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Re: Puerto Rico

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 09:28:02

KaiserJeep wrote:Yes, PBS went over those figures about two months ago. The 23% figure was well below the 54% participation in the prior referendum, where they voted to remain a territory. The difference is attributed to the PPD party, and that is the same group that supposedly has in the past given clandestine support to the FALN.


That is incorrect, in the 2012 referendum 54% of voters participated and the vote was 66% in favor of statehood. The 2014 resolution by Congress demanded they jump through the hoop of voting for statehood again and the 2017 referendum was opposed by the PPD because they had lost the 2012 referendum (they want independence) and they actively suppressed the vote to prevent a repeat of the 2012 results. The fact of the matter is the 23% who refused to be intimidated voted overwhelmingly again for Statehood.

Yet Congress continues to drag their heels and demand additional loopholes and goal posts be jumped through and achieved.

The raw truth of the matter is after the 2012 referendum when they clearly voted for statehood the international banking community stopped issuing loans freely to Puerto Rico because their status is in flux. If they write a loan to a Territory and it changes into a State the banking rules change in the middle of the pay off period. States get different loan rules than territories because they have different power and authority as separate entities in addition to national influence.

A very large part of the problems in Puerto Rico today are the fact that Congress keeps changing the rules and not accepting them as a state which leaves them in legal limbo as far as the banking institutions are concerned. They are stuck, they can not refinance their debt as is the common practice by both states and the Federal Government until this limbo is resolved and now many of the racist element are using this existential imposition of Limbo to blame the American Citizens of Puerto Rico for failing to refinance their loans!!!

Yes I am kind of peeved off over the whole thing, it is a disgusting example of politicians destroying a sector of their own citizens and being cheered along by those foolish enough to read the headlines but not understand the real story of what is going on!
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Re: Puerto Rico

Unread postby GHung » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 10:23:15

Thanks, Tanada. This has all been discussed before here, and I get the feeling the far right has done a fine job of getting people to blame PR entirely for their situation, and for why they haven't been granted statehood. I've also posted that Congress hasn't been forthcoming about their own role, and that they don't want to be blamed for incurring the costs of granting PR statehood. Considering the current political environment, Republicans especially see supporting statehood as a huge political risk. I've heard more than once that "we don't need another bunch of poor immigrants flooding into the US". Seems these folks have been so programmed that they either ignore, or don't know/care, that Puerto Ricans can come and go to the mainland as they please because they are citizens.

It's just another case of political impotence being forced on our country, mainly by the much-smaller-government crowd. And, being fair, the view that we can't afford to grant PR statehood has some merit, considering the debt, and that social programs are already being threatened. Just another American conundrum.

And it's not just Puerto Ricans who feel disenfranchised these days. I've felt for years that my votes on the federal level don't count for much, if at all. Indeed, not a single person I've voted for at the state and national level currently holds office, except for the NC Governor, which was mostly a protest vote.
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Re: Puerto Rico

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 11:29:49

GH, your intuition here can be backed up by data.

The study found that while economic elites’ and business groups’ preferences often result in policy changes, public opinion has virtually no influence on policy outcomes. We see this all the time on issues from climate change to gun control


When a majority of citizens disagrees with economic elites and/or with organized interests, they generally lose. Moreover, because of the strong status quo bias built into the U.S. political system, even when fairly large majorities of Americans favor policy change, they generally do not get it…we believe that if policymaking is dominated by powerful business organizations and a small number of affluent Americans, then America’s claims to being a democratic society are seriously threatened.


https://scholar.google.com/scholar?clus ... as_sdt=0,5

cited here: https://www.skepticalscience.com/fake-n ... ution.html
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Re: Puerto Rico

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 11:44:37

Last time I checked Mississippi, Arkansas, West Virginia, Louisiana, Michigan Alabama are all States. It doesn't prevent them from being quite poor areas
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 94726.html
US has regressed to developing nation status, MIT economist warns
Puerto Rico becoming a State would not change its economic status very much
The Big Economic Plunge is approaching
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Re: Puerto Rico

Unread postby GHung » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 12:04:37

onlooker wrote:Last time I checked Mississippi, Arkansas, West Virginia, Louisiana, Michigan Alabama are all States. It doesn't prevent them from being quite poor areas
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world ... 94726.html
US has regressed to developing nation status, MIT economist warns
Puerto Rico becoming a State would not change its economic status very much


It's not about reality these days. It's about perception and spin. Issues don't get people elected. Spin does.

Rush Limbaugh - Dec 5, 2017 ... If those PR's can vote in the elections...they WILL turn FL blue because their are hundreds of thousands of them coming here. And once they get here and receive all the welfare and Mercedes Benz to drive around in ...they won't want to leave and go back to PR. They will stay here, make more babies.....


