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Rebuttal of Hubbert Peak Oil and Hubbert type models

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Rebuttal of Hubbert Peak Oil and Hubbert type models

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 20 Dec 2008, 11:37:10

Zero-point wrote:
shortonsense wrote:
Zero-point wrote:
First, I never heard of that interpretation of PO being the maximum rate of global production until you mentioned it in this thread. I don't agree with that.


Really. Wow....thats all I EVER thought it was. The rest of the stuff people claim will happen is just add on junk.


What I heard people say it was is the declining rate of production meaning that oil is in the running out phase.

The global maximum rate of production is an equipment shortage problem isn't it?


The global maximum rate of production was limited by infrastructure, which is sort of an equipment problem.

peak oil strikes me as perfectly simple in its concept, maximum global ( or sometimes used for a smaller geographic area ) production rate. Period.

All this dieoff nonsense and financial garbage is people just speculating on their favorite chicken little scenarios.
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Re: Rebuttal of Hubbert Peak Oil and Hubbert type models

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 22 Dec 2008, 06:26:30

zero,

My interpretation that the vast majority of major fields have already been discovered is based upon 34 years (sorry short....zero asked) of exploration as well as the opinion of 99.9% of all other explorationists in the oil patch. I know that sounds a bit arrogant but that's the answer. There will still be some AREAS, like Deep Water Brazil, that contain many billions of bbls of oil but remember we've already produced trillions of bbls of oil. We're talking RELATIVE volumes of oil.

PO is the maximum rate of oil production we'll ever experience GLOBALLY. We maxed out in the US, as Hubbert predicted, in the 70's. No other area of the oil patch has had as much access and capital to explore as we have had in the US. Research US exploration and production history and you'll see what O mean. That is not an "interpretation" but a definition. As I said before you're free to define it how ever you want. But that's the interpretation most here ascribe to. Just ask around.

Yes, technological advances, such as horizontal wells, allow us to produce at higher initial rates. But you're only producing a high rate of oil from new discoveries. But we're discovering far less today then ever before. I can drain a typical new oil discovery several times faster then they could 30 years ago. But it's a higher rate from far fewer wells today then 30 years ago. PO is max rate of all existing wells not just the newer ones.
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US Crude Oil Production — Hubbert Peak Oil Theory Revisited

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Apr 2018, 18:15:17


US crude oil production. Link here. I find it incredible such "authoritative" sources as Wikipedia have not updated their "Hubbert Peak Theory" post. Hubbert Peak Theory describes a bell-shaped curve, not "twin peaks." The Million Dollar Way (The Bakken Oil Blog)


US Crude Oil Production — Hubbert Peak Oil Theory Revisited
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Rebuttal of Hubbert Peak Oil and Hubbert type models

Unread postby PeterEV » Fri 06 Apr 2018, 08:37:45

I came across a graph published by Exxon Mobil at:
http://corporate.exxonmobil.com/en/ener ... rgy-supply
which shows world oil supply peaking in the 2040 to 2050 time frame.
The image location is:
http://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/globa ... 948&w=1686
Image

An earlier version breaks the solid green area out and shows a peaking of "Developed conventional crude and condensate" with a peak in 2005; right where Deffeyes and others were predicting a peak of convention oil production based on Hubbert's original paper. This graph also shows a peak in 2005 for Conventional Crude and Condensate.

I understand that the oil companies, due to shareholder lawsuits, do not want to overstate their reserves but the above image shows a peaking about 22 years hence. The peak at 2040 will likely be extended due to the conservativeness but I don't see it being up ended. If you want to argue with Exxon-Mobil about the validity of this graph, let me know and I'll bring the popcorn. I'll be all ears.

I read the Million Dollar Blog and saw the graph there and yes, you can put more pipes into the ground and suck out the crude faster but that does not change the overall physics and limitations for the world. You may create a bump in the Exxon graph above but it does not change the overall strategic situation. We should be considering this to be the Twilight of the Petro age and looking for ways to extract energy from other sources such as the sun, algae, wind and waves, etc. I ask myself how should I personally address this issue for me, my family and friends? I think this is the way we should be headed. I know the utilities and oil companies are doing a lot of research into this future.
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Re: Rebuttal of Hubbert Peak Oil and Hubbert type models

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 06 Apr 2018, 10:50:04

Peter – “If you want to argue with Exxon-Mobil about the validity of this graph, let me know and I'll bring the popcorn. I'll be all ears.” Of course it’s valid: it obviously adhered to the ASSUMPTIONS made to construct the MODEL. But being VALID does not mean it will eventually be proven to be correct. We don’t even need to debate the geologic or tech aspect of the ASSUMPTIONS made to construct the MODEL since they are not the most critical ASSUMPTIONS made. The ASSUMPTION of the future price of oil obviously dominates the MODEL.

