Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 3 (merged)

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Unread postby TonyPrep » Sat 20 Feb 2010, 03:22:41

shortonsense wrote:
TonyPrep wrote:
shortonsense wrote:What if the company invested 3 barrel equivalents of natural gas energy to get 2 barrels of oil out? They could make money.
Of course it would make sense to the energy company. It makes no sense to anyone else (except you and the cornies), unless that gas is stranded.

From the climate perspective, it makes no sense at all.


I think you missed the point on this one Tony.
How so?

I agree that an energy producing company will always consider the bottom line when making energy development decisions. But it still doesn't make good energy sense to put more energy into producing energy than the energy so produced, even if the company is making a profit in so doing. Of course, there will be occasions when the energy input, or a large part of it, is energy that can't be easily used for useful work elsewhere in society but can be usefully employed in producing a more useful form of energy, even if energy is lost. So, in some cases, it makes sense, but for society, generally, to put more energy into producing the energy it consumes, is not wise and not sustainable.

In terms of the climate, using an energy source that produces greenhouse gases when consumed, to produce an energy source that produces greenhouse gases when consumed is a double climate whammy, and bad news whatever the profit to the producing company is.
User avatar
TonyPrep
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 2821
Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand

Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Unread postby shortonsense » Sat 20 Feb 2010, 10:42:27

TonyPrep wrote:
shortonsense wrote:
TonyPrep wrote:
shortonsense wrote:What if the company invested 3 barrel equivalents of natural gas energy to get 2 barrels of oil out? They could make money.
Of course it would make sense to the energy company. It makes no sense to anyone else (except you and the cornies), unless that gas is stranded.

From the climate perspective, it makes no sense at all.


I think you missed the point on this one Tony.
How so?


The natural gas being stranded, or not, is irrelevant.

TonyPrep wrote:I agree that an energy producing company will always consider the bottom line when making energy development decisions. But it still doesn't make good energy sense to put more energy into producing energy than the energy so produced, even if the company is making a profit in so doing.


Tony, you appear to be teetering on the edge of EROEI heresy, and all because you are coming close to noticing the obvious.... "it still doesn't make good energy sense".......THATS the way to say it. Because it immediately follows what is obvious....companies don't make the decision based on good energy sense, they make decisions based on good economic sense. And its why EROEI is a standing joke in a system which measures value in $$.

TonyPrep wrote:In terms of the climate, using an energy source that produces greenhouse gases when consumed, to produce an energy source that produces greenhouse gases when consumed is a double climate whammy, and bad news whatever the profit to the producing company is.


Well, I suppose I'd worry about climate double whammys the instant the computer modelers can satisfy the science requirements of the geologists, until then, its near impossible to decide what the value, or cost, of a climate double whammy even is.
User avatar
shortonsense
permanently banned
 
Posts: 3124
Joined: Sat 30 Aug 2008, 02:00:00

Re: I.E.A. states we have 9 trillion barrels left

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Sat 20 Feb 2010, 11:08:06

TonyPrep wrote:So, in some cases, it makes sense, but for society, generally, to put more energy into producing the energy it consumes, is not wise and not sustainable.


Currently almost nothing society does is wise let alone sustainable. Society has to live long enough to achieve these; something which is not likely under a 'leave it in the ground' philosophy. Whether humanity outlives society and whether the likleyhood is decreased by AGW factors is another question.
SeaGypsy
Master Prognosticator
Master Prognosticator
 
Posts: 9099
Joined: Wed 04 Feb 2009, 03:00:00

Re: THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 2 (merge

Unread postby Graeme » Fri 25 Jun 2010, 16:23:40

What Peak Oil?

I've been going through the International Energy Agency's new forecast for medium-term oil and natural gas markets, issued yesterday. In contrast to the IEA's warnings of last summer concerning an imminent oil supply crunch, the agency now sees ample supplies to accommodate the level of demand growth it anticipates for the next five years. Yet while this scenario does not envision a peak in global oil supplies before 2015, its components offer ample cause for concern about the growing market power of OPEC and the risk of geopolitical disruptions. It also signals the growing importance of non-traditional sources of liquid fuels, including natural gas liquids (NGLs) and biofuels, which are included in the IEA's oil supply & demand balance.