And here he says that more Puerto Ricans coming to Florida will make Trump's impeachment more likely. The comments are just as telling.
https://youtu.be/80jTOgGG3mo?t=56

Implied bottom line: We don't need Puerto Ricans coming here, and don't want them as a State with full voting rights. Any Republican that openly advocates for either is toast.
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Re: Puerto Rico

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 12:09:27

G, I think you ruined my day , linking to that overgrown loudmouth of
Limbaugh yuk
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Re: Puerto Rico

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 12:16:41

onlooker wrote:G, I think you ruined my day , linking to that overgrown loudmouth of
Limbaugh yuk

I don't think Limbaugh has any point here, he's just making racist remarks. That is not a label I bandy about lightly, but that man earned it.
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Re: Puerto Rico

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 30 Dec 2017, 12:21:09

Umm, I would think that from both sides of the political, we would ALL recognize Rush as a classless loudmouth. Thanks Kaiser
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Re: Puerto Rico

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 02 Jan 2018, 15:56:32

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wir ... r-52049416
3+ months after Maria, barely half of Puerto Rico has power
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Re: Puerto Rico

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 02 Jan 2018, 16:43:23

onlooker wrote:http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/officials-half-puerto-rico-clients-power-52049416
3+ months after Maria, barely half of Puerto Rico has power
So they are meeting the original six month projection?
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Re: Puerto Rico

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 01:04:25

vtsnowedin wrote:
onlooker wrote:http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/officials-half-puerto-rico-clients-power-52049416
3+ months after Maria, barely half of Puerto Rico has power
So they are meeting the original six month projection?

I don't think they're on target to be done in a total of six months.

First, articles I've seen said they did the "easy" cities and towns first, where you get a relatively high percentage of people in a given area.

Second, estimates I've seen in articles in the past week are giving estimates of from about 8 months up to a year to restore all the power.

Example (saying May, if all goes well): https://www.vox.com/2017/12/23/16795342 ... -christmas
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Re: Puerto Rico

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 07:30:41

Yeah, I can see that. A year.

There are all the technical problems of backwoods mountain roads and also all the financial issues.

What a mess.
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Re: Puerto Rico

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 09:01:26

Newfie wrote:Yeah, I can see that. A year.

There are all the technical problems of backwoods mountain roads and also all the financial issues.

What a mess.

Yes and priority has been naturally given to the capital of San Juan, so in this article, the mountainous backwoods areas believe at least a year for power restoration. I think probably alot longer for those areas
http://www.motherjones.com/politics/201 ... t-a-year/#
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Re: Puerto Rico

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 14:41:03

You think that restoring an almost totally destroyed power grid that literally took over a century to build in a year is poor performance? It actually represents a huge effort and a large allocation of materials such as copper which are getting rarer and rarer.

Really, the only danger is that fools will force the newly constructed grid to be built on wooden poles and above ground again, where it will get destroyed in the next major hurricane.

BTW, the reconstruction will never reach 100%, just as it has not in New Orleans following Katrina. The reason is that many who were evacuated to the mainland will never return. Nor should they return to a place of poverty and squalor after experiencing better opportunities.

My point would be, any implied criticism of the time required to restore the electric grid is ill-conceived.
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Re: Puerto Rico

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 14:53:44

The same people braying that no matter what is done re P.R. is terrible and all Trump's fault would be singing the praises of the same effort in the same timeframe, if HRC or similar were in office.

And everything I read says that the VAST majority of the reconstruction IS using wooden poles and WILL be devastated by the next really big storm. (And it would be the same way if HRC were POTUS, IMO).
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Re: Puerto Rico

Unread postby GHung » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 16:45:44

Outcast_Searcher wrote:The same people braying that no matter what is done re P.R. is terrible and all Trump's fault would be singing the praises of the same effort in the same timeframe, if HRC or similar were in office.

And everything I read says that the VAST majority of the reconstruction IS using wooden poles and WILL be devastated by the next really big storm. (And it would be the same way if HRC were POTUS, IMO).


Which "same people" would that be? And what is "everything I read"?
Any citations? Anything at all?

This is an emergency, folks. They'll patch things together in most areas, reusing and splicing what they can to get critical power to people as fast as they can. Any modernization, upgrading or reconfiguring of things will necessarily come later, if at all.
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Re: Puerto Rico

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 17:35:05

I actually think you are wrong g. What you says makes sense IF you assume the pre existing infrastructure was worth anything. My sense, from my limited travels and observations some years ago, is that there is very little worth reusing. And contractors likely will be required to install to normal standards, probably REA.
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Re: Puerto Rico

Unread postby GHung » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 17:58:03

Newfie wrote:I actually think you are wrong g. What you says makes sense IF you assume the pre existing infrastructure was with anything. My sense, from my limited travels and observations some years ago is that there is very little worth reusing. And contractors likely will be required to install to normal standards, probably REA.


Since I spent about 20 years mapping, designing and re-designing power grids, I know it would take years to do what some of you seem to expect. Just locating (mapping old infrastructure to be replaced) will take months to years. There is surely a lot of stuff to be replaced, but, even in the states, they use as much old infrastructure (intact transformers, wiring, switches, etc.) as they can to get power back on, even if those transmission and distribution sections are already slated for upgrades, etc..