Of course, no one (not a person or company) has CONSISTENTLY been able to correctly predict the price of oil over the time span of this ExxonMobil MODEL. Just consider how no one predicted the boom in US shale production even within 5 or 6 years of its start. And for good reason: despite knowing the oil was in the shales for DECADES and the frac’ng/horizontal drilling tech existed no one had any credible prediction of oil prices increasing to $100+/bbl less then 10 years early when the price was less the $20/bbl.

Similarly, there’s no definitive PROOF of what oil prices will be in just 10 years let alone 20 to 30 years out. Of course, there are plenty of MODELS out there predicting the price of oil in 10 years. They range from $10/bbl to $200/bbl. So pick one price and you can also build a MODEL of future global drilling activity and oil production rate. And then pick an oil price MODEL for the next 32 years and build your own MODEL for global drilling activity and oil production rate and compare it to what XOM has MODELED.
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Re: Rebuttal of Hubbert Peak Oil and Hubbert type models

Unread postby PeterEV » Fri 06 Apr 2018, 15:58:17

Hi Rockman,

I understand that and some of the unspoken caveats in their Model and as you have pointed out: some traders on Wall Street could bid up prices to $147 a barrel, the Bakken sweet spots could be tapped to drive down the price to the $18 range. I'll add: someone could take out Ras Tanara. ANWR could be three times as big as the rest of Alaskan reserves or be a relative dry hole. EVs could really take off and sink crude oil demand extending cheap oil supply for a decade or two further. There are a lot of unknowns and possibilities and yes I could build my own models and maybe one might be close to being what transpires and for the right reasons. I admit I do not have the expertise (nor the insanity) to even begin such a task.

My contention is that we need to think beyond an apparent [in your Hubbert face(?)] high point in Bakken/Eagle Ford/Permian production since the XOM graphs are pointing to a peak in production a few decades away. I'm assuming that XOM does have some expertise in this area. (Okay, they missed the Bakken.) Whatever the eventual curve will be in terms of timing, peak production value, and/or prices, the current graphs do point to the need to seriously think about what needs to be done as we approach and go through peak oil production. With the idea we need to be leaving the impact of eventual diminishing oil supplies before the oil supplies that we currently depend on become scarce (and expensive).
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Re: Rebuttal of Hubbert Peak Oil and Hubbert type models

Unread postby yportne » Fri 06 Apr 2018, 18:24:44

L. F. Buz Ivanhoe on Huppert and the Huppert peak. There can be one or more peaks. http://hubbert.mines.edu/news/Ivanhoe_97-1.pdf
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Re: Rebuttal of Hubbert Peak Oil and Hubbert type models

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 06 Apr 2018, 19:57:13

The Hubbert model failed to correctly predict both when US oil production would peak and when the peak in global peak production would occur. It failed mainly because it didn't take into account the huge amount of oil now coming from US shale oil production.

Cheers!

Image
Looking backward, its clear M. King Hubbert's numerical was a flop at correctly predict the timing of the peak in both US and global oil production. Hubbert never dreamed that so much oil could be produced from US shale oil deposits.
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Re: Rebuttal of Hubbert Peak Oil and Hubbert type models

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 06 Apr 2018, 20:34:21

Plantagenet wrote:The Hubbert model failed to correctly predict both when US oil production would peak and when the peak in global peak production would occur. It failed mainly because it didn't take into account the huge amount of oil now coming from US shale oil production.

Cheers!

Image
Looking backward, its clear M. King Hubbert's numerical was a flop at correctly predict the timing of the peak in both US and global oil production. Hubbert never dreamed that so much oil could be produced from US shale oil deposits.


"huge amount of oil now coming from US shale oil production"

And the quality of that oil is ?

Makes you wonder what was going on between 2001-2008. Drilled lots of conventional oil and FAILED badly leading to the "financial" collapse in 2008. Then they "discovered" a "new" play called shale that they knew about forever.

IT MAKES NO SENSE AT ALL.

You think Poland, UK, etc etc could not use a little Shale lovin? Why aren't they doing it?

