THE Wind Power Thread pt 2 (merged)

[yesplease]

Have you seen some of these windfarms Yes?

I was tooling along south of Amarillo a few weeks back and ran into a huge windfarm down that'a way. Huge. Turbines off to the horizon. I remember years and years ago when I first saw the Mohave farms and thought they were pretty neat, nowadays, these projects are just huge. The people building them nowadays sure ain't thinkin small.

Viva La Transition!

I drive through this one periodically on the way to visit friends/family. They put up a bunch of new turbines at the *end (Nov/Dec) of last year. A few years ago, I went through there and half the farm was lit up w/ spotlights. I think they were filming the helicopter chase scene for MI-III. The IRL version looked much better.

*I'm pretty sure that they, along w/ other producers, do this because this is the only time of the year they get lulls long enough for them to put up everything w/ the huge cranes they need and whatnot.

[yesplease]

From the AWEA, who ought to know: AWEA Q4 and Year-End Report Release

“The U.S. wind energy industry shattered all installation records in 2009, chalking up the Recovery Act as a historic success in creating jobs, avoiding carbon, and protecting consumers,” said AWEA CEO Denise Bode. “But U.S. wind turbine manufacturing – the canary in the mine -- is down compared to last year’s levels, and needs long-term policy certainty and market pull in order to grow. We need to set hard targets, in the form of a national Renewable Electricity Standard (RES), in order to provide the necessary stability for manufacturers to expand their U.S. operations and to seize the historic opportunity we have today to build up a thriving renewable energy industry.”

Early last year, before the Recovery Act (ARRA), the industry anticipated that in 2009 wind power development might drop by as much as 50% from 2008 levels, with equivalent job losses. The clear commitment by the President to create clean energy jobs and the swift implementation of ARRA incentives by the Administration in mid-summer reversed the situation. Recovery Act incentives spurred the growth of construction, operations and maintenance, and management jobs, helping the industry to save and create jobs in those sectors and shine as a bright spot in the economy.

So we have reckless piling on of debt to thank for wind making it to this stage.

I never understood the "all debt is bad"" mentality. Somehow spending an extra $62 billion/year on cheap coal due to it's impact on health is fine, but if we offer an up front credit instead of the PTC (distributed over 10 years), both with similar costs, that's reckless...

[sjn]

There's actually something very suspicious with the opening link, it reports jobs lost in wind manufacturing, but compensated for by more jobs in maintainance, whilst financing was "tight":

It's suspicious that more wind turbines require more people to maintain them, do you think that more wind turbines should require fewer people to maintain them? Manufacturing/sales are worldwide, so I'm not sure if a drop in local manufacturing will impact expansion much. Even if we "stall" at ~10GW/year, we'll hit 20% wind power, enough to power 200 million PHEV/EV cars all year, by ~2025-2030.

My suspicion is that less manufacturing of turbines is going to produce less growth in the installed capacity, which as you imply requires a constant growth in maintenance workers without which the installed capacity would be eroded. The outlook isn't a rosy as implied by the OP even despite the robust growth that has occurred in the last year.

Does this sound like a recipe for an increased rate of growth? I'm very much in favour of wind power generation, although I'm of the opinion maximum final capacity is limited by availability of suitable sites, rather than being capable of unbounded exponential growth as some others on this site have claimed.

Who said wind power was capable of unbounded exponential growth? Anyhoo, nothing is, it's a total red herring. Whether or not wind continues to grow past ~10GW/year really depends on renewable mandates and the PTC. Credit's big, but not as big as those two AFAIK.

It may be a red herring, but it isn't mine, those who have argued the growth is (effectively) unbounded and used it as a proof for the insignificance of PO know who they are. The outlook going forward depends on multiple factors including those you've noted and the ability to continue fund ongoing maintenance and grid upgrades.

I do however think there may be some significance to these two differing reports on the rate of capacity expansion, perhaps there's more on paper (planned/approved expansion) than actually took place due to the reported contraction in the manufacturing of turbines?

Fer sure there's some significance. One included all of 2009, the other didn't include all of 2009. No one counts anything until it's up AFAIK, it's just that the earlier report missed the usual push in installed capacity at the end of the year.

Fair enough. Let's see what happens going forward.

[shortonsense]

Have you seen some of these windfarms Yes?

