[KaiserJeep]

Apologies for the truncated title - the original did not fit on the subject line:

A Renewables Revolution Is Toppling the Dominance of Fossil Fuels in U.S. Power

By Joe Ryan

February 3, 2016 — 9:01 PM PST Updated on February 4, 2016 — 1:59 PM PST

Renewable energy was the biggest source of new power added to U.S. electricity grids last year as falling prices and government incentives made wind and solar increasingly viable alternatives to fossil fuels.

Developers installed 16 gigawatts of clean energy in 2015, or 68 percent of all new capacity, Bloomberg New Energy Finance said in its Sustainable Energy in America Factbook released Thursday with the Business Council for Sustainable Energy. That was the second straight year that clean power eclipsed fossil fuels.

Summary of what this is about: http://www.bcse.org/wp-content/uploads/BCSE_Infographic_final.pdf and

http://www.bcse.org/wp-content/uploads/BCSE-2016-Sustainable-Energy-in-America-Factbook-Brochure.pdf

The original article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-04/renewables-top-fossil-fuels-as-biggest-source-of-new-u-s-power

Moderators, I ask for a degree of indulgence. This is not a commercial link in the sense that they ask you to buy the material. But if you want access to the full document, they will collect your name and E-mail address, which I gave them. I have no doubt I will pay the price in SPAM.

The "factbook" is a 157 page color PDF, full of text, charts, and tables. The 25% or so I have read thus far is worthy of attention.

[hvacman]

I am glad to see that renewables generation continues to grow.The problem is that articles like this tend to confuse the public about the true relative contribution of new renewables generation capacity vs new conventional capacity. They frequently fail to clarify that that a kilowatt of PV/wind capacity does not equal of kilowatt of conventional generation capacity.

Dispatch-ability is one problem. The grid managers can't send out a power request to a PV or wind plant to ramp up to help meet a grid power demand requirement, any time, day or night, winter or summer. Renewable power is still subject to the whims of nature. Major upgrades in energy storage must be made coincident with renewable power upgrades to provide the RE its true value. If anything, I would find articles on new installed energy storage kW and kW-hr capacity to be as-important a measure of the new contributions of the RE energy industry.

Second, KILOWATT power generation capacity doe not equal annual KILOWATT-HOUR energy generation capacity. The article said ""the biggest source of new power added to U.S. electricity grids". But the public (and sometimes even authors) frequently conflate "power" with "energy". BIG DIFFERENCE. The utilization ratio of PV is about 25% and wind, depending on site, is maybe 30%. Granted, 68% of power capacity was renewable, but the 32% of conventional power capacity installed still will be generating more than 60% of the new annual electrical energy requirement vs 40% for the new RE generator. To have the same energy generating capacity as conventional, RE must install 3-4x the power capacity.

[sunweb]

Unless there is a magic wand, these "renewables" need the fossil fuel supply system and the global industrial infrastructure to be made, maintained, and supply the tools and toys that we want the electricity for.
All the human-made things in our world have an industrial history. Behind the computer, the T-shirt, the vacuum cleaner is an industrial infrastructure fired by energy (fossil fuels mainly). Each component of our car or refrigerator has an industrial history. Mainly unseen and out of mind, this global industrial infrastructure touches every aspect of our lives. It pervades our daily living from the articles it produces, to its effect on the economy and employment, as well as its effects on the environment.
Solar and wind energy collecting devices have an industrial history. It is important to understand the industrial infrastructure underwritten by fossil fuels and the environmental results for the components of the solar energy collecting devices so we don’t designate them with false labels such as green, renewable or sustainable.
This is an essay challenging ‘business as usual’. If we teach people that these solar devices are the future of energy without teaching the whole system, we mislead, misinform and create false hopes and beliefs.
I have provided both charts and videos from the industries themselves for the solar cells, modules, aluminum from ore, aluminum from recycling, aluminum extrusion, inverters, batteries and copper.
Please note each piece of machinery you see in each of the videos has its own industrial interconnection and history.
http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2015/04/so ... cture.html

[sunweb]

Many living at the top of energy consumption pyramid fervently believe there is a green, sustainable, renewable clean energy available for our future. Much of this belief is founded in the fervent wish to maintain a significant aspect of our present energy way of life. To foster and support this belief, a couple of parables help us understand how factual this might be.

STREETLIGHT EFFECT
A policeman sees a drunk man searching for something under a streetlight and asks what the drunk has lost. He says he lost his keys and they both look under the streetlight together. After a few minutes the policeman asks if he is sure he lost them here, and the drunk replies, no, and that he lost them in the park. The policeman asks why he is searching here, and the drunk replies, "This is where the light is.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Streetlight_effect

This parable offers several insights. First the obvious, that we look where it is easiest to see. But there is I believe a deeper lesson, that we look where we want to see.

