wrong.

PO.com is full of people who know what cannot be done, but have never spent any time in a workshop surrounded by competant fitters.

But they are certain they are right. I guess they have a better imagination than me.

[Lore]

A frame does not a bicycle make.

Duh.

You only have to imagine a world with no or limited electrical service to get the idea.

Even then you are wrong.

PO.com is full of people who know what cannot be done, but have never spent any time in a workshop surrounded by competant fitters.

But they are certain they are right. I guess they have a better imagination than me.

Excuse me, I personally know many, it's been my life's career, most all of them could not function outside of their present experience.

[Beery]

The bicycle was invented in the 1860s. The world of the 1860s did not have widely available cheap energy, electricity or mass production: it was a world powered by coal or wood. But it was an industrial era: the city of London had a population of 3 million. Anyone who thinks a post-oil world will regress to a pre-industrial state is fooling himself.

Besides, we do not need even 19th Century equipment to build a bicycle:

[Lore]

Had an opportunity to see the movie "War Horse" the other day. Pretty good flick by the way. I'd love to see a calvery charge across open ground on bicycles.

[dolanbaker]

Interesting to see that this thread has changed from "post peak" as in having less fuel than is available now, to "post fuel" like in no fuel at all, otherwise why would only bicycles be discussed!

Post peak to me simply means less traffic, more public transport, small engined cars and far fewer SUV types.

[ObiWan]

Post peak to me simply means less traffic, more public transport, small engined cars and far fewer SUV types.

Peak oil happened in 2005.

It would be nice if it did mean less oil, and less traffic.

[dolanbaker]

Post peak to me simply means less traffic, more public transport, small engined cars and far fewer SUV types.

Peak oil happened in 2005.

It would be nice if it did mean less oil, and less traffic.

It does, just the drop in traffic volume is still above congestion rates in many places and getting worse in the BRICS nations because they are growing at the expense of the OECD countries who are reducing their consumption. A few more Percent in the drop in oil supply and the affects will become VERY noticeable when the peak time congestion all but disappears from many of the current "pinch points".

[ObiWan]

A few more Percent in the drop in oil supply and the affects will become VERY noticeable when the peak time congestion all but disappears from many of the current "pinch points".

The sooner we see these peak oil effects, the better. Surely less congestion and travel will also affect the roads, they will require less maintenance and upkeep, maybe bicycles can get a fair shake in terms of the lane access they are given (and people will stop running the poor buggers over) and subsidies will head in that direction instead of buy this car, buy that car advertisements we are bombarded with so often.

[Lore]

It's a conundrum, since much of our highway system is maintained through taxes placed on gasoline and diesel. It's a use-tax scheme. The less gas/diesel fuel used, the less taxes for maintenance and improvements. In order to support our present system of roads, new taxes would need to be levied on non-fossil fuel burning transportation. A post Peak Oil world would then either have to do with less roads, or work out some new tax structure which has the possibility of penalizing those who might use or need less transportation.

[dolanbaker]

It's a conundrum, since much of our highway system is maintained through taxes placed on gasoline and diesel. It's a use-tax scheme. The less gas/diesel fuel used, the less taxes for maintenance and improvements. In order to support our present system of roads, new taxes would need to be levied on non-fossil fuel burning transportation. A post Peak Oil world would then either have to do with less roads, or work out some new tax structure which has the possibility of penalizing those who might use or need less transportation.

A tax based on vehicle axle weight would be the fairest due to the simple fact that a fully loaded lorry axle would easily place a load of 6 tonnes onto the road, a car axle would be about 3/4 of a tonne.
One lorry will do more damage to a weak road surface that about 100 cars!

[Lore]

It's a conundrum, since much of our highway system is maintained through taxes placed on gasoline and diesel. It's a use-tax scheme. The less gas/diesel fuel used, the less taxes for maintenance and improvements. In order to support our present system of roads, new taxes would need to be levied on non-fossil fuel burning transportation. A post Peak Oil world would then either have to do with less roads, or work out some new tax structure which has the possibility of penalizing those who might use or need less transportation.

