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Probability of nuclear war

For discussions of events and conditions not necessarily related to Peak Oil.

Likelyhood of nuclear exchange within 30 years ?

Less than 10 %
23
28%
10-20%
6
7%
20-30%
5
6%
30-40%
5
6%
40-50%
9
11%
50-60%
8
10%
60-70%
8
10%
70-80%
3
4%
80-90%
2
2%
over 90%
13
16%
 
Total votes : 82

Re: Probability of nuclear war

Unread postby eXpat » Thu 25 Oct 2007, 15:57:17

If this (link) is true you better start cleaning that nuclear shelter of yours...

A high-level diplomatic source in Tehran tells Asia Times Online that essentially Putin and the Supreme Leader have agreed on a plan to nullify the George W Bush administration's relentless drive towards launching a preemptive attack, perhaps a tactical nuclear
strike, against Iran. An American attack on Iran will be viewed by Moscow as an attack on Russia.
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Re: Probability of nuclear war

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 25 Oct 2007, 17:03:44

WWI started with ties and agreements that nobody thought would ever take the world into war, but they did. They took the world there and they kept it there.
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Re: Probability of nuclear war

Unread postby btu2012 » Thu 25 Oct 2007, 18:33:27

Interesting how opinions concentrate at the two extremes, < 10% and > 90%. This is usually a sign of faulty analysis.

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Re: Probability of nuclear war

Unread postby kmann » Thu 25 Oct 2007, 18:43:05

Likelyhood of nuclear exchange

Nuclear exchange, unlikely... a single nuclear event, ie. terrorist, more likely.
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Re: Probability of nuclear war

Unread postby TheDude » Sat 27 Oct 2007, 02:52:00

Putin wrote:An American attack on Iran will be viewed by Moscow as an attack on Russia.


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Re: Probability of nuclear war

Unread postby Andrew_S » Sat 27 Oct 2007, 05:51:18

btu2012 wrote:Interesting how opinions concentrate at the two extremes, < 10% and > 90%. This is usually a sign of faulty analysis.

Btu


Yes, but if divided into High, Low and Middling I think middling would lead. 20-80 % probability is a good deal higher than the extremes. We middling folk are just more spread out.
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Re: Probability of nuclear war

Unread postby Twilight » Sat 27 Oct 2007, 06:00:38

btu2012 wrote:Interesting how opinions concentrate at the two extremes, < 10% and > 90%. This is usually a sign of faulty analysis.

I agree, but it is not the situation that has been poorly analysed, more likely people fell at the first hurdle, the wording of the question. Hardly surprising though, given what a loaded issue this is.

I think the key word is "exchange". I voted <10% because MAD limited even to single weapon use remains an effective deterrent. Using a tactical nuke against a conventional opponent on the other hand, I think the odds of seeing that are much better.
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Re: Probability of nuclear war

Unread postby btu2012 » Sat 27 Oct 2007, 16:11:27

Twilight wrote:I agree, but it is not the situation that has been poorly analysed, more likely people fell at the first hurdle, the wording of the question. I think the key word is "exchange". I voted <10% because MAD limited even to single weapon use remains an effective deterrent. Using a tactical nuke against a conventional opponent on the other hand, I think the odds of seeing that are much better.


You make a very good point. What I meant by the question is a nuclear exchange, either within the context of or escalating into a regional or global war.

Nuclear terrorism and asymmetric nuclear attacks are different issues, for a different poll.

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Re: Probability of nuclear war

Unread postby gg3 » Sun 28 Oct 2007, 05:05:02

1) High probability in the Middle East due to the convergence of severe overpopulation and irrationalist leadership (not death-averse, and other-world-oriented).

2) Low probability elsewhere, until resource crises start to bite the first world in a serious manner.

Probability of (1) escalating into global war, minimal, it's not in anyone's interest.

3) Alternate scenario: China and Russia decide they will have a much easier time of it without the pesky US around, and launch a joint attack designed as a counterforce attack. They absorb the retaliatory strikes from US submarines, and then follow with third strikes to knock out US industrial and population centers. After that they divide up the world between themselves. BTW this scenario was rated as low-probability by a friend who is in a position to know.
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Re: Probability of nuclear war

Unread postby btu2012 » Sun 28 Oct 2007, 11:49:49

Double post, sorry.

Btu
Last edited by btu2012 on Sun 28 Oct 2007, 11:50:41, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Probability of nuclear war

Unread postby btu2012 » Sun 28 Oct 2007, 11:50:08

gg3 wrote:1) High probability in the Middle East due to the convergence of severe overpopulation and irrationalist leadership (not death-averse, and other-world-oriented).

2) Low probability elsewhere, until resource crises start to bite the first world in a serious manner.

Probability of (1) escalating into global war, minimal, it's not in anyone's interest.

3) Alternate scenario: China and Russia decide they will have a much easier time of it without the pesky US around, and launch a joint attack designed as a counterforce attack. They absorb the retaliatory strikes from US submarines, and then follow with third strikes to knock out US industrial and population centers. After that they divide up the world between themselves. BTW this scenario was rated as low-probability by a friend who is in a position to know.



Very good points as usual.

1) will likely be kept to a regional conflict if it happens, as you say turning it into global war would be a disaster for the great powers.

