THE Crude Oil Price Watch Thread

[OilFinder2]

How many times on this forum have doomers said that as soon as the economy starts growing again the price of oil would skyrocket?

If I had a dime for every time someone here said that, I'd be rich.

And yet . . .

LINK

Strong GDP Number Unable to Lift Crude Above $73
by Nancy Agin | Rigzone | Friday, January 29, 2010

Closing the month in negative territory, U.S. crude oil futures extended losses below $73 on the New York Mercantile Exchange Friday as still-lackluster demand, bloated inventories and a triumphant greenback continued to put pressure on the energy commodity.

Down 75 cents from yesterday's final price tag, the price of light, sweet crude oil for March delivery ultimately settled at $72.89 a barrel. Friday's session wraps up a month of peak highs and lows for crude's current trading range between $70-$80, but today's lower settlement underscores the biggest monthly percentage loss for oil prices since December 2008.

[...]

[Geodesic]

Looks like a $ rally for the next few weeks or months (because the rest of the world (Greece, Dubai, UK, Spain etc) is looking uglier again should depress commodities into the spring. But then my crystal ball sees another reversal. Never a dull moment.

[Geodesic]

I am shocked at how few of the doomers are still blowing the horn on here since there has never been a time since I started posting here five years ago when sudden doom has been closer at hand. I am hoping it is not because they are unable to do so.

Because it's not the doom we were expecting. Hyperinflation is the only sudden doom that awaits us (besides WWIII with Iran or NK which is nothing new for us to be paranoid about).

Hyperinflation != peak oil.

ETA for hyperinflation: 2012-2014. Doesn't happen over night.

[lowem]

Now that oil has hit $82, I'm looking out for a top. The obvious near-term resistance is the $84 level some weeks back in Jan 2010 and if you draw a line back far enough you could put it down to $85 give or take a dollar or so.

The stochs are above 80 but that doesn't mean they couldn't go up just a little bit more. Let's see if this rally fades at +/- $85 or if it goes to the next level at $90.

[whereagles]

mid 80s now.. steady as she goes, mr sulu

[OilFinder2]

Get ready for triple-digit oil again soon

Oil prices are already trading at around $80 per barrel when the red ink hasn’t even dried yet on the deepest postwar recession in the largest oil-consuming economy in the world. If oil is trading at this level when world oil demand has actually fallen this year, where do you think oil prices will be when the world’s energy appetite recovers?

Everyone, from OPEC to the International Energy Agency to the US Department of Energy, now expects that to happen by early next year. If so, you can expect to see the return of triple-digit oil prices by next spring. [...]

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/jeff-rubins-smaller-world/get-ready-for-triple-digit-oil-again-soon/article1343977/

Another prediction bites the dust.

[dolanbaker]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/news/business/mar ... traday.stm
Price dropping like a stone right now... down to $70

[GoghGoner]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/commodities/143910/intraday.stm
Price dropping like a stone right now... down to $70

Oil is tracking the equity markets. Demand is more worrisome for the markets than supply. I would guess that this is a correction in the equity markets and before falling too much further, it will stabilize. At that point, the price of oil should resume it's decade long track upward. Those that think that the markets could completely collapse taking the price of oil down with it also could be right.

One thing is absolutely certain, if equity markets go up then the oil price will go up. I believe that limits the upside of the equity markets.

[dolanbaker]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/news/business/market_data/commodities/143910/intraday.stm
Price dropping like a stone right now... down to $70

Oil is tracking the equity markets. Demand is more worrisome for the markets than supply. I would guess that this is a correction in the equity markets and before falling too much further, it will stabilize. At that point, the price of oil should resume it's decade long track upward. Those that think that the markets could completely collapse taking the price of oil down with it also could be right.

One thing is absolutely certain, if equity markets go up and then the oil price will go up. I believe that limits the upside of the equity markets.

Yes I agree, it's only a temporary setback, demand destruction also plays a part in the drop.
Reading in another thread, there appears to be a huge stockpile of oil, bought by speculators hoping for a spike in price, are they offloading their holdings?
Anyway China will soon take up any slack supply.

[mcgowanjm]

$67.62 July Contract.

$29.75 the Target. I said by Xmas.

You let this Extinction Level Event continue
and the Markets could just shut down.

[mcgowanjm]

And I haven't been able to get a read on the BDI lately.

So using Dryships and SEA as proxys, it must be approaching/below
2500 at this point:

DryShips Inc.
(NasdaqGS: DRYS)

Real-Time: 4.39 Down 0.27 (5.79%) 9:40AM EDT

[OilFinder2]

And I haven't been able to get a read on the BDI lately.

So using Dryships and SEA as proxys, it must be approaching/below
2500 at this point:

You are waaaaaay off

[OilFinder2]

^
BTW, from that same website . . .

LINK

How the Hedge Funds Are Calling the Tune on Oil
Written by Mad Hedge Fund Trader

Watching the gut churning $22 plunge in crude (USO) has been fascinating, and gives broader insights into the state of global capital markets as a whole.

[...]

It tells you how meaningless the real physical demand for Texas tea has become in price discovery, and that it is carry trade demand from hedge funds that is really calling the tune. It hasn't helped either that the economic outlook has softened, the contango (the premium that far month futures contracts are trading over front month contracts) has widened enormously to $10.10/ barrel one year out.

[...]

Anyone who thinks the price of oil these days has much to do with actual supply and demand fundamentals is kidding themselves.

[mcgowanjm]

I'm kidding myself! BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Supply and demand are everything. Always.

The disconnect is the AgitProp put out by the PTB
to try and explain the Extreme wealth concentration
and crushing demand simultaneously.

$29.75 by Xmas.

[Pops]

Anyone who thinks the price of oil these days has much to do with actual supply and demand fundamentals is kidding themselves.

The Dollar is strong - at least compared to the alternatives. The Euro is at a four year low against the dollar for example.

The US is still the biggest dog on the block - so money thinks the dollar is the safest bet - so a dollar buys more oil.

Oil might be relatively cheaper by the dollar - as opposed to the Bhat or whatever, forever.

Getting your grubby little hands on a dollar, now that might be a problem.

[Questionmark]

Trading at $81.40 right now. The price has come back up to what it was before the Euro fell.

[Expatriot]

If you want to understand what is happening in the oil markets right now, it will help to compare the below 12 month graphs of S and P and CL. You'll note that crude is tracking the S and P fairly closely, in terms of points of inflection and direction of change.

There is one significant difference - S and P is up 10%, CL is up 23%.

BUT

Both are about the same as they were in November 2009. Which means they've been tracking fairly closely for almost 9 months. I expect that to continue until production declines become steep and obvious, a FF occurs, or another above-ground factor causes a supply problem.

[SeaGypsy]

Anyone been monitoring who is where in the price range guesses from January?

[sparky]

.
I was giving a year close of 66$ , that seems to be off ,the price has been remarkably stable and resiliant up to now
I though there would have been more demand destruction but the new economies have been sucking the stuff like lemonade

[SeaGypsy]

Where is that thread?