THE Earth in 2100 Thread (merged)

[mos6507]

Ok, going postal looks like going on a crime spree to me (or killing spree, to be more precise).

So, not sure what the distinction is. Anyway, never mind. It's clearly too subtle for me.

Not sure what your point is other than semantics. You've said on numerous occasions that you don't believe in zombie hordes. I'm saying people will not be well-behaved when they realize there is going to be a die-off or during the actual die-off. That "extreme" behavior might be a crime spree. It might be suicide (ala George Bailey). It might be hedonism. How they react will probably reflect a lot on their character. But the eagerness to be green and granola will evaporate when people no longer feel such behavior will have any tangible benefit, either to their lives or to their descendants. I don't think I'm really saying anything that controversial.

[Leanan]

This program originally aired on ABC last June, but debuted on the History Channel tonight. It's on now, and will rerun later tonight (early this morning). Or you can watch it online. (Might be for US residents only.)

U.S. experts who have modeled a scenario of the next century predict that if mankind continues on its current trajectory, the world will face a ``perfect storm'' of population growth, resource depletion, climate change, terrorism and disease.

There's a longer synopsis at Wikipedia.

It's a sort of mix of documentary and fiction. Among the interviewees: Michael Klare, Jim Kunstler, Michael Pollan, Thomas Homer-Dixon and Richard Heinberg.

[mos6507]

This will go down in the record books as the most widely seen doomer porn, but yet it still hasn't amounted to much in the way of awareness.

[anador]

Its because it gets all techno, feel good at the end... Whipping up a sense of urgency for 50 minutes, only to say hypercars and "green suburban sprawl" of the future could be made possible by technology.....

It just plays to the business as usual citizen.... a wind-up of entertaining fear, Then a cushy easy to swallow blue pill of relief at the end.

[hillsidedigger]

Most of the problems predicted in 'Earth 2100' are said to occur so many years from now that many people would not be concerned. For example, if i remember correctly, millions of desperate people storming the Southen border of the United States would not occur until 2048. By 2048, I doubt there will be millions surviving South of the border.

[Roy]

I remember seeing a synapsis or summary of the show on ABC's website back when the program initially aired.

The comments section was depressing.

Many of those who commented seemed to blame Al Gore and call it all a bunch of liberal hooey.

And that was before the so-called 'climate-gate'.

I see government doing their level best to sustain the unsustainable. To return us to the debt-fueled orgy of consumption of the last 30 years, at any cost. I see the mainstream media doing their best to convince everyone that we are well on our way back to those halcyon days, and I think many of my countrymen really believe that.

It's easy to see why so many doomers use the metaphor of a train hitting a wall at full speed, when it comes to the future of humanity.

I harbor some hope that financial problems will force some form of austerity here and if we're really lucky, a re-localization of economies and an admission that there are limits to growth on this planet.

I'm starting to see some faint signs of re-localization at a grass roots level, but we have yet to see any sort of admission from the leadership of this country that we need to scale back or do anything but more of the same that got us here -- i.e. Growth is Good!

What did Einstein say was the definition of insanity?

Insanity: doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.

Or as Upton Sinclair once wrote:

"It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends upon his not understanding it!"

[eXpat]

For many the 2100 moment is closer that thought
http://www.chinahush.com/2009/10/21/amazing-pictures-pollution-in-china/

[rangerone314]

Those pictures are close to what I imagine Hell to be like.

[Cid_Yama]

That was what South Detroit looked like before the Clean Air Act.

Now they are trying to kill it.

We all know that big money buys access and influence in politics -- that's a big part of why so few people trust their elected officials to represent their interests, in Juneau or in Washington. Whether the issue is health care reform, Wall Street bailouts or energy policy, those who write the big checks tend to get a good return on their investment.

Sometimes, they even get to get to write their own laws.

That's the troubling appearance for Sen. Murkowski and the big-money lobbyist who helped draft and promote energy legislation on her behalf. According to reports in this newspaper, the Washington Post, and others, powerful energy lobbyist Jeff Holmstead advised Murkowski's office on the exact wording of a failed 2009 amendment that would have rolled back the Clean Air Act, blocking the EPA from imposing greenhouse gas limits on electric power plants.

Now, Sen. Murkowski is considering introducing the same, or a similar amendment, to unrelated "must-pass" legislation.

link

[Newfie]

Here is another spirit lifting site.

http://www.edwardburtynsky.com/

[andersboulanger]

Unfortunately that seems to be the nature of the beast. That is the changing climate and all the environmental challenges we are facing. It's all so depressing that it's easier to stick you head in the sand. I put off watching the Al Gore documentary because of that reason.
We really need to make "Green" pay so all corporations get on board. Wishful thinking.

[yesplease]

This will go down in the record books as the most widely seen doomer porn, but yet it still hasn't amounted to much in the way of awareness.

Or realism. Like most d00m3r pr0n, it contains blatant contradictions. If current trends in population growth continue, there won't be population growth in 2100.

[mos6507]

This will go down in the record books as the most widely seen doomer porn, but yet it still hasn't amounted to much in the way of awareness.

Or realism. Like most d00m3r pr0n, it contains blatant contradictions. If current trends in population growth continue, there won't be population growth in 2100.

I don't necessarily agree that we're headed for the Al Bartlett exponential growth scenario, but the earth can't sustain a steady-state population of what we have now, even with peak oil removed, so only if we start to trend negative really soon now, it's not going to be pleasant.

[yesplease]

Talking about population w/o including average lifestyle is at best insufficient for any productive statements, and at worst disingenuous. Whether or not the Earth can sustain whatever population depends on the impacts of that population on average. The Earth probably can't sustain ~2.5 billion at a 1979 U.S. lifestyle, but that isn't really relevant because there aren't even ~1 billion at the 1979 U.S. lifestyle, and there probably won't be in the future, at least for long.

The big difference between most animals and humans (still animals mind you) is that humans place demands on the environment that are highly variable because they aren't specifically related to the survival of members of the species. That doesn't mean we won't see a billion people living w/ more crap even if it means another ~6 billion have to stop living, but it ain't overshoot. If anything it's closest to interspecies predation.

[mos6507]

I think most of us have seen it already. Remember, this was broadcast to millions of people on ABC. Didn't make many waves, unfortunately, which is what made me MUCH more pessimistic about people ever getting over their denial.

[Ludi]

Didn't make many waves, unfortunately,

I think these kinds of programs don't make waves because of the prevailing attitude of "They will fix it." Folks who watch the show assume "They" are watching it also and will fix the problem.

[Novus]

"They" have watched and "They" have for the most part given up on trying to solve the oil crisis. The solution "they" have come up with is the controlled demolition of the middle class. Poor people consume less energy and that is the way it is going to be.

[Ludi]

"They" have watched and "They" have for the most part given up on trying to solve the oil crisis.

"We've tried nothin' and we're all out of ideas."

[mos6507]

"They" have watched and "They" have for the most part given up on trying to solve the oil crisis. The solution "they" have come up with is the controlled demolition of the middle class. Poor people consume less energy and that is the way it is going to be.

Come on, man. You've been listening to too much Alex Jones. "They" don't know diddly squat about peak oil. What little they do know, they think they can technofix our way out of (based on what Steve Chu has said). The only guy in washington who knows is Roscoe Bartlett and every time he speaks about it, the chamber empties out like it's a prog rock drum solo or something.

[hillsidedigger]

Did any of you responders click on the link?