I was tooling along south of Amarillo a few weeks back and ran into a huge windfarm down that'a way. Huge. Turbines off to the horizon. I remember years and years ago when I first saw the Mohave farms and thought they were pretty neat, nowadays, these projects are just huge. The people building them nowadays sure ain't thinkin small.

Viva La Transition!

I drive through this one periodically on the way to visit friends/family. They put up a bunch of new turbines at the *end (Nov/Dec) of last year. A few years ago, I went through there and half the farm was lit up w/ spotlights. I think they were filming the helicopter chase scene for MI-III. The IRL version looked much better.

This is the one I bumped into.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roscoe_Wind_Farm

Anyone claiming that these things can't pump out enough power to matter really need to spend an hour or two driving one from end to end.

[pstarr]

Have you seen some of these windfarms Yes?

I was tooling along south of Amarillo a few weeks back and ran into a huge windfarm down that'a way. Huge. Turbines off to the horizon. I remember years and years ago when I first saw the Mohave farms and thought they were pretty neat, nowadays, these projects are just huge. The people building them nowadays sure ain't thinkin small.

Viva La Transition!

I drive through this one periodically on the way to visit friends/family. They put up a bunch of new turbines at the *end (Nov/Dec) of last year. A few years ago, I went through there and half the farm was lit up w/ spotlights. I think they were filming the helicopter chase scene for MI-III. The IRL version looked much better.

This is the one I bumped into.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roscoe_Wind_Farm

Anyone claiming that these things can't pump out enough power to matter really need to spend an hour or two driving one from end to end.

It depends on what you mean by "matters." It would take 1,000 to equal a 1 coal-fired plant. Guess which cost more?

But then you'd still need the coal-fired plant when the wind isn't blowing.

Or a national grid

[shortonsense]

Anyone claiming that these things can't pump out enough power to matter really need to spend an hour or two driving one from end to end.

It depends on what you mean by "matters." It would take 1,000 to equal a 1 coal-fired plant. Guess which cost more?

What do I care? Whether its 5 cents/kwh or 20 cents/kwh, the range is within reason for what people in America are willing, and do, pay for their electricity every day of the week.

But then you'd still need the coal-fired plant when the wind isn't blowing.

Have you ever spent ANY time in that part of Texas? They build them where they do for a reason.

The Great Plains...Saudi Arabia of Wind!

[pstarr]

Anyone claiming that these things can't pump out enough power to matter really need to spend an hour or two driving one from end to end.

It depends on what you mean by "matters." It would take 1,000 to equal a 1 coal-fired plant. Guess which cost more?

What do I care? Whether its 5 cents/kwh or 20 cents/kwh, the range is within reason for what people in America are willing, and do, pay for their electricity every day of the week.

But then you'd still need the coal-fired plant when the wind isn't blowing.

Have you ever spent ANY time in that part of Texas? They build them where they do for a reason.

The Great Plains...Saudi Arabia of Wind!

And once again . . . and again. . . how does more electricity mitigate the current peaking and plateau?

And before you repeat your tiresome canard. . . . can you name an acquaintance who actually owns and drives an electric car? No? That is because they are not products. They are concepts. (I do not consider a Prius an electric car. It is a sales promotion.)

Wait! Do you actually know anyone who even owns a Prius? I'll bet not How about you Camaro-driving wife? Is she about to drive an electric car? Doubt it. You expect everyone else to carry the load, Short.

I HAVE SOLAR PANELS ON MY ROOF AND YOU ARE A PHONY.

[shortonsense]

But then you'd still need the coal-fired plant when the wind isn't blowing.

Have you ever spent ANY time in that part of Texas? They build them where they do for a reason.

The Great Plains...Saudi Arabia of Wind!

And once again . . . and again. . . how does more electricity mitigate the current peaking and plateau?

And before you repeat your tiresome canard. . . . can you name an acquaintance who actually owns and drives an electric car? No?

Actually, I know DOZENS of people who drive electric cars, which are charged both during the day from solar panels, and by night using the usual local coal fired / wind powered system.

And no, I'm not about to tell you why I know so many....continue to believe that just because pickup trucks are the norm in podunk central that those of us in suburbia are as limited in our choices as you.

That is because they are not products. They are concepts. (I do not consider a Prius an electric car. It is a sales promotion.)

I don't know anyone with a Prius. So if you don't want me to count them, that only leaves me with the original couple dozen!

Wait! Do you actually know anyone who even owns a Prius?

Not by name. But there are 2 which I see regularly in the parking lot.

I'll bet not How about you Camaro-driving wife?

