Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Refinery news (merged)

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: Oil industry scales back refinery plans because of ethan

Unread postby DantesPeak » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 21:09:22

pip wrote:I work for an unnamed US refiner, and several months ago the regional vice-president came in and presented a slide show to the entire plant work force. The presentation he showed us was about the next 5-10 year projection for supply/demand etc that had been done by the company’s planning dept. The presentation had evidently been made to all the company’s plant managers earlier.

For those calling conspiracy or dishonesty, you’re giving the oil industry way too much credit. The presentation predicted gasoline demand continuing upward into the future in a consistent manner. Ethanol production to continue to increase into the future taking a larger and larger slice of the gasoline demand. The VP expressed concern about our future competition with the ethanol industry implying margins would likely decrease.

As strange as it seems, I would not assume the refining industry knows any more about peak oil than the average joe. I certainly haven’t met anyone here who would even recognize the term.


Thanks pip.

Government does get some of the blame for misleading when saying large increases are planned. I suppose if there is some new breakthrough in ethanol efficiency those goals may actually be realized, but as a practical matter, they don't look like they will now. So refinery capacity will be needed, mostly to process lower quality oil.

Even if they did move up ethanol production, what happens in the year of drought or famine when ethanol can't be produced or other crops are needed? Obviously they will expect refineries to pick up the slack. I hope someone is planning for the worst - or else many people will starve and/or not get to work one of these years.
It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
User avatar
DantesPeak
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6277
Joined: Sat 23 Oct 2004, 03:00:00
Location: New Jersey

Re: Oil industry scales back refinery plans because of ethan

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 22:53:26

pip said:

As strange as it seems, I would not assume the refining industry knows any more about peak oil than the average joe. I certainly haven’t met anyone here who would even recognize the term.


It does not surprise me that the oil industry is uninformed about Peak Oil. I know several retired oil executives and petro-geologists, and they are almost completely ignorant of the connection between geology and the decline of the world’s major fields. They view the problem as resulting from a lack of investment or poor management decisions; nothing else.

But your comment, about their view, that ethanol competes with oil is surprising. Ethanol is completely dependant on oil for its present mass scale production. It is amazing that they are unaware of the fact that it takes oil to produce ethanol. As ethanol scales upward, so will the demand for oil. You would think that they would be preparing to cash in on all the oil products that will be needed to produce all that ethanol.

Are oil companies executives required to complete training at GM before their service begins?
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 7132
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Oil industry scales back refinery plans because of ethan

Unread postby threadbear » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 23:00:25

shortonoil wrote:pip said:

As strange as it seems, I would not assume the refining industry knows any more about peak oil than the average joe. I certainly haven’t met anyone here who would even recognize the term.


It does not surprise me that the oil industry is uninformed about Peak Oil. I know several retired oil executives and petro-geologists, and they are almost completely ignorant of the connection between geology and the decline of the world’s major fields. They view the problem as resulting from a lack of investment or poor management decisions; nothing else.

But your comment, about their view, that ethanol competes with oil is surprising. Ethanol is completely dependant on oil for its present mass scale production. It is amazing that they are unaware of the fact that it takes oil to produce ethanol. As ethanol scales upward, so will the demand for oil. You would think that they would be preparing to cash in on all the oil products that will be needed to produce all that ethanol.

Are oil companies executives required to complete training at GM before their service begins?


So either you got it wrong, they got it wrong, or someone's uhhh...lying? NO!!! :lol:
User avatar
threadbear
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7577
Joined: Sat 22 Jan 2005, 04:00:00

Re: Oil industry scales back refinery plans because of ethan

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 23:21:51

threadbear said:

So either you got it wrong, they got it wrong, or someone's uhhh...lying? NO!!!


I think that their main concern is a breakthrough in cellulose ethanol. With them having tens of billions riding on it and all the hype being presented about it, you can see why. The ERoEI of conventional ethanol insures that it will never be able to compete head to head with oil, that is, except at the local bar.
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 7132
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Oil industry scales back refinery plans because of ethan

Unread postby cube » Mon 18 Jun 2007, 23:43:29

TheDude wrote:Who ever heard of a state run oil company? 8)
...
Saudi Aramco - the biggest oil company in the world

The average Joe doesn't know this but the biggest players in this game are not the private companies but instead the state owned ones.

A lot of OPEC nations have nationalized their oil companies or in the process of doing so.