This second parable adds a second dimension to seeing the truth concerning green, sustainable and renewable devices for the future.


ELEPHANT AND THE BLIND MEN
Once upon a time, there lived six blind men in a village. One day the villagers told them, "Hey, there is an elephant in the village today."
They had no idea what an elephant was. They decided, "Even though we would not be able to see it, let us go and feel it anyway." All of them went where the elephant was. Everyone of them touched the elephant.

"Hey, the elephant is a pillar," said the first man who
touched his leg.

"Oh, no! it is like a rope," said the second man who touched
the tail.

"Oh, no! it is like a thick branch of a tree," said the third man who touched the trunk of the elephant.
"It is like a big hand fan" said the fourth man who touched the ear of the elephant.
"It is like a huge wall," said the fifth man who touched the belly of the elephant.
"It is like a solid pipe," Said the sixth man who touched the tusk of the elephant.
They began to argue about the elephant and everyone of them insisted that he was right. It looked like they were getting agitated. A
wise man was passing by and he saw this. He stopped and asked them, "What is the matter?" They said, "We cannot agree to what
the elephant is like." Each one of them told what he thought the elephant was like. The wise man calmly explained to them, "All of
you are right. The reason every one of you is telling it differently because each one of you touched the different part of the elephant.
So, actually the elephant has all those features what you all said."
www.jainworld.com/literature/story25.htm

Clearly a primary lesson of this parable is the need to see the whole picture.
More at: http://sunweber.blogspot.com/2015/12/gr ... nable.html

[KaiserJeep]

I understand the nature of intermittent power sources, distributed generation, and the need for large scale - and cheap - energy storage before we can replace a significant amount of the FF power plants (I am a retired Electrical Engineer with a solar PV roof system I have had for 5 years).

Still, I find that having FF power shrinking as part of the total - and having natural gas displacing coal in existing FF power plants - is a good thing for the air we breathe. I also think that the slow cumulation of wind and solar generating capacity is a good thing - and the fact that both solar and wind generate power during the daylight hours matches the demand which is also greatest during the day. Lastly, having nuclear energy - the safest power generating tech on the planet - finally growing again is a goodness.

If I were to note any shortcoming of the report, they failed to note that nuclear power is not carbon-free - because liquid fuels are used in the mining of uranium ore, and electricity (now about equally sourced from coal, gas, and "other" including nuclear and renewables) is used in the refining of such ores into fissionable fuel.

[StarvingLion]

Renewables are The No Real World Order!

Paper Lawyer/Economist/Political Scientists telling Paper Engineers to...

TURN THE DIRTY COAL PLANTS OFF SO WE CAN BREATHE CLEAN AIR

So Coal Plants get turned off. Then eventually...

THE LIGHTS GO OFF

Mayhem in the streets. Then eventually...

CURRENCY COLLAPSE

You just lost the war. Welcome to the Firing Squads suckers.

Why don't you pseudo's stop your juvenile fake solutions and face up to reality:

LACK OF MORAL AUTHORITY TO USE FUSION WEAPONS

Every other path leads straight to the ghetto.

[StarvingLion]

People, the Energy Problem has just been solved!!!

The cough cough...uh ahem...the ELDERS...yes thats what we shall call them...

HAVE DONE IT AGAIN!

Here it is...blind doomers...salvation has cometh...

http://pubs.acs.org/doi/pdf/10.1021/acs ... tt.5b04813

Perfect Photon-to-Hydrogen Conversion Efficiency

Schulich Faculty of Chemistry, Technion−Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa 32000, Israel
Nano Lett., Article ASAP
DOI: 10.1021/acs.nanolett.5b04813
Publication Date (Web): January 20, 2016

"We report a record 100% photon-to-hydrogen production efficiency, under visible light illumination, for the photocatalytic water-splitting reduction half-reaction. This result was accomplished by utilization of nanoparticle-based photocatalysts, composed of Pt-tipped CdSe@CdS rods, with a hydroxyl anion–radical redox couple operating as a shuttle to relay the holes. The implications of such record efficiency for the prospects of realizing practical over all water splitting and solar-to-fuel energy conversion are discussed."

pstarr just collapsed...Ron "Decline of Civilization is a Lead Pipe Cinch" Patterson just said "So your only hope is to put your full faith and trust in our fiat currency. There is no alternative other than total collapse". Oh my god, The ELDERS say Perfect Hydrogen Economy, Ronnie says Fuggetaboutit they will hold a gun to our head to pretend the currency is not worthless. Who to believe?

[StarvingLion]

If you throw in that nuclear fission crap as being "renewable", the Cretins of Reddit.com, are all for Economic Suicide err Renewables. I've tried to inform them with my wisdom, but not only I am a ZERO, A NOBODY, ...but ...

