Catalog of recent oil discoveries pt 2

[TonyPrep]

I understand that production has decreased since the recession. I wonder why.

Almost every peaker on this board seems to make a big deal out of production going down when demand has dropped. Why is this so hard to understand? Why is it so significant to you?
If there is no demand, why produce more?
Hello, there is a GLUT right now of oil and natural gas. A big glut. Worldwide.
When demand goes up again and supply can then not keep up, I'll pay more attention.

Actually, mine was a rhetorical question. It went down because it's much more expensive to produce than crude oil. Which was kind of my point. If the production rate ever gets to the elevated heights of 3 mbpd, or more, it means oil is hugely expensive and we're in a different kind of world. Maybe.

[dorlomin]

If you look up the definition of unconventional oil you will find that it includes tar sands.

Unconventional. Not crude. So how much conventional oil have you discovered this year?

[Velociryx]

Unconventional. Not crude. So how much conventional oil have you discovered this year?

I hear this question a lot, and have yet to divine its significance.

Why is this important?

If the oil that's found can be produced profitably, then what does it matter whether we call it "conventional," "unconventional" (as I understand it, this includes "any oil found in water"), or "beneath rocks with at least two ladybug's on it, near a bush with yellow leaves".

I mean...the important bit is that it's oil that can be profitably produced, yes?

-=Vel=-

[MD]

Unconventional. Not crude. So how much conventional oil have you discovered this year?

I hear this question a lot, and have yet to divine its significance.

Why is this important?

...

I mean...the important bit is that it's oil that can be profitably produced, yes?

-=Vel=-

It's important in how it competes with other "profitably produced" bits.

The market fungibility of crude oil tends to hide the relevance of comparison between supplies. In other words the supplies that can be compared to WTI vary greatly in production cost, but the market treats them as equivalents, which is why the more expensive supplies appear and disappear from the market based on current price.

Simply put; 20% or so of worldwide supplies come from very old super-giant fields. Much of the production infrastructure for these fields is in place, much of the production is sweet and light and contained within fairly porous rock, therefore the production costs are extremely low.

At the other end of the spectrum lie sands and shales. These supplies require huge investment to bring to production. Several billions of dollars for 50k of daily production, iirc.

Our true difficulty lies in that the top 20% is depleting very rapidly. We can certainly replace all of that, and more, by tapping more expensive reserves, but it will be very difficult as the required economic shifts will be quite severe and disruptive.

[shortonsense]

Unconventional. Not crude. So how much conventional oil have you discovered this year?

I hear this question a lot, and have yet to divine its significance.

Why is this important?

Peakers, Colin in particular, have a tendency to call things "unconventional" prior to not counting it. For example, Colin used to refuse to count any oil which had to be produced in a certain depth of water as "unconventional". Nothing to do with the oil at all, he just didn't like the idea that it would require a jackup or semi-submersible to drill for it, therefore...it was unconventional...and he refused to count it in any total he used in his discovery tables. This is a very smart thing to do if you wish to limit your discovery table to something artificially small, because quite a bit of new discoveries are offshore, so you KNOW by putting a depth limit on it you'lll eliminate lots of new oil.

The same would apply for the light, sweet oil in the Bakken in Montana, the oil is absolutely beautiful,but because the source rock is the reservoir rock, well, we can't be counting those couple of billion barrels either. The tricky part here is that the largest accumulation of actual oil ever discovered by mankind, measured in the trillion + barrel range, is a heavy oil in Venezuela which can be labeled "unconventional" because its API gravity is lower than what Colin considers acceptable.

Think of it as a shell game, called "Hide All The Big Oil Accumulations We Can".

If the oil that's found can be produced profitably, then what does it matter whether we call it "conventional," "unconventional" (as I understand it, this includes "any oil found in water"), or "beneath rocks with at least two ladybug's on it, near a bush with yellow leaves".

I mean...the important bit is that it's oil that can be profitably produced, yes?

-=Vel=-

But of course. But the instant people include all oil, you move the peak discovery year to 1935, there is no bell shaped discovery curve, many of the common mythologies of peak just go right out the window. Its one of those things you discover if you really dig into how the mythology works.