While it is quite possible your memory is so bad that you have already forgotten the type of sports car I bought the wife, even if you mean this as an insult, I forgive you.

Is she about to drive an electric car? Doubt it. You expect everyone else to carry the load, Short.

I told her I'm buying the Volt for myself as soon as it becomes available locally. She says to wait a year or two into the production cycle for them to iron out any early production bugs. Whats your opinion?

I HAVE SOLAR PANELS ON MY ROOF AND YOU ARE A PHONY.

I have no solar panels on my roof..... <hanging head in eco-friendly shame>.....but if I buy a Prius tomorrow will I get extra green points to make up for my sins?

[pstarr]

dozens of people? I am calling you out short. Name one car, one brand, one product. I dare you. How many batteries? How many volts? How far do they commute? How many seats? How do they charge these dozens of electric cars? At home? At work? Can they recharge them outside the Olive Garden? Do they drive to the mall in their electric cars? To Applebees. Target?

Or do they only drive down the country lane to the Farmer's Market? You do shop at Farmer's Markets? With your trust-fund buddies?


Ah forget it. Don't answer. I DO NOT BELIEVE YOU

[shortonsense]

dozens of people? I am calling you out short. Name one car, one brand, one product. I dare you.

Sorry. Unlike you, I don't make up my facts, but I certainly don't have to throw more pearls before the swine either. Go do some of that Internt surfing Editing Scientist stuff you claim is your expertise.

Refuse to believe the obvious. Don't use google. Pretend the world is all gas guzzling pickups and nobody except you uses solar panels. Your belief doesn't change the facts, and certainly you have ignored every other fact ever pointed out to you,

I DO NOT BELIEVE YOU

Of course you don't. You CAN'T believe that such things are happening. Billions of dollars invested into windpower, and you can't believe. Volts and Leafs and Clarities aimed and already on the streets of America, and you must turn away from reality, your worldview is so wrapped up in doom and destruction and natural pessimism that acknowledging even the reality around you would devalue your entire belief system, you wouldn't have a bad world to rail against, you couldn't complain incessantly about how awful humans are, you couldn't go to sleep at night secure in the knowledge that your special skills of imitating farmers from the late parts of the 19th century will save you from the coming apocalypse.....otherwise known as the electrification of transport and the greening of energy production. Don't ask me how someone gets so petrified of the world coming our way, or how becoming a farmer solves it, but hey, its a free country, you can believe anything you'd like, and often do.

No one can force you to see beyond the box you have built for yourself.

[pstarr]

No one can force you to see beyond the box you have built for yourself.

Once gain Short I am calling you out on this. You don't know anything about electric transport in the US other than a few numbers in isolation. You have never given this subject a moments thought in the past. Until you decided it is a handy weapon to bash "Doomers" over the head with. Solar means nothing to you and that is revealed in you ongoing ignorance. As usual you lie, distract, and change the subject when called out. A few solar weenies own a couple of conversions and you know no one with an electric vehicle

You do not know anything. So stop acting like a smug know-it-all. You do not seem to know the majors tried and failed ten years ago to develop an electric vehicle market. That GM and Honda had production program and vehicles which lacked for nothing---except a market and an application. There are no magical capacitors, batteries, fusion devices to move an electric car through and between our dispersed American suburban sprawl. (What we really need are high-speed electric trains.)

Where is the national infrastructure? We lack a national grid for windless days, and the same baseload backup. Where are the remote charging points on the national highway system (you can not truck in electricity). Where are the GTL plants? Fischer tropsch failed the Germans.

The local infrastructure is woefully inadequate. There are no commercial charging points, no street plugs for apartment and office buildings and mall parking lots. How many existing gas stations (or homes for that matter) have 420 volt service? WHO HAS EIGHT HOURS TO RECHARGE A VEHICLE? What happens when it dies in the parking lot after work? Run a high-power extension cord out to the parking lot?

You have no evidence or experience to support your contention that peak oil will be mitigated by isolated solar energy installations. Solar accounts for .0001 of our energy and even at 30%/ year growth it would take hundreds of years to make a real impact. You can not show that our transport system is any closer to weaning itself off declining petroleum now, then when I installed my first solar panels.

[yesplease]

My suspicion is that less manufacturing of turbines is going to produce less growth in the installed capacity, which as you imply requires a constant growth in maintenance workers without which the installed capacity would be eroded. The outlook isn't a rosy as implied by the OP even despite the robust growth that has occurred in the last year.

