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Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby donstewart » Sat 27 May 2017, 10:40:00

@Cog
Why would you think I would care about your characterization of doomers? I'm just interested in the charts put up by some guys selling catalysts to refineries....Don Stewart
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 27 May 2017, 13:34:51

"...found some charts. They seem to suggest". The world is full of charts from multiple sources. Often with conflicting information. Not difficult to find one to supports a person's erroneous position. My approach is to find a source of CREDIBLE unedited data which is why the EIA is usually my first choice. No one yet has offered any alternative CREDIBLE SOURCE that has refuted a single EIA data set.

IMHO if you post charts, etc. from any source YOU ARE RESPONSIBLE for defending it. If that chart is proven to be a misrepresentation or even complete bullsh*t claiming that you're not responsible because "they said it" is also complete bullsh*t IMHO. LOL.

I presented data from the EIA (which no one has proven invalid) that proves any claim that US motor fuel yields have suffered as a result of increased light oil production from the shales IS COMPLETE BULLSH*T.

Is that said simple enough to be understood?

Perhaps all the CREDIBLE DATA I presented was too much to absorb for folks to participate in a " food fight". LOL.
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby donstewart » Sat 27 May 2017, 13:58:51

@Rockman
So everyone who posts a chart and asks for comments is supposed to be an expert on the content of the chart?

Sorry to have bothered you...Don Stewart
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby marmico » Sat 27 May 2017, 17:47:42

The oil assay is more important than its specific gravity for purposes of the refinery distillation cut.

Image

The VGO cut is further processed in the crackers to make distillate or gasoline.

Image
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 27 May 2017, 21:12:22

asg70 wrote:


11 years later and quite prescient, except for his shout-out to biofuels.


Yeah, JD was WAY out in front of the curve on this one. Some other folks around here didn't put together such a contemporaneous blog, but I've noted before that Mr Rockman, Mr Reserve, and Mr Abundance all figured pieces of the puzzle out before it actually happened.

But JD has most of the basics pinned down WAY early.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 27 May 2017, 21:15:31

donstewart wrote:@Adam B
see the above response to Rockman. I found some charts. They seem to suggest something. So far, nobody has explained to me why my understanding of the charts is wrong, nor how the charts are somehow 'fake'.


I didn't investigate your charts, only the last source you utilized that included a known advocate.

donstewart wrote:If you want me to dig into the EIA and other data, you have got the wrong guy.


Indeed. I can pick up the phone and talk to those guys all by myself.

donstewart wrote: As I told Rockman, I used to analyze certain types of data which mostly had nothing to do with refineries. I know how slippery statistics can be. It would take me a long time to develop expertise in refinery statistics. I don't intend to devote the time and energy to it.

I will content myself with pointing at stuff which 'seems to indicate' something.

Don Stewart


Well then, keep up the good work! But do try and avoid references that are from zealots, advocates, doomers, or the generally oil-ignorant. Or if you MUST use these kinds of sources, try and focus on a real point they made, rather than implying that you might have taken their bait hook, line and sinker.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 27 May 2017, 21:21:24

ROCKMAN wrote:"...found some charts. They seem to suggest". The world is full of charts from multiple sources. Often with conflicting information. Not difficult to find one to supports a person's erroneous position. My approach is to find a source of CREDIBLE unedited data which is why the EIA is usually my first choice. No one yet has offered any alternative CREDIBLE SOURCE that has refuted a single EIA data set.


Indeed. And in addition to their data, they didn't fall for peak oil like the IEA did, back when it was claimed to have happened.

Nice ol' shot of credibility to government analysts and our tax dollars at work, that one.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby donstewart » Sun 28 May 2017, 04:32:03

@marmico
Thanks for the assay chart. I noticed in an article from Statoil that they listed about 25 different oils with their assays. Does Statoil sell blends of these oils to refineries? Which would help the refiner achieve the chemical results they want without having to stock all the different oils.