The headline features of the IEA's oil forecast include continued growth in global oil capacity from 91 million barrels per day (MBD) in 2009 to 96.5 MBD in 2015. This is driven by the growth of OPEC's capacity, the NGL output of a global natural gas expansion that the US shale gas boom has accelerated, and increased production of ethanol and other biofuels. IEA sees this combination as more than sufficient to counteract a roughly 3.5% annual decline in the output of existing oil fields, including a peak and net decline in non-OPEC production within the next year or two. The latter won't surprise anyone who's been following the Peak Oil issue, but it's all the more worrying when you consider that it doesn't include the impact of project delays owing to the on-again, off-again US deepwater drilling moratorium, which the administration seems determined to switch back on.


energytribune
Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
User avatar
Graeme
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 13257
Joined: Fri 04 Mar 2005, 03:00:00
Location: New Zealand

Re: THE International Energy Agency (IEA) Thread pt 2 (merge

Unread postby efarmer » Fri 25 Jun 2010, 22:33:11

The Peak Oil theory has seen subscribers set the due date for doom time and time again or defend that when the petroleum age is graphed against the long time line of human history what exact shape of a spike it will create. (a bell curve blip, an asymmetric thing with wavy top blip, etc.)
It is going to be a blip, of some shape or another and the shape is important for us because we
are drawing some portion of the very top in the space of a human lifetime.

They are good projectors, supply and demand always meet regardless of if they do 5 years or 30.
They just pack unconventional petroleum, renewables, natural gas conversions, etc. on top of the
conventional oil in order to make the projection work, IMHO.

The IEA has to have a geopolitical, technological, and economical perfect game for 5 years
to make this work, having said that, it also suggests that we work at matching the scope and
arrival of dire consequences to match an undulating plateau than to match the swift descent
implied by the simple Hubbert bell curve.

In the grand scheme of things, Hubbert said it was a short spiky thing rather than a long and low slung thing, and I suppose those of us who get to see the summit can add to the knowledge by chiming in:

"Yeah and it has a rippling, bumpy top on it to where you think each dip is the big one until it is."
User avatar
efarmer
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 1998
Joined: Fri 17 Mar 2006, 03:00:00

IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 15:15:37

Has this been covered on this forum already? where?

http://omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/full.pdf
page 57
87.3mpd average for year
88.2mpd average for 4th quarter

And looking at the analysis, it would have still set them without the inclusion of NGLs and biofuels.
Another year, another fail for the 'peakoil is now' gang.

But, this doesn't mean anything to a peaker.
Don't wobble in your beliefs about panic and hype about an imminent oil shortage crisis.
Let JD explain
Now you can have all the fun of hype and scare you had last year ( and year before that, and the decades before that..etc) all over again.

Because now.....
PEAK OIL WAS IN 2010!!!!
And this isn't like all the other times we think peak has happened. This time we really know for sure. There is absolutely no way conventional supply can top 2010. And this is time, it's not like dozens of other years that there's been absolutely no way that supply can go up. Oh no, THIS...IS...IT!!!

Have fun, like this lot...
Image
yeah right, lol
User avatar
meemoe_uk
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 948
Joined: Tue 22 May 2007, 02:00:00

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby vision-master » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 15:37:45

All time high is a good thing? 8O

This means demand is still increasing.

What happens when demand overtakes supply? :lol:
vision-master
 

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby Pops » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 16:02:13

Yea, the avg price looks like it was higher than all but '08 too (aside from the Iranian peak that is), funny how that worked out.

I guess it's just not gonna sink in that peak oil is about the end of cheap energy.