I AM A NEGATIVE 100!

https://www.reddit.com/user/StarvingLion

Example: See, i state the obvious and get -1.

Venezuela is on the brink of a complete economic collapse by tito333 in collapse

[–]StarvingLion -1 points 9 days ago

As compared to western economies that are outsourcing every single job and shutting down coal plants for toy generators called "renewables". That is booming economy.

And then I provide the greatest piece of fortune telling in the history of mankind, and what do I get?...another -1...sigh.

Confessions of a Doomer - Peak Oil Barrel by eleitl in collapse

[–]StarvingLion -1 points 1 month ago*

Ron Patterson doesn't understand that todays average human is screwed irregardless of the ecological state of the earth.

Computational Machines (eg. AI) run solely on electricity. Humans do not.

Thus Humans in a post Peak oil-water-etc world become extremely vulnerable to economic dislocation due to their huge resource requirements and biological limitations compared to computational machines.

This is the military opportunity in the 21st century. Economically, Humans cannot compete with Computational Machines in an increasingly larger spectrum of important activities. The global economy is hopelessly interconnected because of overshoot thus its impossible to escape the Computational Machines ability to become parasitic and thus is unshakeable. A small elite of humans who control and design the premier computational machines can certainly oust the rest of humanity via sophisticated electronic economic warfare just like some are currently ousting the great apes with the usual crude weapons such as shotguns.

So Ron Patterson is basically saying "Nothing can be done, its way way too late"...when in actuality "something is being done" big time.

Its just that he isn't aware of it.

[KaiserJeep]

?????????

Non-sequitur, your facts are uncoordinated.
- Nomad

[StarvingLion]

?????????

Non-sequitur, your facts are uncoordinated.
- Nomad

Apparently, you are confused as to the objectives of

The Fourth Industrial Revolution (your naive Mass Electrification)

So is Richard Jones.

http://www.softmachines.org/wordpress/?p=1776

The Fourth Industrial Revolution is the Great Peak Oil Solver, thats for sure.

You're sitting on the Oil chair (welfare state) right now. The Elite want to attach an ejection device onto your chair, press the eject button, and watch you rocket into the ghetto.

The Money Swirling Economy (Renewables) requires mysterious weather events to extract money from helpless victims because, well, it aint possible to strip the earth of its assets wastefully (welfare state) forever otherwise even the Davos elite will croak. And surely turning the markits into the equivalent of the Vancouver Stock Exchange (with a liar at the top of every shale gas deposit investment scheme) can't plug the energy hole either.

Thats the purpose of "Renewables" with all its Interconnectors. So the Elite get a weather-was-to-blame asset stripping system plus a remote ON/OFF switch to your homes AC plugins. As Ron Patterson eluded, a perpetually bankrupt FIAT system requires a lot of faith to keep functioning. What better faith can there be than DEMAND MANAGEMENT (the previously mentioned ON/OFF switch)? You don't want to obey? The remote OFF switch is pressed. What ya going to do about it? Collapse the system and the brittle food supply system kills you instantly. They got you over a barrel. Renewables is nothing more than an energy gun pointed at your head to keep faith in a currency (petrodollar) that is now totally worthless due to peak oil and failed wars. The beginning of the end was the Vietnam War proxy war with China.

Forget about your Mass Electrification dreamworld. You will be allocated 1/10th of the electricity that you normally enjoyed. Thats the revolution.

[ROCKMAN]

sun- "Many living at the top of energy consumption pyramid fervently believe there is a green, sustainable, renewable clean energy available for our future". And everyone of them is part of the collective that is consuming more oil globally today then every before in history. I smell a lot of "Do what I say...not what I'm doing". LOL

[hvacman]

Forget about your Mass Electrification dreamworld. You will be allocated 1/10th of the electricity that you normally enjoyed. Thats the revolution.

I can't believe I'm saying this, but for once I agree with SL. We WILL have to adapt to a small fraction of the electricity we normally enjoyed. That is life with renewables. But that doesn't necessarily mean a "rough" life - because we typically squander 90% of what we normally enjoyed. And this is where we techno-types find "religion". We hold "faith" that through re-engineering our homes, our transportation, habits, and our cultures, we (or at least some fraction of "we") can go on and be smart and adapt with something better than a new Dark Ages in the post-fossil-fuel era.

[kublikhan]

The utilization ratio of PV is about 25% and wind, depending on site, is maybe 30%. Granted, 68% of power capacity was renewable, but the 32% of conventional power capacity installed still will be generating more than 60% of the new annual electrical energy requirement vs 40% for the new RE generator. To have the same energy generating capacity as conventional, RE must install 3-4x the power capacity.