Hugo Chavez of Venezuela has earned quite a reputation in some circles. :P
cube
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3909
Joined: Sat 12 Mar 2005, 04:00:00

Re: Oil industry scales back refinery plans because of ethan

Unread postby TheDude » Tue 19 Jun 2007, 08:58:21

Ah, I know about Aramco, that was more sarcasm. Wonder how Aramco stacks up against various nations in terms of "GDP"; or is that figured into Saudi GDP? Your average Joe also doesn't know that Walmart (for example) is worth more than many countries.
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
User avatar
TheDude
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4896
Joined: Thu 06 Apr 2006, 03:00:00
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia

Re: Oil industry scales back refinery plans because of ethan

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 20 Jun 2007, 00:48:43

C'mon, peakoilers.

I am surprised nobody caught this. Same article; different headline.

Same error.

Ethanol could keep price of gas high
Industry won’t expand refineries since demand for gas will remain the same
With President Bush calling for a 20 percent drop in gasoline use and the Senate now debating legislation for huge increases in ethanol production, oil companies see growing uncertainty about future gasoline demand and little need to expand refineries or build new ones.

Oil industry executives no longer believe there will be the demand for gasoline over the next decade to warrant the billions of dollars in refinery expansions — as much as 10 percent increase in new refining capacity — they anticipated as recently as a year ago.


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/19276523/

President Bush didn't call for a 20% drop in gasoline use, he called for a 20% reduction of the projected growth.

SOTU wrote:“Reforming And Modernizing Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) Standards For Cars And Extending The Current Light Truck Rule. In 2017, this will reduce projected annual gasoline use by up to 8.5 billion gallons, a further 5 percent reduction that, in combination with increasing the supply of renewable and alternative fuels, will bring the total reduction in projected annual gasoline use to 20 percent.”


It should read:

“President George W. Bush tonight will propose the U.S. cut its projected annual gasoline use by 20 percent over the next 10 years through a combination of higher vehicle fuel efficiency through reformed CAFE standards (5%) and a 15% displacement of gasoline by renewable and alternative fuels.

Overall auto fuel use (gas and flex vehicles) will still grow 12 % from 2007 levels due to population growth and economic expansion.”

So, he is really talking about a 5% reduction in the projected growth of gasoline, not current use, and a 15% reduction from switching to some other fuel than gasoline.


So, is this a way to hide the fact that we won't need the refining capacity due to peak oil?

Blame it on ethanol?
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO

Re: Oil industry scales back refinery plans because of ethan

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 20 Jun 2007, 10:12:47

MonteQuest said:

C'mon, peakoilers.

I am surprised nobody caught this. Same article; different headline.

Same error.

Good catch Monte.

I can’t believe that the oil companies are seriously worried about conventional ethanol (CE), maybe they aren’t generally aware of Peak Oil, but they must be aware that CE is basically a looser. They must also be aware that oil is getting more expensive, declining in quality and will slowly be getting priced out of the market as an energy source.

Investments of hundred’s of billions into new facilities would make absolutely no sense from this standpoint. So how do they explain this to the public; you are right, “blame it on ethanol”. Thanks a bunch, US government, you bunch of lugk heads. These politically whore mongering imbeciles have as much in common with the Founding Fathers of this country, as a heap of horse shit has with a fine Bordeaux.
User avatar
shortonoil
False ETP Prophet
False ETP Prophet
 
Posts: 7132
Joined: Thu 02 Dec 2004, 04:00:00
Location: VA USA

Re: Oil industry scales back refinery plans because of ethan

Unread postby Eli » Wed 20 Jun 2007, 10:40:47

Yeah this story makes no sense at all, other than as a cover story.

The fact is if big oil had a growing supply of crude they should have built more refining capacity yesterday.

People are going to be screaming this summer about why we do not have more gasoline and refining capacity. Many people are going to be mad and already are mad and are asking why we have not built a new refinery in the US.

It looks like TPTB are trying desperately to avoid saying, the reason we have no new refineries is that we have a steadily declining amount of oil, and it is declining in both quantity and quality. Our second biggest exporter, has passed peak oil and we have no idea on earth how to replace that lost production.
User avatar
Eli
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 3709
Joined: Sat 18 Jun 2005, 03:00:00
Location: In a van down by the river

Re: Oil industry scales back refinery plans because of ethan

Unread postby MonteQuest » Wed 20 Jun 2007, 15:23:09

Eli wrote:The fact is if big oil had a growing supply of crude they should have built more refining capacity yesterday.

People are going to be screaming this summer about why we do not have more gasoline and refining capacity. Many people are going to be mad and already are mad and are asking why we have not built a new refinery in the US.


They did, it just isn't enough to meet the growth in demand.

We haven't built any new refinieries, but we have consistently added new capacity since the 1990's equal to 8 new ones with more capacity in the pipeline.