Shrug.
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
-- Abraham Lincoln
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 17642
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 03:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 16:13:58

But . . . but . . . but . . . I thought we were supposed to be past peak??? 8O :shock: :? 8O :shock:

I have just one thing to say: AHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!

vision-master wrote:What happens when demand overtakes supply? :lol:

This was supposed to be already happening by now.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Anti-Matter
Anti-Matter
 
Posts: 9527
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby eXpat » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 16:17:59

meemoe_uk wrote:Another year, another fail for the 'peakoil is now' gang.

But, this doesn't mean anything to a peaker.
Don't wobble in your beliefs about panic and hype about an imminent oil shortage crisis.

Well, well, i see that you are not only a climate change troll, you are a PO troll as well, there you are, is all yours...
Image
"I learned long ago, never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it."
George Bernard Shaw

You can ignore reality, but you can't ignore the consequences of ignoring reality.” Ayn Rand
User avatar
eXpat
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3801
Joined: Thu 08 Jun 2006, 02:00:00

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby sparky » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 16:45:10

.
spoting the peak is good fun and porndoomsters have a nose for rubbing things into
that doesn't invalidate the basic premice of maximum extraction point being imminent
with dire consequences for pretty much everybody
User avatar
sparky
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 3265
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Sydney , OZ

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby TonyPrep » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 16:56:04

As I understand it, 2005 is still, just, the year of highest crude oil production. The 2010 number is about all liquids which includes stuff like biofuels which were produced from almost an equivalent amount of real oil, so it's double counting really.

According to the latest EIA short term energy outlook, the last 7 months of last year saw global stock draws - i.e. production wasn't enough to keep up with demand during that time, which was the back end of a recession for crying out loud. The STEO has last month showing a stock build but then it's initial estimate for many of the now stock draw months was a stock draw.

With all this and the price per barrel of most grades being over $100, I think OilFinder's celebrations are rather odd.
User avatar
TonyPrep
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 2821
Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby Pops » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 17:26:24

TonyPrep wrote:With all this and the price per barrel of most grades being over $100, I think OilFinder's celebrations are rather odd.

Yeah, from the first line of the link:
Marker crudes approached $100/bbl in early January, prompting concerns over the impact of high prices on the global economic recovery


Cheering for whatever political party/sports team/favorite pundit/or in this case, BAU, outweighs events or outcomes in the real world.

It is strange.
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
-- Abraham Lincoln
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 17642
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 03:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby Xenophobe » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 19:07:14

meemoe_uk wrote:Has this been covered on this forum already? where?

http://omrpublic.iea.org/currentissues/full.pdf
page 57
87.3mpd average for year
88.2mpd average for 4th quarter


I said it before, and I'll say it again (being proven right in real time is just SO nice), HOLY COW BATMAN! ANOTHER PEAK!
User avatar
Xenophobe
permanently banned
 
Posts: 1083
Joined: Fri 06 Aug 2010, 20:13:08

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby mos6507 » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 19:47:59

Pops wrote:Cheering for whatever political party/sports team/favorite pundit/or in this case, BAU, outweighs events or outcomes in the real world.

It is strange.


You have a way of putting it so succinctly.
User avatar
mos6507
permanently banned
 
Posts: 9499
Joined: Fri 03 Aug 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Boston Suburbs

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 19:52:17

As I understand it, 2005 is still, just, the year of highest crude oil production. The 2010 number is about all liquids which includes stuff like biofuels which were produced from almost an equivalent amount of real oil, so it's double counting really.


http://omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/17jan06full.pdf
page 49
2005 : total supply avg = 84.1mbpd of which 4.74mbpd was NGL leaving 79.36mbpd conventional crude
2010 : total supply avg = 87.3mbpd of which 7.10mbpd was NGL+bio leaving 80.20mbpd conventional crude
therefore 2010 beats 2005 for conventional supply.
latter numbers from most recent IEA report.