That could be a valid suspicion if you were referring to world wind installations wrt to a drop in world turbine manufacturing, provided there was a sufficiently small backlog in inventory, but for a local market, I don't think a drop in manufacturing by a few percent is a valid basis for suspecting a drop in installed capacity next year. It could happen, but we need more info than just a regional drop, especially since we installed a record increase last year, and still had a lot of excess inventory.

The result was net job losses in the manufacturing sector, which were compounded by low orders and high inventory.

I think it's reasonable to state that manufacturers were overbuilding for 2009, even w/ ~10GW in installs, but whether or not 2010 will exceed 2009 or not is still up in the air IMO.

It may be a red herring, but it isn't mine, those who have argued the growth is (effectively) unbounded and used it as a proof for the insignificance of PO know who they are. The outlook going forward depends on multiple factors including those you've noted and the ability to continue fund ongoing maintenance and grid upgrades.

Whose is it? Where did they post it?

[yesplease]

It depends on what you mean by "matters." It would take 1,000 to equal a 1 coal-fired plant. Guess which cost more?

Coal! $60+ billion/year in externalized health costs, plus whatever cost wrt GCC. That alone would install ~30GW of wind/year, enough to reach ~700+GW of wind, producing more electricity than coal currently does. I'm sure that the upfront cost of generating electricity from coal over 25 years would be more than enough to finance a national grid. Hell, it's probably enough to finance ~150+ million ~15kWh battery packs for PHEVs and a national grid.

But then you'd still need the coal-fired plant when the wind isn't blowing.

Not necessarily. People also don't have to use coal to smooth out load, they could use waste/biomass incineration. Devil pointed out that waste could be ~10+% of our electricity, probably enough for load following. Near 100% recycling is nice too.

[pstarr]

It depends on what you mean by "matters." It would take 1,000 to equal a 1 coal-fired plant. Guess which cost more?

Coal! $60+ billion/year in externalized health costs, plus whatever cost wrt GCC. That alone would install ~30GW of wind/year, enough to reach ~700+GW of wind, producing more electricity than coal currently does. I'm sure that the upfront cost of generating electricity from coal over 25 years would be more than enough to finance a national grid. Hell, it's probably enough to finance ~150+ million ~15kWh battery packs for PHEVs and a national grid.

You do don't seriously believe we are going to redirect health insurance or hospital profits into wind turbines? I always had you pegged for someones willing to ignore "externalities" to the free market.

But then you'd still need the coal-fired plant when the wind isn't blowing.

Not necessarily. People also don't have to use coal to smooth out load, they could use waste/biomass incineration. Devil pointed out that waste could be ~10+% of our electricity, probably enough for load following. Near 100% recycling is nice too.

Impossible. 10% of my electricity is actually generated from "biomass" (i.e. wood chips and sawdust). That's because I live in a major wood products region. You wouldn't suggest that Long Island, Miami, San Francisco, Hollywood etc. to run off my few piles of sawdust? I'll bet Devil's ~10% is agriculture waste? But that canard was long buried with thermodepolymerized turkey guts. There is no agriculture waste--it must go back into the soil to replenish carbon and soil tilth.

[JustaGirl]

The local infrastructure is woefully inadequate. There are no commercial charging points, no street plugs for apartment and office buildings and mall parking lots. How many existing gas stations (or homes for that matter) have 420 volt service? WHO HAS EIGHT HOURS TO RECHARGE A VEHICLE? What happens when it dies in the parking lot after work? Run a high-power extension cord out to the parking lot?

The commercial charging stations are being built now. ECOtality Inc. is putting 11,000 charging stations in 5 states. And who doesn't have 8 hours to charge a car? Do you not sleep?

While I don't know dozens of people with an electric car. I do know one owner of an electric rav4, a small SUV. So, yes they do in fact exist.

That being said, I must concur with you that EV's will probably not save the day. They'll probably be limited to the very rich or those that purchased before decline really sets in.

[shortonsense]

No one can force you to see beyond the box you have built for yourself.

Once gain Short I am calling you out on this.

You can invoke a pentagram for all I care, it is not my job to correct obvious deficiencies in your life experience.

A few solar weenies own a couple of conversions and you know no one with an electric vehicle

I was nearly run down by one. When maneuvering near them, I am now more careful. What is more important, asking the drivers their name as they quietly zoom by ( just to report back to you ), or the fact that they exist in this reality and are quite capable of running over random pedestrians?