The oildrum has a very good run down on all the factors at play.
A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
User avatar
MonteQuest
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 16593
Joined: Mon 06 Sep 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Westboro, MO

Engineer: base refinery stand on `facts, not fears'

Unread postby 4dsc » Thu 27 Sep 2007, 09:01:11

Karen Hall, a chemical engineer who worked for eight years at an oil refinery south of St. Paul, Minn. is in Siouxland today to speak about what Union County residents can expect if Hyperion Resources builds its planned refinery here.

Hall said she thinks residents should decide whether to favor or oppose the project based on facts, not fears.

She will discuss the emissions and toxic waste produced by an oil refinery, along with how the products, byproducts and waste materials are handled at 7 o'clock this evening at the Legion Hall on Main Street in Elk Point, S.D. The meeting is sponsored by Save Union County, a group organized to opposed the project. The presentation is open to the public.

Hyperion's plans call for refining 400,000 bpd of Alberta (Canada) crude, a very heavy, hard-to-refine oil extracted from tar sands. Hall said Hyperion is "very smart" to pursue the refinery. "Canada is close and friendly," she noted. She said there is not much competition for the oil because not every refinery is equipped to process it.

Link

What questions would you have for Ms Hall about this refinery aka water usage and air pollution.


(link shortened - TheTurtle)
User avatar
4dsc
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 31
Joined: Sun 03 Apr 2005, 04:00:00

Marathon refinery expansion

Unread postby billyk » Thu 08 Nov 2007, 11:40:42

Anybody know when Marathon will be ready to increase fuel production from the refinery expansion(in Louisiana)? I see it on their commercials & read about it awhile ago in the WWJ. Also, anybody aware of other expansions in refineries?? It's part of this country's problem!! billyk
User avatar
billyk
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 15
Joined: Thu 01 Nov 2007, 03:00:00

Re: Marathon refinery expansion

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Thu 08 Nov 2007, 12:38:12

I do not believe there are any significant additions to capacity coming. Right now the refiners are struggling just to keep the existing facilities going without catching fire or exploding. We have a major problem with very old equipment, not enough maintenance being done due to demand pressures, and a declining quality of crude oil making it much harder on the cracking and heating units.

They are pedaling faster and faster just to stay in the same place. No one wants to lay down the dollars for a huge refinery due to risk and NIMBY's.
User avatar
AirlinePilot
Moderator
Moderator
 
Posts: 4378
Joined: Tue 05 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: South of Atlanta

Re: Marathon refinery expansion

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 08 Nov 2007, 21:13:04

Well I know my nerves are shot, I saw the topic for this thread and in my mind it said Marathon refinery expLOsion.

I was very confused when the messages did not fit that profile. Then I read it again DO'OH!
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
User avatar
Tanada
Site Admin
Site Admin
 
Posts: 17050
Joined: Thu 28 Apr 2005, 03:00:00
Location: South West shore Lake Erie, OH, USA

Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion

Unread postby Ache » Thu 15 May 2008, 03:54:42

User avatar
Ache
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 348
Joined: Sat 23 Apr 2005, 03:00:00

Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion

Unread postby Fredrik » Thu 15 May 2008, 04:22:05

If physical infrastructure decays as quickly and as massively as Simmons says, it will probably make the initial drop in supply quite steep, but preserve a little more oil reserves for later years. Whether it will be financially possible or energetically sensible to build huge new rigs and drilling equipment to get the remaining harder-to-extract oil, is another matter.
"Only scarcity and effort make life worth living."
"A fundamental, devastating error is to set up a political system based on [individual] desires." -Pentti Linkola
User avatar
Fredrik
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 397
Joined: Sun 05 Nov 2006, 04:00:00
Location: Finland

Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion

Unread postby ZombieMalthus » Thu 15 May 2008, 05:20:53

Geez, aliens blowing up the Whitehouse, the 4 Horsemen of the Apocalypse, ... Simmons is getting really alarmist.

Fun read, though.
User avatar
ZombieMalthus
Wood
Wood
 
Posts: 32
Joined: Wed 14 May 2008, 03:00:00

Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion

Unread postby TheDude » Thu 15 May 2008, 10:04:24

Sounds like Matt's a Neil Young fan, too. Maybe his next PPT will state that Cantarell's decline is Cortez the Killer... :lol:
Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
And let me tell you something: I dig your work.
User avatar
TheDude
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 4896
Joined: Thu 06 Apr 2006, 03:00:00
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia

Re: Oil And Gas “Rust”: An Evil Worse Than Depletion

Unread postby mididoctors » Thu 15 May 2008, 11:32:40

He does appear to be freaking out....

well he always described himself as a energy worrier.

energy Czars .. not very adam smith.

Boris
London
User avatar
mididoctors
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 578
Joined: Mon 30 Aug 2004, 03:00:00
Location: London

PreviousNext

Return to Energy Technology

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 52 guests