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Re: Rebuttal of Hubbert Peak Oil and Hubbert type models

Unread postby pstarr » Fri 06 Apr 2018, 22:36:54

I know Starve, in spite of rockdoc's obsessive insistence that UK will fract it's shale. That won't ever happen. I kept telling him you can't ran shale-oil trains through the Chunnel. The French would never stand for it, because they back-haul their perfume that way. Nor will the UK import oil. There is no excess, even Norway is running down.
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Re: Rebuttal of Hubbert Peak Oil and Hubbert type models

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Sat 07 Apr 2018, 00:44:17

Cuadrilla is planning on fracturing both of its Bowland basin wells by this coming fall. Although the target is gas, not oil, company reports are highly optimistic based on drilling returns.
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Re: Rebuttal of Hubbert Peak Oil and Hubbert type models

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 07 Apr 2018, 09:35:09

pstarr wrote:I know Starve, in spite of rockdoc's obsessive insistence that UK will fract it's shale. That won't ever happen. I kept telling him you can't ran shale-oil trains through the Chunnel. The French would never stand for it, because they back-haul their perfume that way. Nor will the UK import oil. There is no excess, even Norway is running down.

"Nor will the UK import oil"???
What are you smoking? The UK is all ready importing oil, last year to the tune of $14.3 Billion dollars worth.
:roll:
http://www.worldstopexports.com/crude-o ... y-country/
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Re: Rebuttal of Hubbert Peak Oil and Hubbert type models

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 07 Apr 2018, 16:51:55

"huge amount of oil now coming from US shale oil production"

And the quality of that oil is ?


It is light, sweet and quite close in makeup to Brent Crude. Perfect for blending with heavier crude from Canada and Venezuela and can be easily processed without blending in several new refineries under construction and several that are currently upgrading their distillation facilities.

Makes you wonder what was going on between 2001-2008. Drilled lots of conventional oil and FAILED badly leading to the "financial" collapse in 2008. Then they "discovered" a "new" play called shale that they knew about forever. 


The shale industry was starting to ramp up in 2006 and continued to do so through the financial crisis which we have shown countless times had FO to do with oil prices.

You think Poland, UK, etc etc could not use a little Shale lovin? Why aren't they doing it?


They have been. Poland has had numerous wells drilled with relatively limited success due to the plastic nature of the Ordovician shales. The UK has also drilled and fracked a number of wells with good success but have been slowed as they put their regulatory issues in order.

I know Starve, in spite of rockdoc's obsessive insistence that UK will fract it's shale. That won't ever happen. I kept telling him you can't ran shale-oil trains through the Chunnel. 


What kind of stupid comment is that? Have you not heard of the onshore oil terminal at Cruden Bay and the refinery at Grangemouth or the Hamble oil terminal and the Fawley refinery? There is no need to truck oil anywhere, it would be handled exactly as it always has been from fields like Wytch Farm.
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Re: Rebuttal of Hubbert Peak Oil and Hubbert type models

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 13 Apr 2018, 12:14:57

rockdoc123 wrote:
"huge amount of oil now coming from US shale oil production"

And the quality of that oil is ?


It is light, sweet and quite close in makeup to Brent Crude. Perfect for blending with heavier crude from Canada and Venezuela and can be easily processed without blending in several new refineries under construction and several that are currently upgrading their distillation facilities.

Makes you wonder what was going on between 2001-2008. Drilled lots of conventional oil and FAILED badly leading to the "financial" collapse in 2008. Then they "discovered" a "new" play called shale that they knew about forever. 


The shale industry was starting to ramp up in 2006 and continued to do so through the financial crisis which we have shown countless times had FO to do with oil prices.

You think Poland, UK, etc etc could not use a little Shale lovin? Why aren't they doing it?


They have been. Poland has had numerous wells drilled with relatively limited success due to the plastic nature of the Ordovician shales. The UK has also drilled and fracked a number of wells with good success but have been slowed as they put their regulatory issues in order.

I know Starve, in spite of rockdoc's obsessive insistence that UK will fract it's shale. That won't ever happen. I kept telling him you can't ran shale-oil trains through the Chunnel. 


What kind of stupid comment is that? Have you not heard of the onshore oil terminal at Cruden Bay and the refinery at Grangemouth or the Hamble oil terminal and the Fawley refinery? There is no need to truck oil anywhere, it would be handled exactly as it always has been from fields like Wytch Farm.


The shale industry was starting to ramp up in 2006 and continued to do so through the financial crisis which we have shown countless times had FO to do with oil prices.


It had everything to do with the Iraq War and the probable total lack of availability of oil from Iraq. Shale ramped up when:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraq_War# ... cy_expands

Insurgent attacks increased in 2005 with 34,131 recorded incidents, compared to a total 26,496 for the previous year

What a coincidence that the "Financial" Crisis of 2008 occurred exactly at the same time as troop withdrawals occurred because the war was bankrupting them.