Just the costs of modernizing PR's grid will be enormous; many times the cost of getting the existing rights-of-way back online.. Maybe you can point out where those monies have been appropriated. Include surveys and assessments, design work, equipment specification/designation/ordering (with long lead times) preparation and construction of new rights-of-way (including legal departments and municipalities), locating other infrastructure/interference and coordinating with the people responsible for those, coordination with vendors, transport and contractors, approvals for all of the above...... I could go on and on because I've been there/done that. It takes years in the most prosperous parts of the US.

Do you really think they'll wait that long?
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Re: Puerto Rico

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 19:11:22

No, I think you are right about that. Which means that enormous suffering will happen again after the next big hurricane. Then again after that, every time you make substandard repairs rather than building hurricane-resistent undeground power distribution. Just like we have rebuilt some towns along the Missisippi river multiple times, when the best answer would be to move the town to where it will not flood again. New electrical distribution using wooden poles was banned in California after the Loma Prieta quake. But they still replace deteriorated wooden poles with other wooden poles.

The building codes were the same way once, and people died in quakes. Now you cannot get a building permit to add-on or remodel without bringing the residence up to current codes. People who just wanted to add a bedroom are being forced to bolt down rim joists to foundations and to add diagonal bracing in crawl spaces. It will annoy people, add additional cost, and save lives.

BTW, you are wrong about a lot of the Atlantic Coast infrastructure after hurricane Sandy. Power feeds are being moved underground and fibers are replacing copper for all applications. People are being denied funding to rebuild existing homes unless they raise them one story and install wash-away panels in the new foundation, so the house does not flood in the next tidal surge.

I happen to think it's madness not to do the same in the Carribean, where major storms are a lot more common than the NE coastal zones.
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Re: Puerto Rico

Unread postby GHung » Wed 03 Jan 2018, 19:58:52

KaiserJeep wrote:No, I think you are right about that. Which means that enormous suffering will happen again after the next big hurricane. Then again after that, every time you make substandard repairs rather than building hurricane-resistent undeground power distribution.


Initial repairs don't have to be sub-standard. Indeed, rebuilding what was already there generally is an improvement because whatever deficiencies existed before the storm will have been identified by the storm. Of course, with a Cat 4-5 storm, it won't matter much. My point is that there were already problems like poor and missing support structures and guy wires that will be addressed during the repair. There may have been too many drops from a single transformer, something a good field crew will fix by adding a transformer or installing a larger one, and re-guying the pole back to spec. When it's hard to know exactly what was there before it was wiped out, a good crew will build it back right, and document exactly what they did. This has been a huge problem in the past; keeping an accurate map of what has been changed. All of this needs to be done before any major upgrades should be attempted, or you're just pissing money away.

Just like we have rebuilt some towns along the Missisippi river multiple times, when the best answer would be to move the town to where it will not flood again. New electrical distribution using wooden poles was banned in California after the Loma Prieta quake. But they still replace deteriorated wooden poles with other wooden poles.


Until that section of the grid has been redesigned, certified and approved, that's what the specs say. The map says put a wooden pole here. Doing otherwise causes problems and costs money. Jeez, one of the first things they have to do is figure out who owns the pole. It could be the power company, or an EMC, or the telephone company, or the city, county, etc. They all lease space on each other's poles, and need to be notified when someone else is modifying their poles. That was my very first job in this sector; making maps of poles, who owned them, what equipment was installed on them and who that belonged to and who it serviced. A giant mess in some areas. Power companies don't just decide to dig a ditch and bury their wires.

And don't even get me started on rights-of-way and easements....

The building codes were the same way once, and people died in quakes. Now you cannot get a building permit to add-on or remodel without bringing the residence up to current codes. People who just wanted to add a bedroom are being forced to bolt down rim joists to foundations and to add diagonal bracing in crawl spaces. It will annoy people, add additional cost, and save lives.


The grid works the same way. When a section gets redesigned, it has to be up to new codes. They'll also coordinate with other utilities because they all tend to be stuffed into the same space without cooperation. All of this complexity grows exponentially.

BTW, you are wrong about a lot of the Atlantic Coast infrastructure after hurricane Sandy. Power feeds are being moved underground and fibers are replacing copper for all applications. People are being denied funding to rebuild existing homes unless they raise them one story and install wash-away panels in the new foundation, so the house does not flood in the next tidal surge.


Was that for me? I don't remember mentioning Sandy, but I can guarantee that they got most, if not all, existing infrastructure back online before they began upgrading most stuff like moving power underground, except those areas that burned or were completely wiped away. Moving power lines underground from overhead is a huge undertaking, especially with water, sewer, gas, communications, thousands of service drops for all of these things, along with all of that separate infrastructure.

I happen to think it's madness not to do the same in the Carribean, where major storms are a lot more common than the NE coastal zones.


It's a mad, mad, mad, mad, hyper-complex world. Those people need electricity, water, sewer, phones, NOW. Not some new master plan that nobody wants to pay for.

See it here: http://energia.pr.gov/en/datos/prepas-d ... on-system/
It'll take decades and tens of $billions.
Last edited by GHung on Wed 03 Jan 2018, 20:28:04, edited 1 time in total.
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