Just curiosity on my part. Don't go to any work to find the answer.
Thanks....Don Stewart
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby donstewart » Sun 28 May 2017, 06:51:39

2006 Article; Robert Hirsch
The article from 2006 points out how flexibly humans can behave to rise to any challenge in terms of Peak Oil. If a flexible response is practicable, then it doesn’t make sense to view Peak Oil as some Systemic Challenge.

Let me go back to the only ASPO event I had anything to do with. It was about a decade ago in Washington, DC. There were all kinds of people there pushing all kinds of solutions: local food systems, solar and wind, conversion of food crops to perennials, gas replacing oil, nuclear, and so forth. The cold water that I remember was the Robert Hirsch talk. Hirsch was of the opinion that if we were going to change, we needed to have started 20 years earlier. But his consulting company had also looked at solutions such as the rationing which had been used in WWII, and found it to be completely unworkable. So the fundamental dilemma was that, yes, we needed to begin a change, but no, it couldn’t be accomplished by government regulations, and finally, oil was the best primary energy source humans had ever discovered and anything else was going to be less valuable. So voluntary change was likely to be scarce.

Even further back, in the early 1980s I was getting a mid-life MBA. One of our teachers was teaching us ‘environmental strategy’. He said that most all environmental disputes revolved around the value of assets…not about restrictions which might merely affect the ability to do something in the future. Thus, if a town adopts zoning for vacant property which precludes it use as an oil refinery, the person doing the complaining is likely to be the landowner, not companies who are interested in building refineries. We studied one case where the issue was effluent from paper mills. There were two existing paper mills, one in Maine and the other on the Strait of Juan de Fuca between Washington State and Victoria, BC. Everyone had to admit that the effluents were noxious. So the question became: are the mills required to reduce effluent or are the mills allowed to simply dilute the effluent. Not surprisingly, the Maine mill argued for reduced effluent, while the Washington mill argued for allowing dilution…because trillions of gallons of seawater sloshed by the Washington site every day. The Maine mill won, largely because of the influence of Senator Muskie from Maine. If the Washington ‘dilution’ argument had won, the value of the Maine mill would have promptly sunk to zero. Asset value carried the day.

Since 2006, and the ASPO meeting, the world has continued to dig the same hole deeper.
Debt to GDP has increased from 170 percent to 325 percent.
CO2 in the atmosphere has increased from roughly 370ppm to 410ppm.
Cars have been replaced with SUVs.
Green buildings still don’t sell.
The Central Banks have inflated agricultural land prices (now collapsing) to make subsistence farming impossible or at least very hard. Ethanol is still subsidized, diverting land to corn.
The Central Banks have inflated asset values by driving interest rates to zero. Pension plan assets have suffered and pensions are insolvent.

It’s hard not to think that the cold water thrown by Robert Hirsch was prescient.

On the positive side, science has progressed since 2006. We now know a lot more about human well-being. I have pointed to the Barrett book on Emotions. If pleasant emotions are an important goal in life, then we now know a lot more about how to achieve that than we did back in 2006.

What about the continuing information revolution? Some things are better. I was working on a small farm in 2006. We did not use cell phones. Now practically all small farmers carry cell phones, and they are helpful. I am sure that people who drive around in vans servicing things have become wedded to cell phones. But on the downside, cell phones have proliferated advertisements and seem to be destroying some of our basic human assets, such as interpersonal skills and empathy.

I happened to watch the 1995 movie Beautiful Girls recently. The cast was all the bright young people in Hollywood in the mid-1990s. It’s a complex story, but one notable rant is by Rosie O’Donnell leading a couple of guys into the corner grocery store and opening a Penthouse Magazine. She points out that the models they drool over are constructed of plastic. If, against all odds, they did manage to hook-up with one of the models, they would likely become bored with them very quickly. One of the men looks lasciviously at the model and says, ‘yeah, after 20 or 30 years I might get a little bored’. A completely different way of looking at a sexual partner (from the male perspective) is that here is a woman with an amazing sexual capacity which involves that mysterious thing that women do: multiple orgasms. It might be really rewarding to make a life with a woman and help her exercise that capacity. (Since 2006, we have also discovered that orgasms are very good for us.)