Speaking before the Congress on 8 April 2008, General David Petraeus urged delaying troop withdrawals, saying, "I've repeatedly noted that we haven't turned any corners, we haven't seen any lights at the end of the tunnel," referencing the comments of then President Bush and former Vietnam-era General William Westmoreland.

The U.S.–Iraq Status of Forces Agreement was approved by the Iraqi government on 4 December 2008.[225] It established that U.S. combat forces would withdraw from Iraqi cities by 30 June 2009, and that all U.S. forces would be completely out of Iraq by 31 December 2011


Lets face it, Shale is nothing more than a GEOPOLITICAL TOOL to get the oil that matters. If you cannot get middle east oil, you are toast. Shale don't matter diddly.
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Re: Rebuttal of Hubbert Peak Oil and Hubbert type models

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 13 Apr 2018, 12:17:14

coffeeguyzz wrote:Cuadrilla is planning on fracturing both of its Bowland basin wells by this coming fall. Although the target is gas, not oil, company reports are highly optimistic based on drilling returns.


The UK has been at that Shale/Tight Oil thing since 2007 WITH NO RESULTS.
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Re: Rebuttal of Hubbert Peak Oil and Hubbert type models

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 13 Apr 2018, 14:55:57

Lets face it, Shale is nothing more than a GEOPOLITICAL TOOL to get the oil that matters. If you cannot get middle east oil, you are toast. Shale don't matter diddly.


more stupidity. The "US" neither signs contracts for oil and gas exploration/development nor does it drill any wells. That is done by private or publicly traded oil and gas companies. The US government did nothing to make it easy for US oil and gas companies to drill and produce tight oil and gas....there were no special deals made. The shale industry was driven by the activity of oil and gas companies who had access to new technology, cheaper services and higher commodity prices. That industry was almost solely focussed originally on natural gas due to the high natural gas prices that were endemic in the US during both cooling and heating season as demand outstripped supply. As oil prices rose and natural gas supply increased (hence dropping prices) the focus shifted to liquids. Your global conspiracy theories have no place in this discussion.

The UK has been at that Shale/Tight Oil thing since 2007 WITH NO RESULTS.


Quadrilla began drilling for shale in 2010 not 2007 and their operations were shut down almost immediately by a Fracking Moratorium which has just very recently been rescinded. So not surprising there are no "results". Quadrilla's second well was claimed to have found 200 TCF in place which according to the operator would translate into 20 TCF.
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Re: Rebuttal of Hubbert Peak Oil and Hubbert type models

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 14 Apr 2018, 13:33:28

rockdoc123 wrote:
Lets face it, Shale is nothing more than a GEOPOLITICAL TOOL to get the oil that matters. If you cannot get middle east oil, you are toast. Shale don't matter diddly.


more stupidity. The "US" neither signs contracts for oil and gas exploration/development nor does it drill any wells. That is done by private or publicly traded oil and gas companies. The US government did nothing to make it easy for US oil and gas companies to drill and produce tight oil and gas....there were no special deals made. The shale industry was driven by the activity of oil and gas companies who had access to new technology, cheaper services and higher commodity prices. That industry was almost solely focussed originally on natural gas due to the high natural gas prices that were endemic in the US during both cooling and heating season as demand outstripped supply. As oil prices rose and natural gas supply increased (hence dropping prices) the focus shifted to liquids. Your global conspiracy theories have no place in this discussion.

The UK has been at that Shale/Tight Oil thing since 2007 WITH NO RESULTS.


Quadrilla began drilling for shale in 2010 not 2007 and their operations were shut down almost immediately by a Fracking Moratorium which has just very recently been rescinded. So not surprising there are no "results". Quadrilla's second well was claimed to have found 200 TCF in place which according to the operator would translate into 20 TCF.


Cannot afford nuclear, cannot afford gas either. Totally bankrupt.

Obviously, cannot afford anything that requires a fuel input. Thus, forget about Shale Gas in UK. The Shale "Revolution" in America is a big liquidity drain that has already bankrupted Canada and the UK.

Yahoo: Big UK electricity producers may be told to cut output as solar and wind power surges

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/big-e ... 29308.html

Major gas and nuclear power plants may be ordered to cut back on production this summer – to make room for wind and solar.

