AirlinePilot wrote:Actually short I think it has to do more with things like you referring to Orinoco hydrocarbons as "just lying around" as if its as easy as just going out and scooping it into barrels for ever and ever. You also have a very bad tendency to believe that oil production will go up just because it always has in the past. That is not a valid assumption. Period.
But those aren't based on any misunderstandings on my part related to "energy". I referenced the depth of the producing formation in the Orinoco, for all intensive purposes, it is just "lying around" if you can use 2 century old technology to reach it. And I certainly have also referenced the amounts involved, 1/2 trilion + being the current estimate, so by definition this can't be "for ever and ever". Certainly it is BUNCHES, but thats the opinion of scientists and experts, if they had said it was only 100 billion, I would have referenced that, and it is still not "for ever and ever".
As far as production going up in the future...well....the future has quite a bit of uncertainty involved in it, and increasing oil production, in areas which have already peaked once, is quite a common occurrence. That is not an assumption, it is a fact. And because it is a fact, it seems prudent to consider all possibilities in the future with an open mind.