copious.abundance wrote:California and the Bo-Wash corridor are outliers.
Here Are The Most Expensive Places In America
Check out the map in the article. You just happen to live in one of the most expensive places in the country.
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
Pops wrote:And to PJs point, the world today doesn't work on PO time, it's still on OIl Age time, it mostly counts it's wealth in virtual bytes. But in the future, just like in the past, real wealth will be in the physical. The trick is to make the transition because someone will still be needing a roof and a payment in pork n beans will make wealth measurable in actual bites.
LOL.
peterjames wrote:Even if life does continue somewhat normal after FF depletion, I foresee law and order getting a little questionable. 3 households of 3 families are more likely to
become 1 household of 3 families, for protection and warmth etc.
Pops wrote:peterjames wrote:Even if life does continue somewhat normal after FF depletion, I foresee law and order getting a little questionable. 3 households of 3 families are more likely to
become 1 household of 3 families, for protection and warmth etc.
What then is a peaker to do with his money? You can only buy so many bullets and beans - better to buy a fishing pole than a fish.
I saw the last bubble in CA coming and cashed out to move to the Ozarks. The value of the property we sold has fallen by a couple hundred thou, just evaporated into thin air. We converted the froth into actual physical land.
Will this land be worth $200k 10-20-40 years down the road? Who knows? But, who cares? It will still be 40 acres and a roof and that is the point for the peaker, convert the bytes into bites!
Pops wrote:Found this map of rent vs buy, pretty cool
http://www.trulia.com/vis/rentvsbuy-summer-2013/
Also this for san Diego (you've probably found it already, phaster)
http://piggington.com/
That is his personal brew of price/rent/income and it is perfect! Back in 2000-2001 when I thought the market was about to top I found a chart showing the real estate cycle is about 12-14 years going back to the war. This chart shows just how out of whack things got when instead of values falling in 2001 after the .dot bust, deregulation let all the money that was in the markets flow into RE with no restrictions on what kind of flim flam the mortgage "industry" could pull and it went out of sight. Since the "industry" no longer had to hold their own paper, they turned into used car salesmen - everyone from the local agent to the mort. broker, inspector, appraiser, underwriter and right on up the line to the slicer/dicer/ CDO hukster had no skin in the game so the only motive was commission and the final buyer got a black box with a worthless warranty from a rating agency in the seller's pocket!
What could go wrong?
Anyway, you can see from his chart that SD prices never did reach the typical low "clearing point" around the "index" level of 85 because of the government's continued bankrolling of the flim-flammery! - Damn, that pisses me off! Because of that, his index is actually back above the typical top value of 120 and I'd guess a bunch of crappy loans are still out there. So just on the value of that chart, I'd say you're heading into bubble territory and it seems logical that without major intervention like we have and have had, when that index falls, like it always does, it will fall at least to the typical historic clearing point if not further.
Personally, I think replacement cost is the best gauge, if buying existing is more than a few percent higher than building new, then it's too high. But I don't own any investment property so don't listen to me, LOL
And to PJs point, the world today doesn't work on PO time, it's still on OIl Age time, it mostly counts it's wealth in virtual bytes. But in the future, just like in the past, real wealth will be in the physical. The trick is to make the transition because someone will still be needing a roof and a payment in pork n beans will make wealth measurable in actual bites.
LOL.
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