[dorlomin]

Regardless, as for where an additional 146 billion barrels will come from, the answer to that question is quite easy. If you had been paying attention to The Iraq Thread the answer would be obvious:

Chalabi, a former senior Iraqi oil ministry official, believes the country has huge undiscovered reserves on the grounds but no major development projects have been undertaken for more than two decades.

The proven reserves were officially put at 112 billion barrels in 2007 but Chalabi believes the final figure could exceed 300 billion barrels. “Iraq could have this figure, there is no exaggeration in this,” he said.

His view is supported by a Western oil analyst who goes even further by saying Iraq’s real oil potential could surpass that of Saudi Arabia, which controls nearly a quarter of the world’s proven oil deposits.

Colin Lothian, a senior analyst at United Kingdom-based energy consultants Wood Mackenzie, says Iraq has many giant oilfields that have remained undeveloped.

So, there's your additional 146 billion barrels - and then some.

Now where have we heard that name before? Oh yes he is one of the Chalabi clan that was key to the whole neocon Iraq debacle, and the oil is claimed to be in Western Iraq, this claim is been discredited time and again. Kurdistani oil I can swallow, older fields being ramped up, not so much but its credible.

Western Iraq. No.

[Ferretlover]

Text deleted.
If this isn't off topic I don't know what is.

[MD]

Unconventional. Not crude. So how much conventional oil have you discovered this year?

I hear this question a lot, and have yet to divine its significance. Why is this important?

Peakers, Colin in particular, have a tendency to call things "unconventional" prior to not counting it.--snip-- The tricky part here is that the largest accumulation of actual oil ever discovered by mankind, measured in the trillion + barrel range, is a heavy oil in Venezuela which can be labeled "unconventional" because its API gravity is lower than what Colin considers acceptable.
Think of it as a shell game, called "Hide All The Big Oil Accumulations We Can".

If the oil that's found can be produced profitably, then what does it matter whether we call it "conventional," "unconventional" (as I understand it, this includes "any oil found in water"), or "beneath rocks with at least two ladybug's on it, near a bush with yellow leaves". I mean...the important bit is that it's oil that can be profitably produced, yes?-=Vel=-

But of course. But the instant people include all oil, you move the peak discovery year to 1935, there is no bell shaped discovery curve, many of the common mythologies of peak just go right out the window. Its one of those things you discover if you really dig into how the mythology works.

You are either an idiot or a troll. I don't believe you are an idiot, so you must just be a troll.

What a waste of bandwidth...and time.

I categorize you right along side pstarr...both trolls from opposite camps, both wasting time with ridiculous posts.

[Velociryx]

It's important in how it competes with other "profitably produced" bits. The market fungibility of crude oil tends to hide the relevance of comparison between supplies. In other words the supplies that can be compared to WTI vary greatly in production cost, but the market treats them as equivalents, which is why the more expensive supplies appear and disappear from the market based on current price. --snip--
Our true difficulty lies in that the top 20% is depleting very rapidly. We can certainly replace all of that, and more, by tapping more expensive reserves, but it will be very difficult as the required economic shifts will be quite severe and disruptive.

Sure, I get that, but TO this statement, I would say two things:

1) Speaking in general terms, it is false to say that we don't differentiate between relative ease (expense) of extraction between various types of oil. Are we not saying that very thing when we specifically mention that "the tar sands are not commercially viable at $20/barrel, but they are at $80?"

That seems to me to be a specific reference to, and acknowledgement of the fact that getting oil from the tar sands is more expensive/difficult. I'm not sure how else you could interpret such a statement.

2) Speaking in terms specific to this thread...the title specifically is NOT, "How much crude have we found," but rather, an accounting of the various OIL found so far this year, so to differentiate might be a somewhat interesting sidebar, it is by no means relevant to the task at hand...at least, I would not think so.

Anyway, I'm sure my comments will spark a firestorm of disagreement. I'm a corny after all.

-=Vel=-

@ Sense - Yes...I have observed that those who like to say we're going to suffer collapse "any day now," DO tend to discount lots of oil...and it's not all turkey guts and fry vats recycling either (which are silly, of course). But to discount oil found under certain types of rock, or in water, etc, seems...I dunno...the supposed cornys have been accused of "fuzzy logic," but the more I think about it, the "fuzzier" the other side sounds too....