But any glance at popular media shows that most men are still thinking of women about like the guys looking at the Penthouse magazine back in 1995. So the potential for an authentic, low fossil fuel, engagement is not being reached. Instead, we still have trophy girl friends and wives and big cars and bigger houses and parties in the Hamptons.

Consequently, an article from 2006 saying that Peak Oil is wrong because we are flexible and smart human beings who can cope with anything has not been proven. The evidence so far is much more consistent with the Robert Hirsch message.

Don Stewart
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby donstewart » Sun 28 May 2017, 07:08:08

Credit Card Debt
One more things which seems to be much worse than 2006: credit card debt. There was a report recently from an insurance company that most Americans are now spending 50 percent of their income on credit card debt each month. We can finagle the numbers, but the fact remains that most Americans don't have a lot of financial flexibility...they 'owe their soul to the company store'.

We have learned since 2006 that the perception of Scarcity is a strong deterrent to willingness to change. When people are struggling to pay the company store, they don't want to hear about innovative, low-carbon solutions which might cost them more money.

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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby marmico » Sun 28 May 2017, 08:05:03

Image

The credit card serious delinquency rate is the lowest this century. Other than student loan debt, household debt servicing seems okay.

http://preview.tinyurl.com/yb9v5grs
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 28 May 2017, 08:11:50

Don - Norway info. Directly from Statoil:

https://www.statoil.com/en/what-we-do/c ... ssays.html

"The crude oils that Statoil sells are mostly high-quality grades of medium to high API, with a low sulphur content. Here, we provide details of the crude and condensate qualities that we sell."

Notice much of their production is 40°+ API. Also I couldn't find a direct reference to the typical API of the blended oil the refine. At least not in English. LOL. But given ExxonMobil is the biggest refinery in Norway I'm pretty sure it's very similar to the US.

"ExxonMobil’s refinery at Slagentangen near Tønsberg, inaugurated in 1961, is located in a sheltered location by the Oslo Fjord...The production of petroleum products represents more than half of Norway’s total consumption. The lightest products are propane and butane, followed by petrol, kerosene, diesel and light fuel oil. The heaviest product is heavy oil."

As I pointed out before US refineries rarely buy any of the various different oils directly from us producers...domestic and imported. Those oils are bought by companies you have probably never heard. They blend the different oils and that's what the refineries buy.
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby donstewart » Sun 28 May 2017, 08:29:42

More short notes on the possible.

Albert Bates with a hopeful note from London about ‘those in the halls of power with frightening knowledge’:
http://peaksurfer.blogspot.com/2017/05/ ... power.html

A cautionary tale from Virginia, outlining Joel Salatin’s trials and tribulations trying to sell his new book to his evangelical Christian compatriots:
https://www.peakprosperity.com/podcast/ ... magination

Now I would like to observe first that the people gathered in the luxurious house in London are not feeling any personal sense of Scarcity. Even the leaders of island nations disappearing beneath the waves can get on airplanes and go somewhere else. But the evangelicals who are the primary target audience for Salatin’s book on regenerative agriculture and authentic living are those very same people who ‘owe their soul to the company store’. When Salatin criticizes their churches for including meals at Chick-Fil-A in youth events, they feel trapped. They know, at some level, that raising chickens that way is evil, but they also have a very deep need to believe that they are the selected children of God. And that is why 1000 out of 1000 evangelical ministers refused to write a blurb for Joel’s book. I believe the problem is worse now than in 2006.

So, yes, some elites get the message. But down in the trenches, the battle looks different.

Does our new knowledge of how emotions are formed help us change the direction of the world? I don’t know. What I do know is that our new knowledge underscores the idea that the evangelicals (and all the rest of us) have to be dealt with as a whole entity. All of their experiences are put into play by the brain circuits which make and monitor actions, including the making of emotions. Those experiences somehow have to be structured so that ‘doing the right thing by chickens’ or ‘regenerating the earth' plays a much stronger role. If you are a pessimist, you simply conclude that we understand better why it is so hard to change.

Don Stewart
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby donstewart » Sun 28 May 2017, 09:46:46

Owing Soul to Company Store
Found the article. Many people on a treadmill. Doubtless feeling Scarcity….Don Stewart

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-05-0 ... card-debts

Therefore, it's not difficult to believe, as Northwestern Mutual points out, that 45% of Americans spend up to half of their monthly take home pay on debt service alone....which, again, excludes mortgage debt.
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby Cog » Sun 28 May 2017, 10:18:44

You left out the best part Don. About 40% of that debt is entirely self-inflicted and spent on leisure and hobbies. If they are desperate, then its entirely their own fault.
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby Sys1 » Sun 28 May 2017, 11:01:09

Peak oil crashed the economy back in 2008. As we are in the middle of this slow collapse, many of us, just like the frog slowly cooked in the pan, are not seeing what is just in front of our eyes :
- People now have difficulties finding good jobs and finding a house.
- Global warming seems to be exponential and not linear. Heat waves happen every years on every continents, and those heat waves are worse.
- National Debt is going exponential since countries decide to rebuy all the junk assets from crashed real estate banks.
- Waves of people from Africa (and also east Europe) are coming in Western Europe, I see many of them next to Paris, where I live.
- Culture is going down. Many tv-reality craziness, childrens playing stupid games and watching porn on smartphones, cinema unable to product anything but the same movie remade again and again(Alien 5 or 6? Starwars 8 or 9?)
- We are 7.5 billions on Earth
- All medias are in the hands of Financial criminals who force the population/institution to follow neoliberalism rules and never critisize "Growth".
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 28 May 2017, 11:16:20

Wow, good Synapses by Sys of some of the vexing issues in front of us. Remember, also environmental problems do not exist in a vacuum. Climate change already seems to be further destabilizing vulnerable areas such as Africa and Middle East causing further refugee dilemmas. . Climate change is also burdening some countries with additional expenses of cleanup and restoration. I just am seeing little reason for optimism given the gauntlet of challenges and worsening trajectory of economic/environmental problems.
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 28 May 2017, 12:47:57

Sys - "Peak oil crashed the economy back in 2008." Global oil production was around 82 mm bopd in 2008 according to the EIA. Today it exceeds 92 mm bopd.

So PO in 2008???
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby donstewart » Sun 28 May 2017, 13:25:54

@cog
'entirely their own fault'
That's not a very good way to look at it, in my opinion. If you will read Barrett's book, you will find that children learn to construct emotions based on experiences with the world around them. In effect, the society the children have grown up in has taught them dependence. Their environment, from the womb to adulthood, has probably also stunted their mental growth.

If we want to change things for the better, we face the daunting task of changing the way the world we have created works. Sermons aren't likely to be very effective.

Don Stewart
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Re: Reuters: "World refiners are CLOGGED with oil"

Unread postby Midnight Oil » Sun 28 May 2017, 13:28:57

Boy, some folks here obviously work at the "Ministry of Truth" and like to rehash their twist and spin to the maximum. Saw it myself for many years "debating" among the denialist on the issue of AGW....
Same formula being used in this forum utilizing the technique of creating doubt and confusion. All originated by the Tobacco PR lobbyists and just morphed for other equally desperate Industries to ensure the "Show must go on".
Yes, There is no direct proof cigarettes cause cancer, no direct proof that fossil fuel emissions cause Warming...oh sorry only lukewarming...nothing to be concerned about...no concern on the oil industry and what they are grasping to formulated as " oil" and the means to refine the goo....
The bottom line is the deciding factor....no matter what extreme measures that are taken to keep the pipes flowing..
Some folks commenting here actually they can fool everyone with their speal,
Sorry, to disappoint.
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