About 3): Highly unlikely that the top nuclear powers would directly fight each other. I doubt that any of them could absorb a retaliatory strike. In the case of Russia vs the US, MAD involves retaliation against all major strategic and population centers. Russia would have no way to survive that as a functioning state.

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Re: Probability of nuclear war

Unread postby alokin » Tue 30 Oct 2007, 04:43:37

half half. Because
1.) Bush and his junta has no ethics,
2.) They must not fear their folks because the US citizens are mostly apolitical (if my judgement from outside the US is right - I hope not)
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Re: Probability of nuclear war

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 29 Mar 2013, 12:50:09

"The Threat of Nuclear War in an Age of Eco-Collapse and Peak Everything"

"Below is a great interactive infographic showing who is in the nuclear club, who has nuclear plants as part of their energy mix, and who has both. As everyone should know, nations striving for nuclear energy also get on the fast track to obtaining nuclear bombs, if they so choose."

http://collapseofindustrialcivilization ... verything/
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: Probability of nuclear war

Unread postby Shaved Monkey » Fri 29 Mar 2013, 18:08:10

Nuclear attack anywhere near an oil facility(or any other vital resource) will massively increase production costs.
So I doubt a anyone would do that deliberately to a country they were invading to plunder("liberate")....unless the newly "liberated" country did it to it self as a sabotage attack along the lines of setting your wells on fire,blowing up pipe lines,poisoning the wells, during or after a war.
Obviously if your goal was to cripple economically and aren't concerned about exploiting the resources for personal greed, the scenario changes,but I doubt you would deliberately shoot yourself in the foot.(unless your saw a bigger long term benefit in doing so.)
So basically if there is buck to be made or a good bit of revenge, yes there will be.
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Re: Probability of nuclear war

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 29 Mar 2013, 20:15:39

I presume that N Korea's recent saber rattling brought this to mind?
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Re: Probability of nuclear war

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 29 Mar 2013, 23:06:44

I think the article refers to increased use of nuclear energy, and from there the production of more nuclear weapons, in light of greater resource demand amid environmental damage and peak oil.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: Probability of nuclear war

Unread postby sparky » Sat 30 Mar 2013, 06:07:59

.
Nuclear weapons and their doctrines of use are essentially defensive
there is no , repeat no , cases when fighting a nuclear war is considered

the only cases of possible use is if one homeland is struck (or under imminent danger to be struck)
with weapons of mass destruction , germ warfare , deadly gas , nuclear weapon or nuclear contaminant

The main game is between the U.S.A. and the Russian Republic , all the other actors are pissant dwarfs

cities were never targets as such , but railways , power plants , harbors , petrochemical complex
government offices ...etc are usually close to inhabited areas

until recently , due to targeting uncertainty and the inherent probability of failure to launch
a decapitating first strike was not possible ,
thus a response strike by the victim with a large number of warheads was a high probability

recently however progress by the U.S.A. in guidance and ballistic countermeasures has made
a decapitating first strike a quite realistic option ,
most U.S. weapons are sub based ,very hard to neutralize
while most Russian nukes are on mobile launchers , possibly more vulnerable

The scenario would be a massive first strike , with the missile shield picking out the survivors making it out of their launchers

This is of course the extreme thinking of the Russian general staff ,
they are notorious for cultivating paranoia about surprise attack ,
after all it has happened to them a couple of times .

Their argument is that missile shield in Europe to protect Warsaw from the Iranians non existent nuclear bomb
carried by non existent ICBM for non existent strategic reason ,is a fantasy
but it would mesh nicely with the flyingdale , Thule and Varno X band radar
into a very nice coverage to track any Russian riposte

As I said before they are worrywarts always ready to paint the most innocent defense budget
into some dark menacing weapon system
by example , the Varno radar WAS military , but now it is civilian
it was given for free to the Norwegian military to look a the sky
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Re: Probability of nuclear war

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 18 Mar 2014, 11:28:15

Somehow Î missed this thread, the survey seems like the majority of members on here are very optimistic about the future prospects of nuclear war.

Personally I think the odds go up very quickly if the decline from peak is as steep as the up slope was in the 1990's.
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Re: Probability of nuclear war

Unread postby Pops » Tue 18 Mar 2014, 11:55:46

I no longer worry about an EOTWAWKI exchange with Russia. Back in the day the people with the button over there had their bread buttered by the Party and if the infrastructure and production capacity was vaporized, so what, as long as they personally survived the proles would still support them. Today their sugar comes from "privatized" infrastructure and production - privatized by them for their own profit, I don't see them allowing some nationalistic nutcase to mess that up. They'll let him beat his exposed chest, it makes the consumers happy, but they worked too hard divvying up the old soviet system to let him mess it up.
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
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Re: Probability of nuclear war

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 18 Mar 2014, 12:36:28

Pops wrote:I no longer worry about an EOTWAWKI exchange with Russia. Back in the day the people with the button over there had their bread buttered by the Party and if the infrastructure and production capacity was vaporized, so what, as long as they personally survived the proles would still support them. Today their sugar comes from "privatized" infrastructure and production - privatized by them for their own profit, I don't see them allowing some nationalistic nutcase to mess that up. They'll let him beat his exposed chest, it makes the consumers happy, but they worked too hard divvying up the old soviet system to let him mess it up.

What about India vs Pakistan? The old hatreds are still there and both sides have nuclear weapons.
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