[MD]

1) Speaking in general terms, it is false to say that we don't differentiate between relative ease (expense) of extraction between various types of oil. Are we not saying that very thing when we specifically mention that "the tar sands are not commercially viable at $20/barrel, but they are at $80?" ...

WE might allude to the differences in that way, but when it comes to forecasting price and production, I'm not seeing enough category analysis.

"crude and condensate" cuts a fairly wide swath through the industry. For extreme examples compare bakken crude to gharwar crude. Fairly similar in quality, I think (depending on whar in gharwar), yet completely different production and development profiles. Completely different. The categories that are in place get all muddied and confused too. Unconventional? Why the hell is that even a category?

If you want a rational analysis of where we are in the global crude game, it would be nice to categorize by cost, starting from the massive pressure reservoirs in the mega giant fields then all the way to the heaviest sands or shales. Then start counting up currently available production from each, and future production from each. I'm confident that the results would be enlightening....if we could get the data, of course.

What we get here on PO.com is the extremes, mostly. Either "OMG we're all going to die!" or "Stop worrying there's plenty". Both reactions are equally retarded, in my view.

[OilFinder2]

The utter ridiculousness of this statement is that, by your criteria, any unconventional oil would not be classified as oil, even if it was the highest quality oil in the world. The 40 degree, nearly sulfur-free oil that flows out of the Bakken shale would, by your definition, not be considered "oil" just because it comes from an "unconventional" shale formation. Is light sweet crude not "crude?" What kind of denial would you have to go into to dismiss that one?
But to answer your question, yes, most of these discoveries are conventional oil.

Unconventional. Not crude. So how much conventional oil have you discovered this year?

[dorlomin]

How much conventional crude oil has been discovered this year?

[dorlomin]

Size of discovery: 250 million - 1.4 billion barrels recoverable

From the link you provided as the source

The light hydrocarbon accumulation, with P50 oil and gas potential of 250 MMboe and upside potential of 1.4 Bboe,

<snip>

26 API oil is not natural gas. You lose again. Sorry.

Only if you dont read what was posted. Well let me rephrase that, only if you are capable of pretending to yourself that you never read the original article and the posted quote that was extracted from the original article.

Care to offer a coment on this?

[shortonsense]

"crude and condensate" cuts a fairly wide swath through the industry. For extreme examples compare bakken crude to gharwar crude. Fairly similar in quality, I think (depending on whar in gharwar), yet completely different production and development profiles. Completely different. The categories that are in place get all muddied and confused too. Unconventional? Why the hell is that even a category?

Because it allows the exclusion of a trillion or three barrels of oil from the discovery graph so popular in peaker circles. Gail just published one at TOD this very week....claims to be all discoveries of liquid oil...and it somehow misses the largest oil discovery in the history of the world, and certainly liquid flowing oil.

If you couldn't label it, you can't exclude it. It certainly isn't on this graph.

[mos6507]

Conventional oil matters because it's got the best EROEI and flow rates. Unconventional has the worst and the slowest flow rates. Until that changes, the total amount of unconventional is unlikely to change the outcome of peak oil.

Modern civilization was built on the backs of easy oil. It's fate is ultimately dependent on it.

[shortonsense]

Conventional oil matters because it's got the best EROEI and flow rates. Unconventional has the worst and the slowest flow rates. Until that changes, the total amount of unconventional is unlikely to change the outcome of peak oil.

Seems to have done pretty good in the unconventional natural gas department, based on that alone I'm not so sure its wise to dismiss oil unconventionals out of hand. Certainly some small example, like the Bakken in North Dakota and Montana, has been able to reverse Hubbertian oil declines at the state level.

Full scale development of the world class unconventionals ( versus smaller local examples ) has at least the potential I would think. Of course, I allocate zero value to any claims of EROEI in an industry which doesn't use, has never used, and giggles about it, when it's mentioned.

[OilFinder2]

Two more Brazilian discoveries.