>With all this and the price per barrel of most grades being over $100. I think OilFinder's celebrations are rather odd.
Oil is extremely cheap at $100. Doesn't any peaker even listen to their own oracles? Mat Simmons said a good economically sensible price for a barrel of oil was $4000.
At $100 a barrel of oil, a typical car combustion engine can do the work of around 700 men for just $4.50 an hour. Therefore it's still good economics to use oil.

>Well, well, i see that you are not only a climate change troll, you are a PO troll as well,

It is not my fault the IEA report states higher numbers for 2010 than 2005. Nor my fault if oil is still extremely cheap at only $100 a barrel. Matt Simmons said $100 per barrel was a bargain. I agree.
User avatar
meemoe_uk
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 948
Joined: Tue 22 May 2007, 02:00:00

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby Pops » Wed 16 Feb 2011, 20:19:36

meemoe_uk wrote:Oil is extremely cheap at $100.

I agree.*

Unfortunately, the economies of the world and the US in particular were not designed around reasonably priced oil but around even cheaper oil - like $20/bbl (except for that bit between '75. and '85.)


* I'd pay $25 a gallon to run my chainsaw and walk to get it to boot!
If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen we must live through all time or die by suicide.
-- Abraham Lincoln
User avatar
Pops
Elite
Elite
 
Posts: 17642
Joined: Sat 03 Apr 2004, 03:00:00
Location: QuikSac for a 6-Pac

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby TonyPrep » Thu 17 Feb 2011, 05:41:16

meemoe-uk,

The EIA publishes estimates for crude and lease condensate, no need to try and back-calculate it yourself. Unfortunately, they are always several months behind, so we won't know their full 2010 estimate until next month, I think. However, the 10 month average for 2010 is still behind the 2008 average, which is behind the 2005 average of daily production. The 2005 figure is 73.718 million barrels per day.

They have changed their format for delivering this information, and haven't yet posted February's update, which is a bit lax of them.

Actually, a couple of months ago, I expected the 2010 average to just pip the 2005 average but now I'm not so sure. However, at least the crude oil figure doesn't double count anything.
User avatar
TonyPrep
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 2821
Joined: Sun 25 Sep 2005, 02:00:00
Location: Waiuku, New Zealand

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby Adelaidewonderer » Thu 17 Feb 2011, 06:23:47

2005 : total supply avg = 84.1mbpd of which 4.74mbpd was NGL leaving 79.36mbpd conventional crude
2010 : total supply avg = 87.3mbpd of which 7.10mbpd was NGL+bio leaving 80.20mbpd conventional crude


Well its good to see that a 4% increase in supply, over the 5 year period, only caused a 100% increase in the price of crude over the 5 year period. All someone needs to explain to me , is tell me why i am paying 100% more for my oil, when my income only increased by 20% in the 5 year period. Gee, if my expenditure on petrol has to double every 5 years, i will be using 80% of my income to get to work in 20 years time. But i guess it doesnt matter if i can still buy the petrol.
Adelaidewonderer
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 68
Joined: Mon 31 Jan 2011, 22:29:49

Re: IEA: world set alltime high oil supply records in 2010

Unread postby meemoe_uk » Thu 17 Feb 2011, 06:55:52

>The EIA publishes estimates for crude and lease condensate, no need to try and back-calculate it yourself.
Well it was the IEA ( International Energy Agency ) figures I was
using, not the EIA ( Energy Information Administration ) figures.

Maybe when the EIA release a report we can have another thread, " EIA : world sets all time high oil supply record in 2010 ".
They would make a nice pair of threads at the top of this forum board. i.e. it would send a good hard message out to the 'peak oil crisis is now' gang. Don't you think?

>tell me why i am paying 100% more for my oil
Because the industry is in a state of upheaval as the anglo american majors move into the middle east. This upheaval has been going on since 2001, it is nearly over. I estimate by 2014-15 things will settle down and the price of oil will drop substancially and stay down.
User avatar
meemoe_uk
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 948
Joined: Tue 22 May 2007, 02:00:00

PreviousNext

Return to Peak oil studies, reports & models

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests