[onlooker]

I have been lurking on PO since 2005, became official member in 2013. Anyway, just curious about when the real problems related with peak oil will manifest themselves. I say this because it seems to me in rich countries like US we will get hit the hardest. Now in 2005 from PO and other sources it seemed the consensus was conventional oil (light sweet crude) was peaking that year. Also, Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy a book by American investment banker Matthew Simmons was seen to be quite credible and persuasive based upon the reactions. The late Mr. Simmons seems to have been someone who could make such an assessment. Anyway, fast forward to 2008, the rise in the Price per barrel to 147 dollars would seem to have correlation with peak oil. Now with tar sands and shale oil it seems we have bought ourselves some time. So monitoring the forums I have not seen a Post where people are giving their estimate of when the big problems related to peak oil will materialize. Not looking for exact date just ball park figure. Looking forward to the comments.

[Pops]

So monitoring the forums I have not seen a Post where people are giving their estimate of when the big problems related to peak oil will materialize.

You haven't been monitoring very hard, LOL

[Dybbuk]

Trying to guess dates is where you get into trouble. Nobody knows how it will play out, and nobody knows when.

Plus, how do you define "big problems"?

[jesus_of_suburbia]

I'll just save everyone the trouble and post the usual cryptic answers.

"In the not too distant future... "

"Sooner, rather than later..."

Or if you want be more specific, "in the next 5 years...or so."

[ROCKMAN]

"So monitoring the forums I have not seen a Post where people are giving their estimate of when the big problems related to peak oil will materialize." So if the hundreds of thousands (including thousands of US military) that have died and the $TRILLIONS spent in conflicts over Middle east oil producing areas don't qualify as a "big problem" I hate to what does qualify. LOL.

But good news for those who lack a self-generated vision of the "big problems": they are about to release a remake of "Mad Max" with much improved special effects of those "future" problems.

[Revi]

I think they will move heaven and earth, and starve the poor before it becomes apparent to most people. In the US they have already reduced the amount of food stamps a lot of people are receiving by 3/4ths. We are at the point where the problems are beginning to be apparent now. The town I live in has a homeless shelter which is full to capacity and there are plans to expand. We are headed into trouble, because there are less and less people who are working now, and will be less and less "consumers" in the future. I give it about 3 years, maybe 5 at the outside before things get bad.

[ROCKMAN]

Revi - Valid points but I think your timing is off. I work with a group that assists the indigent. Matters have gotten very bad for a great many long ago. I'm sure you're talking about the expansion of that pain to folks who aren't seeing it coming. Such as oil patch hands. I've stepped up my activities with a group in Texas that's designed to help these hands. Help that wasn't needed very much in recent years. That's in the process of changing very quickly these days.

[onlooker]

thanks for all that insight especially Rock and Revi. Yes the distress is already amid us via wars and such. Also, here in the US we are really beginning to feel the economic distress. I guess subconsciously I am envisioning the real major economic fallout of millions losing work ,major deflation and inflation events and driving going way down. I guess it all is a matter of degree. We are seeing bad effects now but worse is yet to come. By the way, securing that Middle East oil is a double edge sword. Yes we have had ongoing casualties and that should be never taken lightly. Yet, that is buying us some time along withe fracking, shale, corn ethanol etc.

[Arthur75]

The overall situation :



And with gas and coal included :



(this from Jean Laherrère, his latest projection might be very slightly different, but not much for sure)

Interesting to note that even if peak gas will occur after peak oil, energy from gas will never replace energy from oil (and far from it).

Basically peak oil crisis is now, and the exact date doesn't matter much.

[Revi]

I just know what is happening in my area. I did a little informal research, and every 6th house or business is abandoned in my area. I really don't know what happened to the people who owned them, but there doesn't seem to be much pressure to re-occupy them (except for porcupines, who love abandoned houses). I don't really know what it means, but places on the periphery are falling apart in the US. The crime rate is really bad in our town, there are lots of unemployed people, and there is a sense that things are falling apart.

[onlooker]

that is similar to my area Revi, I live in upstate NY and I am just seeing quite a number of boarded upon businesses and what seems to be re-possessed lots or establishments. I agree that consequences are already being felt. But I guess the stark truth of the matter is not until it really affects one personally does it really hit home. I feel for the people who may not understand what is really going on. They must being dealing with already some confusion and disorientation. But again, how bad does the average person feel it will get? I guess that is on a individual basis but the mainstream media just does not portray the true scope of what lies ahead. Maybe that is a good thing for those unwilling or incapable of handling the truth.

[Pops]

I gave up on trying to guess when and only concern myself with how.

Way back, the volunteers in the back room would tell each other, "Just wait, when everyone "gets it" we'll be overrun."

But just like people here make (or at least try to make) a connection and lay the blame for any event, anywhere, on PO; other folks will lay the blame for whatever bad things happen on whatever their knee-jerk boogieman happens to be; Obama or Bush, poor people or rich people, 14 year old Chinese industrial workers or American unions, this tyrant or that terrorist, yadda yadda.

Four years of the highest average prices ever, slow/no/negative growth in the global economy, falling workforce participation, rampant government money printing, low level war on a variety of fronts - centered in energy exporting regions; increasing financial shenanigans, increasing partisan rift and radicalization, my fingers are tired...

All that is pretty well indistinguishable from the predicted effects of PO in my book. I wondered in '04 in my first post here how long would it be before the price of oil was so high that preparing for high prices was unaffordable. My WAG was 5-10 years (based mostly on Laherrere)

My mistaken idea at that time was expecting $500/bbl oil, which in hindsight was pretty silly. $500 oil means unleaded is around $15/gal - who can pay that? Obviously there would be much much less demand and of course much less demand means no $15 unleaded. $100-120 is about as high as price can go at this level of consumption, it can go higher for a bit, and will go higher eventually, but that's it for this economy.

Which isn't to say that oil priced just beyond the reach of some is not a bad thing, merely that a price beyond the reach of "some" is not necessarily beyond the reach of all. That was MY mistake, thinking everyone would be priced out at once, but they won't, only the marginal consumer. The key then is not to outrun depletion, just outrun the other guy.


The biggest event in the 10 years of this board has been fracking, not for oil (which I think requires prices much higher than this economy can afford) but for nat gas. If gas production had peaked as was forecast in the early oughts we would certainly be in a world of hurt. As it is electricity generation from nat gas has doubled from 15% to 30% of the total. What is that, 5 times the increase of PV/wind?

[Pops]

I just want you to know Pete I wrote that 'peakers will blame all ills on peak' before I read your post.

;^)

[onlooker]

thanks guys for the particulars of all of this. Great insights.

[ROCKMAN]

Revi – “I really don't know what happened to the people who owned them…” Not sure where they all went but a lot relocated to Texas. Between 2000 and 2010 the Texas population increased by 4.3 million…a 21% increase. At one point 2,500 folks were relocating to Texas EACH DAY.

But I suspect that dynamic will change a good bit now that the lower oil prices have kicked in. But that begs the question: where are those folks going to return to if they left there because of diminishing opportunities? I suspect being poor in the south would be easier to handle then being poor in the north.

[furrybill]

I agree with those who say we are already living in the decline that will be associated with peak oil. As has been said, frog cooking is a good analogy.

For me the effects of peal oil are a certainty. When will they hit? 5 years? 20? I don't know. Since I can't control what I don't know I'm focusing on what I can by trying to figure out what the economy will look like and start prepping today. For example planting fruit and nut trees is a concrete action I can take to move me incrementally towards better food security.

[KaiserJeep]

-snip-

All that is pretty well indistinguishable from the predicted effects of PO in my book. I wondered in '04 in my first post here how long would it be before the price of oil was so high that preparing for high prices was unaffordable. My WAG was 5-10 years (based mostly on Laherrere)

My mistaken idea at that time was expecting $500/bbl oil, which in hindsight was pretty silly. $500 oil means unleaded is around $15/gal - who can pay that? Obviously there would be much much less demand and of course much less demand means no $15 unleaded. $100-120 is about as high as price can go at this level of consumption, it can go higher for a bit, and will go higher eventually, but that's it for this economy.

Which isn't to say that oil priced just beyond the reach of some is not a bad thing, merely that a price beyond the reach of "some" is not necessarily beyond the reach of all. That was MY mistake, thinking everyone would be priced out at once, but they won't, only the marginal consumer. The key then is not to outrun depletion, just outrun the other guy.


The biggest event in the 10 years of this board has been fracking, not for oil (which I think requires prices much higher than this economy can afford) but for nat gas. If gas production had peaked as was forecast in the early oughts we would certainly be in a world of hurt. As it is electricity generation from nat gas has doubled from 15% to 30% of the total. What is that, 5 times the increase of PV/wind?

Pops, in answer to your question, I drive an average of 2500 miles per year, including vacations. That means that the difference between the $3/gal I pay today and the $15/gal that you postulate is $1667 because of my terribly inefficient Jeep Wrangler with it's 60+ year old engine design and the resulting 15mpg.

Even though it would be nice to have a nice new Tesla SUV like the prototype they are showing at the car shows, if it is anything like the present Tesla sedan, it will cost me about $400/month to lease one, and $500/month to buy one.

So I'll have to say the Wrangler still gets driven until fuel is about $50/gal. If I buy any EV it will probably be something more like an under-$10K NEV, for local transport only, while the Wrangler is used for highway travel. I'm already in the mode where I vacation by taking a plane or train to where I want to be, and rent a vehicle locally to drive.

I have no desire to ever have a car payment, or a mortgage, ever again. I guess I fell right out of that demographic that interests advertisers.

I have also given up waiting for Armageddon, short of the Islamic Nuclear Bomb. I now understand that the average American lifestyle has been in slow decline since the early 1970s at least. (Which is close enough to Hubbert's original peak for conventional oil wells.) It can decline at that same rate for another 30 years and the USA will still be the only place that I would want to live. (I'll almost certainly be dead by then.)

It's a new concept for me, but TEOTWAWKI may have already been happening for decades past, and probably will continue for decades to come.