The EIA data did not bare those results out. Assuming my math is correct, renewables generated about 5x as much new KWh as fossil fuels did in 2014(the last year with complete data).

non hydro renewables added 26 TWh of new generation in 2014
fossil fuels added 5 TWh of new generation in 2014

I was expecting fossil fuels to have added more than that. After all, renewables are only about 2/3rds of new generation capacity plus fossil fuels have higher capacity utilization rates. So barring a math error, why did fossil fuels add so little in terms of actual generation? The answer may lie in falling utilization rates for fossil fueled power plants. Given the large installed base of existing fossil fuel power plants, even a small drop in utilization rates can offset much of the new generation that was added.

the capacity factors for coal and natural gas are falling, and those of renewables are rising. For example the capacity factor for natural gas dropped from 70 percent in the first half of 2014 to 62 percent in the second half of 2015. For wind, the capacity factor rose from 32 to 37 percent during the same period and for solar, it increased from 17 to 20 percent.

Why is that important? Because while solar and wind only represent around five percent of total U.S. electricity, there is now enough renewable energy to influence when coal and natural gas plants run. As more renewables are installed, coal and natural gas plants use less inputs, thus increasing the cost of coal and natural-gas-fired power. As their costs go up, more renewables are installed, and the vicious cycle is perpetuated.

Fossil Fuels For Power Gen May Soon Be In Terminal Decline

For the first time, widespread adoption of renewables is effectively lowering the capacity factor for fossil fuels. That's because once a solar or wind project is built, the marginal cost of the electricity it produces is pretty much zero—free electricity—while coal and gas plants require more fuel for every new watt produced. If you're a power company with a choice, you choose the free stuff every time.
It’s a self-reinforcing cycle. As more renewables are installed, coal and natural gas plants are used less. As coal and gas are used less, the cost of using them to generate electricity goes up. As the cost of coal and gas power rises, more renewables will be installed.

Solar and Wind Just Passed Another Big Turning Point

[peripato]

Ha, ha, ha. Those renewables are just building themselves, no FF's involved at all...lol


Notice how the uptick in "other renewables" growth (solar panels, windmills and the like) after 2010, another Ponzi, coincides with the same in FF's?

[kublikhan]

Ha, ha, ha. Those renewables are just building themselves, no FF's involved at all...lol

I don't think anyone thinks that. Using FFs to build renewables is one of the best uses for FFs, IMHO. It multiplies the amount of energy we can utilize by several fold as opposed to burning the FFs as a feedstock.

[peripato]

Ha, ha, ha. Those renewables are just building themselves, no FF's involved at all...lol

I don't think anyone thinks that. Using FFs to build renewables is one of the best uses for FFs, IMHO. It multiplies the amount of energy we can utilize by several fold as opposed to burning the FFs as a feedstock.

Yeah, just put that carbon anywhere! Lol...

[kublikhan]

Yeah, just put that carbon anywhere! Lol...

Renewables release an order of magnitude less carbon than burning FFs directly.

Technology_ tonnes co2 e/GWh
Lignite__ 1,054
Coal______ 888
Oil_______ 733
Natural Gas 499
Solar PV____ 85
Biomass____ 45
Nuclear_____ 29
Hydroelectric 26
Wind_______ 26

Comparison of Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Various Electricity Generation Sources

[peripato]

Yeah, just put that carbon anywhere! Lol...

Renewables release an order of magnitude less carbon than burning FFs directly.

Technology_ tonnes co2 e/GWh
Lignite__ 1,054
Coal______ 888
Oil_______ 733
Natural Gas 499
Solar PV____ 85
Biomass____ 45
Nuclear_____ 29
Hydroelectric 26
Wind_______ 26

Comparison of Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Various Electricity Generation Sources

Ha ha ha...bogus. World Nuclear Org? WTF? Really Pal?

Check out this info from a previous discussion, which gives a WAY MORE ACCURATE picture of things as they stand, today.

[Ulenspiegel]

Ha, ha, ha. Those renewables are just building themselves, no FF's involved at all...lol


Notice how the uptick in "other renewables" growth (solar panels, windmills and the like) after 2010, another Ponzi, coincides with the same in FF's?

Could it be that you do not get some of the basics?

First of all I would, if I were you, try to understand primary energy and the inconsistencies of these book-keeping rules. Then I would think harder about your FF input argument, it is actually useless for the next two decades, only energetical payback matters, here to use Chinese PV in order to argue against wind turbines is shitty propaganda at it best/worst.

But I understand that somebody with your shallowness uses the easy way.

[kublikhan]

Ha ha ha...bogus. World Nuclear Org? WTF? Really Pal?

Check out this info from a previous discussion, which gives a WAY MORE ACCURATE picture of things as they stand, today.

Actually your link gives even lower values for solar PV than my link does. My link gave a mean value of 85 tonnes co2 per GWh. Your link gives an average value of 55 grams per KWh(55 tonnes per GWh). The high value in your link is lower than the average value in mine. So thanks for making my point even stronger.