A tax based on vehicle axle weight would be the fairest due to the simple fact that a fully loaded lorry axle would easily place a load of 6 tonnes onto the road, a car axle would be about 3/4 of a tonne.
One lorry will do more damage to a weak road surface that about 100 cars!

We're talking about a "post peak world". We already charge higher taxes using this formula. Most likely vehicles, like the bicycle, would be charged a yearly license fee that would include a stout tax to be applied towards roads.

[dolanbaker]

Post peak means less oil than today not none, ICE vehicles will be around for several decades more, just in ever decreasing numbers.

[Lore]

Post peak means less oil than today not none, ICE vehicles will be around for several decades more, just in ever decreasing numbers.

This is true, just less of them to pay for the roads they use.

[dolanbaker]

This is true, just less of them to pay for the roads they use.

Maintenance standards will simply decline to match the income the busy roads will operate with slower speed limits to preserve the surface or in some cases, be simply abandoned.

[AgentR11]

Maintenance standards will simply decline to match the income the busy roads will operate with slower speed limits to preserve the surface or in some cases, be simply abandoned.

slower??? lol

Not my experience in backwater Mexico. The more holes, the faster you go. Add bigger tires for bigger boom and more fun.

[Beery]

Peak oil happened in 2005.

It would be nice if it did mean less oil, and less traffic.

We've only had one oil shock since then. The truth hasn't had much chance to really hit the markets yet. Give it time. We probably need a couple more oil bubbles and busts before the market catches on.

Anyway, I've never believed that cars will be a thing of the past. There will always be a few people able to afford gasoline and a few more will find alternative fueled vehicles affordable. Some others will keep cars purely for occasional long journeys. But when gasoline is the equivalent of $10+/gallon in today's money, we'll see quite a change: people will stop using their cars for frivolous commutes and they'll switch to the bicycle for short journeys and/or move closer to work. Local farming will become profitable. But people are not likely to go out and buy a horse and start living as we did in the 1600s, despite what some folks here are saying.

One thing is certain - unless a big meteor strikes the Earth, a post apocalyptic wasteland is not in my future. Probably not in my daughter's future either. Those hoping for the end of age of oil to come with a major downgrade in lifestyle within the next century are living in la-la-land.

[centaurian_slug]

But people are not likely to go out and buy a horse and start living as we did in the 1600s, despite what some folks here are saying.

correct because there isn't enough land per person for people to live like we did in the 1600's. we will have over 10x the population competing for depleted resources compared to the 1600's.

One thing is certain - unless a big meteor strikes the Earth, a post apocalyptic wasteland is not in my future. Probably not in my daughter's future either.

Won't need to go back far for it to feel like a post apocalyptic wasteland, relative to expectations. we are used to perpetual progress for as long as we can remember. even just stabilizing would come as a shock.

and there are places on earth which are already being turned into post apocalyptic wastelands, just because it isn't your backyard yet doesn't mean it won't catch up with you. One city at a time, one country at a time...

Those hoping for the end of age of oil to come with a major downgrade in lifestyle within the next century are living in la-la-land.

we aren't hoping for it, we know it will.
americans (only 4.5% of the worlds population) have a lot of "low hanging fruit" in oil efficiency but in the rest of the world it's about basic survival much sooner. food & water are the problems, not adapting to life without private cars (thats' easy)

[anador]

One thing is certain, whatever happens, the greatest change in our transportation regime will be the increasing use of the mode of transport built right in. Our Feet.

The conclusion that everyone will own horses "like the 1600s" is flawed because not everyone owned them in the 1600's. A horse was an asset that a small fraction of people owned.

When people needed to move things long distances they would generally hire a horse or cart.

Far flung farmers had to own horses and mules just like industrial farmers need tractors, that doesnt mean that everyone owned one.

Towns were and will again be compact dense places, where everyone must access all daily needs on foot. Consequently the amount of road actually required to service is much reduced, as the blocks get smaller and the buildings close together.