The National Grid – which oversees the UK’s electricity generation network – said growing supply from smaller wind and solar farms that bypass the grid would see demand fall. “Increased supply and demand variability caused by these periods of low demand and high levels of renewable generation can create operability challenges,” it said. “As a result, we may need to take more actions to curtail generation and possibly instruct inflexible generators to reduce their output in order to balance the system.”

Euronews: EDF Energy becomes second UK firm to raise energy prices

http://www.euronews.com/2018/04/12/edf- ... rgy-prices

EDF Energy said on Thursday it would raise its energy prices in Britain, the second firm this week to announce an increase, despite pressure from the government to keep bills down. The British arm of French utility EDF said the rise was due to higher costs associated with supplying electricity, echoing comments made by rival Centrica , which announced its rise on Tuesday. “EDF Energy continues to face pressures with energy, policy and the costs of installing smart meters all increasing significantly since last summer,” it said in a statement. The rise will add 16 pounds ($22.65) taking its average standard dual fuel bill to 1,158 pounds a year, EDF said. Britain’s government has asked industry regulator Ofgem to put a price cap on the most widely used standard tariffs to combat what it has called “rip off” energy prices. However the cap will not come into effect until the end of the year at the earliest, Ofgem said.
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Re: Rebuttal of Hubbert Peak Oil and Hubbert type models

Unread postby StarvingLion » Sat 14 Apr 2018, 14:05:28

Now we know why GE stock has been collapsing since 2015. America gots no oil growth.

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Re: Rebuttal of Hubbert Peak Oil and Hubbert type models

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 16 Apr 2018, 11:35:26

The intellectuals are totally bankrupt. In this latest article on 'The End of Peak Oil', kerogen is the SAVIOUR. OMG, they are desperate. I guess this moron geologist (who isn't actually working as one) never got the memo that the largest nuclear operator in the USA just said that there will never be another nuclear power plant built in the USA. He's threatening to put the peak oil doomers in prison.

This dude may as well jump off a bridge. From AmericanNoThinker:

https://www.americanthinker.com/article ... k_oil.html

April 14, 2018
The End of Peak Oil

Peak oil predictions and other Malthusian prognostications of resource limits have failed repeatedly for decades. But the people who invoke these false auguries of doom and gloom never seem to suffer any consequences. Any discussion of energy resources is tainted by ideology. Renewable energy sources such as wind and solar are portrayed as morally superior. Tendentious promotions of renewables invariably gloss over their inherent limitations. Wind and solar are intermittent and expensive. Both suffer from low power densities. These flaws are not political or even technological. They originate in the laws of physics and chemistry and are not likely to be overcome at any time in the foreseeable future.

Oil and other fossil fuels will continue to be our primary energy sources through the end of this century because they offer four great advantages. Compared to renewables, fossil fuels are inexpensive, reliable, abundant, and concentrated. The age of oil is far from being eclipsed. We have barely begun to exploit unconventional oil resources. The western U.S. alone contains at least 2 trillion barrels of petroleum in oil shale formations. At a current U.S. annual consumption rate of 7.2 billion barrels, that's a 278-year supply.

Ultimately, the world will switch to nuclear power because that's where the energy is. But there's no reason grounded in science for that transition to take place in the lifetime of anyone reading this article. Political attempts to control energy markets for ideological reasons can only result in increasing energy prices and reduced human prosperity.

David Deming is a geologist, professor of arts and sciences at the University of Oklahoma, and author of the series Science and Technology in World History
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Re: Rebuttal of Hubbert Peak Oil and Hubbert type models

Unread postby StarvingLion » Mon 16 Apr 2018, 11:51:07

The EconoDunces are totally completely useless. This goofball Blanktard writes the usual nonsense, "As oil is abundant all over the world...":

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.10 ... 47458-8_10

Abstract

Most economic theories are wrong. Fortunately, most wrong theories are irrelevant. But some wrong theories are relevant. One of these latter theories is Marion King Hubbert’s peak oil theory, postulated in 1956. Hubbert was a geologist who thought that oil exploration is an uncertain undertaking. Frequently, drilling is en vain; in a few cases, gas is discovered and in another few cases oil. Given uncertainty, only proven reserves are said to be reliable. Proven reserves appear as a peak in the known graphs. In lucky times, we find ourselves on the ascending part of the bell-shaped curve. In less favorable times, we slip downward on the descending part of Hubbert’s peak. Oil reserves dwindle and might come to an end. Hubbert’s peak oil theory is still popular, but doubly false: It predicts crises which do not occur and misses to handle crises which occur.

https://www.wiwi.hu-berlin.de/de/profes ... FORGET.pdf

Next Time the Wolf is Coming

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