Size of discovery: 400-500 million barrels recoverable
Date: November 16, 2009
Company(s): OGX
Name: Well OGX-2A, Block BM-C-41
Location: Campos Basin, Brazil
API: No information
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: No information
LINK
LINK
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 11.627 billion barrels minimum to 17.165 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 13.484 billion barrels minimum to 14.984 billion barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Size of discovery: 25 million barrels recoverable
Date: November 16, 2009
Company(s): Petrobras
Name: Addition to Marimba
Location: Campos Basin, Brazil
API: 29
Flow rate of test well(s): No information
Estimated production startup date: Close to existing infrastructure, sounds like production could come reasonably soon
LINK

Recoverable running total year to date: 11.652 billion barrels minimum to 17.19 billion barrels maximum
OIP running total year to date: 13.484 billion barrels minimum to 14.984 billion barrels maximum

------------------------------------

Brazil Oil Discoveries: Name - Size - Month/Year
Papa-Terra - 700 million - 1 billion barrels - 12/05
Xerelete - 1.4 billion barrels - 7/07
Tupi - 5-8 billion barrels - 11/07
Golfinho - 150 million barrels - 7/08
Iara - 3-4 billion barrels - 10/08
Additions to Jubarte - 1.9 billion barrels - 10/08
Tiro - 150 million barrels - 10/08
Sub-salt layers of Baleia Franca, Baleia Azul, and Jubarte - 1.5-2 billion barrels - 11/08
Aruana - 280 million barrels - 8/09
Guara - 1.1-2 billion barrels - 09/09
Vesuvio - 500 million - 1.5 billion barrels - 10/09
Caricoa - 681 million barrels - 11/09
Well OGX-2A - 400-500 million barrels - 11/09
Addition to Marimba - 25 million barrels - 11/09

[OilFinder2]

Care to offer a coment on this?

If you're so obsessed with finding out that a discovery might be 10% or 20% natural gas or something like that, do your own research. There will be an appraisal well drilled in this prospect soon. If they provide an oil-gas breakdown I'll be sure to inform you. But I'll help you out from one of those links:

"Together, our four discoveries have opened the Upper Cretaceous hydrocarbon
fairway of the Tano Basin, which includes three principal trends - Jubilee, Odum
and Tweneboa - on the two blocks. With the Tweneboa-1 well, which made Kosmos`
fourth substantial discovery in less than two years, we have preserved our 100
percent success rate for all the exploration and appraisal wells we have drilled
to date offshore Ghana," said Brian F. Maxted, Kosmos Chief Operating Officer.

"Importantly, these discoveries not only confirmed the existence of a giant and
new petroleum system, but have also demonstrated our ability to successfully
explore it and substantially de-risked the sizable remaining exploration
portfolio on the West Cape Three Points and Deepwater Tano blocks," Maxted
added.

"We have been fortunate to make another major hydrocarbon discovery offshore
Ghana. We estimate our four discoveries to date account for a possible
recoverable resource base of several billion barrels of oil and several trillion
cubic feet of natural gas. In addition, there is a risk-adjusted
multi-billion-barrel oil-equivalent exploration inventory on the fairway that we
have yet to drill," said James C. Musselman, Kosmos Chairman and Chief Executive
Officer. "Our Ghanaian assets have gained significant value due to the
successful wells we have drilled to date, and it is likely their value will
increase quickly and considerably as we pursue an aggressive exploration,
appraisal and development drilling program."

[OilFinder2]

My my, aren't we getting edgy? What's wrong - you don't like it that billions of barrels of oil have been discovered so far this year? Bothers you, eh?

How much conventional crude oil has been discovered this year?

I already answered your question. As I did last year, at the end of the year I will post a complete listing of all the year's discoveries in one post. You can scrutinize it then. But since you're so antsy, glancing over my list so far, from what I can tell, I have only 2 unconventional discoveries (including the Venezuelan one) cataloged this year, plus the Occidental Petroleum discovery in California which was described as a mix of conventional and unconventional zones.

In other words, you're getting worked up for nothing.

[MD]

Conventional oil matters because it's got the best EROEI and flow rates. Unconventional has the worst and the slowest flow rates. ..

Define them. Break them down by cost categories. Use a basket of refined products...no, make it a matrix instead.

Show us how much f-ing asphalt we can lay down for gasoline that that won't exist.

Plain as the ass on a goat...fools all.