You do not know anything.

I know enough to jump out of the way of oncoming traffic, be they powered by an ICE or battery.

You have no evidence or experience to support your contention that peak oil will be mitigated by isolated solar energy installations.

I certainly said no such thing. Peak Oil +5 seems to be running along quite nicely, with booming increases in windpower here in the US, dormant resources like shale gas coming to the fore ( and being noticed on the world stage as we speak ), massive amounts of uncounted and unthought of oil being brought to the worlds attention within the past week, and 2 years past the claimed date of Olduvai Cliff, here you are, still posting on the WWW, run by...ELECTRICITY!

I would venture that the transition is chugging along at just the pace it needs to....how about this for a new idea, JIT Transition. I should write a paper on it!

[shortonsense]

That being said, I must concur with you that EV's will probably not save the day. They'll probably be limited to the very rich or those that purchased before decline really sets in.

A) Considering the natural gas available, at both the domestic and international level, EV's don't have to save the day
B) What decline? If the world can produce more than required, who cares what the amount is, or whether its most recent rate is greater, or less, than yesterdays?

[JustaGirl]

A) Considering the natural gas available, at both the domestic and international level, EV's don't have to save the day
B) What decline? If the world can produce more than required, who cares what the amount is, or whether its most recent rate is greater, or less, than yesterdays?

That could be true, but we are not currently in a position to flip the switch and go to natural gas. I don't believe in a doomer dieoff per se, but at the very least I see a severe depression as we pass through the bottleneck. We must also not forget natural gas is a fossil fuel and will also peak. I honestly hope we would not switch over to another energy source that is also unsustainable.

If you believe oil is finite, then at some point you will have a decline. The only question is when.

[yesplease]

You do don't seriously believe we are going to redirect health insurance or hospital profits into wind turbines? I always had you pegged for someones willing to ignore "externalities" to the free market.

Clearly it makes more sense to spend trillions occupying other countries! But seriously, we're just building wind power at a record pace while coal additions are few and far between. Coal generation is also down.

Net generation attributable to coal-fired plants was down 12.4 percent.

Someone on the forum mentioned that the administration is cracking down had on the major coal polluters too.

Impossible. 10% of my electricity is actually generated from "biomass" (i.e. wood chips and sawdust). That's because I live in a major wood products region. You wouldn't suggest that Long Island, Miami, San Francisco, Hollywood etc. to run off my few piles of sawdust?

It's ~9% for the Swiss, and I don't think they generate anywhere near the volume of waste the USofA does. They even recycle more too.

I'll bet Devil's ~10% is agriculture waste? But that canard was long buried with thermodepolymerized turkey guts. There is no agriculture waste--it must go back into the soil to replenish carbon and soil tilth.

Nope, just household waste and organic industrial/building waste. No agricultural waste AFAIK. In the states, municipal (mostly) waste alone could provide ~5% of generation, and that's only a small fraction of the waste generated.

One is that the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimated in 1988 that municipal waste was only 2% of all waste generated

[VMarcHart]

The combined power generating capacity of new U.S. wind turbines installed last year hit more than 9,900 megawatts, up from a gain of over 8,400 MW in the previous year.

And I did my part.

Please double-check my pre-java math. AWEA states 35,000 MWs installed. The DOE states wind accounts for 1.2% of the energy produced. This thing isn't linear but if we wanted to power today's American lifestyle and consumption --nobody is saying that, but just for the fonzies-- it would require about 3,000,000 MWs of wind. Theoretically, of course, but 1-2,000,000 MWs more would certainly have to be installed across the country to offset when the wind stops blowing in the lower and upper plains.

Sure, tomorrow's smart grid will be smarter than the human brain and will turn off the lights in the closet for us while we drive our smart EVs 2 blocks to Walgreens to grab a gallon of organic ice cream. So there will be savings, but the economy must grow, the population must grow, so let's just say the savings here will be offset by the usage there.

Again, nobody is saying this, but to power the US with wind, we'll need in the upwards of 5,000,000 MWs of wind. That's 3.3 million GE sle machines, and hundreds of miles of new gravel access roads, hundreds of miles of new transmission lines, thousands of tons of metals, concrete, fiberglass, etc, etc. There will be thousands of individuals of the fauna and flora population and Americans individuals displaced, annoyed, injured, and deceased in the pursuit of clean energy.

There’s no free lunch. That’s what I am saying.